Redefining the Human-Earth relationship…

Katherine Richardson

Professor og Vice Dean, University of Copenhagen

Chairman for ”Climate Commission”

From: Steffen et al. 2004

Kaufman, Darrell S., et al. 2009. Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science, September 4, 2009

Steffen, W., et al. 2004

Humanity in the Anthropocene

2009

2100?

Climate Change

• We suggest boundary values of 350 ppm CO2 and 1 W m-2 above pre-industrial level

The Congress is sponsored by:

AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Blue:1961-2003

Red:1993-2003

Climate Change

Air temperature

CSIRO

Polar Ice sheets melting faster than predicted at last IPCC

Sea-level rising faster than predicted

Rise of approx. 1 m or more expected by 2100

“much better than expected”?

“Over the past two years, sea levels have not increased at all — actually, they show a slight drop. Should we not be told that this is much better than expected?“

Björn Lomborg “Let the data speak for itself”The Guardian, 14 Oct 2008

Emissions rising faster than predictedRecent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

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10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

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-1)

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30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

2007

SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:

A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61

Observed 2000–2006 3.3%

Ocean acidificationChallenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to function as sink of CO2

• Southern Ocean and Arctic ocean projected to become corrosive to aragonite by 2030-2060

Turley et al 2006

From R. Buddemeier, based on Kleypas et al. 1999

(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)

Updated Reasons for Concern

EU 2°C-Guardrail

Source: H.J. Schellnhuber

17

Uncertain uncertainty

ref: Baer and Mastrandrea (2006)

3 ºC 6 ºC

Why should we stop burning fossil Why should we stop burning fossil fuels?fuels?

Because of their contribution to climate change.

Because of their contribution to climate change.

Because fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions (national security issues,

economic vulnerability of fluctuating fuel prices, energy

security..)

Because fossil fuels are finite resources – oil: 41 years, natural gas: 60 years, coal: 133 years (source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008)

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb/

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Natural gas liquids

Non-conventional oil

Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found

Crude oil - currently producing fields

International Energy Agency: WorldInternational Energy Agency: Worldoil production in the Reference Scenariooil production in the Reference Scenario

64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline

Why fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions.• Proven reserves - oil (source:BP)

Påviste oliereserver fordelt på "politisk region" (BP 2007)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet non-OPEC OPEC

Coal Coal

• Least problematic global distribution of reservesLeast problematic global distribution of reserves• Most problematic for climate changeMost problematic for climate change

Påviste kulreserver pr. region (BP 2007)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet Andre

Natural GasNatural Gas

• 40 percent better than coal for the climate• National security issues.. (Russia, Iran….)

Naturgasreserver pr. politisk region (BP 2007)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet Mellemøsten

EU: Growing import dependency over the next 25 years.

KEY MESSAGE:

Future energy supplies are not

secure...

Danmark’s energy source: world expert in renewable energy but there’s a long way to go!

Danmarks bruttoenergiforbrug i PJ (korrigeret)

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1972 1990 2006 2011 2020

Vedvarendeenergi

Fossiltbrændsel

Energiaftalen

EU's klima- og energiudspil

A double challenge - to reduce energy use and replace fossil fuels as the primary energy source

Rumop-varmning

Elforbrug

Proces(ekskl. el)

Transport

Konverte-ringstab

m.m.

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Energiforbrug 2007 Vedvarende energi 2007

PJ/

år

Anden VE

Vind

Affald

Træ

Halm

Bespa-relser

VEWe have the technology!!

Even the International Energy Even the International Energy Agency says that an ”Energy Agency says that an ”Energy Revolution” is necessaryRevolution” is necessary

Note: In revolutions there are winners and

losers…

Winners understand what challenges the future will bring and are ready to handle them.

In the midst of the COP process…In the midst of the COP process…

A transition to non-fossil fuel energy sources is a necessity and a prerequisite for economic growth in the not too distant

future!

We need to change the way we think and speak about dealing with climate change!

There is also a world after December 2009!!