Recent Trends in the Emerging Hydrogen Economy...Prevent Improve Restore Optimize Energy Cost per...
Transcript of Recent Trends in the Emerging Hydrogen Economy...Prevent Improve Restore Optimize Energy Cost per...
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Recent Trends in the Emerging Hydrogen Economy
Timothy C. Lindsey, Ph.D.
Highlander Innovation Inc.
November 7, 2019
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Hydrogen can be used to supply every energy need in the economy
• Transportation • Central and distributed power• Portable power• Combined heat and power • Carbon free steel
Fuel can be burned
directly or processed through a fuel cell
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Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV)
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Hydrogen + Oxygen Electricity + Water Vapor
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Interest in Fuel Cell Technology is Growing (Again)
• Significant planning and investment took place in the early 2000s
• Fuel cell technologies failed to deliver satisfactory performance and financial
returns for investors
• Technology developers have continued to work to address shortfalls
• Considerable progress has been made toward improving the technology’s performance and reducing costs
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
''With a new national commitment, our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom, so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution-free.’’
…..George W. Bush January 28, 2003
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Advantages of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)
• Fewer emissions• Fast fueling• Range• Performance• Scalability• Future innovation
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Recent Breakthroughs in Fuel Cells
• Reduced overall costs
• Cheaper and better catalysts
• Higher durability
• Higher gas purity
• Better materials
• Renewable hydrogen
According to Morgan Stanley:
“the cost of hydrogen production by 2030 could drop by 70% from current levels.”
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Disadvantages of FCEVs
• Lack of fueling infrastructure - 40 US stations (all in California)• 95% of commercial hydrogen is produced from natural gas and
generates CO2 as a by-product – but that is changing• Fuel cell drive trains are expensive• H2 must be stored at high pressure• Codes and standards for storing and dispensing H2 are
complicated
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Efficiency of Various Drive Trains
Internal Combustion Engine 20%Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 60%Battery Electric Vehicle 70%
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Energy Cost per 100 Miles for Small Vehicles
Gas Engine $8.05-13.851
Tesla Model S $2.74-3.202
Fuel Cell $7.89-10.141
1NREL 20192Tesla Motors Club 2019
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Battery vs. Fuel cell Semi Trucks
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Tesla Semi Nikola Semi
• Unveiled November, 2017• 300-500 mile range• 650 Pre-Orders• Battery weight challenges
• Unveiled April, 2019• 500-700 mile range• 14,000 Pre-Orders• Fueling station challenges
Nikola plans to install 700 fueling stations across North America by 2028
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Recent Developments
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Cummins announces acquisition of Hydrogenics (June 2019)
China announces plans to shift policy from BEVs to FCEVs (June 2019)
Rhein-Main transport authority awards contract to Alstom for
fleet of 27 fuel cell trains (May 2019)
Kenworth & Toyota collaborating on 10 trucks Powered by Toyota fuel cells (Jan 2019)
Nikola unveils first hydrogen fuel cell truck (April 2019)
Recent Developments (continued)
Ford joint venture, JMC, unveils their first semi truck in China (September)
CNH Industrial announces $250 million investment in Nikola (September)
FirstEnergy Solutions, Xcel Energy, & Arizona Public Service announce they will demonstrate hydrogen production at 3 nuclear plants they own starting in 2020 (September)
Carnival to test hydrogen powered cruise ships (October)
USDOE’s H2 @ Scale Approach
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• Japan is leading the way➢Plans to deploy 160 hydrogen fueling stations by
2022➢Will support a fleet of 100 buses and 40,000 FCEVs
• Will be showcased at 2020 Tokyo Olympics• Projects ongoing in EU, US, Canada, South Korea, and
China
Global Deployment of FCEVs is Increasing
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Future Prospects for FCEVs & Hydrogen
• Global fuel cell market was $3.2B in 2016➢ Projected to be $12B by 2022 ➢ Projected to be $25B by 2025
• Global Hydrogen market was $130B in 2017 ➢ Projected to be to $200B by 2025➢ Projected to be $2.5 T by 2050
• By 2050: 400M Cars, 15-20M trucks, 5M Buses
Copyright © 2019 Timothy C. Lindsey. All Rights Reserved.
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Volatility in Hydrogen Markets Since November 2018
Company Recent Developments
Fuel Cell Energy CCS Technology Deployed
Bloom Energy Partnerships with ExxonMobil & Toyota
Plug Power Multiple forklift customers
Powercell Nikola supplier purchased by Bosch
Hydrogenics Purchased by Cummins
Ballard Chinese partnerships
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Volatility in Hydrogen Markets Since November 2018
Company Recent DevelopmentsPrice
Change
Fuel Cell Energy CCS Technology Deployed <97%>
Bloom Energy Partnerships with ExxonMobil & Toyota <89%>
Plug Power Multiple forklift customers +46%
Powercell Nikola supplier purchased by Bosch +435%
Hydrogenics Purchased by Cummins +240%
Ballard Chinese partnerships +98%
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and always will be?”Anonymous
“Hydrogen is the fuel of the future……..