Recent Trends in Marriages in Australia

1. Introduction I n the early 1940s i t was thought that the increased marriage

rates (and birth rates) of the late 1930s and early 1940s might have been transient.1.2 It is true that the marriage rates of the war years could only have been maintained if younger marriage counter- balanced a decline in older brides. The marriages of those years included a large proportion of women who were still single in their thirties and forties-a backlog from the low marriage years of the early 1930s. At the same time, many young women were marrying: these were described as marriages advanced by the war. However, the tendency towards younger marriage has continued and a greater proportion of women now marry. Although below the 1942 peak, marriage rates have continued to be high. The birth rates of those years have also been maintained.

It has also been argued that the increased female marriage pro- portions of the late 1940s and early 1950s resulted in large measure from an excess masculinity at certain ages and could be followed by falling proportions because of an impending male ~hortage.~. Excess masculinity, however, is not the only factor involved; as will be shown, the proportion of both sexes who marry has risen.

1 Report of the National Health and Medical Research Council (Common- wealth of Australia, 1944), p. 19: ‘Since 1932, the crude birthrate has risen substantially, but this has been due to transient factors: firstly to the occurrence of marriages th$ had been delayed by the depression of 1929-1933 and thereafter by a war-time

2 P. H. Karmel, ‘Fertility and Marriages-Australia 1933-1942‘, Econom‘c Record, Vol. XX, June 1944, p. 74: ‘Over the decade 1933-1942 the number of marriages has steadily increased. In the earlier part of the period this was largely due to marriages deferred by the depression, in the later part to marriages advanced by the war. This alone may have brought about the rise since 1934 in the gross reproduction rate even though no rise in inherent fertility occurred. The present relatively high gross reproduction rate may be purely temporary’.

3 Norma McArthur, ‘The Social Implications of Population Trends’, Pro- ceedings of First National Conference of Social We l fare (Australian Council of Social Service, Melbourne, May 1960), p. 19: ‘Just as the waist in the pyramid has contributed to the lowering of the female age at marriage in the past, it is likely to increase it again in the future’.

4 W. D. Borrie and Geraldine Spencer, Australia’s Population Structure and Growth (Committee for Economic Development of Australia, Melbourne, 1%5), p. 23: ‘This suggests that the trend towards higher proportions of young women marrying because of the past male surplus could be followed by falling proportions because of the impending male deficit’.

206

boom” in marriages’.

JUNE, 1969 MARRIAGE TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA 207

In these circumstances, it is important to expose and assess precise marriage patterns. This paper attempts to do so, utilizing the marriage statistics published by the Commonwealth Statistician5 and rates calculated by the writer.

2. Crude Marriage Ra te The crude marriage rate, which is available from 1860 onwards,

provides a useful picture of annual changes when the interest lies in the number of marriages rather than in marriage proportions. Figure 1 indicates great variations, particularly in war and economic depression : a minimum of 6 marriages per thousand of the population in 1931 and a maximum of 12 per thousand in 1942 (see also Table I).

As it relates the number of marriages each year to the total popu- lation rather than to the number of persons available for marriage, the crude marriage rate is an inadequate guide to marriage trends:

TABLE I

Crude Marriage Rates

:do 11 Period I Period I I / I

1861-65 I 1866-70

1876-80 1871-75

188 1-85 1886-90 1891-95 1896-1900 1901-05 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1

8.54 7.42 7.16 7.23 8.11 7.75 6.53 6.85 7.10 7.89 8.86 7.82

1921-25 1926-30

1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55

1931-35

1956-60 1961-65

1966 1967

9.94 9.77 8.29 7.50 7.62 8-31 8.46

I

Yj I lU In1 MI IlSI 0 0 1 811 la1 IUI MI UI DSI on

FIGURE 1

5 Oficial Year Book of the Commonwealth of Australia, published annually; Vital Statistics of the Commonwealth, 1908 to 1910; Commonwealth Demography, 1911 to 1921 ; Australian Demography, 1922 to 1927; Demography, 1928 onwards; Australian Demographic Review, Marriages, published annually from 1965 ; Statis- tician's Report, Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, 1911, 1921, 1933, 1947, 1954 and 1961; Census Bulletin, Nos. 9.1 and 9.3, 1966 Census.

208 THE ECONOMIC RECORD JUNE

the proportion of marriageable peraons in the population may itself change as a result of past changes in births, deaths, marriage and migration. Also the crude marriage rate does not distinguish those marrying for the first time or the age a t marriage, and it is here that important changes of marriage patterns may occur. For example, the crude marriage rate was low in the late 1950s and early 1960s even though the proportions marrying for the first time were high. One must therefore look to measures other than the crude rate to discover changes in marriage patterns.

1880-82 1890-92 1900-02 1910-12 1920-22 1932-34 1946-48 1953-55 1960-62

3. Marriage Rates of t he Marriageable Population

Rates based on persons marrying per thousand of unmarried population (single, widowed and divorced) aged 15 and over have been published f o r the nine peri-ceasal periods from 1880-82 to 1960-62. Separate rates fo r males and females were calculated by the writer for the same periods; rates were also calculated for 1965-67.

39.38 100 63.56 100 48.63 100 36.50 93 55.50 87 44.04 91 37.32 95 48.39 76 42.14 87 45.80 116 55.33 87 50.12 103 54.00 137 58.08 91 55.97 115 41.70 106 44.13 69 42-88 88 71.89 183 70.60 111 71-24 146 64.20 163 66.46 105 I 65.32 134 61.50 156 I 63.07 99 62.27 128

Tom I1 Marriage Rates of the Mamiageable P o p h t w n

I %, single, widowed and divorced aged IS and over 1 Males Females Persons Censal period

Rate Index 1 Rate Index 1 Rate* Index

1965-67 1 68.40 174 1 68-28 107 I 68.34 141

Rat& Index

7.62 100 7.28 96 7.27 95 8-74 115 8.75 115 7.12 93

lo-is 133 7.92 104 7.34 96 8.34 109

*The source is the Oficial Yew Book of the Commonwealth of Australia,

?Average of &year rates around the census. 1967, p. 214, except for 1965-67.

It may be seen from Table I1 that the overall increase from 48.63 per thousand in 1880-82 to 68.34 in 1965-67 was mainly due to an even greater increase in male marriage rates, from 39.38 to 68.40 per thousand; female rates increased only slightly. As will be shown later, the masculinity of the population declined, inevitably reducing the difference between male and female marriage rates. It may also be noted that the marriage rate of the marriageable population increased 41' per cent compared with only 9 per cent for the crude marriage rate, changes in the population structure having masked long-term changes in marriage patterns.

1969 MARRIAGE TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA 209

4. Average Age at Marriage Figures for mean age a t marriage have been published since 1906.

However, median age is a better measure of average age at marriage as the age distribution is severely skewed by elderly marriages. Median age at h t marriage has been calculated by the writer for 1908 onwards (see Table I11 and Figure 2).

In the past twenty years, median age at first marriage has de- clined by 1.92 years for males (1946, 25.71; 1966, 23.79) and 1.42 years for females (1946, 22.59; 1966, 21.17). The difference in median age of brides and bridegrooms has declined from 3.12 t o 2.62 years. Short-term changes in average age a t marriage can be misleading.

TBLE I11 Meci5iu.n Age at Pirst Zarm'age

(Years)

190810 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 194 1-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65

1966 1967

1 Spinsters I Difference Year, of

26.92 23.74 3.18

27.23 24.08 3.15 26-88 23.88 3.00 26-34 23.37 2.97 26.47 23.40 3.07 26.66 23.72 2.94 25.71 22.88 2.83 25.58 22.43 3.15 24-99 22.06 2.93 24.73 21.57 3.16 24.16 21.32 2.84 23.79 21.17 2.62 23.65 21.02 2.63

26.73 I 23.86 2.87

J I mu IUI MI USI nu

FIGURE 2

210 THE ECONOMIC RECORD JUNE

For instance, the increase in median age during the late 1930s was not due to a decline in marriage rates of young women (these were increasing) but to an even greater increase of older marriages, as women who delayed marriage during the depression years married in better times. However, the long-term picture of a reduction in average age at marriage is valid. It will be shown in the next section that the decline in gross difference of age can also mislead. Fewer elderly grooms marry young brides, but young grooms now marry still younger brides.

5. Relative Ages of Brides and Grooms The reduction in the average difference of age between groom

and bride is linked with the reduction in average age a t marriage of grooms. Obviously grooms in their twenties cannot marry brides fifteen years younger than themselves, as do over 10 per cent of grooms in their forties and fifties. Thus since a greater proportion of men now marry in their twenties, an overall reduction in average differeiice in age had to occur, even though there might be no reduction within each age group in the age difference between groom and bride. In fact, the average difference in age between grooms in their twenties and their brides has been lengthening, judging by the proportion who marry into a younger age group. However, the proportion of young brides marrying grooms much older than themselves has decreased (Table IV).

TABLE IV

Brides Marrying Much Older Grooms (per cent of all grooms)

Year. of marriage

1908-10 1911-15 1916-20 192 1-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 194 1-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65

1966 1967

Brides 15-19 Grooms

3 5 1 7 n ~

36 10 35 9 37 10 32 9 29 7 30 7 32 8 26 6 25 5 23 4 22 4 18 3 16 2 14 2

Brides 20-24 Gruoms

30 f 35+

17 5 16 5 18 6 17 5 15 4 16 4 15 4 12 3 11 3 10 3 11 2 10 2 8 2 7 2

Brides 25-29 Grooms

3 5 f 40+

16 6 14 5 15 5 15 5 15 5 13 5 13 4 15 5 15 5 14 5 14 5 16 5 15 5 16 6

The median age of brides of grooms in their twenties has declined by about one year, presumably because so many more young women now marry. In contrast, the median age of brides of grooms in their forties has increased three to four years, presumably because there is more competition for younger brides by younger grooms. This means that there are fewer marriages with great disparity in age, but the

1969 MARRIAUE TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA 211

difference in age between young grooms and their brides has actually increased. As there are so many more young grooms and fewer older spinsters, a smaller proportion of young grooms now marry women older than themselves.

6. Ever amd Never Harried Particulars of the population according to conjugal condition

and age have been recorded a t each Commonwealth census and for all States in the State censuses of 1881, 1891 and 1901. The propor- tions never married a t these censuses are shown in Table V.

In the past thirty years, the proportions of males and females who had never married has substantially decreased, except f o r a small increase for females aged 20-24 in the latest period 1961 to 1966. The proportions of males never married are lower than previously recorded. The proportions fo r females under 20 and 25-44 are also at their lowest since 1881. Indeed, even though the population has increased, there were in 1966 fewer spinsters aged 20-49 and bachelors 25-49 than in 1933. During this century there has been a substantial reduc- tion in the age a t marriage of males, but of greater importance has been the reduction in the proportion of life-time bachelors: now only 10 per cent are still unmarried in their late forties, whereas in 1881 over 25 per cent were still single. For females there has been a return to the younger and more universal marriage of the very masculine mid-nineteenth century Australia.

The census reveals what proportions are married. Calculations based on marriage tabulations and population estimates indicate in which years and a t what ages these marriages occurred.

,

7. A g e Specific Marriage Rates A comprehensive picture can be obtained of age a t marriage,

proportions married and annual variations in proportions marrying by means of age specific marriage rates. These have been calculated for first marriages for males and females in single years of age up to age 50 for the years 1908 to 1966.6 The age specific marriage rates were cumulated according to year of marriage (annual rates) and also according to year of birth (generation rates). As with other age specific rates, the events of a year are set against the mid-year popu- lation of corresponding age although some of those married in the first part of the year would have advanced to the next age and some of those married in the second half would have been an age younger a t mid-year. The consequence is slight irregularities in generation curves corresponding with peak and trough birth years. Irregularities may also result from the use of rounded population estimates and from the arbitrary conversion of the 1908 t o 1920 estimates from

6Using population estimates 1908 t o 1920, in M. J. Holmes, ‘Cancer Mortality in Australia’, Medical Journal of Australia, 1925; 1921 to 1966, Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Australia, Intercmsal A g e Distribution of the Population, January 1967. E

TA

BL

E V

Nev

er M

arri

ed P

ropo

vtio

ns, C

ensu

s Ye

ars

(per

cen

t)

Census en

umer

atio

n A

ge

1881

I 18

91

1 19

01

I 19

11

1 1921

I 19

33

1 19

47

1 1954 '

I 1961

I 1966

Change

1881

-196

6

15-19

20-24

2629

30-34

3&39

40-44

4649

Tot

al 15+

All

ages

I

99.77

86.97

58.73

41.13

32.60

30.63

26.94

52.99

70.12

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

3 5-39

40-4

4 45-49

Tot

al 1

5+

All

ages

99.78

89.05

61.08

40-15

30.69

27.76

23.61

52.91

69.31

99.82

90.44

64.93

44.12

32.10

26.82

23.74

52.06

68.31

95.66

60.41

27.29

13.68

8.71

6.58

4.40

36.99

63.40

99-57

85-40

52-23

31.42

23.06

20.32

19.66

42.68

60.8

1.

95.90

65.15

99.56

87.15

66.0

6 32.58

21.26

16.30

14.66

41.98

57.94

32.82

17.78

11.93

99-16

74.46

36.49

19-59

13-98

12.35

11.59

29.83

50.05

6.87

6.49

38.03

62.4

4

99.06

72.84

33-20

19-18

13.27

10.8

6 10.02

29.80

61-29

97.09

72.02

43.24

24.80

16.35

12.30

9.78

40.52

62.24

96.35

66.4

1 36.49

23.76

18.88

17.66

16.60

35.79

56.21

99.61

87.81

59.65

39.42

30.10

25.50

22.27

49.68

65.23

96.07

68.81

37.59

22.49

17.03

15-12

14-33

34.97

52.81

96-18

69-96

41.33

27.80

21.41

17.02

13.67

40.21

59.6

6

93.12

41.03

14.96

9.63

8.65

9.16

10.40

21.5

0 43.66

93.01

39.46

12.37

7.70

6.5

1

6.59

7.37

21.13

44.67

99.32

76.47

37.87

21.68

16.44

14.46

13.85

32.97

50.05

94.42

51.39

20.9

9 13.75

12.65

12.93

12.63

26.36

44.49

98.69

69-96

29.34

16-17

12.74

10.5

8 9.48

30.55

61.30

91

.80

40.33

12.24

6.84

6.64

5.45

6.93

22.05

44.54

-1.08

-17,Ol

-29.39

-24.96

-19.86

-20.

06

-17.46

-22.44

-18.82

-3.88

-20.08

-15.05

-6.8

4 -3.07

-1.13

1.53

-14.94

-18.86

1969 MARRIAQE TRENDS I N AUSTRBZXA 213

five-year age groupings to single years. As for other generation rates, there is also an implicit assumption that there was no significant differential mortality or immigration. The generation rates, in fact, do not exactly match the census results, but the differences are not so great as to invalidate their use.

(a) Annual Marriage Rates

Total first marriage rates exceeded 100 per cent f o r females from 1936-40 to 1956-60 and for males from 1936-40 to 1946-50 and in 1966 : see Table VI and Figures 3 (a) and 3(b). Part of this statistical anomaly may result from a high proportion of immi- grants being unmarried on arrival and therefore having a higher first marriage potential than the resident population of the same age. However, it is likely that the anomaly is mainly due to a concentration of first marriages in the above periods-a concentration which could not continue f o r ever. Cumulated by year of birth, the total first marriage rate is below 100 per cent. This heaping of

Year, of marriage -

1908-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1 9 6 5 0 1951-55 1956-60 1%1-65

1966

1908-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 1931-35 1936-40 1941-45 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65

1966

TABLE VI A n n u a l F i r s t Marriage Rates

ungir 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

12 14 15 20 23 20 21 31 35 41 49 60 71

106 122 104 131 142 125 146 180 23 1 275 285 274 278

228 281 255 297 284 252 32 1 433 477 467 485 506 536

344 404 360 409 400 362 472 539 567 560 545 53 1 539

x0 Males 292 158 85 345 165 80 322 155 78 331 157 72 305 132 60 294 135 54 379 175 76 353 147 71 329 i28 SS 275 93 42 274 93 35 279 89 34 288 81 31

%o Females 220 91 42 .. .- 253 99 45 220 82 39 231 84 38 -~ 211 71 32 208 69 27 268 94 38 219 83 41 181 63 32 148 48 23 128 40 18 116 34 15 112 31 13

39 36 36 34 29 23 31 37 30 23 17 15 15

16 18 18 17 14 12 16 20 19 14 9 8 7

19 20 23 19 16 13 16 19 18 14 10

7 a

7 9

10 9 9 7 9

11 11 10 7 5 4

Under 50

833 941 884 930 849 791

1,019 1,091 1,075

955 963 W1

1,029

826 950 833 919 879 810

1,043 1,093 1,104 1,078 1,032

983 984

Note: Single year age rates cumulated into 5-year age groups, then averaged into 5-year periods and rounded to nearest thousand.

214 THE ECONOMIC RECORD JUNE

%

CUMULATIVE ANNUAL FIRST MARRlAttI A RATES - MA1 F s

I20 I

1911 1921 1911 1941 1951 1961

FIGURE 3(a) '40x* CUMULATIVE ANNUAL FIRST MARRIAGE

SO

40 - 20 20 -

- 1911 1921 1931 1941 I921 1961 I966

FIGURE 3 (b)

marriages results from several factors : delayed marriages (noticeable in the large group of older marriages in the late 1930s following the decline in marriage rates in the early 1930s) ; shift towards younger marriage ; increasing proportion of all ages marrying. The high level maintained in the past twenty years is a reflection of a prosperous economy, in contrast to the violent fluctuations of the war and inter- war years.

(b) Generat ion Marriage Rates Generation tables show more clearly the increasing tendency

towards young marriage (see Table VII). Of the latest generation, born in the 1930s, over 50 per cent of males and 80 per cent of females were married by age 25. Since the first marriage rate cannot exceed 100 per cent, the increase in young marriages must bring a decline in older first marriages.

8. Mascul ini ty of the Populat ion and Generation Xize We are now in a position to assess the view that increased female

marriage proportions have resulted from increased masculinity of the

1969

Year of birth

1891-95 1896- 1900 1901-05 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30

1936-40 1931-35

1941-45

189 1-95 1896-1!NO 1901-05 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25 1926-30 193 1-35 1936-40 I94 1-45

MARRIAQE TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA

TULE VII

Qelzeration First Narriage Rates

215

Exact age 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

14* 14 19 23 21 20 28 34 39 46 55

121* 106 122 140 128 138 177 204 259 283 273

279 295 314 278 305 407 473 493 509 536

502 493 533 508 530 649 704 753 808 819

X Males 612 760 813 837 850 615 740 801 836 855 601 753 832 866 883 ~.~ ~~. .__ ~~~

608 782 847 876 888 684 822 875 895 905 744 839 897 913 777 866 900 768 860 780

x0 Fcmules 733 814 842 856 8Mi .. . .- _.. -_.

717 782 813 831 842 731 809 851 871 881 743 840 877 894 903 793 867 8% 908 914 848 905 926 934 872 917 934 894 931 929

*Based on 1893-95. Note: Single year age rates cumulated by year of birth, then averaged into

5-year periods and rounded to nearest thousand.

population. This is not acceptable as a long-term explanation fo r the period examined. As may be seen from Table VIII, there was a sub- stantial overall decline in the masculinity of the population aged 20-49 in the period 1881 to 1966, yet female ‘ever married’ proportions rose.

From 1922 to 1934, the annual number of births decreased. It has been argued that this decrease in generation size was an important factor in the increase in marriage proportions of females, since girls born in those years would marry up into a larger generation of boys born two to three years earlier. Conversely, it has been suggested that there would be a reduction in female marriage rates of the generations of the enlarged birth years of the 1940s. However, the increase in female marriage proportions started before, and has been maintained beyond, the falling birth years of 1922 to 1934. On the other hand, the marriage proportions of males born in the 1920s were maintained even though they were, on average, marrying down into smaller generations. The relative marriage proportions obviously depend upon the ratio of the sexes. As observed earlier, as the difference has de- clined the proportions marrying have converged. Unless immigration

TA

BL

E VII

I

Agc

15-1

9 2&

24

25-2

9 3

G3

4

35-3

9 4

04

4

46-4

9

Mas

culin

ity o

f th

e A

ustr

alia

n Po

pula

tion+

1881

18

91

1901

99

-14

10

0.78

10

0.45

10

9.45

10

8.76

99

.12

129.

90

126.

78

104.

46

130.

36

136.

78

11

6-9

4

133.

58

134.

83

125.

41

142.

19

138.

38

130.

66

151.

38

134.

63

134.

69

1921

102.

54

94.5

3 9

5-4

5

102.

49

10

4-4

5

105.

27

107.

09

1911

103.

02

105.

07

106.

52

107.

22

109.

11

115.

14

122.

62

1933

19

47

102.

69

102.

90

103.

97

100.

33

108.

17

98.8

7 10

5.83

9

8-9

9

96.2

8 10

3.51

10

1.48

10

8.28

10

4.99

10

3.07

1954

104.

42

108.

26

109.

66

106.

00

102.

65

106.

04

110.

18

1961

105.

24

107.

63

109.

19

109.

77

106.

06

102.

82

104.

33

1966

104.

98

104.

67

106

* 2 6

107

* 22

108.

27

105.

12

102.

51

Cha

ogs

1881

-196

6

E 6.

24

0

-4.7

8 -2

3.65

-2

3.14

8

-25.

31

-37.

07 ’

- 48

* 87

1969 MARRIAGE TRENDS IN AUSTRALIA 217

greatly increases masculinity, female marriage proportions can in- crease only if male rates also increase.

9. Conclusions The foregoing discussion and tables show a change towards

younger and more universal marriage, particularly for males. The younger age a t marriage of the 1940s which had been considered atypical has been consistently exceeded. No longer ean the 1920s with its lower marriage rates be regarded as providing a ‘normal’ pattern. The proportion married by age 50 is approaching its limit, but there is scope fo r further reduction in age at marriage. Since an increased proportion is married by age 25, there has been an inevitable falling off of persons over 25 marrying for the first time. There have been considerable annual fluctuations in the annual marriage rates, and there was also a heaping of marriages throughout the 1940s and 1950s which could not continue for ever.

No attempt has been made above, other than through passing reference to the birth rate, to indicate the effects of these changes upon society and the economy: it would take many studies to en- compass these. Likewise, only brief reference has been made to immigration. This too, and regional distribution by conjugal condi- tion, merit separate studies.

Canberra GERALDINE SPENCER