Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

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Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI

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Transcript of Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Page 1: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI

Page 2: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

• Simon Mason

Page 3: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

What is CPT?

Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) is an easy-to-use Windows-based

software package for making downscaled seasonal climate forecasts.

It runs on Windows 95+. A

source code version,

which has no GUI or any

of the graphics

capabilities, is available for

other platforms.

Page 4: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

What is CPT?

Specifically, CPT is designed to produce statistical forecasts of seasonal

climate using either the output from a GCM, or fields of sea-surface

temperatures.

The program

provides extensive

tests indicating

forecast

performance.

Page 5: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Simulations on Simulation of Indian Monsoon

Precipitation

• Andrew Robertson

• Vincent Moron

• David DeWitt

Page 6: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

correlations (%) with CPC GSOD daily rainfall amount

1980–2003

coupled uncoupled

Effect of Coupling on Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon

Page 7: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Effect of Coupling on Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon

correlations (%) with CPC GSOD 1980–2003

coupled uncoupled

obs daily rainfall frequency

Page 8: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

AGCM-Based Coupled Modeling at IRI

• Initial Coupled System:– ECHAM4.5-MOM3 Fully Coupled

COLA (Kirtman, Min) Provides ODA

Documented in:

Schneider et al. (2004)

DeWitt (2004)

DeWitt (2005)

DeWitt, Goddard, Li (In Preparation)

Page 9: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Issues with Initial Forecast System

• ODA and OGCM are run at 2 different resolutions• ODA has large salinity drift due to mistreatment of

fresh water flux • ODA system not parallel and historic records are not

set up for operational usage.• Not apparent that direct coupling is best approach

despite fact that it is methodology employed by all operational centers

• Open question whether OGCM based systems are best tool to use for S/I forecasting– Computationally Expensive– Large systematic errors even in ocean only integrations

(diffuse thermocline)

Page 10: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Development Path for Next Coupled Models

AGCM- ECHAM4.5

Ocean Models:

MOM4 –

Postdoc (Galanti)

New postdoc (to be hired)

KKZ – Multi-mode reduced gravity model

LDEO (State Dependent Bias Corrected Models)

CZ(K) ocean

INC ocean

MOM4

Thermodynamic Ocean Models (Donna Lee)

Page 11: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Enhanced Predictive Skill by Selective Coupling

• Dong Eun Lee

• David DeWitt

Page 12: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

NCEP/NCAR ReanalysisEnsemble mean ECHAM 1st month lead forecast

Feedback Parameters

(Wm-2K-1)

Page 13: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

ECHAM forecast 24 ensemble

Ocean Mixed LayerFixed MLD at mean annual cycle (Levitus94)

Climatological dynamics through flux correction

Seager ATM

SSTLatent, sensible heat fluxesand long wave radiation

surface wind velocity,cloud fraction

Off-line SST prediction model

wind stressesfor Ekman effects

Page 14: Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

1st mon Lead 1st mon Lead

Seager heat flux


IRI Introduction

IRI Introduction

IRI Construccion

IRI Construccion

301012-02366-SS-REP-0001 YRE Geotechnical Report Rev 0 · joint venture cpt-68 cpt-69a cpt-69 cpt-70 cpt-67 cpt-66 bh-65 cpt-70a cpt-71 0 40 80 120 0 4 8 12 features (plan) notes

301012-02366-SS-REP-0001 YRE Geotechnical Report Rev 0 · joint venture cpt-68 cpt-69a cpt-69 cpt-70 cpt-67 cpt-66 bh-65 cpt-70a cpt-71 0 40 80 120 0 4 8 12 features (plan) notes

Phil iRI

Phil iRI

Principal Component Regression & Canonical …rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Training/SASCOF12/CPT_Dayone/PCR_CCA...• Climate Predictability tool (CPT) is an easy-to-use software for making

Principal Component Regression & Canonical …rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Training/SASCOF12/CPT_Dayone/PCR_CCA...• Climate Predictability tool (CPT) is an easy-to-use software for making

SyncSort v. IRI

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Appendix B Pre-Design CPT/MIP Boring Logs · 2015. 1. 26. · 10 CPT-33 Data 11 CPT-33 Data Cont. 12 CPT-34 Data 13 CPT-34 Data Cont. 14 CPT-35 Data 15 CPT-35 Data Cont. 16 CPT-44

Appendix B Pre-Design CPT/MIP Boring Logs · 2015. 1. 26. · 10 CPT-33 Data 11 CPT-33 Data Cont. 12 CPT-34 Data 13 CPT-34 Data Cont. 14 CPT-35 Data 15 CPT-35 Data Cont. 16 CPT-44

CPT -2 OFFICE 223 STAIR 2 ST02 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 223 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 29 CPT ... · 2018. 3. 8. · CPT -2 OFFICE 223 STAIR 2 ST02 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 223 CPT OFFICE CPT

CPT -2 OFFICE 223 STAIR 2 ST02 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 223 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 29 CPT ... · 2018. 3. 8. · CPT -2 OFFICE 223 STAIR 2 ST02 CPT OFFICE CPT OFFICE 223 CPT OFFICE CPT

Pan-Africa Component · Predictability Tool (CPT), the Climate Forecast System (CFS) the Multimodal North American Multi-modal Ensemble (NMME), and the Climate Prediction Center of

Pan-Africa Component · Predictability Tool (CPT), the Climate Forecast System (CFS) the Multimodal North American Multi-modal Ensemble (NMME), and the Climate Prediction Center of

JACKS CREEK SF PILLIGAC EAST SF BIBBLEWINDI SF · CptW 701 Cpt 789 CptK 703 Cpt2 700 Cpt 477 Cpt 479 CptL 783 Cpt S533 Cpta 534 Cpt 718 Cpt T759 Cpt 540 Cpt 472 Cpt 708 Cpt 761 Cpt

JACKS CREEK SF PILLIGAC EAST SF BIBBLEWINDI SF · CptW 701 Cpt 789 CptK 703 Cpt2 700 Cpt 477 Cpt 479 CptL 783 Cpt S533 Cpta 534 Cpt 718 Cpt T759 Cpt 540 Cpt 472 Cpt 708 Cpt 761 Cpt

IRI - Greece

IRI - Greece

A Roadmap to Growth - CPT | CPT

A Roadmap to Growth - CPT | CPT

Cpt exam, cpt registration, syllabus, coaching, preparation, cpt test papers

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Historia infor iri

Historia infor iri

Iri (conference)v2

Iri (conference)v2

US CLIVAR Summit 2009 US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard -- IRI, The Earth Institute of Columbia University.

US CLIVAR Summit 2009 US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group Report Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard -- IRI, The Earth Institute of Columbia University.

Introduction 4 - IRI

Introduction 4 - IRI

Vincent Puig IRI

Vincent Puig IRI

INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY · INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY RICHARDKLEEMAN ... INFORMATION THEORY AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY

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Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Ousmane Ndiaye and Simon J. Mason cpt@iri.columbia.edu International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Ousmane Ndiaye and Simon J. Mason [email protected] International Research Institute for Climate and Society.