Recent developments of the commodity prices - HWWI · Recent developments of the commodity prices...
Transcript of Recent developments of the commodity prices - HWWI · Recent developments of the commodity prices...
Recent developments of thecommodity prices
AIECE spring meeting 2017Frankfurt, 4/5 May 2017
Katrin [email protected]
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
page 2
Structure
1. About the HWWI
2. Overview commodity price index
3. Selection of commodities
4. Development of the commodity price index
5. Index Weights
6. Recent developments on the oil market
7. Summary
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
About the HWWI
• Private, independent, non-profit research institute• Founded in April 2005 • Staff: About 18 people with 14 being researchers
(seniors, postgraduates etc.)• Director since 2014: Prof. Dr. Henning Vöpel• Head of departments for “Energy and Environmental
Economics” and International Economics and Trade”: Dr. André Wolf
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 3
About the HWWI
• 5 Research areas, i.e.– IDEAS@HWWI– Labour, Education and Demography– Energy and Environmental Economics– International Economics and Trade– Urban and Regional Economics
page 4Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Overview commodity price index
• gives an overview of the current price trends in primary commodity markets
– important cost factor for consumer countries– important factor in export revenues of developing
and newly industrialising economies
page 5Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Overview commodity price index
• Industry & decision makers of the monetary policy are using the HWWI-index
• is included in statistical databases of national and international institutions
– Figures are calculated weekly and monthly– Historical background: Is one of the oldest commodity-indices
• It is updated regularly with daily figures being calculated once every week and is available on a paid subscription basis.
page 6Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
page 7
Overview commodity price index
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, monthly report February 2017
page 8
Overview commodity price index
Calculated by the Laspeyres-formula
The sum of the prices of the current period is multiplied by the quantities of the base period, divided by the corresponding sum of the base period.
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
page 9
Selection of commodities
only unprocessed or little-processed goods included, thus excluding labour costs and other factors
Availability of international market prices
Commodities subject to market distortions like import-taxes were excluded:
Product strongly influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the EU
Precious metals due to speculation
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
page 10
Index-Weights
Index weights reflect share in total raw material imports of the OECD countries, excluding EU-intra trade
Index 'Euroland‘ weights reflect EU17 imports from third countries (non-EUR17 countries)
Percentage of the individual commodities is adjusted every 5 years based on the total value imported into the EU based
on the OECD market statistics (HWWI Index) based on the import into the EU from other
countries (Euroland Index)
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Index-WeightsWeighting of Commodities and Commodity Groups in the HWWI Index
Index, total (all commodities)2015 = 100
per cent shares WeightsHWWI-Index¹
WeightsHWWI-Index'Euroland'²
HWWI Index, total 100,00 100,00HWWI Index, total excl. energy 16,18 23,34Food total 6,63 9,71Cereals 1,49 2,07Oilseed, oils 2,42 4,60Tropical beverages, sugar 2,72 3,04Industrial raw materials 9,55 13,62Agriculture raw materials 2,32 3,08NE-Metalle³ 4,63 6,63Iron ore, scrap 6,00 3,91Energy raw materials 83,82 76,66
Coal 3,01 3,80Crude oil 80,81 72,87
¹ World imports of OECD countries minus Intra-EU trade, 2015² Imports of EU17 countries from other countries, 2015³ non-ferrous base metals
page 11Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Historical Development of the HWWI- and Euroland-Index
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 17 Q1Total (all commodities) Total excl. energyFood total Industrial raw materialsEnergy raw materials
HWWI-Index US$ monthly average
Quellen: HWWI
Index 2015=100
page 12Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Historical Development of the HWWI- and Euroland-Index
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 17 Q1Total (all commodities) Total excl. energyFood total Industrial raw materialsEnergy raw materials
HWWI-Euroland Index US$ monthly average
Quellen: HWWI
Index 2015=100
page 13Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Actual Development Crude oil 2015
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 14
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
01.01.2015 01.01.2016 01.01.2017
crude oil
Crude oil US$ 2015
Quellen: HWWI
Index 2015 = 100
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 15
9092949698
100102104106108110
01.01.2017 01.02.2017 01.03.2017 01.04.2017 01.05.2017
crude oil
Crude oil US$ 2017
Quellen: HWWI
Index 2015 = 100
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 16
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
01.01.2015 01.01.2016 01.01.2017
crude oil price
Dubai Brent WTI
US$ / barrel
Source: macrobond, HWWI
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
Increasing or decreasing demand: Emerging Markets and China, world economy, outlook unstable
Decreased supply because of OPEC agreement Increasing supply because of fracking in the US based
on the current environmental policy
page 17Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
• December 2016:OPEC and other oil-producing countries agree on a
reduction in production with the aim of increasing oil prices
• January 2017:The targeted reduction in crude oil production has a
stabilizing effect on the crude oil price
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 18
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
• February 2017:In order to eliminate the doubts about the enforceability
of the reduction in the production volume, Saudi Arabia drastically reduces its own subsidies.
However, the prices did not rise as the Fracking-industry used the current prices in the US and is beginning to reuse its unused capacities
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 19
Actual Development Crude oil 2017
• March 2017The prices are based on:• basic reports on full crude oil storage,• further expansion of the fracking capacities • initial doubts about the long-term enforceability of
the OPEC agreement
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) page 20
page 21
Summary
The HWWI publishes the commodity price index
Contains selected commodities
Shows the development of the prices for the selected commodities
Can be combined with other times series to show correlation
Also shows the development of the crude oil price
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Thank youfor your attention!
Visit: www.hwwi.org
Visit www.hwwi.org