Recent developments at CIAM Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
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Transcript of Recent developments at CIAM Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
![Page 1: Recent developments at CIAM Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061618/56649eb35503460f94bb9fa7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Recent developments at CIAM
Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Issues
• Revision of the NEC Directive
• Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
• New GAINS features to model energy efficiency improvements and fuel substitution
• Marginal costs of GHG mitigation in Annex1 countries
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Revision of the NEC directive
• NEC report #6 published in July 2008
• Commission has postponed proposal on NEC until further notice
• New call for tenders for NEC follow-up analysis published – without specific dates for calculations
• New PRIMES 2009 baseline will be released in June 2009; will be used for EC4MACS interim assessment
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Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
• Call for national energy projections – deadline May 31, 2009.For appropriate format: contact Janusz Cofala
• Baseline projection for WGSR in September 2009; traditional GAINS analyses will be complemented by quantifications of impacts by the various WGE Task Forces and Centres
• Set of emission control scenario calculations for EB December 2009
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EC4MACS schedule
• Model documentations are now on the Internet (www.ec4macs.eu)
• Internet consultation on methodology has been started – deadline for comments: June 15, 2009
• Interim assessment (full model chain with recent PRIMES + CAPRI baseline projections): August 31, 2009
• EC4MACS review workshop (together with Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling): October 2009
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Marginal cost curves for GHG mitigation
• GAINS has been used compare GHG mitigation efforts between Annex 1 countries,
• all gases and sectors,
• at detailed technical level (several 100 source categories, 300+ mitigation measures, etc.)
• systems approach (integrated perspective covering demand and supply sectors),
• consistent with UNFCCC 2005 inventories
• Results, input data and an interactive calculator freely available in the public domain:
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
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New GAINS structure for domestic sectorto facilitate assessment of energy efficiency improvements
Separate treatment of Residential and Commercial energy useNeeds distinguished: – Space heating + ventilation + Air conditioning (HVAC)– Water heating– Cooking– Lighting– Large appliances– Small appliances,
Up to 10 climate regions, Flats/Single family houses,Built before/after 2010,For each source category:– Up to 3 efficiency stages – Switch to less carbon-intensive fuels (coal to gas or biomass, solar…), – District heat with CHP instead of local boilers
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New GAINS structure for industrial sectorto facilitate assessment of energy efficiency improvements
- Iron and steel• Raw steel, Finished products, Scrap, Coke oven coke, Sinter, Pellets, Pig iron,
Direct reduced iron, Open hearth furnace, Basic oxygen, Electric arc furnace, Casting, rolling finishing, Thin slab casting, Other
– Non-ferrous metals• Aluminum (primary, secondary), Other metals (primary, secondary), Other
– Non-metallic minerals– Cement (of which clinker), Lime, Other– Chemicals
• Ammonia, Ethylene, Chlorine, Other
– Pulp and paper• Pulp (from wood, from recovered paper), Paper and paperboard, Other
– Other industries
Changes in production structure (e.g., primary vs. secondary metals, clinker content in cement) included in the baseline
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Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps
a) Inventory of ~300 mitigation measures, with technical and economic features
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Mitigation measures ~300 options in each country
Structural measures CO2 measures N2O measures
F-gas measures
CH4 measures
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Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps
a) Inventory of ~300 mitigation measures, with technical and economic features
For each source sector in each country:
b) For 2005: Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
– with activity data from UNFCCC, IEA and national statistics,
– adjust implementation rates of mitigation measures.
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Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps
a) Inventory of ~300 mitigation measures, with technical and economic features
For each source sector in each country:
b) For 2005: Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
c) For 2020:
• Match baseline energy use of IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
- with activity rates projected by IEA modify implementation rates of energy efficiency measures to reproduce IEA energy projection.
• Develop baseline emission projection
- adjust implementation rates of mitigation measures as reported in National Communications.
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Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps
a) Inventory of ~300 mitigation measures, with technical and economic features
For each source sector in each country:
b) For 2005: Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
c) For 2020: Match baseline energy use and develop baseline emission projection
d) Determine further mitigation potential– from implementing the best available (energy efficiency and C mitigation)
measures that are not assumed in the baseline,– considering constraints on replacement of existing capital stock, structural
limits, etc.
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Energy intensity of ethylene production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Australia Canada EU J apan New Zealand Russia Ukraine USA
GJ/
t Eth
yle
ne
2005 Change to 2020 implied in WEO2008
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Energy intensity of ethylene production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Australia Canada EU J apan New Zealand Russia Ukraine USA
GJ/
t Eth
yle
ne
Best practice 2005 Change to 2020 implied in WEO2008
Efficiency frontier
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Estimating mitigation costsThree steps:
1. Determine unit costs for each mitigation option:
– Annualized investments + operating costs – savings per unit of reduced emissions
– Reflect resource costs without transfers (no taxes, subsidies, profits, transaction costs, etc.)
– Alternative interest rates for annualization of investments:
• Social (4%/yr)
• Private (20%/yr)
2. For a given mitigation target:
- Determine least-cost portfolio of mitigation measures (i.e., including upstream effects), through optimization model
3. Cost curves: Series of optimizations between baseline emissions and maximum mitigation case
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Marginal abatement cost curveAnnex I in 2020, 20% interest rate, excl. LULUCF
Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
+7% +2% -3% -10% -16%
200
100
0
-100
-200 +3% -2% -7% -13% -20%
Rel. to 2005
Rel. to 1990
Car
bon
pric
e (€
/t C
O2e
q)
Baseline emissions
Maximum mitigation
case
Technical potential
Market potential(at 20% interest rate)
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An initial implementation
• For largest Annex 1 countries (98% of 1990 emissions), EU27 presented in aggregate
• Based on activity projections of IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 and FAO World Agriculture Perspective
• Key assumptions:– Only currently available technologies– Natural turnover of capital stock, no premature scrapping– No behavioural changes– Domestic measures only– LULUCF excluded for now
• Initial analysis compiled from publicly available information, received only limited review by national experts up to now
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Baseline GHG emissions projectionsfor IEA WEO2008 projection
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1990 2005 2020Yea r
Em
issi
on
s re
lati
ve t
o 1
990
A us tralia
New Z ealand
Canada
Norw ay
United S tates of A meric a
S w itz erland
J apan
A nnex-I
EU27
Rus s ian Federation
Ukraine
Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
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-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
Emissions relative to 1990
Tota
l co
st (
% o
f G
DP2
02
0) 20%
4%
Total costs for GHG mitigation, Annex 1, 2020 for different interest rates (excl. LULUCF)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
Emissions relative to 1990
Tota
l co
st (
% o
f G
DP2
02
0) 20%
4%
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-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%
Emissions relative to 1990
Tota
l co
st (
share
of
GD
P2020)
Total cost curves for 2020 (% of GDP) (10% interest rate, excl. LULUCF)
AUS NZ CA NO US CH JP EU
RU UKR
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Comparison of mitigation effortsfor a 16.5% reduction of total Annex 1 emissions Efficiency vs. equity
AUCAEUJPNZNORUCHUKRUS
Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per-to 1990 capita price % GDP capita
AUCAEUJPNZNORUCHUKRUS
Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per-to 1990 capita price % GDP capita
AUCAEUJPNZNORUCHUKRUS
Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per-to 1990 capita price % GDP capita
AUCAEUJPNZNORUCHUKRUS
Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per-to 1990 capita price % GDP capita
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On-line calculator on the Internethttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at/MEC
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Co-benefits on air pollutant emissionsAnnex 1, 2020
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-15%-10%-5%0%5%
GHG emissions (relative to 1990)
Air
pollu
tion e
mis
sions
rela
tive t
o B
ase
line 2
020
NOxSO2
PM2.5