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PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation Planning especially in NAPA

Development

Paul V. DesankerPenn State University/Miombo Network

(UNFCCC LDC Expert Group; AIACC Project AF38)desanker@psu.edu;

www.africaclimatechange.orgwww.miombo.org

www.NapaPrimer.org

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Inspired by the need for a paradigm shift from impact assessments & top down approaches

Consider a (real) maize study …GCMs …maize models …lots of simulations and output data …2 years later …

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Maize study …

Conclude that maize production and so food security is sensitive to climate variability especially erratic rains – some of the GCMs scenarios projected wetting, others drier conditions ...

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Bear in mind …

GCM scenarios are not predictions! They are projections of what might happen if the drivers of that scenario were in effect ….

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Impacts to adaptation …

That study then recommended adaptation options as follows: Need to adopt drought resistant cultivars Manage water better to withstand erratic rains Switch to crops other than maize

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Now the question is …

Are these conclusions and adaptation options informed by the 2-year modeling study of potential impacts of different GCM projections?

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Need for a paradigm shift …

Clearly we need to look at adaptation differently ….

We still need the impact assessment studies, no doubt, but not to directly inform adaptation (esp those based on multiple scenarios)

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Need for a paradigm shift …

One of the missing pieces is of course how to put the results of the scenario assessments in the context of what might actually happen

The various uncertainties in the climate system and the assessments themselves notwithstanding

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NAPA under the UNFCCC National Adaptation Programme of Action for Least

Developed Countries (LDCs)

Designed to implement Article 4.9 of the FCCC that relates to LDCs

LDC Fund created under the convention with voluntary contributions from Annex II countries

LDCs negotiated this programme and designed the methods for doing NAPAs, etc, with active participation of many experts and agencies

Implemented under the GEF, and has gone from idea in 2000 to full programme by COP-7 in Nov 2002

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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA In summary, we believe you can identify (some)

major needs for adaptation by an informed interaction with stakeholders in relation to their experience and livelihoods

For a given region, we can identify major climate hazards and threats (qualitatively if data insufficient)

Then for major sectors or systems important for livelihoods (or other metric), we can characterize impact potential

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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA

In order to fully describe vulnerability, need to understand the community or system that is exposed – in terms of adaptive capacity

Given the risk of climate hazards, impact potential and adaptive capacity, we can define Vulnerability. And then,

Adaptation is the process of decreasing vulnerability

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PRIVA ...

Participatory … Rapid Integrated Assessment … of Vulnerability … and Adaptation (PRIVA)

Mix of process, tools (such as GIS for data processing and display, and models)

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Conceptual description of PRIVA

Semi-formal description of vulnerability and adaptation

Integrates hazard and risk assessment, functional relationship of systems to climate, thresholds, adaptive capacity etc

Analytical solution likely, but can solve/resolve semi-quantitatively (using participatory approach)

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PRIVA for NAPA (from NAPA Primer, Desanker 2004: The NAPA Primer)

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Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2

Define adaptation to minimize (to zero even) through any of the following: By reducing the risk associated with hazards by manipulating

components of risk (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is outside domain of

analysis for the LDCs) Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the system

dependence on climate (cropping manipulations for instance) By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key determinants such as

poverty, access to financial resources, etc)

Carry out above in a multi-dimensional analysis or less effectively by addressing only one or some of the components

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Applying PRIVA to NAPA Current knowledge and experiences with climate

(variability, extremes etc) sufficient to go through steps using participatory approaches for all LDCs

No expectation that NAPA activities will identify or address all adaptation needs especially long-term needs

NAPA to address the transition period between recent past/present climate and future changed climate

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Current Coping RangeCurrent Coping Range

Climate Change Extremes and Coping RangeClimate Change Extremes and Coping Range

ClimaticAttribute (X)

ClimaticAttribute (X)

Time (years)Time (years)

Current ClimateCurrent Climate Changed Climate?Changed Climate?Transition period –

NAPA domain

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Cascading or nested spatial scales

Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations

For example, apply at national level to identify/select most vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities (“hotspots”)

Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions

Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities) that are easily implementable and address specific communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc)

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Cascading or nested spatial scales

In fact, PRIVA approach can be applied at any scale, from regional, national, sub-regional to community level depending on the stakeholders

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Summary of PRIVA

National level tool for vulnerability assessment

Data include: maps, and spreadsheets with data by various subdivisions including admin districts, basins, etc

Thematic data such as population, land use, land cover, transportation, etc

Models impact models as needed

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Summary of component tools in PRIVA

Data analysis (climate data, etc., Fortran programs, statistical software – IDL/ENVI)

GIS for spatial data analysis and display (Arcview, AWhere)

Impact models – various, biome/crop distribution models, crop models, etc)

Ranking: Multiple Criteria Analysis (e.g. Definite)

Consensus Building approaches

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Comments

Most impact models such as in compendium, are stand alone application suites – not trivial to combine or modify

Most cannot modify/customize

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Next Steps

Development of “PRIVETTES” for specific climatic hazards and sectors

Coastal areas and erosion, flooding Drought Agricultural and Food Security Ecosystem Goods and Services in shared river

basins

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Further information

Desanker, P. (2004). The NAPA Primer. LDC Expert Group, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany, 203p.

Information on NAPA: www.unfccc.int/ldc, www.napaprimer.org and links therein

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The NAPA Primer will be launched at 1 pm, Thursday December 9th, 2004

Room: XXXX, XXX

Refreshments will be served

Desanker, P. 2004. The NAPA Primer. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG), Bonn, Germany, 198p.

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