Queen’s Global MarketsA PREMIER UNDERGRADUATE THINK-TANK

ISIS and the Middle East

Kyle Butler | Allan Lee | Sarah Fadel | Shahaan Azhar 10.29.2014

The Fate of Hegemony in the Middle East

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Agenda1. Religion and the War on Terror

2. Current ISIS Operations

3. Key Players: strategic interests in the Middle East

4. Conclusions & Predictions

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Geographic Breakdown of IdeologiesReligious discrepancies in the Middle East insinuate conflict

Source: The Shia Revival

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The War on Terror: U.S.’ FailureThe United States made a number of decisions which resulted in its failure in the “war on terror”

Ignoring Key Players Ineffective Iraqi Government

Source: Huffington Post

The US failed to deal with two key players

during the climax of the war on terror: Saudi

Arabia and Pakistan Donors from Saudi Arabia have contributed

the majority of funds to Sunni terrorist groups

worldwide In addition Bin Laden was a member of the

Saudi elite as well his father was an associate

of the Saudi monarch Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence assisted

in the evacuation of thousands of top

commanders of both the Taliban and Al Qaeda The US failed to confront both of these players

because they are important American allies Saudi Arabia is a key market for American

arms as well a key source of oil

The US bears a large amount of

responsibility for political turmoil that has

occurred in Iraq US put a tremendous amount of pressure

on Baghdad to complete its transformation

to a inclusive democratic government American officials including Vice President

Joe Biden and Brett McGurk supported

Maliki over other candidates The Obama administration had been

pushing out Maliki since June which resulted

in another rushed appointment of al-Abadi America has tried to rush the Iraqi political

process which has resulted in the poor

results

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Iraq’s LeadershipWill Iraq’s new leadership result in change?

Saddam Hussein Nouri al-Maliki Haider al-Abadi

Source: BBC

Committed vast atrocities

by using chemical weapons

against Kurds and Shia

citizens during his thirty

year tenure Continual marginalization of

Kurdish and Shia population

fueled bitter animosity

between various sects Deposition created an

opportunity for Iraqi Shias

to gain greater control of

the country

Maliki was elected, largely

with backing from the US,

with the goal of restoring

peace between the Iraqi

factions Instead, Maliki took the

occasion to seek revenge

against the Sunni

brutalities by handing over

the majority of legislative

power to Shias This has insinuated the

current crisis as ISIS gains

support from enraged

Sunnis

New PM as mounting

pressure caused Maliki to

resign Abadi has the incredibly

difficult task to rebuild trust

between the Government,

Sunnis, and Kurds Although he belongs to the

fairly extreme Dawa party,

his political stance during

his tenure was generally

more moderate than those

of both his predecessor and

his party Picture of Hussein Picture of Hussein

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ISIS BackgroundBeginnings of the world’s most radical extremist organization

ISIS Origins

Recent Uprising

Originally founded as Al Qaeda’s Iraqi offspring, but has separated due to differences in ideology

regarding use of brutality and force After gaining much influence in the early 2000s, successful American lead strikes as well as local

backlash for ISIS brutality had all but decimated ISIS forces and support As American troops withdrew, ISIS focused on prison breaks to free and recruit terrorists and

Hussein’s ranks of experienced ex-commanders Vision of establishing an Islamic State based upon radical interpretation of Islam among Sunni

majority districts among Iraq, Syria, and beyond

Source: Wikipedia

Took advantage of civil war in Syria to

recruit members and promote extremist

ideology Victories against Syrian government

provided funding, weapons, and battle

seasoned extremists that allowed ISIS to

confront Iraqi military

ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND THE

LEVANT

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ISIS ConquestThe speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard

Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal

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ISIS ConquestThe speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard

Iraq Northern Offensive

Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal

After capturing the major

city of Fallujah in January,

the Iraqi government

halfheartedly fought back

with little success In June, 800 ISIS militants

captured Mosul overnight

defeating 30,000+ Sunni

soldiers ISIS overran Syrian and

Iraqi military bases as well

massacred villages at a

time, destroying the

remaining confidence in

Iraqi soldiers ISIS took advantage of

panic to attack multiple

cities while Iraqi army was

in disarray

Map of ISIS conquests on June 23, with the majority of gains coming after June 5th Mosul attack

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ISIS PowerUnprecedented military and financial resources for a terrorist organization

Key Resources

Source: (Map) Aaron Y. Zelin, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence

Richest terrorist organization with over $1

billion Large cache of US military arms, mortars, and

armored vehicles captured from fleeing Iraqi

army Steady stream of revenue from illicit business

activities o I.e. Smuggling oil and gas, selling

electricity to Syrian government,

collecting tax and ransom o Many new recruits were attracted to ISIS

due to high wages that few jobs could

provideo Money used to buy black market weapons

Areas of Strength

Many battle hardened extremists with experience

fighting against Americans and Assad Fast moving strikes in parallel with suicide attacks

are unpredictable tactics that are hard to fend

against Powerful social media campaign that instills fear in

opponents and attracts recruits that include

foreign jihadists Professionally designed propaganda focuses on

marginalization and oppression of Sunnis by Shia

and has been used effectively to recruit and gain

local support o Extensively uses videos, magazines, and

news to promote ideology

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Current ISIS SituationHalting ISIS and the counterattack

US Action

Source: Foreign Policy, Wikipedia, Vox.com

Obama’s ISIS Strategy Repeatedly stressed “no boots on ground”

policy and stated that the conflict can only be

resolved by Iraqis US and allies have sent over military advisors

and launched coalition airstrikes against ISIS

targets Freeing ISIS held territory will be a long term

endeavor driven mainly by Iraqi forces

Counter Attack 1: Air Strikes

Main Defense Against ISIS Short Term Air strikes has worked effectively in repelling

large scale ISIS attacks Pipelines and refineries targeted to stop main

source of ISIS cash flow Targets also include heavy artilleries and

vehicles that have delivered ISIS game

changing firepower

Counter Attack 2: Local forces

Long Term Solution (6-12 months) Iraqi army is mainly on the defensive but

should hold out well since the majority of Iraqi

held territory is now of Shia majority with

loyal soldiers and tribes Structural changes within the army will be

required to fix corruption, poor training, and

moral before launching offensive against ISIS US currently arming and training fiercely

patriotic Kurdish and moderate Syrian rebels

to fight ISIS

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Turkey

Despite public disapproval, privately Turkey stands to benefit

from ISIS’ existence

Turkey will refuse to cooperate with NATO requests for military

support and access to its military base since ISIS allows Turkey to

absolve itself temporarily from its longstanding troubled

relationship with the Turkish Kurds, including the terrorist

organization PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party)

Turkey may help fight ISIS if a no-fly zone is established against

the Syrian regime, which would eliminate Assad’s strategic air

power advantage over rebels

We believe that Turkey’s desire to stifle Kurdish power outweighs

its desire to see the Assad regime topple and as such, Turkey will

continue to abstain from intervening in the fight against ISIS

Why the NATO nation is unwilling to fight ISIS

Turkey has been criticized for its role

as a bystander

Source: Foreign Policy

Turkey’s Foreign Policy

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SyriaOpportunistic extremists intensify the battle for supremacy

Source: The Economist, BBC

A blessing in disguise

The power vacuum and armed

conflict allowed ISIS to easily

capture vast territory in Syria. There has been widespread

conflict between various Sunni

based rebel groups and ISIS,

although they share the same

goal. The Syrian government will

refrain from directly fighting

ISIS. Instead it will conserve its

resources and wait for

international forces to weaken

the group. As the international coalition

attacks ISIS, the Syrian

government can consolidate its

troops and eliminate other Sunni

groups vying for control Ultimately, the Syrian

government will be an unlikely

beneficiary of the current

conflict

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Saudi ArabiaThe Gulf’s most powerful country remains fearful of reprisal

Source: Financial Times, Huffington Post

Current Operations

Future Actions Long-term effects

We believe that the Kingdom will side with Iran for the first time in its diplomatic history, since

ISIS directly undermines the Islamic beliefs that the Saudi state are built upon

The KSA has been funding Sunni factions to fight against Bashar Al- Assad’s Shia-led government

for the past three years in Syria without much success

Saudi Arabia will only remain impartial with

Iran until the conflict is over. Following the

demise of ISIS, it will once again resume its

plan to debilitate the Shia power Riyadh will also devise a strategy to gain

control of Shia-ruled Syria in order to

prevent the Iranian alliance from forming The Saudi government sees this as an

opportunity to consolidate the region and

extend their powerful influence

The kingdom will continue to support

various groups that seek to defeat the ISIS However, Saudi will refrain from directly

supplying military, logistical, or intelligence-

based resources and assets out of

apprehension regarding repercussions from

ultra-conservative nationals

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IranAn unusual alliance convolutes an already complex situation

Source: Wall Street Journal, The Star

Iran’s mission is to create an

alliance between Shia-majority

countries so that it challenge

regional powers As a result of Iran’s long-term plans,

Iran was the first country to aid Iraq

against the ISIS assault Iran will continue to quell the

extremist threat in Iraq using all

means necessary. It will also

continue to support the Syrian

government against Sunni rebel

groups Iran will likely appear stronger after

this conflict. By helping get rid of

extremist Sunni rebel groups in both

Iraq and Syria, it will be in a position

to further challenge Saudi Arabia as

the dominant player in the region

and will move closer to creating a

Shia alliance.

Iran’s Plan for a Shia Nexus

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The United States in the Middle EastAmerica continues its decade-long struggle to establish stability given its deteriorating status as the world’s Moral Leader

Expected Foreign Policy The U.S. Juggling Act We believe that American policy will be

directed at finding a U.S.-friendly government,

whether democratic or not, especially since

most democratically elected or militaristically

enforced governments in the region

perpetuate extremist Islamic regimes

America will attempt to leverage its

diplomatic relations with key players Iran,

Israel and Saudi Arabia to weaken the Assad

Regime, and ultimately remove the disorder

that fuels ISIS’ operations

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Resolution of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis Survival contingent on Instability

ISIS can only survive as long as there is

disorder amongst its neighbors, but

once that is resolved, the new status

quo will defeat it ISIS itself has no ability to create the

new status quo Iranian Nuclear Crisis

Resolution of Iranian nuclear issue will

be fundamental to order Iranians feel threatened by the U.S.

and Saudi Arabia, so they support

Assad in Syria; they must feel secure

before abandoning Assad regime Reconstitution of Iraq and Syria

A reconstituted Iraq and Syria will be

strong enough to topple ISIS and be

more successful at dealing with similar

groups in the future

The United States must work with regional players to resolve the Iranian nuclear program

How to Defeat ISIS Feasibility

The U.S. continues to be the global

hegemon U.S. can use its influence to achieve

regional order The U.S. has already made

unprecedented moves towards accepting

the Iranian Nuclear Program Obama administration has engaged in

serious and positive discussions with

Iran American Policy can reasonably impose a

loose resolution between Israel, Saudi

Arabia, and Iran Unlike other issues such as the

Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Israel, Saudi

Arabia and Iran seem willing to

cooperate on ISIS In general, the costs of enforcing

undemocratic regimes weaken groups

like ISIS over time. History is on

Democracy’s side in the long term