Quarterly Trends Reportf.tlcollect.com/fr2/416/78279/UNFI_Trends_Q4_2015.pdfQuarterly Trends Report...
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Quarterly Trends Report
October – December 2015
2 Trends Q4 2015
data sources
national distribution UNFI’s Natural Independent Channel compared to Actual Sales
sales October – December 2015 sales of all UNFI distribution centers
SPINSscan Natural Channel sales October – December 2015
3 Trends Q4 2015
table of contents
31 year-end review
25 top new items
36 featured products
15 growth trends
33 looking forward
4 bulk review
bulk review market update
4 Trends Q4 2015
bulk sales
5
nuts 32% seeds 5.41%
cereal 7.79%
baking 7.82%
snacks 9.01% grains 14.72%
dried fruit 10.94%
beans 5.09%
all other 7.8%
6 Growth in capabilities
growing bulk categories all channels
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
nuts dried fruit snacks beans
% growth
% growth
7
• all channels
-8.00%
-7.00%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%grains cereal seeds
% decline
% growth
declining bulk categories
8
bulk market update Nuts (+7.1%): Organic market performed well in Q4
• supply remains tight with many suppliers sold out of this years organic almond (+10.3%) and organic walnut (+2%) crops and limited availability on organic pecans (+8.1%)
• due to availability, the remaining stock of those items may see a rise in cost • organic pistachio nuts (+6.4%) are abundant and of very good quality this year • sales of organic nuts were strong during Q4 but the high cost and retail prices
caused some consumers to choose conventional nuts • export demand for nuts has slowed in China as their economic situation has
slowed consumption drastically • weather may be an issue as the El Nino effect has led to more rain and cooler
weather in California’s growing areas; this could have negative impacts going into growing season
• look for sprouted nuts to become more prevalent next quarter - sprouting increases bioavailability of vitamins and minerals and makes for easier digestion
9
bulk market update grains, beans and seeds grains (-6.5%) • although not officially a grain, quinoa is definitely back to affordable prices • quinoa has high levels of antioxidants and omega-3s and is also gluten free
beans (+8.6%) • consumption increasing due to millennials’ preference for simple, unprocessed foods • a popular substitute for meat
Seeds (-7.6%) • pumpkin seeds dominated seed sales as a great source of protein, zinc, and iron
TOP SELLING BULK ITEMS description pack size east item # west item #
quinoa,og1,white 25lb 0548404 00552 quinoa,og1,red 25lb 0538413 00634
quinoa,og1,tri color 25lb 0500553 00471
beans,og2,garbanzo,chkpea 25lb 0627109 00015 lentils,og2,red,split 25lb 0854000 00033 pumpkin seeds,og2 27lb 0653667 02499
10 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review
Q4 new items driving sales bulk review
Certified Organic Coconut Flour & Coconut Palm Sugar • certified organic, vegan & non-GMO • coconut palm sugar is the most sustainable sweetener in the world
description Pack/Size east item # west item # coconut palm sugar, organic 27 / LB 177739-0 00256
coconut flour, organic 25 / LB 177740-8 00312
11 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review
Q4 new items driving sales bulk review
description east item # west item #
salted, sprouted 162927 47707
salt free, sprouted 162928 47706
Sprouted California Almonds
A growing body of research shows the health benefits of sprouted grains and seeds, including increased digestibility and nutrients
http://wholegrainscouncil.org/whole-grains-101/health-benefits-of-sprouted-grains
description east item # west item # organic sprouted almonds 178004-8 00462
organic sprouted pumpkin seeds 178008-9 00491
organic sprouted mix, mango goji fire 178010-5 00508
organic sprouted mix, wild berry 178014-7 00640
organic sprouted cereal, acai blueberry 178017-0 00645
organic sprouted cereal, hemp & greens
178021-2 00654
Organic Sprouted Nuts, Seeds, Cereals & Mixes
12 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review
Q4 new items driving sales bulk review
Trail Mixes • trail mix continued to soar in the snack category • antioxidant mixes can be a tasty, nutritious, and energy-boosting
snack • consumers continue to create their own mix by adding items
individually to their favorites
description pack size east item # west item #
mix, antioxidant 15lb 177521-2 08608
mix, athletes 15lb 177519-6 08260
mix, double chocolate trek, organic 15lb 177524-6 08774
mix, goji power, organic 15lb 177526-1 09105
trail mix, fruit & nut, organic 15lb 177516-2 04581
trail mix, organic 15lb 177518-8 08178
13 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review
Q4 new items driving sales bulk review
Nuts & Seeds with Organic Flavors • sriracha: hot sauce straight from Thailand • tequila lime: red bell peppers, tequila, and lime with a pinch of salt • apple & honey: cinnamon, nutmeg, and honey with crisp red and
green apples • fiesta taco: classic Mexican flavors like spicy jalapeño and chili powder
description pack size east item # west item #
almonds, buffalo hot wing 15lb 179014-6 01300 almonds, sriracha, organic 15lb 179001-3 01293
almonds, apple honey, organic 15lb 179004-7 01295
pumpkin seeds, tequila lime, organic 15lb 179007-0 01296 sunflower seeds, fiesta taco, organic 15lb 179003-9 01294 mix, sweet & heat trail sriracha 15lb 179011-2 01298
bulk review
holiday recap
14 Trends Q4 2015 – Bulk Review
32% nuts
contribution to bulk sales
• nuts still dominate the bulk category • almonds led the way with more than 35% of the sales • sales driven through the quarter by baking needs and gift baskets • dried fruit (+3%) consumption is at its overall highest level in years, with raisins,
dates, prunes and apricots leading the way
TOP 5 Q4 NUTS description pack size east item # west item #
walnuts,og2,hvs/pcs 25lb 0637843 03544 almonds,og1,raw 25lb 0623702 03507
almonds,og1,diced,btr stk 20lb 0956441 03516
cashews,og2,whl,raw 25lb 0659326 03551 walnuts,hvs/pcs,raw 25lb 0296020 03494
15 Trends Q4 2015
strong growth trends
UNFI natural channel
16 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
tuna good source of protein and Omega-3s, mild flavor, firm texture
sustainable fishing practices
albacore
Henry & Lisa’s Caught on family boats by hook & line, tuna is quickly processed in small batches. With five times more omega-3s than most brands.
Wild Planet Hand packed with no added oil, water, or fillers. Averages 800mg EPA and omega-3s per serving.
Natural Sea White Albacore Tuna is wild-caught, non-GMO certified, and meets sustainable fishing guidelines.
17 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
cashews nutritionally 2nd to almonds: healthy fats & zero cholesterol
extremely versatile - often used to replace dairy
crazy for
Go Macro Organic Cashew Butter Bar and Larabar Cashew Cookie Bar – both contain minimal ingredients and are vegan and non-GMO verified.
Treeline Garlic Herb Cheese saw over 70% growth. This creamy, spreadable, dairy-free, raw, probiotic, non-GMO verified nut spread is for vegans and non-vegans alike.
So Delicious Unsweetened Cashew Milk provided a new creamy, indulgent and shelf-stable dairy-free option. It saw over 50% growth this quarter.
18 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
stevia 200 times stronger than sugar
zero calories with zero GI index - a natural choice for diabetics
sweetened with
Steaz Zero Calorie Raspberry Iced Tea is made with organic, fair trade certified tea and boasts a delicious, tart raspberry flavor without sugar, carbs, or calories.
Virgil’s Dr. Better Zero is an updated version of the original Dr. Better. No calories, carbs, or caffeine. Hand crafted.
Zevia Zero Calorie Orange Soda quenched thirsts across the U.S. The only naturally sweetened orange soda on the market. No calories, sugar free.
Lily’s Stevia-sweetened Dark Chocolate Almond Bar has fewer calories than other 55% cocoa dark chocolates. Made with fair trade certified chocolate, allowing consumers to indulge without guilt. Gluten-free.
19 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
burgers vegetarian & vegan meals are increasingly popular
quick, delicious, versatile & easy to prepare
bring on the
Hilary’s Eat Well Black Rice Burgers and Root Veggie Burgers flew out of freezers. Vegan, allergen friendly, Non-GMO Project Verified and B-Corp certified.
Gardein Black Bean Burgers saw triple digit growth in the SPINSscan Natural Channel. Vegan, gluten free and Non-GMO Project Verified, as well as delicious.
Hot Dang Grain Burger Big Tex and Original varieties saw over 80% growth - a new veggie burger option in the freezer.
Sweet Earth Santa Fe and Teriyaki Veggie Burgers are packed with protein and fiber, and low in fat – everything consumers are looking for. They are vegan and Non-GMO Project Verified, too. Plant-based.
20 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
waters new innovations following booming success of coconut waters
add variety to your functional beverage set
plant
Alo Comfort Watermelon Peach flavor is the latest success in the Alo line, posting over 50% growth. It’s packed with amino acids, vitamins, and minerals.
Happy Tree Maple Water provides hydration with half the calories of coconut water. It is rich in B vitamins and electrolytes. Nothing added. Never heated.
True Nopal Cactus Water has half the calories and sugar of coconut water. It hydrates with a combination of antioxidants and electrolytes.
World Waters Watermelon Water utilizes blemished fruit that would otherwise be discarded to make their cold pressed, delicious, water.
21 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
snacks innovative products to help people get more veggies into their diets
a nationwide hit
veggie
Dr. Praeger’s Broccoli and Spinach Pancakes posted impressive sales across the SPINSscan Natural Channel. Offers the crispiness of hash browns with the nutrition of spinach and broccoli.
Earths Best Baked Gluten Free Nuggets, are fortified with iron, zinc, and B vitamins. They were gobbled up by the pickiest eaters. Available in Broccoli & Cheese and Sweet Potato.
Veggie Fries Carrot & Potato Fries and Broccoli & Potato Fries added a new, healthier twist by boasting 3g protein. These fries are gluten free and non-GMO certified.
Veggie Chips from The Daily Crave & Snikiddy Korean BBQ Veggies Chips were wins for the chip category. Both grew over 50%.
Good Health Sea Salt Veggie Straws are packed with vitamins from tomatoes, spinach, beets, broccoli, and carrots. A snack to feel good about.
22 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
hot sriracha exploded in 2015 and continues to tantalize taste buds
sriracha has opened the door for spicy counterparts
some like it
Evol Burritos: Chicken Chipotle Big Burrito, Egg & Green Chile Breakfast Burrito, and Spicy Bacon, Egg, Potato & Jalapeño Breakfast Burrito had consumers covered morning until night.
Red Chipotle Beef & Bean Burrito posted triple digit growth. This spicy burrito option is entirely organic and packs 14g of protein.
Just Mayo posted strong numbers with both their Sriracha Premium Mayo and Chipotle Premium Mayo. Egg, dairy, nut, soy, and gluten free.
Sir Kensington Sriracha & Gourmet Chipotle Mayo varieties were wins this quarter. This is a traditional style of mayonnaise made with cage free eggs and sunflower oil.
Sweet Earth Chipotle Seitan Strips are a protein-rich meat alternative with that smoky, spicy flavor consumers are seeking.
23 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
laundry liquid the soothing, refreshing aroma of lavender is a natural for laundry liquid.
lavender
Earth Friendly Ecos Ultra Liquid Lavender Laundry Detergent is a concentrated liquid with a built-in fabric softener. It posted over 50% growth this quarter.
Ecover Lavender Fields Laundry Liquid is a biodegradable, super concentrated formula and that works well even in cold water. Packaged in plastic made from sugar cane.
Mrs. Meyer’s Clean Day Lavender Laundry Liquid 2x boasts a great natural lavender scent that is gentle on sensitive skin; the 64oz size posted triple digit growth.
Seventh Generation Blue Eucalyptus & Lavender Liquid Laundry 2x is tough on stains while gentle on the earth. It’s one of the first to have the USDA Certified Biobased certification (meaning ingredients come from renewable biological sources).
24 Trends Q4 2015 – Strong Growth Trends
entertaining delicious appetizers & compostable, disposable wares
these items often see seasonal sales increases – remember them for upcoming holidays
easy
Antipasto platters overflowed with Divina Stuffed Olives, Jeff’s Naturals Organic Roasted Red Pepper Strips, Maille Cornichons, and Woodstock Kosher Dills. While great at any time of year, an easy, delicious, nearly instant platter can be created straight from the jar in minutes.
Susty Party provided festive Red Party Plates, Repurpose had a High Heat Utensil Pack, and World Centric’s Hot & Cold Cups together averaged over 80% growth this holiday season, allowing for guilt free, easy, post party clean-up.
top new items UNFI natural channel
25 Trends Q4 2015
26 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items
servings consumers seeking convenience
quick, healthy meals or snacks enjoyed anytime, anywhere
single
Bob’s Red Mill Oatmeal Cups are the first instant meal from Bob’s. All are gluten free and contain flax and chia to boost nutrition. Available in Apple Cinnamon, Blueberry Hazelnut, Brown Sugar & Maple, and Classic.
Think! Protein Bites in Chocolate Almond, Peanut Butter, Chocolate Nut & Salted Caramel are unwrapped, bite-sized bars. They are perfect anytime you need an energy boosting snack.
Lilly’s Hummus Roasted Red Pepper Hummus 4 Pack is perfectly portioned in convenient 2oz single servings to provide an instant protein rich snack.
Evol Fajita Cups: Sriracha Queso Grilled Chicken and Grilled Chicken with Beans, Rice & Veggies are made with chicken raised without antibiotics. Gluten free with 10g of protein and 3-4g fiber. This is as healthy as heat and eat gets.
27 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items
mixes busy lives can make it difficult to find the time to bake from scratch
these companies have you covered
baking
Boulder Cookie Paleo! New almond flour based Paleo Pancake, Paleo Brownie, and Paleo Cookie mixes should be in your baking aisle. All are gluten free, vegan, and low glycemic.
Cherryvale Farms Oatmeal Cookie mix is “Make it. Bake it. Love it.” 24 Non-GMO Project Verified, peanut, dairy, and egg free cookies are ready in minutes to cure all of your cookie cravings.
Bella Gluten Free Cookie, Scone, Roll, Biscuit, Brownie, and Pizza Crust mixes are Non-GMO Project Verified cup-to-table mixes that are ready in under 30 minutes.
28 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items
treats consumers want healthier choices, even with candy & chocolate
indulge in the cleanest, purest options on the market
sweet
Simply Gum Available in a slew of flavors, this gum uses only six 100% natural, non-synthetic ingredients. Completely biodegradable.
Cocomels Organic Coconut Milk & Sea Salt Caramels are a perfect mix of sweet and salty with luscious caramel. Artisan made in copper kettles.
Madècasse Dark Chocolate Discs are available in 63%, 70%, and 100% Cocoa. For snacking straight from the bag or use in recipes. Made with heirloom cocoa from Madagascar
29 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items
beverages Innovative companies embrace emerging trends with superfoods: coconut, matcha, turmeric, and sprouted nuts
cutting edge
Malk Pure Pecan Chocolate Malk, Pecan Malk & Cold Brewed Coffee, and Unsweetened Cashew Malk are organic cold-pressed nut milks made from sprouted nuts. Great as a beverage or in favorite recipes.
Uncle Matt’s Organic juice with superfoods in 3 flavors - Orange Coconut, Matcha Lemonade, and Orange Turmeric juices. Coconut provides a good source of iron, phosphorus, and zinc. Matcha is rich in antioxidants, and turmeric has anti-inflammatory effects – no matter what the choice is, it’s a great way to start the day.
30 Trends Q4 2015 – Top New Items
flavors seasonally popular flavors like pumpkin, warm spices, and apples popped in Q4 fall
Way Better Snacks Oh Snap! Ginger Snap Tortilla Chips have pieces of crystalized ginger. Chips are made with sprouted grains, beans, and seeds.
Mi-Del Gluten Free Gingerbread Men offered a spicy option for gluten sensitive consumers this fall.
Noosa Yoghurt Crisp Apple & Tart Cranberries are deliciously paired. And, Pumpkin is a take on traditional pie, mixed with warm, rich spices in yogurt form.
The Honest Co Orange Cypress Scented Soy Candles filled homes with the scents of the season. They are hand poured in small batches with no synthetic fragrances or perfumes.
Tate’s Gingersnap Cookies worked warm, spicy magic on consumers in this quarter.
Cookies for everyone!
year-end review UNFI natural channel
31 Trends Q4 2015
Trends Q4 2015 – Year-End Review 32
TREND
Paleo
Jerky
Grass Fed
Bites & Bars
High Protein Content
Nutrition Bars
Baking Mixes
Nuts & Seeds
Meal Replacement
Drinks
Sriracha
Condiment
Ingredient
Heart Healthy
Oils
Avocado
Coconut
Olive
Omegas, Hemp, Chia &
Flax
Drinks
Cold Brewed Coffee
HPP Processed
Energy Beverages
Plant Waters
Popcorn
All forms & flavors
Beans
Snacks
As An Ingredient
Bulk
Vegan
Meat Alternatives
Cheeses
Nut & Grain Milks
2015 in review
looking forward UNFI natural channel
33 Trends Q4 2015
34 Trends Q4 2015 – Looking Forward
Identifying trends over the past year can give you insight into areas that may continue to expand in the future. Trends often cross paths and come and go in waves.
The applications are endless. Look for new products to keep the mix fresh, keep customers satisfied, and to cross over into all areas of the store.
What areas don’t do well? How can they become successful in 2016? Refresh the mix, reset the area, make sure there is proper signage and demos where appropriate.
We’ve seen the Cross-Fit and Paleo lifestyles change what consumers seek. Keep an eye out for upcoming new diets that may shape customers’ purchasing habits.
learn from the past
new diets nuts
& seeds
think outside the box
35 Trends Q4 2015 – Looking Forward
Thoughtful monthly promotions can generate significant sales. Themes for each month paired with corresponding products can be a win for retailers and customers alike. Don’t forget to cross merchandise interdepartmentally.
• American Heart Month • African-American History Month • Cherry Month • Hot Breakfast Month • Potato Lover’s Month • Snack Food Month • Chocolate Month • Dental Health Month
• Nutrition Month • Frozen Food Month • Women’s History Month • Caffeine Awareness Month • Noodle Month • Peanut Month
• Oatmeal Month • Hot Tea Month • Soup Month • Diet Month • Eye Care Month • Walk Your Pet Month • Cancer Prevention Month
january february march
prepare for the future
products featured
36 Trends Q4 2015
Trends Q4 2015 - Featured Products 37
Featured Products
Trends Q4 2015 - Featured Products 38
Featured Products
Trends Q4 2015 - Featured Products 39
Featured Products