Quantitative Constraints on Natural and Anthropogenic...
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Quantitative Constraints on Natural and Anthropogenic Mercury: Implications for Policy
Noelle E. Selin*, Shaojie Song, Amanda Giang *Assistant Professor of Engineering Systems and Atmospheric Chemistry Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mercury 2013, Edinburgh, 1 August 2013 [email protected] http://mit.edu/selin http://mit.edu/selingroup
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Questions
o What constraints do we have on the global biogeochemical cycle of mercury?
o Are these constraints enough to quantitatively evaluate global policy effectiveness?
For more information: N.E. Selin, “Global Change and Mercury Cycling: Challenges for Implementing a Global Mercury Treaty,” Forthcoming in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 2013 E. M. Sunderland and N. E. Selin, “Future trends in environmental mercury concentrations: Implications for prevention strategies." Environmental Health, 12(2), doi:10.1186/1476-069X-12-2 Also presentations at ICMGP by Amanda Giang (Friday); Shaojie Song (poster, Monday)
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Global Biogeochemical Cycle of Mercury
[Selin, Ann. Rev. Env. Res., 2009]
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Previous estimates of natural and anthropogenic fractions
o Pre-industrial constraint: Factor of 3 enhancement (Selin et al. 2008)
o Pre-industrial mercury ≠ Natural (Amos et al. 2013)
Current-day anthropogenic
Natural
Historical
exact fractions uncertain…
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Increasingly available observational data
EMEP
CAMNet
AMNet
http://www.emep.int/; http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/natchem/Login/Login.aspx; http://nadp.sws.uiuc.edu/amn/
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Constraints from Inverse Modeling
Ø For natural/re-emissions, the average uncertainties are reduced from 100% to ~ 64%.
Ø Better ability to constrain anthropogenic emissions, particularly in Asia
(e) Asia emission
Ocean Ocean Soil
From S. Song et al, presented in poster at ICGMP on Monday
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Emissions in the Minamata Convention
o Emissions to air, releases to water/land o Emissions controls:
n New Sources: Best Available Technology, 5 years
n Existing Sources: menu of choices, 10 years o Releases: must take measures to control
releases
For more: Policy session on Friday AM at ICMGP
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Emissions and Deposition to 2050
Sunderland and Selin, 2013; Selin, forthcoming
BAU
Minamata
o Minamata “BAT” provisions likely to roughly correspond to “B2” scenario
Very optimistic
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Modeling of Future GBC under Policy
A
Surface ocean: 7000
Geo
geni
c: 2
00
Depo
sitio
n: 2
200
Rivers: 200
Depo
sitio
n: 3
700
Evas
ion:
260
0
Anth
ropo
geni
c: 1
900
2900
4200
100
Land
em
issio
n:12
00
Surface soil: 110,000
Long-term soil: 860,000 Intermediate ocean: 160,000
Surface ocean: 3800
Deep ocean: 270,000
Atmosphere: 5000
270
A
Surface ocean: 7000
Geo
geni
c: 2
00
Depo
sitio
n: 2
200
Rivers: 240
Depo
sitio
n: 3
700
Evas
ion:
270
0
Anth
ropo
geni
c: 1
670
3300
4500
700
Land
em
issio
n:13
00
Surface soil: 130,000
Long-term soil: 880,000 Intermediate ocean: 180,000
Surface ocean: 4000
Deep ocean: 280,000
Atmosphere: 5000
280
(a) (b) (c)A
Surface ocean: 7000
Geo
geni
c: 2
00
Depo
sitio
n: 3
900
Rivers: 290
Depo
sitio
n: 6
300
Evas
ion:
400
0
Anth
ropo
geni
c: 4
700
3800
6400
790
Land
em
issio
n:15
00
Surface soil: 150,000
Long-term soil: 880,000 Intermediate ocean: 200,000
Surface ocean: 5800
Deep ocean: 280,000
Atmosphere: 8700
280
+5%
+12% +18%
+8% +4%
-12%
Present
Policy (2050)
Selin, ETC, forthcoming 2013
+75%
+150%
+116%
+25%
+53%
+25%
+85%
+100%
+36%
No policy (2050)
0%
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Conclusions
o Globally, future changes on order of 1-2%/year from Minamata Convention; mostly avoided increases
o Scientific knowledge not sufficient at present to attribute causes
o Increased role for measurement, modeling, effectiveness evaluation
o Additional benefits not accounted for from policy
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Acknowledgments
Funding: “CAREER: Understanding Chemistry, Transport and Fate of Mercury and Persistent Organic Pollutants through Global Atmospheric Modeling," U.S. National Science Foundation Atmospheric Chemistry Program, Award #1053648, 3/2011-3/2016 MIT graduate students Shaojie Song, Amanda Giang Student participants in trip to Mercury negotiations (INC5, Geneva, January 2013) Questions?
http://mit.edu/selingroup