Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH...
Transcript of Influence’of’future’emissionsand climateonatmospheric PAH...
Influence of future emissions and climate on atmospheric
PAH transport
Carey Friedman MIT Noelle E. Selin MIT Yanxu Zhang University of Washington
Polycyclic aroma+c hydrocarbons (PAHs): Why do we care? • Probable/possible human carcinogens (U.S. EPA) • Travel long distances in the air (measured in Arc+c) • Exposures include inhala+on
Ques+ons in this study: • What is the rela+ve influence of future (2050) climate and
future emissions on PAH transport? • How might we diagnose climate versus emissions influences?
The GEOS-‐Chem PAH model
Gas phase
OH Oxida+on
OC-‐Bound
Emissions
BC-‐bound
Wet dep Dry dep
O3 Oxida+on O3 Oxida+on
Wet dep Dry dep Wet dep Dry dep
Emissions: 1) Primary 2) Secondary
Friedman and Selin ES&T 2012
Phenanthrene (PHE) Pyrene (PYR) Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP)
Gas Par+culate
North America
Europe Russia
South Asia
East Asia
This study: future emissions and future climate We scale the top (70%) global anthropogenic sources from the
Zhang and Tao (Atmos. Environ., 2009) inventory from ~2000 to 2050:
Tradi+onal biomass burning (57%) Domes+c coal burning (4%) Vehicle emissions (5%) Coke produc+on (4%)
EMISSIONS GO DOWN
Par+cles: OC ê BC ê Oxidants: OHé O3é
This study: future emissions and future climate
Present climate Future climate (IPCC A1B)
Mean of simulated years: 1997-‐2003 2047-‐2053
Precipita+on
é 5%
Temperature
é 1.6 C
Wildfire emissions (17%)
We simulate present and future climate with GISS GCM meteorology from the GCAP project:
é or no change
Par+cles: OC ê BC ê Oxidants: OHê O3ê
Results: Vola+lity Maiers
< > ng/m3
< > ng/m3
< > ng/m3
< > ng/m
< > ng/m
< > ng/m
Phenanthrene (vola+le) Benzo[a]pyrene (non-‐vola+le) 2050-‐2000:
Emissions
Climate
Emissions &
Climate
-‐23%
+4%
-‐19%
-‐37%
-‐3%
-‐38%
Change in mean northern hemisphere concentra+ons
CLIM
ATE PE
NAL
TY: 19%
CLIMATE BEN
EFIT: 5%
The Arc+c is a priority for resolving climate vs. emissions influences
0o
15oN
30oN
45oN
60oN
75oN
90oN
0 80 160 240 320 400 480 PHE/BaP
0o
15oN
30oN
45oN
60oN
75oN
90oN
0 15 31 48
0o
15oN
30oN
45oN
60oN
75oN
90oN
0 16 32 48
CONTROL
2050 EMISSIONS
2050 CLIMATE
A
B
C
PHE/BaP
PHE/BaP
5
50
500
PHE/Ba
P
Measured 2000 Control Simula+on 2050 Emissions 2050 Climate
En+re Arc+c 60-‐90N n=3
High Arc+c 80-‐90N n=1
Acknowledgements Leading Technology and Policy Ini+a+ve, MIT NSF Atmospheric Chemistry Program Grant #1053648 NSF Office of Polar Programs Grant #1203526 Shiliang Wu, Michigan Tech Eric Leibensperger, SUNY Plaisburgh The Selin Group, MIT
Related literature: PAH model descrip+on and evalua+on:
Friedman and Selin. 2012. Long-‐range atmospheric transport of Polycyclic Aroma+c Hydrocarbons: A global 3-‐D model analysis including evalua+on of Arc+c sources. Environ. Sci. Technol. 46:9501.
2004 (present) PAH emissions:
Zhang and Tao. 2009. Global atmospheric emission inventory of PAHs for 2004. Atmos. Environ. 43:812. Future PAH vehicle emissions:
Shen et al. 2011. Global +me trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles. Atmos. Environ. 45:2067. Projec+ons of energy use:
Interna+onal Energy Agency. 2010 and 2011. “World Energy Outlook.” Projec+ons of wildfire index changes:
Liu et al. 2009. Trends in global wildfire poten+al in a changing climate. Forest Ecol. Manag. 259:685. Malevsky-‐Malevich et al. 2008. An assessment of poten+al change in wildfire ac+vity in the Russian boreal forest zone induced by climate warming during the twenty-‐first century. ClimaDc Change. 86:463.
Methods for par+cle and oxidant concentra+on projec+ons:
Wu et al. 2008. Effects of 200-‐2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-‐relevant background surface ozone in the United States. J. Geophys. Res. 113:D18312. Streets et al. 2004. On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions. J. Geosphys. Res. 109:D24212. Pye et al. 2009. Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfur-‐nitrate-‐ammonium aerosol levels in the United States. J. Geophys. Res. 114:D01205
Image credits: Eric DeRienzo Mark Thiessen