Q4 & Full Year 2017 Earnings Presentation...Q4 & Full Year 2017 Earnings Presentation February 2,...
Transcript of Q4 & Full Year 2017 Earnings Presentation...Q4 & Full Year 2017 Earnings Presentation February 2,...
Q4 & Full Year 2017Earnings PresentationFebruary 2, 2018
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2017 Financial and Operational Highlights
3
Highlights
• Adjusted earnings more than doubled from 2016 to $4.49 per diluted share
• Adjusted EBITDA increased 75% year-over-year to $672 million
• North Central benchmark OSB price up 31% versus 2016, averaging $353 per Msf
• Record production at 9 mills
• Commenced operations at both Huguley, Alabama and Inverness, Scotland mills
• North American operating mills produced at 96% of capacity, up from 94% in 2016
• Matched best-ever safety performance with OSHA total recordable injury rate of 0.74
• Permanently repaid $200 million bonds upon maturity
• Paid $101 million in dividends to shareholders
• Declared quarterly dividend of C$0.60 per share for shareholders of record on March 1, 2018
0.931.01
1.111.17 1.20
1.28
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
US Housing Starts
4
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
2017 data: housing starts up 3% with single family starts up 9% YoY
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(1)
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
5
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 22 1 10 55 24 24 23
Spread WC vs NC 49 28 6 21 51 35 27
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6”
285
293
330
409
379
269
353
263
292
320
354 355
245
330
236
265
324
388
328
234
326
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 2016 2017
North Central
South East
Western Canada
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
6
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
230
226
230233
262
233
239
200
225
250
275
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 2016 2017
Financial Summary
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Financials
(3) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q4 Q3 Q4
2017 2017 2016 2017 2016Sales $ 596 $ 578 $ 482 $ 2,177 $ 1,766Adjusted EBITDA
North America 195 184 108 638 352Europe 12 14 10 41 41Unallocated (1) (3) 2 (3) (7) (8)
Total 204 200 115 672 385
Earnings $ 160 $ 130 $ 61 $ 436 $ 183Adjusted for:
Loss on disposal of assets 3 2 - 12 -Stock-based compensation and related costs - 1 1 3 2Pre-operating costs related to Inverness project - 1 - 1 -
Gain on asset exchange - - (16) - (16)Other costs incurred to achieve merger synergies - - 1 - 8
Costs related to High Level fire - - - - 1Reported income tax expense(2) 6 32 29 81 61
Adjusted pre-tax earnings 169 166 76 533 239
Income tax expense at statutory rate(3) (46) (45) (21) (144) (65)
Adjusted earnings 123 121 55 389 174
Adjusted EPS, basic(4) 1.42 1.40 0.64 4.51 2.03
(4) Basic and diluted Adjusted earnings per share are the same except diluted Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2017 is $1.41, Q3 2017 is $1.39, 2017 is $4.49 and 2016 is $2.02.
(1) The positive Adjusted EBITDA generated in the Unallocated segment in Q3 2017 is a result of the change in policy to classify gains and losses on the translation of foreign currency-denominated tax balances from General and administrative expenses to Income tax expense.(2) The reported Q4 and full year 2017 income tax expense includes a non-recurring $35 million recovery resulting from the remeasurement of net deferred tax liabilities for the reduced US corporate tax rate enacted in December 2017.
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
8
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q4 2017 Q4 2017 2017
vs. vs. vs.Q3 2017 Q4 2016 2016
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 204 $ 204 $ 672
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 200 115 385
Variance 4 89 287
Mill nets(1) 21 115 363
Volume(2) - (5) 22
Key input prices(3) (1) (11) (37)
Key input usage(3) (8) (2) -
Mill profit share and bonus - (4) (15)
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) (8) (4) (46)
Total $ 4 $ 89 $ 287
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, costs to prepare the Huguley,
Alabama mill for restart and costs to start up the new Inverness, Scotland line.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
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Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2018 Target 2017 2016
Cash provided by operating activities $ 608 $ 313
Cash provided by operating activities per share 7.05 3.66
Operating working capital 127 118
Investment in property, plant and equipment & intangible assets (excluding Inverness project)
174 156(1) 74
Investment in Inverness project 1 101 33
(1) Includes $37 million to prepare the Huguley, Alabama mill for restart and $7 million of capitalized interest.
Balance Sheet
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Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant
Dec 31,
2017
Sep 30,
2017
Dec 31,
2016
Long-term debt, principal value $ 555 $ 555 $ 755
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (241) (126) (161)
Net debt 314 429 594
Add: Letters of credit 19 20 25
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 333 449 619
Tangible net worth Min. $500 1,248 1,128 905
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 21% 28% 41%
Liquidity of $592 million = $241 million in cash + $226 million in revolving bank lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization
Appendices
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
per
Msf
7/1
6"
Historical North American OSB Prices
12
Appendices
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
15-year average
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at February 1, 2018. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
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Appendices
Annual Average North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2018F 2019F
Vertical Research Partners 345 320
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 335 308
Raymond James 330 -
RBC Capital Markets 325 300
Scotiabank 305 314
Buckingham Research Group 300 -
CIBC World Markets 295 290
BMO Capital Markets 293 290
TD Securities 293 280
Average 313 300
North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand
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Industry Overview
37 Mills in Operation
4 Mills Available for Restart(1)
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
(in Bsf-3/8”)
2012 2017
Production 16.2 22.1
Restarts/Idled 4.4 2.0
New 1.2
=27% =14%
(1)Norbord’s Huguley, AL mill resumed
production in October 2017
2 Greenfield Mills in Development
Financial Sensitivities
15
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $59
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $12
Canadian dollar (3) $0.01 per C$ + $5
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $50 million based on the last twelve months of production at December 31, 2017.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2017 – US $149 million, Canada C$22 million, Belgium €32 million and UK £1 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares).