Q4 2016 Earnings Release€¢ Q4 net revenues of 165 MUSD compared to 132 MUSD in Q4 2015 • Net...

29
Kristian Johansen Sven Børre Larsen CEO CFO 2 February 2017 Q4 2016 Earnings Release

Transcript of Q4 2016 Earnings Release€¢ Q4 net revenues of 165 MUSD compared to 132 MUSD in Q4 2015 • Net...

  • Kristian Johansen Sven Brre LarsenCEO CFO2 February 2017

    Q4 2016 Earnings Release

  • Forward-Looking Statements

    2

    All statements in this presentation other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict and are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove accurate. These factors include TGS reliance on a cyclical industry and principal customers, TGS ability to continue to expand markets for licensing of data, and TGS ability to acquire and process data products at costs commensurate with profitability. Actual results may differ materially from those expected or projected in the forward-looking statements. TGS undertakes no responsibility or obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements for any reason.

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Q4 2016 Highlights Q4 net revenues of 165 MUSD compared to 132 MUSD in Q4 2015

    Net late sales of 145 MUSD, up 60% from 90 MUSD in Q4 2015

    Net pre-funding revenues of 17 MUSD were down 53% from Q4 2015, funding 19% (37% excl. risk-sharing investments) of TGS operational multi-client investments for the quarter (88 MUSD including 42 MUSD from risk sharing arrangements)

    Operating profit for the quarter was 42 MUSD compared to -140 MUSD in Q4 2015

    Cash flow from operations was 79 MUSD compared to 99 MUSD in Q4 2015 Cash balance of 191 MUSD at 31 December 2016 in addition to undrawn 75 MUSD

    Revolving Credit Facility

    Quarterly dividend maintained at USD 0.15 per share

    Full Year 2016 net revenues of 456 MUSD compared to 612 MUSD in 2015

    Full Year 2016 operational investments of 271 MUSD including 51 MUSD from risk sharing arrangements (39% pre-funded, 48% excl. risk-sharing investments)

    Full Year 2016 operating profit of 53 MUSD compared to -21 MUSD in 2015

    32017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Operational Highlights

  • Q4 2016 Operations

    5

    Sanco Spirit 2D JV

    Fugro Multibeam

    Northern Explorer 2D

    TDI Brooks Coring x2

    Atlantic Explorer 2D JV

    Dong Fang Kan Tan 1 2D JVWesternGeco Coil Crew

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Q4 Activity Gulf of Mexico

    Revolution XII and XIII ~7,150 km2 (306 blocks) multi-client full-azimuth survey in

    collaboration with WesternGeco

    Survey utilizes WesternGecos proprietary Q-Marine* point-receiver marine seismic system combined with the proprietary multi-vessel, Dual Coil Shooting acquisition technique

    Located in Green Canyon, Atwater Valley and Ewing Bank protraction areas of the Central Gulf of Mexico - This part of the Gulf of Mexico continues to see the highest activity level and benefits from significant near-term lease turnover

    Gigante 2D Seismic and Multibeam, Coring, and Geochemical Surveys ~186,000 km multi-client 2D regional survey completed

    during Q4 2016 with fast track data made available for December 2016 licensing round

    Data processing will continue throughout 2017

    ~600,000 km2 multibeam survey completed in Q4 2016 with geochemical analysis of the acquired cores continuing in 2017

    Interpretation of the data will integrate with the 2D seismic survey and enhance the value proposition to clients

    6

    *Mark of Schlumberger

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Q4 Activity East Canada & NW AfricaNewfoundland Labrador 2016 Season 41,800 km multi-client 2D survey in partnership with

    PGS sixth consecutive season of data acquisition completed in Q4 2016 with 2,300 km2 of 3D data added earlier in the year

    TGS-PGS JV library in this region now exceeds 153,000 km of modern 2D data and 11,200 km2 of 3D data in addition to 83,700 km of TGS vintage data, an expansive well log library and advanced multi-client interpretation products

    Successful licensing rounds in 2015 and 2016 and new Call for Bids issued over approximately 2.3 million hectares in Labrador South region (bids due 8 November 2017)

    North West African Atlantic Margin NWAAM 2017 Over 11,500 km of multi-client 2D seismic in

    partnership with PGS completed in Q4 2016

    Designed to infill, extend and complement the TGS NWAAM 2012 2D survey which helped with recent commercial discoveries in the MSGBC basin

    Confirms TGS commitment to the leading frontier basin in Africa, where TGS now has approximately 40,000 km of 2D data and 8,000 km2 of 3D data

    72017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Financials

  • 6 5 5 53 3

    7

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    Q12015

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    Q32015

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    Proprietary revenues

    72 82 90 90

    38

    84 67

    145

    020406080

    100120140160

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

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    Q42016

    Late sales revenues

    60% Y/Y

    94

    5374

    3723 26

    3917

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    Prefunding revenues

    172 140 169 13264

    114 113165

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    Total revenues

    9

    Net Revenues

    -53% Y/Y

    -37% Y/Y

    25% Y/Y

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • NSA60%Europe

    22%

    AMEAP4%

    Other14%

    Q4 2015

    NSA66%

    Europe21%

    AMEAP5%

    Other9%

    Q4 2016

    2D25%

    3D68%

    GPS7%

    Q4 2016

    10

    Net Revenue Breakdown

    2D45%

    3D43%

    GPS12%

    Q4 2015

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • 25 24 2228

    18 17 2024

    0

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    Q12015

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    Operating expenses *

    -12% Y/Y

    * Include personnel costs and other operating expenses. Adjusted for restructuring costs and larger impairments of operating items

    10574 99

    230

    62 69 7492

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    Q32015

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    Amortization and impairment *

    110

    -76

    49-20

    63

    -3529 33

    -100

    -50

    0

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    Free cash flow *

    11

    Operating Expenses, EBIT, Free Cash Flow

    57% - rate

    37 38 46 31

    -19

    2411

    45

    -40%

    -20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    -30-20-10

    01020304050

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Q32016

    Q42016

    EBIT *

    EBIT EBIT Margin

    * Q1-Q4 2016 reflects the new amortization policy effective from 1 January 2016

    * Earnings before interest and taxes and excluding larger impairments and restructuring costs

    * Defined as cash flow from operational activities minus operational cash investments in multi-client projects

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • 876 919 976 839 830 823 816 812

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    1,200

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    Q32015

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    Q12016

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    Q32016

    Q42016

    Multi-client library - NBV

    163116 135

    8853 62 68

    88

    0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

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    Pref

    undi

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    Ope

    ratio

    nal i

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    Operational investments and prefunding ratio

    Operational investments Prefunding ratio

    12

    Multi-Client Library

    13%

    1%

    10% 10%17%

    48%

    0%5%

    14%17% 19%

    44%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Fullyamortized

    2013 2014 2015 2016 WIP

    Net revenues Net book value

    Net revenues vs net book value year of completion

    270

    381

    609

    427

    250

    467

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    100

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    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 WIP

    Original investments Net Book Value

    20 %

    29% 54%16%

    0%10%

    68%

    Investments year of completion

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    *Q4 2016 prefunding rate excluding risk-sharing arrangements

  • 13

    Q4 2016 Income Statement

    USD million, except EPS Q4 2016 Q4 2015 Change in %Net revenues 165 132 25%Cost of goods sold proprietary and other 0.1 0.4 -77%

    Amortization of multi-client library 57% 92 230 -60%

    Gross margin 72 -99 173%Personnel costs 16 15 5%

    Other operating expenses 11 22 -49%

    Cost of stock options 0.1 0.2 -45%

    Depreciation 3 3 -8%

    Operating profit 25% 42 -140 130%Net financial items -3 -2 -96%Profit before taxes 23% 39 -142 127%Taxes 15 -20 174%

    Net Income 15% 24 -122 120%EPS, Undiluted 0.24 -1.20 120%

    EPS, Fully Diluted 0.23 -1.19 120%

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    Sheet1

    USD million, except EPSQ4 2016Q4 2015Change in %

    Net revenues16513225%

    Cost of goods sold proprietary and other0.10.4-77%

    Amortization of multi-client library57%92230-60%

    Gross margin72-99173%

    Personnel costs16155%

    Other operating expenses1122-49%

    Cost of stock options0.10.2-45%

    Depreciation33-8%

    Operating profit25%42-140130%

    Net financial items-3-2-96%

    Profit before taxes23%39-142127%

    Taxes15-20174%

    Net Income15%24-122120%

    EPS, Undiluted0.24-1.20120%

    EPS, Fully Diluted0.23-1.19120%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 14

    Q4 2016 Cash Flow Statement

    USD million Q4 2016 Q4 2015 Change in %

    Received payments from customers 111 140 -21%

    Payments for operational expenses (27) (24) -15%

    Paid taxes (5) (17) 72%

    Operational cash flow 79 99 -21%

    Investments in tangible and intangible assets (2) (1) -105%

    Investments in multi-client library (45) (119) 62%

    Investments through mergers and acquisitions - (8) 100%

    Interest received 0.2 0.8 -75%

    Interest paid (0.05) (0.09) 46%

    Dividend payments (14) - N/A

    Proceeds from share issuances - 0.8 -100%

    Change in cash balance 18 -27 165%

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    Sheet1

    USD millionQ4 2016Q4 2015Change in %

    Received payments from customers111140-21%

    Payments for operational expenses(27)(24)-15%

    Paid taxes(5)(17)72%

    Operational cash flow7999-21%

    Investments in tangible and intangible assets(2)(1)-105%

    Investments in multi-client library(45)(119)62%

    Investments through mergers and acquisitions- 0(8)100%

    Interest received0.20.8-75%

    Interest paid(0.05)(0.09)46%

    Dividend payments(14)- 0N/A

    Proceeds from share issuances- 00.8-100%

    Change in cash balance18-27165%

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 15

    Balance Sheet

    The Company holds no interest-bearing debt

    USD million Q4 2016 Q3 2016 Change in % Q4 2015AssetsCash and cash equivalents 191 173 10% 163Other current assets 353 275 28% 308Total current assets 544 449 21% 471Intangible assets and deferred tax asset 83 88 -6% 90Other non-current assets 11 21 -49% 25Multi-client library 812 816 0% 839Fixed assets 23 23 -2% 30Total Assets 1,473 1,397 5% 1,455LiabilitiesCurrent liabilities 262 198 32% 218Non-current liabilities 6 7 -13% 6Deferred tax liability 41 37 12% 33Total Liabilities 309 242 28% 257Equity 1,164 1,155 1% 1,198Total Liabilities and Equity 1,473 1,397 5% 1,455

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    Sheet1

    USD millionQ4 2016Q3 2016Change in %Q4 2014Q4 2015

    Assets

    Cash and cash equivalents19117310%256163

    Other current assets35327528%521308

    Total current assets54444921%778471

    Intangible assets and deferred tax asset8388-6%8590

    Other non-current assets1121-49%4425

    Multi-client library812816-0%818839

    Fixed assets2323-2%4330

    Total Assets1,4731,3975%1,7681,455

    Liabilities

    Current liabilities26219832%393218

    Non-current liabilities67-13%76

    Deferred tax liability413712%2933

    Total Liabilities30924228%428257

    Equity1,1641,1551%1,3391,198

    Total Liabilities and Equity1,4731,3975%1,7681,455

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Dividend stable at USD 0.15 per share

    Shareholder authorization to distribute quarterly dividend payments from Q1 2016 Aim to keep a stable quarterly dividend through the year Actual quarterly dividend level paid will be subject to continuous evaluation of market

    outlook, cash flow expectations and balance sheet development

    Q1 2016: USD 0.15 per share dividend paid on 23 February 2016 Q2 2016: USD 0.15 per share dividend paid on 1 June 2016 Q3 2016: USD 0.15 per share dividend paid on 25 August 2016 Q4 2016: USD 0.15 per share dividend paid on 18 November 2016 Q1 2017: USD 0.15 per share dividend to be paid on 23 February 2017 (shares will trade ex-

    dividend on 9 February 2017)

    162017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    5 NOK6 NOK

    8 NOK 8.5 NOK

    8.5 NOK

    USD 0.15per Quarter

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

    USD

    per

    sha

    re

    Year of Payment*Quarterly Dividends, defined in USD from 2016Historical NOK dividends converted to USD using FX rate on ex-dividend date

    Q1

    Q2

    Q3

    Q4Q4

    Q1

    3.7% 3.6%4.0% 3.9%

    4.9%5.2%

    3.6%

    2.5%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*

    Yiel

    d (o

    n da

    y of

    ann

    ounc

    emen

    t)

    Year of Payment

    Dividend Paid* (2010 2017) Dividend Yield (2010 2017)

    *2016 and 2017 Dividend Yield annualized based on the weighted yield at the time of announcement of quarterly dividends

  • Outlook

  • Different Cycles Different Priorities

    182017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    Sources: Barclays; TGS

    478 568 609

    932 883 915

    612

    456

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

    Recovery phase

    Growth and market share Cash flow and risk mitigationCapital efficiency and

    profitable growth

    Strategic Priorities

  • Strategy Pays Off - Market Cap Peak vs. Current

    192017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    TGS has once again proven its resilient business model

    Source: S&P Capital IQ

    2014 Current

    2,3622,955

    2,378

    256510

    360217 30 19

    TGS CGG PGS SPU ION PLCS EMGS MCG SBX

    2,506

    238

    1,198

    243 7128 30 15 7

    TGS CGG PGS SPU ION PLCS EMGS MCG SBX

  • Exploration Spending Likely to Recover Long-term

    Two factors point to increased activity in the longer-term

    1. Current exploration efforts are unsustainable

    2. Cost levels should eventually come down to levels that justify higher spending at current oil prices

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved 20

  • 1. Current Exploration Efforts are Unsustainable

    Substantial reduction in oil companies exploration spending - Seismic spending down more than 60% since peak in 2013

    This has resulted in historically low exploration success Only 2.7bn barrels of new conventional oil supply was discovered in 2015, the lowest since 1947

    (Wood Mackenzie) Global reserve replacement ratio well below 1 in 2015-16

    21

    0%

    20%

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    60%

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    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    1994

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    2015

    Organic Reserve Replacement Ratio

    Source: SEB Research

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    1990

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    Year

    s

    Integrated Oil Companies Avg. Oil Reserve Life

    Source: Nordea

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • 2. Costs are Coming Down

    Substantial cost reductions in E&P and service industries break-even prices have fallen almost 50% from peak

    Historically the largest oil companies have been able to produce decent return on capital at real oil prices of around USD 50 per barrel

    22

    Source: Nordea, EIA, TGS

    0

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    Bre

    nt U

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    /bl

    RO

    CE

    ROCE Brent (RHS)

    Avg. ROCE 1990-2015: 12%Avg. real Brent: USD 53 per bbl

    0

    20

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    USD/bbl

    Brent oil priceBreak-even after CAPEX (USD/bbl)Break-even after CAPEX and div. (USD/bbl)

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

    Integrated oil companies break-even oil price ROCE 10 largest integrated oil companies vs. Real Brent oil price

  • TGS MC Library Managing Risk & Return

    Low beta

    23

    Medium beta High Beta

    Lower returns but high IRR Prefunding in excess of 70% - low or

    no net investment Project characteristics

    Awarded acreage Onshore areas Farm-ins / relinquishments Low downside risk

    Return targets >2x investment Prefunding of 30-50% Open acreage and regular license

    rounds Established multi-client areas Many clients

    Return targets >2.5x investment Low or no prefunding Risk sharing with suppliers G&G knowledge driven projects Higher risk and volatility

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • License Round Activity and TGS Positioning

    24

    Europe / Russia Norway APA H1 2017 (Round Launch) Norway 24th Round H1 2017 (Round Launch) UK Supplementary Round 7 Mar 2017 (bids due) Greenland Dec 2017 & 2018 (bids due)

    Africa, Middle East, Asia Pacific Ongoing uncertainty on timing of African

    licensing rounds Australia Feb & Mar 2017 (bids due) New Zealand 2017 (consultation underway) Indonesia H2 2017 (Round announcements)

    North & South America Central GOM Mar 2017 (2012-17 Plan) Central & Western GOM Aug 2017 (2017-22 Plan) Newfoundland & Labrador Nov 2017 (Scheduled Land Tenure) Nova Scotia Oct 2017 (3-Year Rolling Plan) Canada Onshore at least monthly Brazil 14th Offshore and Pre-Salt Rounds in 2017 Mexico Round 2.1 & 2.2 in H1 2017, further rounds into 2019

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • 25

    Backlog

    146185 178

    213 224260

    193242

    182125 103

    71

    281 293

    145

    510

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    Q12013

    Q22013

    Q32013

    Q42013

    Q12014

    Q22014

    Q32014

    Q42014

    Q12015

    Q22015

    Q32015

    Q42015

    Q12016

    Q22016

    Q32016

    Q42016

    Historical Backlog (MUSD) 2012 - 2016

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • 2017 Projects Schedule*Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Dong Fang Kan Tan 1

    Atlantic Explorer

    Atlantic Guardian CSEM

    Fugro Multibeam

    TDI Brooks Coring

    NWAAM JV

    U.S. GOM

    2D &

    Oth

    er

    EUR AMEAP

    U.S. GOM

    Barents Sea JV

    WesternGeco Coil Crew

    Polarcus Amani

    Polarcus Asima

    Polar Duchess

    East Canada JV

    West Kermit West Kermit

    U.S. GOM JV

    3DLa

    nd

    NSA

    *Acquisition schedule excludes Fusion M-WAZ Reprocessing, other processing projects and GPS investments

    Atlantic Margin

    Atlantic Margin

    Atlantic Margin

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved 26

  • Guidance

    Based on the current investment plan, TGS provides the following guidance for 2017:

    New multi-client investments* at approximately the same level as in 2016

    Additional multi-client investments expected from sales of existing surveys with risk sharing arrangements

    Pre-funding of new multi-client investments* expected to be approximately 40-45%

    *New multi-client investments excluding investments related to surveys with risk sharing arrangements

    2017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved 27

    Multi-client investments and pre-funding

    0%

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    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017guidance

    MU

    SD

    MC investments related to risk shareNew multi-client investments*

  • Summary

    Q4 net revenues of 165 MUSD Positive cash flow further strengthens balance sheet Cash balance of 191 MUSD in addition to undrawn 75 MUSD Revolving Credit Facility Quarterly dividend maintained at USD 0.15 per share

    Although some improvement seen over the past year, market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2017

    Long-term future of asset-light, focused multi-client business remains strong Cost control, disciplined counter-cyclical investment and balance sheet strength positions TGS

    to enhance its leading position

    2017 guidance: New multi-client investments at approximately the same level as in 2016

    Additional multi-client investments expected from sales of existing surveys with risk sharing arrangements

    Pre-funding of new multi-client investments expected to be approximately 40%-45%

    282017 TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA. All rights reserved

  • Thank you

    www.tgs.com

    Q4 2016 Earnings ReleaseForward-Looking StatementsQ4 2016 HighlightsOperational HighlightsQ4 2016 OperationsQ4 Activity Gulf of MexicoQ4 Activity East Canada & NW AfricaFinancialsNet RevenuesNet Revenue BreakdownOperating Expenses, EBIT, Free Cash FlowMulti-Client Library Q4 2016 Income StatementQ4 2016 Cash Flow StatementBalance SheetDividend stable at USD 0.15 per shareOutlookDifferent Cycles Different PrioritiesStrategy Pays Off - Market Cap Peak vs. CurrentExploration Spending Likely to Recover Long-term1. Current Exploration Efforts are Unsustainable2. Costs are Coming DownTGS MC Library Managing Risk & ReturnLicense Round Activity and TGS PositioningBacklog2017 Projects Schedule*GuidanceSummarySlide Number 29