Q3 2012 Inflation Report final - Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas Information Administration EM Emerging...
Transcript of Q3 2012 Inflation Report final - Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas Information Administration EM Emerging...
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FOREWORD
he primary objective of monetary policy is to promote a low and stable rate of inflation conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth. The adoption in January
2002 of the inflation targeting framework for monetary policy was aimed at helping to fulfill this objective.
One of the key features of inflation targeting is greater transparency, which means greater disclosure and communication by the BSP of its policy actions and decisions. This Inflation Report is published by the BSP as part of its transparency mechanisms under inflation targeting. The objectives of this Inflation Report are: (i) to identify the risks to price stability and discuss their implications for monetary policy; and (ii) to document the economic analysis behind the formulation of monetary policy and convey to the public the overall thinking behind the BSP’s decisions on monetary policy. The broad aim is to make monetary policy easier for the public to understand and enable them to better monitor the BSP’s commitment to the inflation target, thereby helping both in anchoring inflation expectations and encouraging informed debate on monetary policy issues.
The government’s target for annual headline inflation under the inflation targeting
framework has been set at 4 ± 1 percent for 2012‐2014. The shift to a fixed medium‐term inflation target from a variable annual inflation target was announced by the BSP on 15 July 2010 and approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on 9 July 2010 under DBCC Resolution No. 2010‐3.
The report is published on a quarterly basis, presenting a survey of the various factors
affecting inflation. These include recent price and cost developments, inflation expectations, prospects for aggregate demand and output, labor market conditions, monetary and financial market conditions, fiscal developments, and the international environment. A section is devoted to a discussion of monetary policy developments in the most recent, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the BSP’s view of the inflation outlook for the policy horizon. This issue also features a box article on the impact of economic developments in China on Philippine inflation.
The Monetary Board approved this Inflation Report at its meeting on 30 October 2012.
AMANDO M. TETANGCO, JR. Governor
9 November 2012
T
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List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Symbols AE Advanced economyAFF AHFF AMCs
Agriculture, Fishery, and Forestry Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing Asset Management Companies
AP Asia PacificAL Auto Loans BAS Bureau of Agricultural StatisticsBES BGC BIR
Business Expectations Survey Bonifacio Global City Bureau of Internal Revenue
BIS Bank for International SettlementsBOC Bureau of Customs BPO Business Process Outsourcing BTr Bureau of the Treasury CAMPI Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio CBD Central Business DistrictCCRs Credit Card Receivables CES Consumer Expectations Survey CDS Credit Default Swaps CI Confidence IndexCPI DAA DDA DBCC DOF EIA
Consumer Price Index Deferred Accounting Adjustment Demand Deposit Account Development Budget Coordination Committee Department of Finance Energy Information Administration
EM Emerging Market EMBI ERC
JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Energy Regulatory Commission
EU European UnionFAO FPI
Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index
GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GRAM GS
Generation Rate Adjustment Mechanism Government Securities
ICERA Incremental Currency Exchange Rate Adjustment IEA International Energy AgencyIMF International Monetary Fund IPP Independent Power Producer LFS Labor Force Survey LPG Liquefied Petroleum GasLTFRB MB
Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board Monetary Board
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MEM MENA
Multi‐Equation Model Middle East and North Africa
Meralco Manila Electric CompanyMISSI Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries MTP NBQBs
Major Trading Partner Non‐Bank Financial Institutions with Quasi‐Banking Functions
NCCP National Council for Commuters’ ProtectionNDA NEDA NEER
Net Domestic Assets National Economic and Development Authority Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
NFA Net Foreign Assets; National Food Authority NG NGCP
National Government National Grid Corporation of the Philippines
NPC National Power Corporation NPI Net Primary IncomeNPLs Non‐performing loans NSO O&O
National Statistics Office Offshoring and Outsourcing
OPEC OF
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Overseas Filipinos
PBR PCE PMI PSALM
Performance‐Based Rate Personal Consumption Expenditure Purchasing Managers’ Index Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation
PSEi Philippine Stock Exchange Composite IndexPSIC Philippine Standard Industrial Classification RB RDA
Rural Banks Reserve Deposit Account
REER Real Effective Exchange RateROP Republic of the Philippines RP RR
Repurchase Reserve Requirement
RREL Residential and Real Estate Loans RRP RWA
Reverse Repurchase Risk Weighted Assets
SEM SMS
Single‐Equation Model Short Message Service
SDA Special Deposit Account TCS TLP
Transportation, Communications, and Storage Total Loan Portfolio
U/KBs VAPI VOP
Universal/commercial banks Value of production index Volume of production index
WEO WESM
World Economic Outlook Wholesale Electricity Spot Market
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THE MONETARY POLICY OF THE BANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINAS
The BSP Mandate The BSP’s main responsibility is to formulate and implement policy in the areas of money, banking and credit, with the primary objective of maintaining stable prices conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth in the Philippines. The BSP also aims to promote and preserve monetary stability and the convertibility of the national currency. Monetary Policy Instruments The BSP’s primary monetary policy instrument is its overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) or borrowing rate. Other instruments to implement the desired monetary policy stance to achieve the inflation target include (a) increasing/decreasing the reserve requirement; (b) encouraging/discouraging deposits in the special deposit account (SDA) facility by banks and trust entities of BSP‐supervised financial institutions; (c) adjusting the rediscount rate on loans extended to banking institutions on a short‐term basis against eligible collateral of banks’ borrowers; and (d) outright sales/purchases of the BSP’s holdings of government securities. Policy Target The BSP’s target for monetary policy uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or headline inflation rate, which is compiled and released to the public by the National Statistics Office (NSO). The policy target is set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC)1 in consultation with the BSP. On 9 July 2010, the BSP announced its shift to a fixed inflation target for the medium term of 4.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point for 2012‐2014. BSP’s Explanation Clauses These are the predefined set of acceptable circumstances under which an inflation‐targeting central bank may fail to achieve its inflation target. These clauses reflect the fact that there are limits to the effectiveness of monetary policy and that deviations from the inflation target may sometimes occur because of factors beyond the control of the central bank. Under the inflation targeting framework of the BSP, these exemptions include inflation pressures arising from: (a) volatility in the prices of agricultural products; (b) natural calamities or events that affect a major part of the economy; (c) volatility in the prices of oil products; and (d) significant government policy changes that directly affect prices such as changes in the tax structure, incentives, and subsidies.
1 The DBCC, created under Executive Order (E.O.) No. 232 dated 14 May 1970, is an inter‐agency committee tasked primarily to formulate the National Government's fiscal program. It is composed of the Office of the President (OP), Department of Budget and Management (DBM), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), and the Department of Finance (DOF). The BSP sits as a resource agency.
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The Monetary Board The powers and functions of the BSP, such as the conduct of monetary policy and the supervision over the banking system, are exercised by its Monetary Board, which has seven members appointed by the President of the Philippines. Starting in 2012, the Monetary Board will hold eight (8) monetary policy meetings in a year to review and decide on the stance of monetary policy. Prior to 2012, monetary policy meetings were held every six weeks while prior to July 2006, meetings were held every four weeks during the 2002 – July 2006 period.
Chairman Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. Members Cesar V. Purisima
Alfredo C. Antonio
Ignacio R. Bunye
Peter B. Favila
Felipe M. Medalla
Armando L. Suratos
The Advisory Committee The Advisory Committee was established as an integral part of the institutional setting for inflation targeting. It is tasked to deliberate, discuss, and make recommendations on monetary policy to the Monetary Board. Like the Monetary Board, the Committee will meet eight times a year (beginning in January 2012) but may also meet between regular meetings, whenever it is deemed necessary.
Chairman Amando M. Tetangco, Jr.Governor
Members2 Diwa C. Guinigundo
Deputy Governor Monetary Stability Sector
Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr.Deputy Governor Supervision and Examination Sector
Ma. Cyd N. Tuaño‐Amador
Assistant Governor Monetary Policy Sub‐Sector
Ma. Ramona GDT SantiagoAssistant Governor Treasury Department
2 The Advisory Committee is supported by a Technical Secretariat composed of officers and staff from the Department of
Economic Research, Center for Monetary and Financial Policy, and the Treasury Department.
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2012 SCHEDULE OF MONETARY POLICY MEETINGS, INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE AND PUBLICATION OF MB HIGHLIGHTS
Period Advisory
Committee (AC) Meeting
Monetary Board (MB)
Meeting
MB Highlights Publication
Inflation Report (IR) Press Conference
2 0 1 2
Jan 13 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 1)
19 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 1)
Feb 24 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 2)
16 (Thu)
(19 Jan 2012 MB) 3 (Fri)
(Q4 2011 IR)
Mar 1 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 2)
29 (Thu) (1 Mar 2012 MB)
Apr 13 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 3)
19 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 3)
May 17 (Thu) (19 Apr 2012 MB)
4 (Fri) (Q1 2012 IR)
Jun 8 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 4)
14 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 4)
Jul 20 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 5)
26 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 5)
12 (Thu) (14 Jun 2012 MB)
Aug 23 (Thu) (26 Jul 2012 MB)
10 (Fri) (Q2 2012 IR)
Sep 7 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 6)
13 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 6)
Oct 19 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 7)
25 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 7)
11 (Thu) (13 Sep 2012 MB)
Nov 22 Nov (Thu) (25 Oct 2012 MB)
9 (Fri) (Q3 2012 IR)
Dec 7 (Fri) (AC Meeting No. 8)
13 (Thu) (MB Meeting No. 8)
10 Jan 2013 (Thu) (13 Dec 2012 MB)
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CONTENTS
Overview 1
I. Inflation and Real Sector Developments 3
Prices 3
Private Sector Economists’ Inflation Forecasts 5
Aggregate Demand and Supply 8
Aggregate Demand 9
Other Demand Indicators 10 Aggregate Supply 19
Labor Market Conditions 20
II. Monetary and Financial Market Conditions
21
Domestic Liquidity and Credit Conditions 21
Interest Rates 25
Financial Market Conditions
27
Banking System 30
Exchange Rate 33
III. Fiscal Developments IV. External Developments
Box article: Spillovers from China: Impact on Philippine Inflation
35 36 40
V. Monetary Policy Developments 43
VI. Inflation Outlook 45
BSP Inflation Forecasts Risks to the Inflation Outlook
VII. Implications for the Monetary Policy Stance Summary of Monetary Policy Decisions
45 48 52 54
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OVERVIEW
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Headline inflation accelerates owing to higher food inflation. Average inflation, using the 2006‐based CPI series, rose to 3.5 percent in Q3 2012 compared to the quarter‐ago rate of 2.9 percent. This brought the year‐to‐date (ytd) inflation rate to 3.2 percent, which is at the low end of the Government’s inflation target range of 3‐5 percent for 2012. The uptick in headline inflation was due mainly to higher food prices as production and distribution disruption owing to adverse weather conditions led to increased prices of rice, meat, milk, fruits, and vegetables. Non‐food inflation, however, was stable as lower inflation for transport offsets the increase in the prices of electricity, gas, and other fuels. Similarly, core inflation increased further to 4.1 percent in Q3 2012 from 3.7 percent in the previous quarter, pointing to potential underlying inflation pressures. Two out of three alternative measures of core inflation estimated by the BSP, particularly, the trimmed mean and the net of volatile items measures, likewise went up relative to the rates registered in the previous quarter. The weighted median measure, on the other hand, was stable at 3.2 percent. Nonetheless, the number and weight of CPI components showing inflation rates above the 5.0 percent threshold rose anew, with more non‐food items above the threshold. Growth momentum remains robust. Demand conditions have continued to strengthen with real GDP increasing by 5.9 percent in Q2 2012, bringing the first semester growth to 6.1 percent, above the 2012 government GDP target of 5‐6 percent. The expansion was driven largely by household consumption and exports on the expenditure side. Government expenditure also grew, supported by higher maintenance and other operating expenditures (MOOE) as well as the continued spending on social protection programs. Meanwhile, on the production side, GDP growth was led by services. Latest data also suggest that growth could hold up in the remaining months of the year. The September purchasing managers’ index (PMI) continues to point to expanding economic activity, particularly for the retail/wholesale sector. Results of the NSO’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) also indicate that the majority of the establishments surveyed continued to operate above 80 percent of existing capacity. Similarly, energy sales have expanded further, albeit at a slower pace, driven by increased consumption from the industrial sector. The economy is also expected to gain support from favorable business and consumer sentiment ahead of the Christmas season and 2013 elections, given the upbeat view on employment, income, and investment prospects in the country. Global economic prospects deteriorate further. In the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, the IMF downgraded further its projections for global economic growth in 2012 and 2013 in light of elevated downside risks to the growth outlook. The crisis in the euro area remains a significant threat to the global economy amid lingering doubts over the prospects for the strengthening of financial conditions in the region. Moreover, the significant public debt overhang in the US and Japan remains a source of concern amid persistent weaknesses in domestic demand. These risks continue to weigh heavily on market confidence and are likely to spill over to emerging markets (EMs) via trade and financial market channels. The latest JP Morgan Global All‐Industry Output Index likewise signaled continued economic sluggishness despite production expansion in some advanced economies (AEs) such as US, UK, Brazil, and Russia. In EMs, the slowdown in output reflected weaker domestic demand conditions due to past policy tightening in 2011 in response to brewing inflation pressures, a return to more sustainable investment path, less favorable business sentiment, and weaker external demand. Meanwhile, the inflation environment in AEs remains manageable given sizeable spare capacity in these economies, while headline inflation is projected to move broadly sideways in many emerging economies. Nonetheless, upside risks to inflation continue to raise some concern, particularly with regard to sharp increases in the global prices of some food commodities. Global financial market conditions improve but crisis in the euro area remains a source of risk. Measures by AE monetary authorities to ensure adequate liquidity in their respective financial system as well as boost domestic economic activity helped restore confidence in financial markets across the globe. The
3 The analyses in this report are based on information as of 30 September 2012.
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accommodative monetary stance of AE central banks, coupled with continued favorable macroeconomic prospects in dynamic EMs, has also translated to significant flows to these economies fuelling sustained rallies in domestic equities markets and the further narrowing of debt spreads. In the Philippines, the key stock exchange index increased by 3.1 percent relative to previous quarter on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals as well as the US Fed’s announcement of a third round of quantitative easing program. Debt spreads also narrowed owing to increased demand for EM assets as low interest rates in AEs boosted demand for the Asia’s higher yielding assets. The peso likewise continued to appreciate, buoyed by steady forex inflows from OF remittances, portfolio investments, and foreign direct investments. Reflecting ample liquidity in the financial market, secondary market yields for all tenors were lower as of end‐September 2012 relative to their end‐June 2012 levels while oversubscription in T‐bill auctions rose, supported by strong buying activity and upbeat market sentiment. Domestic liquidity continued to grow while credit activity remained brisk, helping provide support to the domestic economy amid further weakening of global economic prospects. This is in line with the results of the Q3 2012 BSP Senior Bank Loan Officers’ Survey, which showed increased demand for loans from enterprises and households. Inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. While higher for Q3 2012, results of the BSP’s survey of private economists continue to indicate within‐target inflation expectations for 2012‐2014. Rising food prices on account of adverse weather conditions in major commodity producing countries as well as higher energy prices due to renewed tensions in the Middle East are seen to contribute to inflation pressures going forward. Meanwhile, results of the latest consumer expectations survey showed that consumers expected slightly lower inflation over the next 12 months. The BSP reduces policy rates during the quarter. During its monetary policy meeting on 26 July 2012, the BSP decided to reduce its key policy interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The Monetary Board’s (MB) policy rate decision was based on its assessment that price pressures have been receding, with risks to the inflation outlook slightly titled to the downside. Authorities were also of the view that the benign inflation outlook provided room for a reduction in policy rates as a pre‐emptive move against the risks associated with the global slowdown. The manageable inflation outlook provides room for monetary policy to help support domestic economic activity amid uncertain global prospects. Projected inflation remains within‐target range over the policy horizon with risks to the inflation outlook appearing to be broadly balanced. Potential upside risks to inflation include pending power rate adjustments and higher global prices for some grains. Nonetheless, subdued global demand could moderate upward pressures on international commodity prices, thus tempering the overall outlook for inflation. Inflation expectations also appear to be firmly anchored at levels consistent with the inflation target over the policy horizon. On balance, the overall growth momentum is still expected to remain fairly robust in the near term, supported by strong business and consumer confidence and other domestic growth drivers. However, the BSP is also mindful that global economic prospects continue to face considerable headwinds. World economic conditions are likely to remain tepid as fiscal and financial sector stresses in advanced economies continue to dampen market confidence. Thus, additional policy support amid a benign inflation outlook could help ward off the risks associated with weaker external demand by encouraging investment and consumption, which could help buffer domestic output growth against ongoing global economic strains. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor closely the evolving balance of risks to both inflation and output to ensure that monetary conditions remain in line with price stability while supportive of non‐inflationary economic growth.
[On 25 October 2012, the MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.50 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The nterest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and special deposit accounts (SDAs) were also reduced accordingly.]
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I. INFLATION AND REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
Prices Inflation accelerates due largely to higher food inflation.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
in percent
Quarterly Headline Inflation (2006=100)
Q3 20123.5 pct
Core inflation increases. Alternative Core Inflation Measures
Quarterly averages of year‐on‐year change
QuarterOfficial Core Inflation
Trimmed
Mean 1/
Weighted
Median 2/Net of Volatile Items 3/ *
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.6
4.3
4.0
4.3
4.4
4.5
3.5
3.7
4.1
2.8
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.8
3.8
3.3
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.0
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.6
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.7
3.2
3.8
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.0
3.3
3.91/ The trimmed mean represents the average inflation rate of the (weighted) middle 70 percent in a lowest
to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates for all CPI components.
2/ The weighted median represents the middle inflation rate (corresponding to a cumulative CPI weight of 50 percent) in a lowest‐to‐highest ranking of year‐on‐year inflation rates.
3/ The net of volatile items method excludes the following items: educational services, fruits and vegetables, personal services, rentals, recreational services, rice, and corn.
r/ Revised.
* The series has been recomputed using a new methodology that is aligned with NSO’s method of computing the official core inflation, which re‐weights remaining items to comprise 100 percent of the core basket after excluding non‐core items. The previous methodology retained the weights of volatile items in the CPI basket while keeping their indices constant at 100.0 from month to month.
Source: NSO, BSP estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI Items with Inflation Rates Above Threshold
Cumulative Weight (in %) No. of Items Above 5% Threshold
59 items
21.5
Headline and Core Inflation Year‐on‐year (y‐o‐y) headline inflation rose to 3.5 percent in Q3 2012 from 2.9 percent in the previous quarter, but was lower than the 4.8 percent posted a year ago. This brought the ytd average inflation rate to 3.2 percent, which is within the Government’s inflation target range of 3‐5 percent for 2012. The uptick in headline inflation was due mainly to higher food prices, notably rice, meat, milk, fruits, and vegetables. Non‐food inflation, on the other hand, was stable. Similarly, core inflation, which excludes some food and energy items to measure generalized price pressures, increased to 4.1 percent in Q3 2012 from the quarter‐ago rate of 3.7 percent, but was lower than the year‐ago rate of 4.4 percent. This reflected higher food core inflation amid the steady prices of non‐food core items. Two out of three alternative measures of core inflation estimated by the BSP likewise went up in Q3 2012 relative to the rates registered in the previous quarter. In particular, the trimmed mean and the net of volatile items measures rose to 3.3 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, from the previous quarter’s 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent. The weighted median measure, on the other hand, was stable at 3.2 percent.
In Q3 2012, the number of items with inflation rates greater than the threshold of 5.0 percent (the upper end of the 2012 inflation target) increased to 59 from 52 in the previous quarter, but was lower than the 63 items recorded in Q3 2011. These items accounted for a slightly higher proportion of the CPI basket at 21.5 percent compared to the quarter‐ago share of 20.3 percent. Grouping the CPI basket into food and non‐food components showed that more non‐food items were above the threshold. There were 38 non‐food items with inflation rates above the threshold from 31 items in the previous quarter.
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Higher prices of rice, meat, milk, fruits, and vegetables drive up food inflation.
Inflation Rates for Selected Food ItemsQuarterly averages in percent (2006=100)
Commodity2011 2012
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3Food and Non‐alcoholic Beverages
6.2 5.3 1.9 3.1
Food 6.3 5.4 1.8 3.0Bread and Cereals 5.6 4.7 1.3 2.1
Rice 5.8 4.0 ‐0.3 0.9Corn 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.3
Meat 2.1 2.5 1.1 1.2Fish 7.1 8.0 7.0 6.9Milk, Cheese and Eggs 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.5Oils and Fats 36.1 35.5 ‐1.6 ‐4.5Fruit 6.6 6.1 7.0 7.2Vegetables 11.8 9.7 ‐0.1 5.8Sugar, Jam, Honey 14.0 ‐5.3 ‐16.9 ‐1.8Food Products N.E.C. 4.6 3.5 2.8 2.0
Non‐alcoholic Beverages 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.5
Source of Basic Data: NSO, BSP
Inflation Rates for Selected Non‐Food ItemsQuarterly averages in percent (2006=100)
Commodity2011 2012
Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3
Non‐Food 4.0 4.4 3.7 3.7
Clothing and Footwear 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.0Housing, Water, Electricity, 4.9 5.1 4.4 5.0Gas and Other Fuels
Furnishings, Household 2.4 2.6 3.4 4.3Equipment
Health 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1Transport 6.6 6.9 2.2 1.2Communication ‐0.2 ‐0.3 0.1 0.2Recreation and Culture 1.3 1.6 2.6 2.7Education 4.6 5.1 4.7 4.4Restaurant and Miscellaneous 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.3Goods and Services
Source of Basic Data: NSO, BSP
Meanwhile, the number of food items with inflation rates higher than the threshold was unchanged at 21 items. Food Inflation Food inflation increased to 3.0 percent in Q3 2012 from 1.8 percent in the previous quarter, but was lower than the 5.4 percent posted a year ago. Tight domestic supply conditions, triggered by weather‐related production disruptions led to higher retail prices of key food items. In particular, the inflation rate of rice, meat, milk, fruits, and vegetables went up to 0.9 percent, 1.2 percent, 3.5 percent, 7.2 percent, and 5.8 percent, respectively, from the quarter‐ago rates of ‐0.3 percent, 1.1 percent, 3.3 percent, 7.0 percent and ‐0.1 percent. Non‐food inflation Non‐food inflation was steady at 3.7 percent during the review quarter, but was lower than the year‐ago rate of 4.4 percent. Lower inflation for transport offset the increase in the prices of electricity, gas and other fuels. In particular, from 2.2 percent in Q2 2012, transport inflation slowed down to 1.2 percent in Q3 2012 due largely to slower price increases for gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation rose to 6.7 percent from the quarter‐ago rate of 6.1 percent due to higher electricity charges and LPG prices.
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Private Sector Economists’ Inflation Forecasts Mean inflation forecasts for 2012 to 2014 increase.
4.4
5.3
4.5
4.1
4.8
4.3 4.3 4.2
3.5
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.64.4
4.5
4.14.1
3.6
3.9
4.2
4.0
3
4
4
5
5
6
Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012 Q2 Q3
Mean Forecast for Full‐year, in percent
BSP Private Sector Economists' Survey
2012 2013 2014
2014Q4 FY FY FY
1) Al‐Amanah Islamic Bank 3.60 3.60 3.50 3.502) Asia ING 3.80 3.30 3.70 4.103) Banco De Oro 3.81 3.50 3.254) Bank of China 3.90 3.80 3.90 4.205) Bank of Commerce 3.90 3.40 ‐ ‐6) Bangkok Bank 3.80 3.50 4.00 4.007) China Bank 3.80 3.50 4.10 4.208) Chinatrust 3.80 3.50 4.10 4.009) Deutsche Bank ‐ 3.10 4.30 ‐10) Forecastweb Singapore 3.60 3.40 ‐ ‐11) Goldman Sachs 3.80 3.40 4.20 ‐12) HSBC 3.90 3.40 4.90 4.8013) JP Morgan 3.70 3.30 3.30 ‐14) Land Bank of the Phil 3.60 3.40 3.90 4.3015) Lazaro Bernardo Tiu 4.00 3.40 4.30 ‐16) Maybank‐ ATR 3.20 3.20 4.00 5.0017) MIB 3.40 3.20 3.50 3.5018) Mizuho 3.40 3.20 3.50 3.5019) RCBC 3.9‐4.2 3.4‐3.5 3.5‐4.5 3.0‐4.020) Robinson's Bank 3.5‐4.0 3.25‐3.75 4.0‐4.5 3.75‐4.2521) Union Bank of the Phil 3.70 3.20 3.30 3.8022) UBS 3.70 3.30 4.60 ‐
Median Forecast 3.8 3.4 4.0 4.0Mean Forecast 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.0High 4.1 3.8 4.9 5.0Low 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.5Number of observations 21 22 20 14
Memo Item:Government Target 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0
2012 2013
Private Sector Forecasts for Inflation, September 2012Annual Percent Change
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1.0‐2.0 2.1‐3.0 3.1‐4.0 4.1‐5.0 5.1‐6.0
percent share to
total
Probability Distribution For Analysts' Inflation Forecasts*2012‐2014
2012 2013 2014
*Probability distributions were averages of those provided by 16 out of 21 respondents. (Source: BSP Survey)
Results of the BES indicate a smaller number of respondents anticipating inflation to increase in the current quarter.
Based on the results of the BSP’s survey of private economists for September 2012, inflation is expected to be higher but still well within the 3.0‐5.0 percent target range for 2012‐2014. In particular, the mean inflation forecasts for 2012, 2013, and 2014 increased to 3.4 percent (from 3.1 percent in June), 3.9 percent (from 3.6 percent), and 4.0 percent (from 3.6 percent).4 Analysts attributed their upward adjustment of inflation forecasts on higher global commodity prices. Food prices are projected to increase on account of adverse weather conditions in major commodity producing countries while energy prices are also seen to advance amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. However, the continued appreciation of the peso is expected to temper the effects of imported inflation. Based on the probability distribution on the forecasts provided by 16 out of 21 respondents, there is a 77.8 percent chance that average inflation for 2012 could settle within 3.1‐4.0 percent, which is within the 4.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point target range for the year. Meanwhile, results of the September 2012 Asia Pacific consensus forecasts for the country showed slightly lower inflation projections for 2012 and 2013 relative to the June 2012 results. Respondents expect inflation to average at 3.3 percent (from 3.4 percent) in 2012 and 4.0 percent (from 4.1 percent) in 2013. Relative to the previous survey, a smaller majority of firm respondents expects inflation to go up during the survey quarter (from a diffusion index of 15.4 percent to 5.4 percent). Likewise, a smaller number of respondents expect inflation to increase in the next quarter (from 18.3 percent to 11.5 percent).
4 For Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, inflation is estimated to be at 3.7 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
6
Results of the CES show that consumers expect a lower inflation over the next 12 months.
Consumers project inflation to decelerate over the next 12 months. In particular, respondents anticipate inflation to drop to 7.5 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous survey round. Consumers expect lower inflation for the following items: transportation (from 13.5 percent to 8.9 percent); fuel (from 9.1 percent to 6.3 percent); fruits and vegetables (from 13.8 percent to 11.2 percent); clothing (from 8.0 percent to 6.3 percent); fish and seafood (from 11.5 percent to 10.0 percent); and water (from 8.0 percent to 6.5 percent).
International oil prices rise relative to end‐Q2 level.
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Price in US do
llars per barrel
Spot and Estimated Future Prices of Dubai Crude Oil*
*Futures prices derived using Brent crude futures data.
28 September 2012
29 June 20120
Forecasts for 2012 global oil demand are steady.
Energy Prices The average price of Dubai crude oil was broadly steady quarter‐on‐quarter (q‐o‐q) in Q3 2012. Concerns over the global economic slowdown, driven mainly by Europe’s continuing debt woes, dominated during the quarter, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. However, relative to end‐Q2 levels, oil prices were significantly higher in end‐Q3 2012 as oil prices recovered from the low levels reached in June and July. The increase in oil prices was driven by the decline in crude stockpiles in the US5 and weather‐related disturbances, as Hurricane Isaac threatened oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for nearly a third of US oil production. Oil prices were also supported by expectations of further monetary easing from major central banks to support their economies. Global energy authorities have maintained their 2012 forecasts for global oil demand in September 2012 relative to their June 2012 projections. In September 2012, the Energy Information Agency (EIA),6 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)7 and the International Energy Agency (IEA)8 projected global demand for 2012 to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (mmbd), 0.9 mmbd, and 0.8 mmbd, respectively, the same as in the previous quarter. The bulk of the projected increase in world oil consumption over the next
5 According to the EIA, the US registered four consecutive weeks of contraction in US commercial crude inventories in August on account of falling US crude oil production. 6 Energy Information Agency, September 2012 Short‐Term Energy Outlook, www.eia.doe.gov 7 OPEC September 2012 Monthly Oil Market Report, www.opec.org 8 IEA, September 2012 Oil Market Report, www.iea.org
7
two years is still expected to come from non‐OECD9 regions, particularly China, the Middle East, and Central and South America. Meanwhile, the estimated futures prices of Dubai crude oil in Q3 2012, which are based on movements in Brent crude oil futures, showed a higher path for 2012 onwards compared to the estimates in the previous quarter.
Local gasoline pump prices increase.
Domestic Retail Pump Prices (peso/liter)*End‐quarter prices
Quarter Gasoline** Kerosene Diesel LPG
2011Q1 54.60 53.11 47.10 37.27Q2
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
54.65
56.45
53.83
58.45
47.95
54.50
49.77
49.51
49.43
53.85
45.50
51.45
44.20
44.05
44.89
48.70
39.80
44.90
39.22
38.46
37.68
48.70
36.64
41.34
Q‐o‐Q 6.55 5.95 5.10 4.70Y‐o‐Y ‐1.95 1.94 0.85 2.88
* Average retail pump price for the Big Three oil companies—Caltex, Petron, and Shell, Metro Manila prices only.
** Average price for unleaded gasolineSource: Department of Energy (DOE)
Power rates rise due to higher generation cost from the spot market.
Tracking international oil price movements, domestic prices of gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and LPG inched up by P6.55 per liter, P5.95 per liter, P5.10 per liter, and P4.70 per liter in Q3 2012, respectively, relative to their end‐Q2 2012 levels. Likewise, domestic petroleum prices, except unleaded gasoline, were all higher during the review quarter compared to year‐ago levels. In particular, the prices of kerosene, diesel, and LPG increased by P1.94 per liter, P0.85 per liter, and P2.88 per liter, respectively. In contrast, unleaded gasoline prices declined by P1.95 per liter. Power
Electricity generation cost in Q3 2012 was generally higher due mainly to higher Wholesale Electricity Spot Market10 (WESM) charges. In July and August 2012, Meralco reported that the cost of power sold by power generating companies in the WESM rose, caused by the scheduled maintenance shutdown of the Malampaya pipeline. Likewise, the series of plant outages resulted in an increase in the generation cost charged by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). However, in September 2012, the higher generation charges of the National Power Corporation (NPC) was offset by the lower generation charges of the IPPs and lower spot market rates in the WESM. WESM charges fell resulting from lower demand for electricity brought by typhoon “Gener”, the monsoon rains, and the long weekends in August. The availability
9 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 10 The WESM is a venue where electricity produced by power generating companies is traded just like any other commodity.
8
Aggregate Demand and Supply
The economy expands robustly.
Q2 20125.9
Q2 20125.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2
year‐on‐year growth in percent
GDP and GNI in Real Terms
GDP GNI
of hydro‐electric power plants also contributed to the lower spot market prices. Similarly, the generation cost from IPPs went down as the Malampaya pipeline resumed its normal operations.
Potential sources of upside pressures on electricity charges remain, stemming from pending petitions with the ERC. These include: (1) Meralco’s petitions for the refund of generation over/under recoveries; (2) Power Sector Assets & Liabilities Management (PSALM) Corporation’s petition to recover stranded debt and contract costs through an increase in the universal charge; (3) PSALM’s second petition with the ERC for True‐Up Adjustments of Fuel and Purchased Power Costs (TAFPPC), and Foreign Exchange Related Costs (TAFxA) under the Rules for the Automatic Recovery of Monthly Fuel and Purchased Power Costs and Foreign Exchange Related Costs by the NPC; (4) the NGCP’s petitions to recover the costs of repair on damages caused by force majeure events such as typhoons “Bebeng” and “Juaning”, floodings and landslides in Mindanao (all in 2011), tropical storms “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” in 2009 as well as the bombings in Lanao del Norte in 2008; and (5) the NPC’s petitions to increase power rates in the universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME), and to recover shortfalls in UCME subsidy for CY 2010 under the True Up Mechanism with the corresponding adjustment of the UCME. Demand conditions have continued to strengthen with real gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 5.9 percent in Q2 2012. While slower than the 6.3 percent growth (revised) recorded in Q1 2012, this is an improvement from the 3.6 percent growth in the same period last year. On the expenditure side, GDP growth was led by household consumption and net exports, which contributed 3.9 percentage points (ppts) and 2.1 ppts, respectively. Meanwhile, on the production side, expansion was driven largely by services, which contributed 4.3 ppts to GDP growth.
9
Strong household consumption drives output growth.
5.7 pct
5.9 pct
2.3 pct
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2
year‐on‐year growth in percent in real terms
Domestic Demand
HH Consumption Govt Spending Capital Formation
Economic PerformanceAt constant 2000 pricesGrowth rate (in percent)
Sector 2011 2012Q2 Q1 Q2
By expenditure itemHousehold consumption 5.6 5.1 5.7Government consumption 6.0 20.9 5.9Capital formation ‐10.1 ‐25.4 2.3Fixed capital formation ‐9.5 3.9 8.5
Exports 0.2 10.9 8.3Imports ‐1.0 ‐3.2 4.4
Source: NSCB
Gross National Income (GNI) growth accelerated to 5.6 percent in Q2 2012 from the quarter‐ago and year‐ago rates of 5.1 percent (revised) and 2.4 percent, respectively. The higher GNI growth was due to the continued strong inflows of Overseas Filipinos’ (OF) remittances, which contributed to the 4.5 percent increase in net primary income. Meanwhile, seasonally‐adjusted q‐o‐q GDP growth declined to 0.2 percent in Q2 2012 from 3.0 percent (revised) in Q1 2012. The expansion recorded in the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishery (1.2 percent), and services sectors (1.5 percent) was offset by the contraction in the industry sector (‐2.4 percent). Aggregate Demand Household spending, accounting for 68.4 percent of GDP, expanded in Q2 2012 by 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in Q2 2011 given improved employment conditions and a generally low and stable inflation. Growth came from the positive contribution of all sub‐items, led by food and non‐alcoholic beverages consumption (6.5 percent). The other expenditure items that recorded higher growth compared to the previous year were communication (10.0 percent), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.1 percent), restaurants and hotels (8.5 percent), health (9.8 percent), recreation and culture (5.4 percent), transport (1.2 percent), alcohol, beverage and tobacco (5.8 percent), and clothing and footwear (4.5 percent). On the other hand, expenditures in miscellaneous goods and services (7.7 percent), furnishings (1.6 percent), and education (0.7 percent) posted decelerated growth.
Government consumption continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace of 5.9 percent in Q2 2012, relative to the quarter‐ago and year‐ago rates of 20.9 percent (revised) and 6.0 percent, respectively. Higher spending recorded under maintenance and other operating expenditures (MOOE), as well as the continued spending on a number of social protection programs such as the conditional cash transfer supported the growth in government consumption.
10
Investment recovers on strong construction and durable equipment growth.
Other demand indicators point to ongoing strength of the domestic economy.
Capital formation growth rebounded to 2.3 percent in Q2 2012 from the quarter‐ and year‐ago declines of 25.4 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. The strong growth in construction (9.2 percent) and durable equipment (8.7 percent) underpinned the recovery in capital formation. Public construction expanded robustly by 45.7 percent buoyed by the accelerated releases of funds for infrastructure spending. Similarly, durable equipment grew further on increased investments in most equipment groups, particularly transport (40.8 percent) and general industrial machinery (13.0 percent). Meanwhile, changes in inventories continued to post withdrawals. Inventory drawdown brought GDP growth lower by 1.1 ppts. Likewise, total exports went up by 8.3 percent in Q2 2012 due to the expansion in both exports of goods (7.9 percent) and services (9.9 percent). Merchandise exports grew on account of increased exports of non‐electronics, while growth in exports of services was driven by miscellaneous services (7.7 percent) and travel (21.3 percent). Similarly, imports growth rebounded to 4.4 percent after contracting for four consecutive quarters. Imports of goods recovered due to robust electronic (19.7 percent) and transport (53.7 percent) imports, while imports of services expanded due to strong travel (12.0 percent) and miscellaneous services (17.6 percent). Other Demand Indicators
Latest available data indicate continuing improvements in domestic demand conditions. The September PMI continues to point to expanding economic activity, particularly for the retail/wholesale sector. Results of the NSO’s MISSI also indicate that majority of the establishments surveyed continued to operate above 80 percent. Similarly, energy sales have expanded further, albeit a slower pace, driven by increased consumption from the industrial sector. The economy is also expected to gain support from favorable business and consumer sentiment ahead of the Christmas season and 2013 elections, and given the upbeat view on employment, income, and investment prospects in the country.
11
Implied land values continue to trend higher.
Office vacancy rates decrease due to limited supply of office space. Residential vacancy rates inch up slightly.
Property Prices Land Values, Metro Manila Data from Colliers International indicated that implied land values11 in the Makati CBD and Ortigas Center increased in Q2 2012 from their quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. Implied land values in the Makati CBD reached P284,635/sq.m., higher by 0.2 percent and 5.8 percent relative to the levels recorded in Q1 2012 and Q2 2011, respectively. Similarly, implied land values in the Ortigas Center rose by 0.5 percent q‐o‐q and 5.0 percent y‐o‐y to P131,427/sq.m. Land values are presently at about 67‐68 percent of their 1997 levels in nominal terms, but only about 32‐34 percent of their 1997 levels in real terms. Vacancy Rates, Metro Manila The monthly office vacancy rate in the Makati CBD stood at 4.0 percent in Q2 2012, representing a decline from the previous quarter level of 4.4 percent. The Q2 2012 vacancy rate was lower than the 4.2 percent rate a year ago. Despite the strong demand from the Offshoring and Outsourcing (O&O) industry, supply of office space in the Makati CBD remains limited due to the lack of developable land in the area. The Zuellig Building remains to be the only new office in the CBD which is to become fully operational in Q3 2012. Meanwhile, the residential vacancy rate in the Makati CBD at 11.8 percent in Q2 2012 was slightly higher than the previous quarter and Q2 2011 levels. Residential vacancy rate continued to rise, driven by the large supply of studio and one‐bedroom units, a segment most associated with Grades A and B buildings. Meanwhile, vacancy rate for the luxury segment declined further on sustained expatriate demand for luxury 3‐bedroom units amid limited supply.
11 In the absence of reported closed transactions, implied land values based on trends are used by Colliers International to monitor prices.
12
Office rental values continue to rise on strong demand from O&O sector. Likewise, residential rental values remain on an uptrend.
Rental Values, Metro Manila12
Monthly office rents in the Makati CBD reached P706/sq.m. in Q2 2012, higher by 3.1 percent and 6.8 percent than the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels, respectively.13 Office rental rates continued to rise as building owners experienced strong pricing power due mainly to limited office space amid strong demand from the O&O industry. Office rental values in Q2 2012 remained below the 1997 levels for premium grade offices in nominal terms. In real terms, office rental values were about 42.6 percent of the comparable levels in 1997.
Monthly rents for 3‐bedroom condominium units in the Makati CBD rose to P698/sq.m. in Q2 2012, representing a 6.1 percent growth from the previous quarter. Similarly, monthly rents for the 3‐bedroom segment were higher by 22.7 percent relative to the levels in the previous year as supply of luxury 3‐bedroom units in the Makati CBD remained limited. Residential rental values in Q2 2012 were above their 1997 levels in nominal terms but were only about 72.1 percent of their 1997 levels in real terms.
Jones Lang LaSalle estimates showed that average Grade A office rentals in the Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City (BGC) reached P9,338/sq.m. per annum in Q2 2012, an increase of 0.7 percent compared to the previous quarter and of 10.6 percent compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Office rental values continued to rise with sustained demand coming from the O&O industry and the expansion of the global back‐office operations of some multinational companies in the Philippines. Despite the large volume of upcoming supply of office space over the next few quarters, the sustained growth of the country’s O&O industry is expected to continue driving the demand for office space, which is expected to support a moderate increase in rental values amid the influx of new supply.
12Actual rentals for housing comprise 13.8 percent of the 2006‐based CPI basket. The NSO only surveys rentals ranging from around P300‐P10,000/month to compute rent inflation. However, the rental values discussed in this section pertain to high‐end rented properties, which may be considered as indicators of wealth and demand. 13 This was computed as the average of the rental values for the Premium, Grade A and Grade B segments. Premium refers to office space with capital values of P75,000/sq.m. and above; Grade A, between P65,000 and P75,000/sq.m.; and Grade B, P65,000/sq.m. and below.
13
Capital values for office buildings are higher in line with the rise in rental values.
Capital Values, Metro Manila Capital values14 for office buildings in the Makati CBD were higher than their quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. In line with the uptrend in office rental values in Q2 2012, Grade A office capital values in the Makati CBD rose to P83,404/sq.m., higher by 0.9 percent and by 4.2 percent compared to the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels, respectively. Office capital values in Q2 2012 were higher than the 1997 levels for grade A offices in nominal terms. Nevertheless, in real terms, office capital values were about 51.5 percent of the comparable levels in 1997. Capital values for luxury residential buildings in Makati CBD were also higher than their quarter‐ and year‐ago levels. Average prices for luxury residential condominium units increased by 1.2 percent q‐o‐q and 8.8 percent y‐o‐y in Q2 2012. Residential capital values were above their 1997 levels for luxury residential buildings15 in nominal terms. In real terms, residential capital values were about 58.2 percent of the comparable levels in 1997.
Vehicle sales increase on improved supply conditions.
Vehicle Sales16
Domestic vehicle sales grew by 8.5 percent y‐o‐y in Q3 2012 from 19.5 percent in the previous quarter. Aggregate vehicle sales reached 38,711 units, higher than the 35,663 units sold in the same period a year ago. According to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA), the growth of vehicle sales in the local assembly industry can be attributed to improving supply conditions,17 introduction of new models, and favorable domestic economic conditions.
14 Probable price that the property would have fetched if sold on the date of the valuation. The valuation includes imputed land and building value. 15 In terms of location, luxury residential units are located within the CBD core and have quality access to/from and have superior visibility from the main avenue. Meanwhile, in terms of general finish, luxury residential units have premium presentation and maintenance. 16 Vehicle sales starting 2011 were adjusted to exclude the sales of four (4) members which left CAMPI, namely, Hyundai, Volvo, Chevrolet, and Chana. 17 The local automotive industry sales in 2011 were hampered by the supply chain disruptions owing to the Great East Japan Earthquake and the floods in Thailand floods.
14
Energy sales grow at a slower pace.
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
in percent
Meralco Energy Sales
Q3 20124.3 pct
Capacity utilization in manufacturing remains above 80 percent.
• Sales of commercial vehicles18 in Q3 2012 continued to expand at double‐digit growth of 14.3 percent from 23.9 percent in the previous quarter. On a q‐o‐q basis, however, commercial vehicles declined by 3.5 percent in Q3 from 22.1 percent in the previous quarter.
• In contrast, passenger car sales decreased by 2.8 percent y‐o‐y from a growth of 10.4 percent in the previous quarter. Total passenger cars sold during the third quarter reached 11,651 units from 11,989 units in the same period a year ago. Compared to quarter‐ago levels, passenger car sales contracted by 4.7 percent.
Energy Sales
Energy sales of Meralco grew by 4.3 percent y‐o‐y in the first two months of Q3 2012, lower compared to the 10.1 percent in the previous quarter (April‐May), but higher than the 2.8 percent in the same period a year ago. The growth in energy sales was driven mainly by increased consumption from the industrial sector. Electricity consumption by the residential and commercial sectors likewise increased marginally. For residential users, the onset of the rainy season coupled with the upward adjustments in electricity rates led to a modest increase in electricity consumption. Meanwhile, the power disruptions caused by the intense monsoon rains in August pulled down electricity consumption in the residential sector and at the same time affected business activities for the commercial sector. Nonetheless, electricity sold to the industrial sector continued to grow at a double‐digit rate on the back of a growing customer base as well as increased activities in the construction and mining and quarrying sub‐sectors. Capacity Utilization
Based on the NSO’s MISSI, the average capacity utilization rate in the manufacturing sector was broadly steady in July 2012 at 83.3 percent from 83.4 percent a month ago. The largest proportion of the establishments surveyed continued to operate above 80 percent.
18 Commercial vehicles include Asian utility vehicles (AUVs), sports utility vehicles (SUVs), light commercial vehicles (LCVs), light trucks, heavy‐duty trucks, and buses.
15
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Monthly Average Capacity Utilization for ManufacturingIn percent
July 2012 = 83.3
Source: NSO
‐35.0
‐25.0
‐15.0
‐5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Volume of Production Value of Production
Source: NSO
Volume and Value Indices of Manufacturing ProductionIn percent
VAPI: 4.6 pctVOPI: 4.7 pct
Volume and Value of Production
Preliminary results of MISSI showed that the value of production index (VAPI) increased at a slower rate of 4.6 percent in July 2012, from 8.7 percent in June 2012. The major sectors that recorded significant growth in production were leather products, footwear and wearing apparel, furniture and fixtures, transport equipment, beverages, food manufacturing, fabricated metal products, wood and wood products, and textiles. Likewise, the volume of production index (VOPI) posted a slower growth of 4.7 percent in July from 11.2 percent in June. Production output in the above‐mentioned sectors also expanded during the month.
Lower seasonal demand weakens business sentiment in the current quarter.
Business Expectations SurveyIndex 2011 2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3Business Outlook IndexCurrent Quarter 47.5 31.8 35.3 38.7 40.5 44.5 42.5
Next Quarter 59.4 33.0 54.6 36.1 55.4 44.6 59.6
Source: BSP
Business Expectations Survey (BES)
Results of the Business Expectations Survey (BES) showed a less optimistic business outlook for Q3 2012. Overall confidence index (CI) for Q3 2012 declined by 2.0 index points to 42.5 percent from 44.5 percent in the previous quarter.19 While business outlook in NCR remained broadly steady, those in the AONCR turned less confident for the current quarter.
In particular, respondents’ weaker business outlook for the current quarter was attributed to the following factors: (a) lower seasonal demand during the quarter; (b) weather disturbances; (c) global developments such as the risk of a slowdown in China, slow economic recovery in the US, and the protracted sovereign debt and banking crises in the euro area; (d) volatile commodity prices; (e) expectations of oil price hike; and (f) continuous spread of banana diseases affecting the harvest as well as other related business activities in Region XI. The less optimistic sentiment for the current quarter mirrored the weaker views of businesses in the US, Germany, Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore.
19 The BES was conducted during the period 2 July‐13 August 2012 among 1,581 firms nationwide, drawn from SEC’s Top 7000 Corp.
16
In contrast, expectations of better employment conditions and higher income lift consumer sentiment. Consumer Expectations SurveyIndex 2011 2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Current Quarter ‐23.1 ‐24.1 ‐18.7 ‐20.6 ‐14.7 ‐19.5 ‐13.3
Next 3 months ‐6.2 ‐7.8 1.5 2.8 2.8 ‐2.4 6.0
Next 12 months 1.2 4.4 11.7 14.6 11.9 10.0 16.2
Source: BSP
Meanwhile, business sentiment for the next quarter (Q4 2012) rose by 15.0 index points to an all‐time high of 59.6 percent from 44.6 percent in the previous quarter with the outlook improving in both NCR and AONCR. The firms’ more bullish outlook in the next quarter (Q4 2012) was due to expectations of (a) continued increase in orders and projects leading to higher volume of production; (b) expansion of businesses and new product lines; (c) increased government infrastructure spending; and (d) brisker business during the Christmas season and the run‐up towards the 2013 elections. The prevailing low interest rates, manageable inflation, steady growth of OF remittances, and the Moody’s credit rating upgrade of the country also boosted business confidence for Q4 2012.
Consumer Expectations Survey
Results of the Q3 2012 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES)20 showed higher confidence indices (CI) for both the current and the next quarter, but a broadly steady outlook for the year ahead. Overall consumer CI in Q3 2012 rose to ‐13.3 percent from ‐19.5 percent in Q2 2012. The reasons for the bullish outlook during the current quarter are perceived greater availability of jobs and more employment (both local and abroad), higher income amid expectations of lower household expenditures due to broadly stable prices, and good harvests. Moreover, the improvement in consumer confidence in the Philippines mirrored the upbeat sentiment of consumers in Indonesia and Malaysia.
The robust consumer sentiment was carried over to the next quarter (from a CI of ‐2.4 percent to 6.0 percent) and the year ahead (from 10.0 percent to 16.2 percent) as the number of respondents with positive outlook increased citing their favorable expectations on employment, income, and investments in the country.
20 The CES is a quarterly survey of a random sample of 5,978 households in the Philippines.
17
PMI shows continuous expansion in economic activity.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
Mar‐11
Apr‐11
May‐11
Jun‐11
Jul‐11
Aug‐11
Sep‐11
Oct‐11
Nov‐11
Dec‐11
Jan‐12
Feb‐12
Mar‐12
Apr‐12
May‐12
Jun‐12
Jul‐12
Aug‐12
Sep‐12
Consolidated PMI Manufacturing
Retail/Wholesale Services
Series5
Purchasing Manager's Index
Purchasing Managers’ Index Results from the PMI survey suggest that the Philippine economy has continued to grow in Q3 2012, with the end‐quarter composite index21 at 57.9. This was slightly lower than the quarter‐ and year‐ago level of 58.6, but the overall PMI remained above the threshold (above 50).22 This signaled an economic expansion as all sectors still sustained its above 50 level in anticipation of the upcoming holiday season. Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expanding economic activity for September 2012 at 54.1 but slightly lower than the quarter‐ and month‐ago level of 55.0 and 55.5, respectively. Except for inventories and supplier deliveries, the other three manufacturing indices went down—new orders, production, and employment—compared to the same period a year ago. Nevertheless, majority of the sample of interviewed manufacturing companies23 still indicated unchanged business conditions (57.9 percent). On the other hand, 30.3 percent of respondents said that company performance is on an upturn while an average of 11.8 percent respondents said that their companies experienced a downturn, lower than the previous month. The survey of retailers and wholesalers (R/W)24 showed a higher PMI in September 2012 at 58.7 from 56.7 in the same period a year ago but was lower relative to the 59.3 as of June 2012. PMI for retailers and wholesalers rose due mainly to increased business activity in preparation for the upcoming holiday season. This was further evidenced by the uptick in the purchases and employment compared to the same period a year ago. In addition, the significant jump in inventories suggests stocking up due to expectations of higher future demand for products. Meanwhile, the survey showed that
21 Consolidated PMI is computed as the weighted average of the Manufacturing PMI, Retail/ Wholesale PMI, and Services PMI. Their respective Gross Value Added are used as weights. 22 The actual formula used to calculate the PMI assigns weights to each common element and then multiplies them by 1.0 for improvement, 0.5 for no change, and 0 for deterioration. As a result, an index above 50 indicates economic expansion, while an index below 50 implies a contraction. PMI surveys are conducted on the last week of the month. 23 The Manufacturing PMI for September 2012 was based on interviews with a statistical sample of 351 purchasing and supply managers. 24 The Retail/Wholesale PMI for July 2012 was based on interviews with a statistical sample of 105 purchasing and supply managers from top retail/wholesale companies.
18
Merchandise exports and imports grow further.
Exports of Goods (BOP data)Growth rate (in percent)
Commodity Group2011 2012
Q2 Q1 Q2
Coconut products 27.9 ‐38.9 ‐21.4
Sugar and Products 570.0 108.7 ‐28.4
Fruits and Vegetables 93.2 21.7 21.4
Other Agro‐based products 22.7 8.0 11.0
Forest products 22.2 50.0 18.2
Mineral products 85.1 ‐12.1 ‐32.3
Petroleum products 409.6 ‐17.9 ‐67.9
Manufactures ‐7.0 7.4 18.6
Special transactions ‐2.7 18.8 ‐38.4
Total Exports, as per NSO Foreign Trade Statistics
1.2 4.8 10.5
Conceptual and coverage adjustments
3.0 ‐1.5 44.1
Total Exports, BPM5 1.2 4.9 11.4
Source: BSP
most (62 percent) indicated that business conditions were unchanged while 37 percent of managers were optimistic. Only one percent indicated that their respective companies experienced a decline in business activities. Likewise, PMI Services25 in September 2012 remained firmly above 50 at 61.4 but was lower than the 62.1 in end‐Q2 2012. This was also slightly lower than the 63.7 PMI in the same period a year ago. Except for new orders, the other services indices posted declines. Survey to service firms showed a positive response rate (35 percent) with regard to business activity, while only 12 percent experienced a downturn. The remaining 53 percent indicated unchanged performance. External Demand Exports Merchandise exports improved further in Q2 2012, expanding by 11.4 percent, higher than the quarter‐ and year‐ago level of 4.9 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. The growth in exports was mainly due to manufactured goods, specifically, export earnings from shipments of machinery and transport equipment mostly bound for Japan and Indonesia. Another major contributor are exports of miscellaneous manufactured articles, which increased by 496.9 percent in Q2 2012 on account of higher shipments of other articles of plastics and complete wigs of synthetic textile materials to advanced countries, namely Japan, United States and Europe. Still under manufactures, exports of other manufactured products also increased significantly by 75.3 percent, a turnaround from the 4.9 percent contraction in the previous quarter. Likewise, exports of fruits and vegetables maintained its double‐digit growth due to the higher demand for bananas, canned pineapple, and pineapple concentrates. Other agro‐based products also improved, led by shipments of fresh and preserved fish. On a year‐to‐date basis, merchandise exports grew by 7.7 percent in the
25 The Services PMI for July 2012 was based on interviews with a statistical sample of 151 purchasing and supply managers from top service firms. Industries in the PMI services are hotels and restaurants including travel agency, telecommunications, provident and insurance companies, business and knowledge processing, transportation, banking activities and financial, real estate, hospitals and media and broadcasting.
19
Imports of Goods (BOP data)Growth rate (in percent)
Commodity Group2011 2012
Q2 Q1 Q2
Capital Goods ‐3.5 19.5 40.0
Raw Materials & Intermediate Goods
0.4 ‐10.0 ‐6.7
Mineral Fuels & Lubricants 18.6 33.5 1.3
Consumer Goods ‐2.9 6.7 3.2
Special Transactions ‐7.5 ‐23.2 ‐22.1
Total Imports1/ 2.4 3.9 2.4
Conceptual and coverage adjustments
157.1 38.2 81.9
Total Imports, BPM5 3.0 4.1 3.2
1/ Include valuation adjustments to NSO data
Source: BSP
0.7 pct
4.6 pct
7.6 pct
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2
year‐on‐year growth in percent in rea
l terms
GDP, Production Side
Agriculture Industry Services
first semester compared to 4.4 percent in the same period a year ago. Imports Likewise, merchandise imports continued to grow in Q2 2012 at 3.2 percent, albeit at the slightly slower rate relative to the previous quarter. Exports grew by 3.0 percent in the same period a year ago. Overall import growth can be mostly attributed to inward shipments of capital goods, which continued to post double‐digit growth at 40.0 percent, a turnaround from the 3.5 percent contraction in the same period in 2011. The increase in capital goods can be traced to imports of aircraft, ships, and boats, which grew by 449.4 percent in Q2 2012 due to the refleeting program of two local airline companies. Higher importation of telecommunication equipment and electrical machinery along with land transportation equipment26 likewise boosted capital goods imports. The growth in merchandise imports can also be traced to imports of consumer goods, particularly, durable goods, driven by increased demand for passenger cars, motorized cycle and home appliances. Year‐to‐date merchandise imports grew by 0.3 percent from 16.2 percent in the same period a year ago. Aggregate Supply The services sector, which comprised 58.1 percent of GDP, expanded by 7.6 percent in Q2 2012 from 5.6 percent in the same period a year ago. The growth of the sector was propelled by the expansion in all sub‐sectors, led by trade and repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods (7.3 percent), real estate, renting and other business activities (8.5 percent), and other services (8.3 percent). 27 The industry sector expanded by 4.6 percent after declining by 1.4 percent in Q2 2011. The sector, which contributed 1.5 ppts to GDP growth, was driven primarily by manufacturing (4.0 percent) and construction (10.0 percent). Industrial output, however, was pulled down by the contraction in mining and quarrying (‐7.3 percent) with three consecutive quarters of decline.
26 Excluding passenger cars and motorized cycle. 27 Real estate, renting and other business activities sector includes business processing outsourcing (BPO).
20
Economic PerformanceAt constant 2000 pricesGrowth rate (in percent)
Sector 2011 2012Q2 Q1 Q2
By industrial originAgri, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing 8.3 1.0 0.7Agriculture and Forestry 11.7 2.1 1.5Fishing ‐2.4 ‐3.8 ‐2.4
Industry ‐1.4 5.3 4.6Mining and quarrying 8.6 ‐10.0 ‐7.3Manufacturing 5.8 6.0 4.0Construction ‐24.2 3.6 10.0Electricity, gas and water supply ‐1.4 8.5 6.2
Services 5.6 8.1 7.6Transport., Storage, & Comm. 4.2 9.7 9.6Trade 2.5 7.8 7.3Finance 11.6 8.7 7.3Real estate, Rent, & Bus. Act. 8.4 7.9 8.5Government services 3.0 1.5 2.1Other services 5.9 9.9 8.3
Source: NSCB
Meanwhile, growth in agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishery (AHFF) continued to decelerate to 0.7 percent in Q2 2012 owing to the slowdown in agriculture and the decline in fishing. The favorable growth in palay (10.1 percent) was tempered by the double‐digit decline in sugarcane production (‐42.5 percent), pulling down the growth of agriculture to 1.7 percent from 11.0 percent in Q2 2011. Meanwhile, fishing output continued to fall (‐2.4 percent) due to adverse weather conditions and depletion of fish supply in some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao.
Labor Market Conditions
Unemployment declines slightly relative to previous year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
in percent
Unemployment and Underemployment
Unemployment UnderemploymentJuly 2012 22.7 pct
July 2012 7.0 pct
Based on the preliminary results of the July Labor Force Survey (LFS), the unemployment rate in July 2012 was estimated at 7.0 percent, slightly lower than the 7.1 percent registered in July 2011 but slightly higher than the 6.9 percent in April 2012. Meanwhile, the proportion of underemployed to total employed persons was higher at 22.7 percent in July 2012 from 19.1 percent in the same period last year and 19.3 percent in April 2012.28
The number of employed persons increased by 1.3 percent y‐o‐y in July 2012 to 37.6 million, driven largely by the growth in the services sector. Employment in the services sector was higher by 0.7 million, translating into a 3.4 percent growth. The services sector accounted for 53.3 percent of the total employed persons, while the agriculture and industry sectors employed 30.9 percent and 15.8 percent, respectively.
In terms of major occupation groups, the y‐o‐y increase in the employment level could be traced to the higher growth of technicians, service workers, workers in plants, trade workers, professionals, laborers, and special occupations workers.
28 Underemployed persons include all employed persons who express the desire to have additional hours of work in their present job or an additional job, or to have a new job with longer working hours. Visibly underemployed persons are those who work for less than 40 hours during the reference period and want additional hours of work.
21
II. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Domestic Liquidity and Credit Conditions Domestic liquidity continues to increase with the sustained expansion in NFA … … and steady growth in NDA. Credit activity remains brisk.
Money supply or M3 continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace of 6.2 percent in August 2012 from the end‐Q2 2012 growth of 7.1 percent. The growth of domestic liquidity was fueled by the expansion in net foreign assets (NFA), particularly in the BSP’s NFA position, as foreign exchange inflows from OF remittances and portfolio investments continued to increase. Meanwhile, the NFA of banks improved, relative to the previous quarter, as the decline in their foreign liabilities outpaced the decrease in their foreign assets. Banks’ foreign assets continued to contract due largely to the decline in loan receivables from foreign banks, while their foreign liabilities fell due in part to the decrease in placements and deposits made by foreign banks with local banks as well as in the bonds payable account of banks. Similarly, net domestic assets (NDA) increased by 3.1 percent in August from 5.8 in the previous quarter, buoyed by the steady expansion in claims on the private sector at 13.7 percent. The growth in claims on the public sector slowed to 3.0 percent from 5.6 percent, meanwhile, pulled down by a larger increase in deposits of the National Government (NG). Lending activity remained supportive of the positive outlook for domestic demand amid subdued global economic conditions. As of August 2012, outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks’ reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, continued to grow at double‐digit rates, albeit at a slower pace of 14.0 percent y‐o‐y relative to the 14.9 percent expansion at end‐Q2 2012 and the 21.7 percent increase at end‐Q3 2011. The robust growth of bank lending was driven largely by lending to the following productive sectors: wholesale and retail trade; real estate, renting, and business services; manufacturing; financial intermediation; transportation, storage, and communication; and electricity, gas, and
22
water. Meanwhile, consumer loans registered a growth of 15.8 percent as of August 2012, the same pace relative to end‐Q2 2012 but slower than the 17.9 percent expansion at end‐Q3 2011.
Overall credit standards for enterprises are unchanged.
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Tightened considerably 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tightened somewhat 0.0 5.6 7.1 5.0 5.9 3.6 8.0
Remained basically unchanged 100.0 94.4 92.9 90.0 94.1 92.9 84.0
Eased somewhat 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 3.6 8.0
Eased considerably 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Diffusion Index for Credit Standards 0.0 5.6 7.1 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0
Weighted Diffusion Index for Credit Standards 0.0 2.8 3.6 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0
Mean 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0
Number of banks responding 19.0 18.0 14.0 20.0 17.0 28.0 25.0
General Credit Standards to Enterprises (Overall)
Note: A positive diffusion index for credit standards indicates that more banks have tightened their credit standards compared to those that eased (“net tightening”), whereas a negative diffusion index for credit standards indicates that more banks have eased their credit standards compared to those that tightened (“net easing”).
Results of the Q3 2012 Senior Bank Loan Officers’ Survey29 showed overall unchanged credit standards for loans to both enterprises and households.30,31 In the previous quarter, credit standards for business loans were also unchanged while those for loans to households eased slightly.32 Lending to Enterprises The latest diffusion index showed overall unchanged lending standards for loans to firms, with the number of banks that indicated a tightening of their credit standards equal to the number of banks that indicated an easing. Results reflected the perceived stable asset portfolio of banks as well as banks’ generally steady outlook on the economy and on certain industries, unchanged financial system regulations, and banks’ unchanged tolerance for risk. In terms of borrower firm size, the results of the survey showed slight net easing of credit standards for top corporations and large middle‐market enterprises while credit standards for micro and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) appeared to have tightened slightly on account of more uncertain economic prospects for these firms. The overall unchanged credit standards for enterprises can also be traced to unchanged
29 Survey questions were sent to all commercial banks, except for one bank who requested not to be included in the survey given a loan portfolio that is dominated by loans to its own employees, with 28 banks responding, or a response rate of 77.8 percent. As of September 2011, commercial banks’ loans accounted for around 86.3 percent of the banking system’s total outstanding loans. Meanwhile, the banks that responded to the Q3 2012 survey accounted for about 81.6 percent of the total outstanding loans of universal and commercial banks for August 2012. 30 In the diffusion index approach, a positive diffusion index (DI) for credit standards indicates that more banks have tightened their credit standards compared to those that eased (“net tightening”), whereas a negative DI for credit standards indicates that more banks have eased their credit standards compared to those that tightened (“net easing”). 31 Prior to the Q1 2010 survey, the BSP looked only at the mode of responses in interpreting the results of the survey, i.e., the number of banks that tightened, loosened, or maintained credit standards. Since Q1 2010, the BSP started analyzing the results of the survey by looking at the percentage difference (“diffusion index”) between banks reporting that credit standards have been tightened and those reporting that they have been eased. 32 Meanwhile, most banks indicated generally unchanged bank credit standards for the fourteenth consecutive quarter starting Q2 2009, based on the percentage of responding banks indicating whether they tightened, loosened, or maintained their credit standards.
23
standards on collateral requirements along with steady maturities of loans provided to enterprises.33 Meanwhile, banks’ responses indicated a net narrowing of loan margins (except for micro enterprises) and increased credit line sizes across all firm sizes. The results also showed overall tighter standards on loan covenants and increased use of interest rate floors.34 Over the next quarter, respondent banks expect unchanged credit standards for enterprises (except for SMEs) given expectations of stable asset portfolio of banks, steady outlook on the economy and certain industries as well as unchanged tolerance for risk.
Credit standards for households are unchanged.
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Tightened considerably 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tightened somewhat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
Remained basically unchanged 91.7 88.9 91.7 100.0 100.0 90.0 88.2
Eased somewhat 0.0 11.1 8.3 0.0 0.0 10.0 5.9
Eased considerably 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Diffusion Index for Credit Standards 8.3 ‐11.1 ‐8.3 0.0 0.0 ‐10.0 0.0
Weighted Diffusion Index for Credit S 8.3 ‐5.6 ‐4.2 0.0 0.0 ‐5.0 0.0
Mean 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0
Number of banks responding 12.0 9.0 12.0 14.0 13.0 20.0 17.0
General Credit Standards to Households (Overall)
Note: A positive diffusion index for credit standards indicates that more banks have tightened their credit standards compared to those that eased (“net tightening”), whereas a negative diffusion index for credit standards indicates that more banks have eased their credit standards compared to those that tightened (“net easing”).
Lending to Households Survey results likewise pointed to unchanged overall credit standards for loans to households in Q3 2012. This was attributed largely to perceived stable asset portfolio of banks and their steady outlook on the economy. With regard to specific types of household loans,35 banks’ responses indicated unchanged standards on credit card loans. On the other hand, survey results showed a slight easing of credit standards for housing and personal/salary loans while responses on credit standards for auto loans continued to show a net tightening for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting stricter standards in terms of collateral requirements. Survey results showed unchanged standards on loan covenants, loan maturities, collateral requirements (except for auto loans), and loan margins (except for auto and personal/salary loans). Meanwhile, banks’ responses indicated increased credit line sizes, particularly for housing and credit card loans, and less use of interest rate floors for housing and auto loans. Over the next quarter, banks’ responses indicated some easing of credit standards on the whole, although those for credit card and auto loans are
33 The survey questionnaire identified six specific credit standards: (1) loan margins (price‐based); (2) collateral requirements; (3) loan covenants; (4) size of credit lines; (5) length of loan maturities; and (6) interest rate floors. 34 An interest rate floor refers to a minimum interest rate for loans. Greater use of interest rate floor implies tightening while less use indicates otherwise. 35 Loans extended to households include: (1) housing loans; (2) credit card loans; (3) auto loans; and (4) personal/salary loans.
24
Loan demand from both enterprises and households increases.
seen to tighten slightly in the near term. Respondent banks attribute the expected overall easing of standards on household loans to more aggressive competition from banks and non‐bank lenders, the improvement in borrowers’ profile as the economy continues to expand, and better performance of asset portfolio of banks. Loan demand The survey results also pointed to increased overall demand36 for loans from both enterprises and households (particularly housing loans). For loans to businesses, the higher loan demand was attributed to lower interest rates, an improved economic outlook, and increased accounts receivable financing and working capital needs. Meanwhile, the increased demand for household loans reflected higher household consumption, lack of other sources of funds, banks’ more attractive financing terms, and lower interest rates. The overall positive net change in demand for both business and household loans was consistent with data showing robust bank lending growth during the quarter. Looking ahead, respondent banks expect demand for credit from both businesses (except micro enterprises) and households (except credit card and auto loans) to continue to increase in the next quarter. Banks foresee an increase in loan demand from businesses owing largely to expectations of increased accounts receivable financing and working capital needs of borrowers in the next quarter. Similarly, the likely overall increase in households’ demand for credit was due largely to the increase in household consumption, lower income prospects, lower interest rates, and lack of other sources of funds.
36 “Diffusion index (DI) for loan demand” refers to the percentage difference between banks reporting an increase in loan demand and banks reporting a decrease. A positive DI for loan demand indicates that more banks reported an increase in loan demand compared to those stating the opposite, whereas a negative DI for loan demand implies that more banks reported a decrease in loan demand compared to those reporting an increase.
25
Credit standards for commercial real estate loans show slight tightening.
Special Questions on Commercial Real Estate Loans Respondent banks reported slight tightening of overall credit standards for commercial real estate loans in Q3 2012 after being unchanged for the past four quarters. This can be attributed to banks’ reduced tolerance for risk, less aggressive competition, deterioration in asset portfolio of respondent banks, and stricter financial system regulations. In terms of specific credit standards, responses pointed to stricter collateral requirements and loan covenants for commercial real estate loans along with unchanged loan maturities and credit line sizes. Results also showed narrower loan margins and less use of interest rate floors for this type of loan. Meanwhile, respondent banks’ loan‐to‐value ratios were steady during the quarter. Demand for commercial real estate loans in Q3 2012 appeared to be unchanged given clients’ steady working capital and accounts receivable financing needs amid steady flow of internally‐generated funds as well as banks’ unchanged financing terms and relatively stable interest rates. Moving forward, respondent banks’ expect a slight tightening of credit standards for commercial real estate loans and a slight decline in demand for the said type of loan.
Interest Rates Primary T‐bill rates fall.
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
91‐day T‐bill Rate 182‐day T‐bill Rate 364‐day T‐bill Rate 2011
Treasury Bill Rates
2010 2012
in percent
Primary Interest Rates During Q3 2012, the average 91‐day, 182‐day, and 364‐day T‐bill rates in the primary market declined to 1.46 percent, 1.83 percent, and 2.23 percent, respectively, from 2.33 percent, 2.31 percent, and 2.53 percent in Q2 2012. T‐bill rates fell, tracking the reduction in the BSP policy rate in July 2012 amid strong demand on the back of the country’s favorable macroeconomic indicators and as funds shifted from AEs to dynamic EM economies due in part to the continued quantitative easing programs in these economies.
26
The yield curve shifts downward.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3Mo 6Mo 1Yr 2Yr 3yr 4Yr 5Yr 7Yr 10Yr 20Yr 25Yr
Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012
Yields of Government Securities in the Secondary Market
Maturity
in percent
Interest rate differentials narrow.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day LIBOR (before tax) RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day T‐bill (before tax)
RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day LIBOR (after tax) RP 91‐day T‐bill vs. US 90‐day T‐bill (after tax)
Interest Rate Differentials
2010 2011 2012
quarterly
averages; in basis points
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
BSP RRP Rate US Federal Funds Target Rate
2010 2011 2012
BSP RRP Rate and US Federal Funds Target Rate
in percent
Yield Curve Secondary market yields of government securities (GS) for all tenors were lower as of end‐September 2012 relative to the end‐June 2012 levels, due to strong buying activity supported by high market liquidity and positive market sentiment following the release of the August 2012 fiscal data and a lower government borrowing program in Q4 2012. Debt paper yields were lower by a range of 0.6 bp (3‐year GS) to 157.7 bps (3‐month GS) compared to end‐ June 2012 levels. Relative to the end‐September 2011 levels, secondary market yields likewise declined with a range of 3.8 bps (1‐year GS) to 215.9 bps (3‐month GS) except for the 3‐year GS which rose by 1.5 bps. Interest Rate Differentials The average positive differentials between domestic and US interest rates, gross and net of tax, narrowed in Q3 2012 relative to the previous quarter, following the large decline in the average RP T‐bill rate. The average 91‐day RP T‐bill rate declined by 82 bps q‐o‐q, while the average US 90‐day T‐bill rate and US 90‐day LIBOR decreased by 1 bp and 5 bps, respectively. The decline in US interest rates was driven largely by the implementation of the US Fed’s third round of quantitative easing along with the continued accommodative monetary stance in large AEs. The positive differential between the BSP's policy interest rate (overnight borrowing or RRP rate) and the US federal funds target rate narrowed to 350 bps as of end‐Q3 2012 from 375 bps in end‐Q2 2012, reflecting the 25‐bps decrease in the BSP’s policy interest rate to 3.75 percent in 26 July 2012. Adjusted for the risk premium,37 the spread between the BSP’s policy rate and the US federal funds target rate rose to 238 bps in end‐September 2012 from 218 bps in end‐June. This development may be traced to the 45‐bp decline in the risk premium given the larger decline in the
37 The difference between the 10‐year ROP note and the 10‐year US Treasury note is used as proxy for the risk premium.
27
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Risk‐Adjusted Differentials
2010 2011 2012
in basis points
Real lending rate falls.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32010
Philippines' Real Lending Rate
2011 2012
in percent
10‐year RP yield compared to the 10‐year US yield. ROP bond yields were lower on improved investor appetite for emerging market debt on the back of the ECB’s new bond buying programme and on expectations of another round of quantitative easing by the US. US Treasury bond yields fell as investors sought the relative safety of US government debt amid renewed worries about the euro area fiscal condition. The real lending rate—measured as the difference between the average bank lending rate and inflation—declined to 2.9 percent in September 2012 from 4.0 percent in June 2012 due to the 80‐bp rise in the inflation rate along with the 30‐bp decline in the average bank lending rate. Inflation rate rose to 3.6 percent in September 2012 from 2.8 percent in June 2012 while the average bank lending rate fell to 6.5 percent from 6.8 percent in the same period. The real lending rate of the Philippines at 2.9 percent was the sixth highest in the sample of 10 Asian countries, with Indonesia recording the highest real lending rate at 7.1 percent.
Financial Market Conditions
Global financial market conditions improve but crisis in the euro area remains a source of risk.
Measures by AE monetary authorities to ensure adequate liquidity in their respective financial system as well as boost domestic economic activity helped restore confidence in financial markets across the globe. The accommodative monetary stance of AE central banks, coupled with continued favorable macroeconomic prospects in dynamic EMs, has also translated to significant flows to these economies fuelling sustained rallies in domestic equities market and the further narrowing of debt spreads. In the Philippines, the stock exchange index increased by 3.1 percent relative to previous quarter on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals as well as the US Fed’s announcement of a third round of quantitative easing program. Debt spreads also narrowed owing to increased demand for EM assets as monetary easing in AEs boosted demand for the Asia’s higher yielding assets. The peso likewise continued to appreciate, buoyed by steady forex inflows from OF remittance, portfolio investments, and foreign direct investments.
28
Local stocks continue to rally on strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
inde
x points
Quarterly Average PSEi
Q3 2012 5,248.72
Foreign investors continue to be net buyers.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
in b
illion
pes
os
Oversubscription of T‐bill Auctions
Stock Market The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) increased by 3.1 percent q‐o‐q, to average 5,248.72 index points in Q3 2012. The country’s credit rating upgrade by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) on 4 July to one notch below investment grade, policy rate reduction by the BSP, and announcement by the US Fed of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to help stimulate the US economy contributed to upbeat market sentiment. However, heightened risk aversion due to concerns over the ongoing European debt crisis and renewed geopolitical tension in Iran tempered equity gains. Nonetheless, the PSEi posted two historic highs in the third quarter before closing at 5,346.1 index points on 28 September. The average PSEi for the Q3 2012 was 21.1 percent higher compared to the year‐ago level of 4,334.36 index points. The index rally was accompanied by a 4.8 percent increase in total stock market capitalization to P10.53 trillion as of end‐September 2012 from P10.05 trillion in the previous quarter. Foreign investors were net buyers during the period, posting net purchases amounting to P21.7 billion during the quarter‐in‐review. This reflected strong investor risk appetite for local shares as well as confidence on the country’s favorable macroeconomic prospects. As a percent of total transactions, foreign investors accounted for 47.7 percent of all transactions during the period in review. Government Securities Results of the T‐bill auctions conducted in Q3 2012 reflected robust demand for short‐term GS on the back of favorable macroeconomic developments, such as the credit rating upgrade by S&P earlier in the quarter, and as funds flow from the US to emerging markets, including the Philippines, following the US Fed’s announcement of QE3. The strong demand for T‐bills during the quarter was likewise supported by the high liquidity in the financial system. The Auction Committee decided on a partial award of the offered amount in three out of the six scheduled auctions during the review quarter. All auctions were oversubscribed with average
29
Debt spreads narrow on increased demand for EM assets.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
in b
asis
poi
nts
Quarterly JPMorgan EMBI+ Sovereign Bond Spreads
EMBI+ Philippines EMBI+ Global
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
in basis points
Quarterly Philippine Senior 5‐Year CDS Spreads
Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
oversubscription amounting to P11.2 billion against the total offered amount of P7.5 billion for each auction. This is higher than the P3.6 billion average oversubscription in the previous quarter. Sovereign Bond and CDS Spreads The country’s bond spreads narrowed generally in Q3 2012 as the string of central bank actions from advanced and developing economies led to increased demand for EM assets such as ROPs. The EMBI+Philippine spreads, or the extra yield investors demand to hold Philippine debt securities over US Treasuries, tightened to 164 bps during the review period, from the previous quarter’s average of 210 bps. Similarly, the credit default swap (CDS) spread, or the cost of insuring the country’s 5‐year sovereign bonds against default, dropped to 138 bps from 167 bps in Q2 2012. Against those of neighboring economies, the Philippine CDS traded lower than Indonesia’s average of 166 bps but wider than Malaysia’s 106 bps and Thailand’s 127 bps. Debt spreads started easing in July on expectations of further monetary policy easing across the globe. The slower‐than‐estimated expansion in China and the slower growth of major AEs fueled speculation of more economic stimulus pushing bond yields down and debt spreads tighter. The meeting of EU finance chiefs on 9 July also led to market expectations of financial assistance for the recapitalization of ailing Spanish banks. On the domestic side, the credit upgrade on the Philippine sovereign bonds by S&P by one notch short of investment grade likewise buoyed market risk appetite. Spreads continued to contract in August as sentiment remained upbeat on expectations that the ECB may resume its government bond purchasing program to help bring down the borrowing costs of indebted euro area members such as Spain and Italy. Stronger US jobs data and hopes of China and US providing additional stimulus measures improved risk appetite for EM bonds, tightening spreads to its narrowest in the past four months.
30
The narrowing of debt spreads continued until the third week of September as monetary easing from the ECB, the US Fed, and the BOJ boosted demand for the region’s higher yielding assets. In the first week, the rally was stoked by the bond buying plan unveiled by the ECB to tackle the euro area’s ongoing debt crisis. Likewise, the US Fed’s aggressive move to ease monetary conditions further triggered a surge in demand for EM assets and sparked a flurry of new issues in the region. These led spreads to plunge to 14‐month lows as investors continued to hunt for yields. BOJ’s announcement to increase its asset purchase program on 19 September by about US$127 billion also helped heightened investors’ search for yields. However, spreads started to widen slightly by end of the quarter as the release of soft economic data for US, Europe, and China reminded the market of the global economy’s ongoing fragility. Investor concerns were also raised over the charged geopolitical situation between China and Japan over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea. Inflation concerns, both global and domestic, likewise added to market worries and expanded spreads further.
Banking System Key performance indicators show sustained resiliency of the banking system.
The Philippine banking system remained sound and resilient during the first nine months of 2012, marked by a growing resource base, improving asset quality, and higher loan‐loss provisioning ratios. The system’s capital adequacy ratios (CAR) of over 15 percent continued to remain comfortably above the BSP’s and the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) minimum requirements. Saving Mobilization Banks’ total deposits38 as of end‐June 2012 amounted to P4.2 trillion, 6.9 percent higher than the year‐ago level of P3.9 trillion. The continued growth in deposits reflected depositors’ sustained confidence in the banking system. Savings deposits registered an 8.5 percent growth and continued to account for nearly half of the
38 This refers to the total peso‐denominated deposits of the banking system.
31
U/KBs account for the largest share in the resource base. NPL ratio falls below pre‐Asian crisis level.
funding base. Meanwhile, demand and time deposits expanded by 9.7 percent y‐o‐y and 1.9 percent, respectively, from their levels a year ago. Institutional Developments The total resources of the banking system rose by 7.8 percent to P7.7 trillion as of end‐July 2012. The increase could be traced to the growth in loans and securities other than shares, indicative of the public’s continued trust in the banking sector. Universal and commercial banks (U/KBs) accounted for almost 90 percent of the total resources of the banking system. The number of banking institutions (head offices) fell to 723 as of end‐March 2012 from the quarter‐ and year‐ago levels of 726 and 746, respectively, indicating continued consolidation of banks as well as the exit of weaker players in the banking system. By banking classification, banks (head offices) consisted of 38 U/KBs, 71 thrift banks (TBs), and 614 rural banks (RBs). Meanwhile, the operating network (including branches) of the banking system increased to 9,186 in Q1 2012 from 9,050 in Q4 2011 and 8,870 during the same period a year ago, due mainly to the increase in the branches/agencies of TBs. The banking system’s asset quality, as measured by the NPL ratio, sustained its downtrend, easing to 2.8 percent as of end‐July 2012 from the 3.1 percent registered a year ago. Banks’ initiatives to improve asset quality along with prudent lending regulations helped bring the NPL ratio to below its pre‐Asian crisis level of about 3.5 percent. The lower NPL ratio reflected the 0.3 percent increase in the level of NPLs combined with the 11.4 percent expansion in the industry’s total loan portfolio (TLP). The NPL level increased to P107.3 billion as of end‐July 2012 from P107.0 billion during the same period in 2011. Meanwhile, the TLP expanded to P3.8 trillion from P3.5 trillion during the same period a year ago. Similarly, the NPL ratio of U/KBs declined further to 2.2 percent in July from 2.5 percent in the same period in 2011.
32
Banks remain adequately capitalized, exceeding prescribed levels set by the BSP and BIS.
Nonetheless, the Philippine banking system’s NPL ratio of 2.8 percent was higher compared to some of its neighbors like Indonesia’s 2.2 percent, Malaysia’s 2.6 percent, South Korea’s 0.5 percent, and Thailand’s 2.5 percent.39 The lower NPL ratios of Malaysia and South Korea could be attributed to the creation of publicly‐owned asset management companies (AMCs), which purchased the bulk of their NPLs, a practice not implemented in the Philippines. The loan exposures of banks remained adequately covered as the banking system’s NPL coverage ratio improved to 109.7 percent as of end‐July 2012 from 104.2 percent in the preceding year. The ratio was indicative of banks’ continued compliance with the loan‐loss provisioning requirements of the BSP to ensure adequate buffers against unexpected losses. Meanwhile, the CARs of the Philippine banking system remained robust despite continued global difficulties. The banking system registered average CARs of 16.7 percent on solo basis and 17.6 percent on consolidated basis as of end‐December 2011. The ratios rose slightly from the previous quarter as the growth in banks’ capital outpaced the growth in risk weighted assets (RWA). As a result, the industry’s CAR continued to exceed both the statutory level set by the BSP at 10.0 percent and the BIS at 8.0 percent. The Philippine banking system’s CAR on consolidated basis at 17.6 percent was higher than those of Thailand (15.0 percent), Malaysia (17.2 percent) and South Korea (14.0 percent). Indonesia posted the highest CAR in the region at 18.2 percent.40 Meanwhile, placements in the special deposit account (SDA) facility of the BSP increased by about 12.6 percent to reach P1,824.4 billion as of end‐September 2012 from the P1,620.4 billion posted during the same period a year ago. On the other hand, placements under the BSP RRP
39 Sources: Various central bank websites, IMF and financial stability reports, Indonesia (banking system, Q1 2012); Malaysia (banking system, Q1 2012); Thailand (banking system, Q1 2012); and Korea (banking system, Q4 2011). 40 Sources: Various central bank websites and financial stability reports, Indonesia (commercial banks, Q1 2012); Thailand (commercial banks Q1 2012); Malaysia (banking system, Q1 2012); and Korea (commercial banks, Q4 2011).
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window went up by 14.9 percent to P277.7 billion from the P241.7 billion in the same period a year ago.
Exchange Rate The peso remains strong amid ongoing global economic downturn.
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Q1 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2012
Q2 Q3
Php/US$
Quarterly Peso‐Dollar Rate
Q3 2012 Php41.90/US$
The relative strength of the peso was maintained in Q3 2012 despite headwinds stemming from the protracted global economic downturn and lingering crisis in Europe. The peso averaged at P41.90/US$1, appreciating by 2.1 percent from the previous quarter’s average of P42.78/US$1.41
On a y‐o‐y basis, the peso likewise appreciated by 2.0 percent from the P42.75/US$1 average in the third quarter of 2011. The sustained inflow of foreign exchange from OF remittances, export receipts, portfolio investments, and foreign direct investments remained the fundamental drivers of the peso’s continued appreciation. The peso was likewise anchored by the country’s sustained economic growth and sound macroeconomic fundamentals. The peso exhibited mixed trend as markets moved rapidly from risk‐on to risk‐off with the ongoing European crisis, global growth concerns, and central bank responses dominating the global economic environment. The peso started strong in July 2012, averaging at P41.91/US$1 from P42.78 in June on the strong rebound of the country’s exports sector.42 The peso was also bouyed by S&P's move to raise the country’s credit rating one notch below investment grade. In August, the peso weakened slightly to average at P42.05/US$1. The weakening of the peso was attributed in part to the sharp slowdown in exports as global demand decelerated.43 Likewise, sustained woes on global growth weighed down on the peso.44 In September, the peso regained losses, averaging stronger at P41.75/US$1 as shift in policy expectations–ECB’s move to implement its bond buying scheme, along with the US Fed’s QE program–spurred
41 Dollar rates or the reciprocal of the peso‐dollar rates were used to compute for the percentage change. 42 According to data by NSO, exports grew y‐o‐y by 19.7 percent in May 2012. 43 Export earnings in June 2012 amounting to US$4.310 billion went up by 4.2 percent from US$4.135 billion in June 2011. However, on a monthly basis, it decreased by 12.6 percent from US$4.932 billion in May 2012. 44 In the second quarter of 2012, Japan's economy grew just 0.3 percent which is lower than the pace expected.
34
Changes in Selected Dollar Rates
Year‐to‐dateAppr./(Depr.), in percent
29 Jun ’12* 28 Sep ‘12**
Philippine peso 4.1 5.1
Thai baht (onshore) ‐0.8 2.5Chinese yuan ‐0.9 0.1Malaysian ringgit ‐0.4 3.5South Korean won 0.5 3.7Singaporean dollar 2.0 5.9New Taiwan dollar 1.4 3.4Indonesian rupiah ‐3.7 ‐5.2Japanese yen ‐3.4 ‐0.8Indian Rupee ‐5.7 0.8
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters and PDEX•As of 4:00 p.m., 29 June 2012** As of 4:00 p.m., 28 September 2012
investor’s risk appetite and bolstered the appeal of EM assets.45 On a ytd basis, the peso appreciated against the US dollar by 5.1 percent on 28 September 2012 as it closed at P41.70/US$1, moving in tandem with the rest of the Asian currencies except for the Indonesian rupiah and Japanese yen which depreciated vis‐à‐vis the US dollar.46 Meanwhile, volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation of the daily average exchange rates eased slightly to 0.005 percent during the quarter‐in‐review from 0.01 percent in Q2 2012.
On a real, trade‐weighted basis, the peso lost external price competitiveness against the basket of currencies of major trading partners (MTPs) and competitor countries in both the broad and narrow series during the review quarter.47 This developed due to the combined impact of the peso’s nominal appreciation and the widening inflation differential relative to these baskets of currencies, leading to an increase in the real effective exchange rate (REER) index of the peso by 4.9 percent, 4.9 percent, and 5.6 percent, respectively.48
On a y‐o‐y basis, the peso lost external price competitiveness against the basket of currencies of MTPs due mainly to the peso’s nominal appreciation. Similarly, the peso lost external price competitiveness against competitor countries in both the broad and narrow series as the nominal appreciation of peso more than offset the narrowing inflation differential against these baskets of competitor countries. These led to a real appreciation of the peso by 8.4 percent, 13.6 percent, and 12.8 percent, respectively.
45 On 7 September 2012, the ECB outlined its long‐awaited bond‐buying programme to tackle the euro zone's debt crisis. Meanwhile, on 14 September 2012, the US Fed expanded its holdings of long‐term securities with open‐ended purchases of US$40 billion of mortgage debt a month in a third round of quantitative easing as it seeks to boost growth and reduce unemployment. 46 Based on the last done deal in the afternoon. 47 The basket of the major trading partners is composed of the currencies of US, Japan, the Euro area and the United Kingdom. The broad basket of competitor countries comprises the currencies of Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong while the narrow basket is composed of the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand only. 48 The REER index represents the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) index of the peso, adjusted for inflation rate differentials with the countries whose currencies comprise the NEER index basket. A decrease in the REER index indicates some gain in the external price competitiveness of the peso, while a significant increase indicates the opposite. The NEER index, meanwhile, represents the weighted average exchange rate of the peso vis‐à‐vis a basket of foreign currencies.
35
National Government Fiscal PerformanceIn billion pesos
January‐August Growth(%)2011 2012
Surplus/(Deficit) ‐34.5 ‐71.2 ‐106.4
Revenues 912.8 1,013.6 11.1
Expenditures 947.2 1,084.8 14.5
*Totals may not add up due to roundingSource: BTR
The fiscal deficit for the period January‐August 2012 reached P71.2 billion, P36.7 billion higher than the deficit incurred during the same period last year. This represented 38.8 percent of the P183.3 billion programmed deficit for Q1‐Q3 2012. Meanwhile, netting out the interest payments in the expenditures, the primary surplus during the period January‐August 2012 amounted to P149.9 billion, 7.5 percent lower than the level recorded in the same period last year. Revenue collections rose by 11.1 percent to P1,013.6 billion in January‐August 2012 compared to P912.8 billion in the same period last year and accounted for 86.6 percent of the Q1‐Q3 2012 program of P1,169.8 billion. The BIR and the BOC contributed P701.4 billion and P190.4 billion, respectively, to total revenues, increasing by 13.2 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, compared to their levels in same period last year. Likewise, revenues from other offices increased by 1.6 percent to P60.9 billion. By contrast, collections by the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) declined slightly by 0.4 percent to P60.9 billion from P61.1 billion in the same period in 2011. Expenditures during the period January‐August 2012 amounted to P1,084.8 billion, 14.5 percent higher than the disbursements in the same period in 2011, reaching 80.2 percent of the Q1‐Q3 2012 program of P1,353.2 billion. Excluding interest payments, total disbursements rose by 15.1 percent to P863.7 billion. Interest payments also went up by 12.5 percent to reach P221.1 billion.
III. FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
The January‐August 2012 fiscal deficit is higher compared to its year‐ago level.
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IV. EXTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Global economic prospects remain subdued. The US economy shows signs of improvement.
The JP Morgan Global All‐Industry Output Index rose to 52.5 in September from 50.9 in August and 51.7 in July, as growth in the services sector offset the weaknesses in the manufacturing sector. Business activity in the services sector remained robust amid an increase in the level of incoming new business. On the other hand, manufacturing production declined anew due to slower inflows of new orders and weaker global trade. Overall production expanded in the US, UK, Brazil, and Russia, while output declined in the euro area and Japan. Moving forward, weak demand and rising inflationary pressures could temper the performance of the global economy.49 Third estimates of the US real GDP indicated a 1.3 percent q‐o‐q output growth in Q2 2012, slower than the 2.0 percent recorded in Q1 2012. The deceleration primarily reflected the slowdown in personal consumption expenditure as well as in both residential and nonresidential fixed investments, which was offset partly by the smaller decrease in federal government spending and by the acceleration in exports.50 The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion level at 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August and 49.8 in July. New orders increased in September, although overall production remained weak amid continued concern over soft global business conditions.51 Inflation rose slightly to 1.7 percent y‐o‐y in August from 1.4 percent in July due largely to the increase in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, unemployment eased to 7.8 percent in September from 8.1 percent in August and 8.3 percent in July.52 The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 70.3 in September from 61.3 in August as consumers became more optimistic
49 JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9795 50 Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/pdf/gdp2q12_3rd.pdf. The third estimate was also lower than the second estimate of 1.7 percent released in August 2012. 51 Institute for Supply Management, “September 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business”, 1 October 2012, http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm 52 The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that the unemployment rate has held in a narrow range of 8.1 to 8.3 percent between January and August 2012.
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Economic activity in the euro area contracts.
about the short‐term outlook for business conditions and employment despite continuing uncertainty.53 The Thomson‐Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment also rose to 78.3 in September from 74.3 in August and 72.3 in July as consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions improved.54 Real GDP fell by 0.5 percent y‐o‐y and by 0.2 percent q‐o‐q in Q2 2012.55 The rate of decline in many member states, including Spain, Italy, Portugal, and the UK, accelerated in Q2 2012 from the previous quarter, while output growth eased in Germany. The composite PMI for the euro area signaled further contraction, decreasing steadily to 46.1 in September from 46.3 in August and 46.5 in July. This reflected the continued decline in new work intakes in the manufacturing and services sectors across the region. Declines in output and employment also indicated limited prospects for improvement in economic conditions moving forward.56 The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area also decreased further to 85.0 in September from 86.1 in August and 87.9 in July, driven by weakening confidence in retail and services amid deteriorating production expectations. Confidence among consumers also weakened due to heightened unemployment fears. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 11.4 percent in August, the same rate as in June and July 2012.57 Inflation rose slightly to 2.6 percent in August from 2.4 percent in July, with fuels for transport, heating oil, and gas and electricity showing the largest upward impact on the y‐o‐y headline inflation rate.58
53 “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Increases in September, Index Improves Nine Points”. 25 September 2012. http://www.conference‐board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm 54 “Confidence Posts Significant Gain”. 28 September 2012. http://thomsonreuters.com/content/financial/pdf/i_and_a/438965/2012_09_28_confidence_posts_significant_gain.pdf 55 Second estimates. Eurostat news release 127/2012 dated 6 September 2012. 56 Markit Eurozone Composite PMI—final data, http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10168. 57 Eurostat news release 138/2012 dated 1 October 2012. 58 Eurostat news release 120/2012 dated 16 August 2012. The flash estimate for September is 2.7 percent, per news release 137/2012 dated 28 September 2012.
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The Japanese economy loses momentum. Manufacturing declines further in China. Economic activity picks up in India, but inflation remains high.
Real GDP grew by 0.2 percent (revised) q‐o‐q in Q2 2012, lower than the 1.3 percent in the previous quarter. Public investment on account of continuing restoration and rehabilitation efforts continued to drive growth. However, domestic demand was noted to have eased, while exports slowed down amid a strengthening yen and faltering growth in key export markets. Moreover, the seasonally adjusted PMI signaled further contraction in manufacturing output at 48.0 in September from 47.7 in August and 47.9 in July. Output decreased anew due to a continued decline in new orders, reflecting muted external demand from China, Europe, and the US. Consumer prices declined by 0.4 percent in August and July after falling by 0.2 percent in June. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was broadly steady at 4.2 percent in August compared to 4.3 percent in July and June. Real GDP growth eased to 7.6 percent y‐o‐y in Q2 2012 from 8.1 percent in the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI continued to reflect deterioration in operating conditions at 47.9 in September from 47.6 in August, as new domestic businesses and new export orders continued to decline during the month. Inflation rose slightly to 2.0 percent in August from 1.8 percent in July due largely to higher food prices. Real GDP grew by 5.5 percent in the April to June 2012 quarter, up slightly from 5.3 percent in the previous quarter, given the significant growth in construction and services. The composite PMI likewise rose to 55.0 in September from 54.3 in August and 54.4 in July, as stronger demand fueled the increase in volume of new orders and new work in both the manufacturing and services sectors. However, inflation remained a concern, rising to 7.6 percent in August from 6.9 percent in July as the decline in the prices of vegetables failed to offset the increase in the prices of cereals and fuels.
39
Major central banks expand their monetary accommodation.
Citing subdued inflationary pressures and weak global economic prospects, major central banks were of the view that their current policy settings remained appropriate to promote domestic growth and keep inflation at a stable path. Of the 15 central banks that the BSP monitors, 13 decided to maintain their respective policy rates in September. In addition, some major central announced further measures in August and September to help ensure adequate liquidity and thereby promote growth in their countries. In August, the ECB launched the Outright Transactions Mechanism, a bond‐buying program focused on the shorter end of the yield curve. In September, the US Fed announced QE3 program, which would raise its total holdings of long‐term securities by about US$40 billion per month through the end of 2012. The BOJ also increased the total size of its Asset Purchase Program by 10 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen, with purchases expected to be completed by end‐2013. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also announced an additional US$34.6 billion cash injection to the banking system in August, tempering expectations of another reduction in reserve requirements. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to reduce its cash reserve requirement ratio (CRR) by another 25 bps in September, bringing the cumulative CRR reduction to 150 bps since January 2012.
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Spillovers from China: Impact on Philippine Inflation In view of China’s economic size as well as its role in the global economy, economic developments in China are often viewed as having a significant impact on inflation trends in other countries. The potential spillover channels are as follows: Impact of prices of imported goods from China on the domestic consumption basket. In Kamin et.
al. (2006), they found that exports from China to 26 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries lowered annual import price inflation by 0.25 percentage point (ppt) on average in 1993‐2002;
Impact of competitive pressures coming from China’s purchasing power parity and labor cost channels. According to Cote and Resende (2008), price and wage setting conditions in China are estimated to have reduced global inflation by 0.07 ppt per year in 1990‐2006 and by 0.17 ppt per year in 2001‐2006; and
Impact of China’s demand on global prices. China’s increased demand for food and non‐food
commodities could create price pressures in the global market. China’s impact on inflation: Regional case Osorio and Unsal (2011) simulated a case of economic overheating in China. Using the Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) method, quarterly data from Q1 1986 to Q1 2010 were used to simulate 2 scenarios: one, a case where there is a 1‐percent shock to China’s GDP; and the second is a 1‐percent shock to commodity prices following a shock to China’s gross domestic product (GDP). The results of scenarios are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.
Table 1: Impact of 1‐percent shock to China’s GDP
Country/region Change in inflation (%)
(Average per quarter in first year) China 0.7Asia 0.2ASEAN countries 0.2Developed Asia (a) 0.05Asian NIEs (b) 0.1
a/ Composed of Japan, Australia and New Zealand b/ Asian Newly Industrialized Economies refer to Hongkong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan
Table 2: Impact of 1‐percent shock to China’s commodity prices (Following a shock to GDP)
Country/region
Change in inflation (%)(Average per quarter in first year
unless indicated otherwise) Asia 0.10 *ASEAN countries 0.25Developed Asia (a) 0.01Asian NIEs (b) Less than 0.015
(*) Cumulative in first year a/ Composed of Japan, Australia and New Zealand
b/ Asian Newly Industrialized Economies refer to Hongkong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan
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Both simulations indicate that macroeconomic developments in China appear to have a relatively stronger impact on ASEAN inflation relative to the rest of the world, with a one‐percent rise (fall) in China’s GDP and China’s commodity prices [following a positive (negative) shock to GDP] increasing (decreasing) ASEAN inflation by 0.20 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively. This could be attributed to the extensive trade linkages of ASEAN economies with China. ASEAN economies are also relatively more open as well as are dependent on oil and food imports, and thus more exposed to global inflationary shocks. China’s impact on inflation: The Philippine case Using the June 2012 version of the Macroeconomic Model for the Philippines (MMPH), policy simulations were conducted on the possible impact of economic developments in China on Philippine inflation. The MMPH is a small open‐economy, forward‐looking semi‐structural model, based on a general equilibrium framework. The MMPH also has an external demand block―proxied by the US economy―and an endogenous monetary policy reaction function which reacts to the output gap and the deviation of the inflation forecast from the inflation target. Two simulations were undertaken using the MMPH. The first simulation is an external demand shock through the impact of China’s slowdown on the US economy. The second simulation combines the impact of China’s slowdown on the US economy and on international commodity prices. In the first simulation, a hypothetical scenario of a 1‐percentage point (ppt) decline in China’s GDP growth over one quarter was assumed. The results indicate that a 1‐ppt decline in China’s growth leads to a corresponding 0.13‐ppt contraction in external demand, as proxied by the US economy. The contraction in external demand creates deflationary pressures of 0.04 ppt on average in the first year. Monetary policy eases to help cushion the impact of weak external demand on the domestic economy, but only minimally. Thus, GDP growth still declines slightly by 0.01 ppt on average in the first year (Table 3).
Table 3: Change in PHL inflation and GDP (After a 0.13‐ppt decline in external demand)
Year 1 Year 2Inflation ‐0.041 ‐0.035GDP growth rate ‐0.009 0.014
In the second simulation, a combination of the external demand shock and international commodity price shock was assumed. To approximate the impact of a 1‐ppt reduction in China’s GDP growth on international commodity prices, a vector autoregression (VAR) model was estimated consisting of variables ordered as follows: China’s GDP growth rate, foreign inflation proxied by US inflation, growth rate of international commodity index, imported price inflation, and domestic inflation rate. The first quarter coefficient is then introduced into the MMPH as the international commodity price shock. The estimate from the VAR and the estimated impact of China’s 1‐ppt slowdown on the US economy are both introduced into the MMPH through the external block. The results of the second simulation indicate that a 1‐ppt slowdown in China’s GDP growth leads to a decline in international commodity prices of 2.0 ppts. Combined with the 0.13‐ppt contraction in external demand (in the first simulation), the estimated decline in domestic inflation is more pronounced at 0.14 ppt, although the dampening effect on GDP is more modest at 0.004 ppt, in the first year (Table 4). The more modest decline in GDP could be attributed to the expected stronger monetary policy response, as policy rate reacts to higher deflationary pressures from the combination of external demand and international commodity price shocks. This has a mitigating impact on domestic GDP.
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Table 4: Change in PHL inflation and GDP
(After a 2.0 ppt decline in commodity prices and 0.13 ppt contraction in external demand)
Year 1 Year 2Inflation ‐0.138 ‐0.072GDP growth rate ‐0.004 0.016
The results of the above policy simulations suggest that China’s economic developments have a marginal impact on both domestic inflation and output growth in the Philippines. Conclusion The rise of China as a key player in the global economy has made its influence on global inflation more tangible. China’s impact on other countries’ inflation would depend on the latter’s bilateral trade with China and their reliance on imports of basic goods. As such, accounting for the influence of external developments and global commodity prices on domestic inflation is necessary. At the same time, however, monetary authorities must still consider the nature of the shock (i.e., temporary or permanent) as well as the relative weight of imported commodities in the consumer price index in making the appropriate policy response. References Cote, D. and C. de Resende (2008) “Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China,” Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2008‐35. Kamin, S.B., M. Marazzi, and J.W. Schindler (2006) “The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices,” Review of International Economics, 14(2), 179‐201, 2006. Osorio, C. and D.F. Unsal (2011) “Inflation Dynamics in Asia: Causes, Changes, and Spillovers from China,” IMF Working Paper No. 2011‐257.
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V. MONETARY POLICY DEVELOPMENTS Early in the quarter, the BSP eases policy rates…
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2012
in percent
BSP Policy Rates
Overnight RRP Rate Overnight RP rate
During its policy meeting on 26 July 2012, the BSP decided to reduce its key policy interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and special deposit accounts (SDAs) were also reduced accordingly. The July cut was the third time in 2012, bringing the cumulative policy rate reduction to 75 bps. The Monetary Board’s (MB) policy rate decision was based on its assessment that price pressures have been receding, with risks to the inflation outlook slightly skewed to the downside. Latest baseline forecasts indicated that inflation was likely to settle within the lower half of the 3‐5 percent target for 2012 and 2013, as pressures on global commodity prices were seen to abate further amid weaker global growth prospects. Inflation expectations were also moderating, and remained at levels consistent with the inflation target range. However, pending electricity rate adjustments, expectations of higher prices for some food products due to the prolonged drought in the US, and firm domestic demand pressures were seen to pose some upward pressures on inflation. In addition, the MB was of the view that the risks to global economic activity were likely to tip towards the downside in the coming months. In the advanced economies, financial market stress continues to build up, and there remain concerns about the prospects for urgent fiscal adjustments and reforms. Although the Philippine economy can rely on the resilience of domestic spending to sustain its growth, adequate policy support should remain in place as a buffer against strong global headwinds. On balance, therefore, the benign inflation outlook provided room for a reduction in policy rates as a pre‐emptive move against the risks associated with the global slowdown.
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… and thereafter maintains its monetary policy stance.
Meanwhile, with the view that prevailing monetary policy settings were appropriate, supported by the manageable inflation outlook and robust domestic growth, the BSP, during its policy meeting on 13 September 2012, decided to maintain its policy rates at 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and special deposit accounts (SDAs) were also maintained accordingly. The reserve requirement ratios were kept steady as well. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment remained benign, with the risks to the inflation outlook appearing to be broadly balanced. Meanwhile, market expectations of inflation continued to be in line with the inflation target. Weak global economic prospects continued to temper the inflation outlook, as a possible easing in global demand could contribute to moderate international commodity prices. The sustained stability of the peso is also seen to cushion the effects of imported inflation. Nonetheless, the Monetary Board was mindful of potential upside risks to the inflation outlook, including pending electricity rate adjustments and expectations of higher foreign prices for some grains due to adverse weather conditions in major commodity producing countries. Moreover, underlying demand‐side pressures continue to be firm, supported by ample domestic liquidity and brisk credit activity.
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VI. INFLATION OUTLOOK
BSP Inflation Forecasts Emerging baseline forecasts indicate that inflation could settle within the inflation target range over the policy horizon.
The emerging baseline forecasts continue to point to average inflation settling at the lower half of the government‐announced target range of 3‐5 percent for 2012 and at around the same target range in 2013. Moreover, initial estimate indicate a within‐target inflation rate for 2014. Results of the latest forecasting exercises of the BSP were slightly higher than in the previous quarter’s forecasts due mainly to the uptick in the actual inflation caused by a string of typhoons and floods that hit the country in recent months. Higher prices of petroleum products as well as higher utility rates also contributed to the increase in actual inflation during the review period. Nevertheless, the BSP sees the risks to inflation outlook to be broadly balanced. On one hand, the key downside risk to inflation continues to be the fragility of the global economy, with the real sector activity as well as market outlook for global oil consumption largely dependent on it. The continued strengthening of the local currency should also help temper the impact of imported inflation. On the other hand, upward pressures on international food prices as well as petitions for electricity rate adjustments constitute the upside risks to inflation.
Demand Conditions Output growth continued to be robust as shown in the latest National Income Accounts (NIA). The domestic economy grew by 5.9 percent y‐o‐y in Q2 2012, significantly higher than the average market forecast for the quarter of 5.3 percent and the 3.6 percent growth recorded in Q2 2011. This brought the first semester real GDP growth rate to 6.1 percent, higher than the 4.3 percent registered for the same period last year. The higher‐than‐expected expansion was sustained by accelerated government spending (infrastructure and capital outlays), improved net exports and expansion of the tourism sector, supported by a low inflation environment, increased business
46
confidence, and an overall positive domestic economic outlook.59 Results of the July 2012 MISSI suggest continued expansion in economic activity in the review period. The latest composite PMI also signaled further improvements in output, particularly for retail/wholesale and services sectors. Similarly, energy sales of Meralco recorded a growth of 4.3 percent in the first two months of Q3 2012 driven mainly by higher consumption in the industrial sector. Preliminary results of the latest BSP business and consumer expectations surveys showed mixed views for the current quarter but an upbeat outlook on the next quarter. The business respondents’ more positive outlook in the next quarter (Q4 2012) was due to expectations of: (a) continued increase in orders and projects leading to higher volume of production; (b) expansion of businesses and new product lines; (c) increased government infrastructure spending; and (d) brisker business during the Christmas season and the run‐up towards the 2013 elections. Meanwhile, consumer confidence was higher for the current and the next quarter due to the following factors: a) greater availability of jobs and more employment both local and abroad, b) higher income and lower household expenses due to expectations of broadly stable prices, and c) good harvests. Nonetheless, on the whole, the pace of domestic economic activity remains subject to significant uncertainty, owing mainly to continued weakness in the euro area as well as other major economies like the US and China. Supply Conditions The AHFF sector expanded at a slower pace of 0.7 percent in Q2 2012 from 8.3 percent recorded in the same period a year ago. The slow growth was due mainly to contractions in the fisheries and livestock production, offset slightly by higher poultry and crop production.
59 National Economic & Development Authority, “Second Quarter 2012 Economic Performance”, 29 August 2012
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Output gap estimate widens.
In the international market, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index (FPI) averaged 213 points in August, unchanged from its level in the previous month. The price of sugar recorded the biggest decline this month but was compensated by increases in meat and dairy prices. Going forward, the FAO expects a relatively comfortable global supply‐demand balance for rice and coarse grains as it projects supply of these commodities to increase to 480.1 million tons (2.6 percent) and to 1,207.3 million tons (3.7 percent), respectively, in 2012. For wheat production, the FAO’s latest forecasts point to a decline of 3.6 percent in world production in 2012 compared to its year‐ago level due to declines in projected wheat production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, Morocco and the EU. After falling sharply in June, the monthly average price of Dubai crude oil recovered in July as Norway, Western Europe’s largest crude oil exporter, faced a shutdown of its oil production platforms due to an energy strike. Oil prices advanced further in August on account of falling crude oil stockpiles in the US amid tensions in the Middle East and on expectations of a favorable resolution to the European debt crisis. Prevailing oil prices, however, are still below the year‐to‐date peak price registered in March. Looking ahead, the balance of risks to world oil prices remains skewed to the upside given the geopolitical risks and possibilities of supply disruptions. The balance of demand and supply conditions as captured by the output gap (or the difference between actual and potential output), provides an indication of potential inflationary pressures in the near term. Inflation tends to rise (fall) when demand for goods and services exert pressure on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services, i.e., when the output gap is positive (negative). Based on the latest GDP data, preliminary estimates yielded an output gap of 4.5 percent in Q2 2012, higher than the 4.0 percent output gap from the previous quarter. The expansion in the output gap emerged as growth in actual output outpaced the growth in potential output. As actual output continues to grow above trend,
48
domestic demand conditions could lead to stronger inflationary pressures over the short to medium term. Key assumptions used to generate the BSP’s inflation forecasts The BSP's baseline inflation forecasts generated from the BSP’s single equation model (SEM), and the multi‐equation model (MEM) are based on the following assumptions:
(a) NG fiscal deficits for 2012 ‐ 2014, which are consistent with the DBCC‐approved estimates;
(b) BSP’s overnight RRP rate at 3.75 percent from October 2012 to December 2014;
(c) Dubai crude oil price assumptions, which are consistent with the futures prices of oil in the international market;
(d) Annual increase in nominal wage of 2.2 percent in November 2012; 5.5 percent in June 2013 and 5.2 percent in June 2014;
(e) Real GDP growth, which is endogenously‐determined in the BSP’s MEM; and
(f) Foreign exchange rate, which is endogenously‐determined in the BSP’s MEM through the purchasing power parity and interest rate parity relationships.
Risks to the Inflation Outlook The current fan chart suggests that inflation is broadly stable over the policy horizon.
The risks to the inflation outlook may be presented graphically through a fan chart. The fan chart depicts the probability of different inflation outcomes based on the central projection (corresponding to the baseline forecast of the BSP) and the risks surrounding the inflation outlook. The latest projections show that inflation is expected to settle slightly below the mid‐point of the target range from the fourth quarter of 2012
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The risks to the inflation outlook appear to be broadly balanced. The uncertainty of global economic prospects and its impact on domestic economic activity is the primary downside risks to inflation.
until 2013. Compared to the previous report, the latest fan chart presents a slight upward shift in the inflation projections for 2012 and 2013. The higher inflation path for 2012 and 2013 incorporates the impact of the higher‐than‐projected inflation outturns from July to September 2012 as a result of the rise in domestic fuel prices, upward adjustments in electricity rates, and price pressure brought by weather related disturbances during the quarter. Meanwhile, the initial forecasts for 2014 show that the central inflation projection could settle near the low‐end of the medium‐term target range of 4.0 percent ± 1.0 percentage point. The latest fan chart also shows that there are uncertainties further out as shown by the widening bands of the chart over time. Latest assessment of current price trends and risks to future inflation suggests that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook appears to be broadly balanced. This view is captured in the latest fan chart by the relatively equal bands above and below the central projection. The continued uncertainty of global economic prospects and its impact on the domestic economy is the primary downside risk to inflation. At the same time, the strengthening of the peso could help temper the prices of imported commodities. • The IMF has reduced anew its economic
growth projections, reflecting the intensification of the downside risks to the world economy. Over the near term, a deepening of the euro area crisis and the threat of a fiscal cliff in the US continue to pose considerable risks to the global outlook. Consequently, demand‐side price pressures could weaken as developments in the external sector dampen domestic economic activity.
• Over the near term, the peso could continue to draw support from the country’s strong macro fundamentals. Sustained inflows of remittances, alongside expectations of strong capital inflows given low foreign interest rates and investors’ search for yields suggest that
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Supply‐side risks for oil and non‐oil commodities and additional petitions for electricity rate adjustments are the principal upside risks to inflation.
the prospective trend in the peso‐dollar rate leans towards appreciation of the domestic currency. In turn, the stronger peso represents a downside risk to inflation as it helps reduce the cost of imported goods and services.
The upside pressures on oil and non‐oil commodity prices as well as additional petitions for electricity rate adjustments are the principal upside risks to inflation. • The stabilization in oil prices from the peak in
March 2012 reflects in part weaker OECD consumption. Nonetheless, the risk to petrol prices is still tilted to the upside given geopolitical concerns and possibilities of supply disruptions.
• Global food prices appear elevated as food demand remains robust amid concerns over production disruptions due to weather disturbances. While price pressures are not evident in all major food crops, the near‐term balance of risks to food prices is skewed to the upside.
• Additional electricity rate adjustment on top
of those already incorporated in the baseline forecasts remains as an upside risk to the inflation outlook.
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The fan chart is a graphical presentation of the probability of various outcomes for inflation over the forecast horizon. The black line depicts the central projection, which corresponds to the BSP’s baseline inflation forecast. Its darkest band covers the lower and upper 25 percent of the probability distribution. Each successive pair of bands is drawn to cover a further 25 percent of probability, until 75 percent of the probability distribution is covered. Lastly, the lightest band covers the lower and upper 90 percent of the probability distribution. The bands widen (i.e., “fan out”) as the time frame is extended, indicating increasing uncertainty about outcomes. The bands in outline depict the inflation profile in the previous report. The shaded area, which measures the range of uncertainty, is based on the forecast errors from the past years. In greater detail, it can be enhanced by adjusting the level of skewness of the downside and upside shocks that could affect the inflationary process over the next two years in order to change the balance of the probability area lying above or below the central projection.
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VII. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MONETARY POLICY STANCE
Inflation remains within‐target over the policy horizon with risks to the outlook appearing to be broadly balanced. The supply‐side disruptions due to adverse weather conditions and recent global commodity price trends have contributed to overall price pressures in Q3 2012. Overall growth momentum is still expected to remain at a fairly robust level.
The latest baseline scenario shows average headline inflation staying within the lower half of the inflation target range over the medium term. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the latest projected inflation path is slightly higher due largely to higher‐than‐projected inflation outturns from July to September 2012 owing to weather disturbances and higher fuel prices. Consistent with the trajectory of the BSP’s inflation projection, inflation expectations based on forecast surveys by the BSP and Asia Pacific Consensus continue to lie within the middle to lower portion of the target band for 2012‐2014, although the directions of forecast revisions have been mixed. The risks around the inflation projections now appear to be broadly balanced. The elevated non‐oil commodity prices in the international market as well as additional petitions for utility rate adjustments constitute the key upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, downside risks to inflation outlook relate mainly to possibly weaker external demand prospects and continued appreciation of the peso which could temper imported inflation. Average headline inflation rose to 3.5 percent in Q3 2012 from 2.9 percent in the previous quarter, albeit lower than the 4.8 percent posted a year ago. Similarly, core inflation increased to 4.1 percent in Q3 2012 from the quarter‐ago rate of 3.7 percent, but was lower than the year‐ago rate of 4.4 percent. Nevertheless, reflecting the transitory nature of the weather‐related supply shock in August, price pressures appear to have eased in September, although the prospects of a secular decline are uncertain given the continuing volatility in global commodity prices. Domestic demand has continued to strengthen in Q2 2012. Although GDP grew slower in Q2 relative to Q1, it is still above the long‐run average growth rate of GDP. In the second half of the year, growth is expected to be supported by strong business and consumer confidence and other domestic growth drivers. The latest PMI continues to point to expanding economic activity, particularly for the retail/wholesale and services sectors. Growth is
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There is room for monetary policy to provide additional support to output growth against the consequences of continued weak external demand amid uncertain global prospects.
also likely to be supported by election‐related expenditure and the government’s accelerated spending over the next several months. However, the BSP is also mindful of the downside risks to output because of weaker external prospects. Growth in H2 2012 could be hampered by tenuous global economic conditions. Recent developments in the global economy also suggest that risks remain and global growth is likely to remain tepid. On balance, while the domestic underpinnings of Philippine economic growth remain firm, additional policy support amid a benign inflation outlook could help ward off the risks associated with weaker external demand by encouraging investment and consumption. Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor closely the evolving balance of risks to both inflation and output to ensure that monetary conditions remain in line with price stability while supportive of non‐inflationary economic growth.
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SUMMARY OF MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS
EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
2008 JAN 31 5.00 7.00 The Monetary Board (MB) decided to reduce by 25 basis points (bps) the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and special deposit accounts (SDAs) were also reduced accordingly. In its assessment of macroeconomic conditions, the MB noted that the latest inflation forecasts indicated that inflation would fall within the 4.0 percent ± 1 percentage point target range in 2008 and the 3.5 ± 1 percentage point target range in 2009.
MAR 13 5.00 7.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates at 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The MB also decided to implement immediately the following refinements in the SDA facility: (1) the closure of existing windows for the two‐, three‐, and six‐month tenors; and (2) the reduction of the interest rates on the remaining tenors. The interest rates on term RRPs and RPs were also left unchanged.
APR 24 5.00 7.00 The MB kept the BSP’s key policy interest rates at 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs and RPs were also left unchanged.
JUN 5 5.25 7.25 The MB decided to increase by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5.25 percent for the RRP facility and 7.25 percent for RP facility as emerging baseline forecasts indicate a likely breach of the inflation target for 2008 along with indications that supply‐driven pressures are beginning to feed into demand. Given the early evidence of second‐round effects, the MB recognized the need to act promptly to rein in inflationary expectations. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
JUL 17 5.75 7.75 The MB increased by 50 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 5.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
AUG 28 6.00 8.00 The MB increased by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 6.0 percent for the overnight borrowing or reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 8.0 percent for the overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also increased accordingly.
OCT 6 6.00 8.00 The MB kept the BSP’s key policy interest rates unchanged at 6.0 percent for RRP facility and 8.0 percent for the RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
NOV 6 6.00 8.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 6 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 8 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
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EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
DEC 18 5.50 7.50 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 50 bps to 5.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also adjusted accordingly. Latest baseline forecasts showed a decelerating inflation path over the policy horizon, with inflation falling within target by 2010. This outlook is supported by the downward shift in the balance of risks, following the easing of commodity prices, the moderation in inflation expectations, and the expected slowdown in economic activity.
2009 JAN 29 5.00 7.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 50 bps to 5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 7 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also adjusted accordingly. Latest baseline forecasts showed a decelerating inflation path over the policy horizon, with inflation falling within target by 2010. The MB based its decision on the latest inflation outlook which shows inflation falling within the target range for 2009 and 2010. The Board noted that the balance of risks to inflation is tilted to the downside due to the softening prices of commodities, the slowdown in core inflation, significantly lower inflation expectations, and moderating demand.
MAR 5 4.75 6.75 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. Given possible upside risks to inflation, notably the volatility in oil prices and in exchange rates, increases in utility rates, and potential price pressures coming from some agricultural commodities, the MB decided that a more measured adjustment of policy rates was needed.
APR 16 4.50 6.50 The MB reduced key policy rates by another 25 bps to 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility, effective immediately. This rate cut brings the cumulative reduction in the BSP’s key policy rates to 150 bps since December last year. The current RRP rate is the lowest since 15 May 1992. Meanwhile, the interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. In its assessment of macroeconomic conditions, the MB noted that the latest baseline inflation forecasts indicated a lower inflation path over the policy horizon, with average inflation expected to settle within the target ranges in 2009 and 2010. In addition, the MB considered that the risks to inflation are skewed to the downside given expectations of weaker global and domestic demand conditions and a low probability of a significant near‐term recovery in commodity prices.
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EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
MAY 28 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. Baseline forecasts indicated a lower inflation path over the policy horizon, with average inflation expected to settle within the target ranges in 2009 and 2010. In addition, the Monetary Board considered that, on balance, the risks to inflation are skewed to the downside given expectations of weaker global and domestic demand conditions and a low probability of a significant near‐term recovery in commodity prices.
JUL 9 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility, effective immediately. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were reduced accordingly. This is the sixth time since December 2008 that the BSP has cut its policy interest rates.
AUG 20 OCT 1 NOV 5 DEC 17
4.00
6.00
The MB kept key policy rates unchanged at 4 percent for the RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending RP facility. The decision to maintain the monetary policy stance comes after a series of policy rate cuts since December 2008 totaling 200 bps and other liquidity enhancing measures.
2010
JAN 28 MAR 11 APR 22 JUN 3 JUL 15 AUG 26 OCT 7 NOV 18 DEC 29
The MB decided to keep the BSP's key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the RRP facility and 6 percent for the RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
2011 FEB 10 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
MAR 24 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to increase by 25 bps the BSP’s key policy interest rates to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also raised accordingly. The MB’s decision was based on signs of stronger and broadening inflation pressures as well as a further upward shift in the balance of inflation risks. International food and oil prices have continued to escalate due to the combination of sustained strong global demand and supply disruptions and constraints.
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EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
MAY 5 4.50 6.50 The MB decided to increase the BSP’s key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also raised accordingly. Baseline inflation forecasts continue to suggest that the 3‐5 percent inflation target for 2011 remains at risk, mainly as a result of expected pressures from oil prices.
JUN 16 4.50 6.50 The MB decided to keep policy rates steady at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. At the same time, the Board decided to raise the reserve requirement on deposits and deposit substitutes of all banks and non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by one percentage point effective on Friday, 24 June 2011. The MB's decision to raise the reserve requirement is a preemptive move to counter any additional inflationary pressures from excess liquidity.
JUL 28 4.50 6.50 The MB maintained the BSP's key policy interest rates at 4.5 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.5 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. At the same time, the Board increased anew the reserve requirement on deposits and deposit substitutes of all banks and non‐banks with quasi‐banking functions by one percentage point effective on 5 August 2011. The MB's decision to raise the reserve requirement anew is a forward‐looking move to better manage liquidity.
SEP 8 OCT 20 DEC 1
4.50 6.50
The MB decided to keep the overnight policy rates steady. At the same time, the reserve requirement ratios were kept unchanged.
2012 JAN 19 4.25 6.25 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.25 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly The MB's decision is based on its assessment that the inflation outlook remains comfortably within the target range, with expectations well‐anchored and as such, allowed some scope for a reduction in policy rates to help boost economic activity and support market confidence.
MAR 1 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to reduce the BSP's key policy interest rates by another 25 bps to 4.0 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6.0 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. The MB is of the view that the benign inflation outlook has allowed further scope for a measured reduction in policy rates to support economic activity and reinforce confidence.
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EFFECTIVITY DATE LEVELS (IN %)
MONETARY POLICY DECISION RRP OVERNIGHT RP OVERNIGHT
APR 19 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged.
JUN 14 4.00 6.00 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 4 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 6 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains manageable. Baseline forecasts continue to track the lower half of the 3‐5 percent target range for 2012 and 2013, while inflation expectations remain firmly anchored. At the same time, domestic macroeconomic readings have improved significantly in Q1 2012.
2012 JUL 26 3.75 5.75 The MB decided to reduce the BSP’s key policy interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also reduced accordingly. This is the third time in 2012 that the BSP has cut its policy rates. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that price pressures have been receding, with risks to the inflation outlook slightly skewed to the downside. Baseline forecasts indicate that inflation is likely to settle within the lower half of the 3‐5 percent target for 2012 and 2013, as pressures on global commodity prices are seen to continue to abate amid weaker global growth prospects. At the same time, the MB is of the view that prospects for global economic activity are likely to remain weak.
SEP 13 3.75 5.75 The MB decided to keep the BSP’s key policy interest rates steady at 3.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or RRP facility and 5.75 percent for the overnight lending or RP facility. The interest rates on term RRPs, RPs, and SDAs were also left unchanged. The MB’s decision was based on its assessment that the inflation environment remains benign, with the risks to the inflation outlook appearing to be broadly balanced.
The BSP Inflation Report is published every quarter by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The report is available as a complete document in pdf format, together with other general information about inflation targeting and the monetary policy of the BSP, on the BSP’s website:
www.bsp.gov.ph/monetary/inflation.asp If you wish to receive an electronic copy of the latest BSP Inflation Report, please send an e‐mail to [email protected]. The BSP also welcomes feedback from readers on the contents of the Inflation Report as well as suggestions on how to improve the presentation. Please send comments and suggestions to the following addresses:
By post: BSP Inflation Report
c/o Department of Economic Research Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
A. Mabini Street, Malate, Manila Philippines 1004
By e‐mail: [email protected]