Q220 Earnings Presentation€¦ · Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020. 2 General: This presentation...

13
Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020

Transcript of Q220 Earnings Presentation€¦ · Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020. 2 General: This presentation...

Page 1: Q220 Earnings Presentation€¦ · Q2 Earnings Presentation July 2020. 2 General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains historical information, ... Q117 Q217

Q2 Earnings

Presentation

July 2020

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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains

historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and

statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial

results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its

entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the

information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s)

management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods

ended December 31, 2019, (Annual MD&A) and for the interim period

ended June 30, 2020 (Q2 MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and

interim financial statements for such periods available on SEDAR

(www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the

information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-

looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply

Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities

laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable

guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of

assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some

cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-

looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not

expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”,

“intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that

certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”,

“will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that

refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of

future events or circumstances contain forward-looking information.

Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts

but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and

projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature,

forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks

and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the

possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking

statements will not occur. Actual outcomes and results of these

statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters

described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our Annual MD&A and in

our Q1 MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or

projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in

public filings with securities regulatory authorities.

.

Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-

looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly

update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or

oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required

by applicable securities laws.

Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain

non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt

to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized

meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be

comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further

information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the

“Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information:

Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any

external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or

endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the

information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by

third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by

WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as

to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,

completeness or correctness of this information or any other information

or opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars,

unless otherwise indicated.

Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm”

mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means

southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this

presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our

most recent Annual Report.

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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity-based compensation, and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions

Adjusted EBITDA Q2-20 Q1-20

Lumber $ 156 $ 106

Panels 20 8

Pulp & Paper 10 11

Corporate/Other (2) 2

Total $ 184 $ 127

Adjusted EBITDA

margin

14.40% 10.06%

$ Millions

Q2-20 Q1-20

Sales $ 1,276 $ 1,195

Cost and Expenses 1,193 1,182

Operating earnings 83 13

Finance Expense (13) (16)

Other 9 12

Earnings before Tax $ 67 $ 9

Tax recovery (provision) (19) 3

Net earnings $ 48 $ 12

Improved pricing and volume in lumber segment

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44Q2 EBITDA Reconciliations

Improved pricing and costs over Q1

$ millions

Lumber EBITDA Reconciliation

Consolidated EBITDA Reconciliation

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55Q2-20 versus Q1-20

$ millions unless

otherwise indicatedQ2 2020 Q1 2020 Change

Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,424 1,501 (77) Temporary curtailments offset by increased productivity

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,591 1,426 165 Catch up from Q1 delays, increased export shipments

Adjusted EBITDA $184 $127 $57 Lumber price and cost benefits, insurance claim gain in panels

Cash flow from operations $439 ($122) $561Improved earnings, seasonal working capital liquidation and

income tax refunds

Capital Expenditure $60 $59 $1 Major projects on track

Net Debt

Net Debt to Capital

$939

28%

$1,325

33%

($386)

(5%)Debt paid down from operating cash flow

Cumulative duties on deposit US$ $436 $407 $29 Rates set to adjust in Q4 2020

Earnings and cash flow improved despite uncertain conditions

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66Liquidity

Available liquidity improved to $800 million

Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.

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77

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

$250

$260

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

$340

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J F M A M J J A S O N D

M S

tart

s

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2018 2019 2020

Seasonally adjusted:

2018: 1,250

2019: 1,290

Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity

$B

4 Q

tr M

ovin

g I

mpro

vem

ents

and R

epairs

4 Q

tr M

ovin

g r

ate

of

Change

Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census Source: PPPC

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

to

nn

es

World Chemical Pulp Shipments

2018 2019 2020

2018: 61.1

2019: 63.5

2020: 25.9 YTD0

100

200

300

400

500

600

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Exports

2018 2019 2020

2018: 5,967

2019: 4,968

2020: 1,655 YTD

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88U.S. Housing Situation

Supply deficit, aging stock

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Mill

ions

Source: U.S. Census, FEA and https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/index.html

1982 is the only year before 2008 with

fewer units than 1.2 million units

Supply of new U.S. housing (1968-2019)

27 27 29 29 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 39 40

20

30

40

50

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Ye

ars

in

ag

e

US Housing Stock Age

A deficit in housing has accumulated over

the last 10+ years

Low levels of new construction has led to an

aging housing stock

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99Favourable Demographics

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96

MIL

LIO

NS

US Population by Age (at July 1, 2020)

Source: FEA and https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-detail.html

29-30 year-olds are the

largest age groups in 2020

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1010Supply conditions

Source: FEA

Lumber supply constraints

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census, FEA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Imports

2018: 1,5482019: 1,508

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5

10

15

20

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20

Bill

ion B

oard

Fe

et

Bill

ion B

oard

Fe

et

North America Lumber Supply (Production)

North America BC US South US West Coast East of Rockies

R-axis

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1111McDavid, Florida Update

Project Cost: $23 million USD

Project Scope: Replace the existing primary

breakdown line with new

technology capable of operating

50% faster than the previous

system with a reduced

headcount and improved

recovery and grade mix.

Project Timeline: The project was commissioned

in Q4 2019 with a month of

downtime required to integrate

the new equipment into the

existing mill. The project was

completed on time and on

budget.

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1212McDavid, Florida Production (mfbm / hour)

- Achieved targeted production per hour

- Continuing to improve recovery

- Premium grade improved 64%,

2&btr % continues to rise

63% increase

Manufacturing Costs ($/mfbm)

- Per Unit Costs continue to decline with

improved production

- Startup costs have been spent

Human Resources (hourly headcount)

- Achieved headcount reduction

- Productivity improvement of 60%

- Improved working conditions

19% decrease

10% decrease

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1313Summary

✓ Lumber and panel markets came

back faster than expected

✓ Supply chain inventory position

taking time to rebuild

✓ Liquidity substantially

improved, leverage reduced

✕ Lower printing and writing paper

demand for pulp creating

pressure on pulp markets

✓ Continue to operationalize the

benefits of prior year capital

✓ Preserve and manage liquidity

conservatively

✓ Complete Dudley and Opelika

projects

Q2 2020 Recap Balance of Year Focus