PV Market Trends and Technical Details

All of US has Suitable Solar Resource for Large Scale PV Deployment

The Dramatic Drop in the Price of PV Modules

US PV Installations and Average System Price 2000 - 2013

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

Ground Mount Solar FarmSolar Farms occupy 4 to 6 Acres per MW AC – 5 MW shown

1.5 MW Rooftop PV System – Ballast Mounted

Utility Scale PV – Price Breakdown

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report - Q2 2014

Recent Installed PV Capacity by Market SegmentSource: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

Ten Largest PV Systems in Operation - 2013

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

State PV Installation Rankings 2012-2014

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

PV Installations by State and Sector

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

Recent NC PV Installations by Market Segment

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

Average Installed Price by Market Segment

Source: GTM Research, US Solar Market Insight Report 2013 Year-In-Review

NREL Solar Radiation Manual - Raleigh, NC

• Fixed Tilt Optimal Annual Average Solar Radiation : 5 sun hours/day• 1-Axis Tracking: 6.2 sun hours/day ( 24% increase)• 2-Axis Tracking: 6.4 sun hours/day (28% increase)

DC Rating vs. AC Rating• PV System Ratings may be DC or AC so you need

clarification • AC Rated Capacity = DC Nameplate Capacity x

DC to AC Derate Factor• DC Nameplate Capacity is the sum of the module

nameplate nominal DC power ratings at Standard Testing Conditions (not real world)

• DC to AC Derate Factor takes into account real world operating conditions, system inefficiencies and conversion losses from DC to AC power.

• Typical DC to AC Derate factors for commercial and industrial scale PV systems are 85% to 90%

• Example: 6 MW DC PV Farm– 87% DC/AC Derate Factor– 5.22 MW AC Rated Capacity

DC to AC Derate Factor

• Today’s inverters have very high DC to AC conversion efficiencies

• Modules now have high nameplate power tolerance

Typical 500 kW Inverter - 96% Efficient

Solar PV Capacity Factor

• Capacity Factor: Annual generation divided by generation that would result from system operating at full capacity all day everyday

• Capacity Factor = (AC Rated Capacity x Annual Solar Hours (kWh/m2 day) x 365 days) ÷ (AC Rated Capacity x 8760 hours/year)

• Example: Fixed-tilt 6 MW DC PV farm is 5.22 MW AC PV farm– CF = (5.22 MW AC x 5 kWh/m2 day x 365) ÷

(5.22 MW AC x 8760)– CF = 0.208

6 MW DC PVWatts Simulation

Real World PV Performance vs. PV Watts Simulation – A 2010 NC AE Study

Small PV is < 10 kW, Large is PV >10 kW Small PV system PVWatts simulations vs.

Actual generation analysis actual 24% less mostly due to shade

Large system PVWatts simulations vs. Actual generation analysis Actual is in line with PV Watts because

shading isn’t a large problem for large PV

PV Capacity Factor• Solar PV Capacity Factor is lower

than conventional power plant Capacity Factors due to Diurnal cycle, Weather and Season– Daily effect on PV

• No sun for about half of each day• Daylight sunshine equivalent to Full sun for

about 1/3 of day at best

– Seasonal effect on PV (Raleigh NC, Latitude tilt PV)

• Winter solar energy is 67% of summer solar energy

• Spring and fall solar energy are 95% of summer

PV Capacity Factor

– Weather effect on PV energy (kWh)• Sunny day generates 100%• Partly cloudy day generates 50 to 75%• Partly cloudy day generates 50 to 75%• Rainy day generates 10 to 25%

AE 2012 Large Solar PV Generation Study

• 22 Systems

• 18 kW to 1.1 MW

• 5.8 MW total Cap.

AE 2012 Large Solar PV Generation Study2011 Operation Study Results

Annual Capacity Factor is 19% (Tracking is 20%)

Summer Capacity Factor is 24% (Tracking is 28%)

Spring and Fall is 20% (Tracking is 20%) Winter is 13% (Tracking is 13%)

Solar Plant vs. Nuclear Plant with Capacity Factor of 90%

2500 MW Solar Plant will generate same Power as 2500 MW Nuclear Plant around noon hour in Summer

2500 MW Solar Plant will generate as much Annual Energy as 550 MW Nuclear Plant

In summer, Solar PV generation coincides well with grid load due to increased building cooling load in middle of day

Solar output is proportional to solar radiation so it doesn’t produce rated power except near noon on clear sunny days

Nuclear Plant has to run near full capacity 24/7 Daily load on Grid fluctuates widely over the day Nightime nuclear capacity may be unneeded Example: Duke Energy’s Bad Creek 1000 MW Pumped

Storage Hydro Power Plant is used to balance day and night load with Oconee 2500 MW Nuclear Plant

Renewable and Grid Scale Energy Storage We need large scale energy storage

integrated with solar and wind if we want to increase Renewables to exceed 25% of Grid Capacity Pumped Storage Hydro is one proven

technology Duke Energy’s Bad Creek 1000 MW Pumped

Storage Hydro Power Plant

Widely Distributed Utility Controlled Demand Management acts like Grid Scale Energy Storage

Smart Grid improvements promise to improve integration of renewables, energy storage and load management

Typical Daily, Weekly and Seasonal Utility Power Variation (Texas)

Hourly loads from ERCOT 2005 (NREL)

Load-Following Generators

• To mange highly fluctuating system loads, load-following generators such as hydroelectric and natural gas plants with fast power ramping rates are used

• Power Ramping Rate - the speed at which load-following generation units must increase and decrease power output

• Intermediate Load Plants – load following plants used to meet most of the day-to-day variable demand

• Peaking Units - load following plants which meet the peak demand and often run less than a few hundred hours per year.

Net Load Met By Load-Following Generation for Medium Wind Penetration

Dispatch with higher VG penetration (wind providing 16% of load)* *The Role of Energy Storage with Renewable Electricity Generation, NREL, January 2010

A Mix of Renewables Can Offset Each Other

• Wind generation tends to peak at night and in the cooler months

• Solar generation peaks during the day during the warmer months

• Solar generation peaks coincides air conditioning driven load in the summer

Shawn Fitzpatrick, P.E.Energy EngineerAdvanced Energy

919-857-9000sfitzpatrick@advancedenergy.org