Stuart Wenham 8 October, 2012€¦ · 8th October, 2012. UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from...
Transcript of Stuart Wenham 8 October, 2012€¦ · 8th October, 2012. UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from...
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
SOLA3020 PV Manufacturing
Topic: Trends in Photovoltaics
Stuart Wenham
8th October, 2012
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System9. Trends in Education & Training
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
2007 MW 2008 MW 2009 MW 2010 MW 2011 MW
389 582 1100 1573 2096
363 504 704 1400 1721
336 494 595 1300 1711
207 473 586 1100 1695
200 300 525 1000 1623
China’s Dominance in Manufacturing
• China threatens PV manufacturing??• Trade tariffs• China helped drive down module
prices 80% in recent years• Also 80% of jobs downstream
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Fastest Growing Industry World-wide
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Huge 80% PV Module Price Reduction
• PV module costs no longer limiting market growth in many countries
• Red-tape, approvals, electricity supply agreements + other BOS costs are now major issues
• Examples of roof-top systems (module costs US$0.80 /Wp) :
• US system costs US$4.40 /Wp• Germany costs < US$2.50 /Wp• Many countries still without grid-
interconnection policies
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Implications of Price Reduction
• Grid now parity in >100 countries• Reduced importance on subsidies & FITs• Erratic policies contribute significantly to
industry instability
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
22 former UNSW students as CTO’s or VP’s of Technology World-wide
• Includes 8 of China’s 10 largest cell manufacturers in present or former positions
• Guarantees Australia’s continued technical leadership* denotes current position
• Rules & Regulations around distributed generation will become significant
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Experts expect prices to keep falling
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Predicted Cost Reductions
Polysilicon feedstock
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Application Trends
• Rooftop Systems
• Utility Scale Systems• Stand-alone Systems
- developing countries
Elecnor Solar Power Plant
35 MW – Trujillo, Spain
Alamosa Solar Power Plant - Colarado
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Future Energy Sources+ Current Consumption
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trends in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Screen Printed Solar Cell
Trends in Screen-Printing Technology
• Efficiency more important when S>D• Huge impact by Dupont - new pastes• Lightly doped emitters• Narrower metal lines• Selective emitters• Rear surface passivation
- AlOx/SiNx- SiO2/SiNx- SiOxNy
• Rear metalisation- SP Al- LFC- Laser doping
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in High Efficiency Technologies
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UNSW
UNSW – 25% PERL cell ISFH – 22.4% RISE cell
Stanford – 24% Rear Point Contact Sanyo – 23% HIT cell
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
• Buried Contact Solar Cells (Australian)
• HIT cell (Japan)
• Rear Point Contact Cell (USA)
• Pluto (Australia)
• Semiconductor Finger Cells (Australia)
• Yingli n-type Panda technology (Netherlands)• Laser Doping (Australia)• Innovalight (USA)
Commercialisation of High Efficiency, Low Cost Technology
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
1. Focus of many companies2. Kuttler plating baths now available!3. Printed seed layer plated with Cu4. Good results also with all plated contacts:
- Suntech- IMEC- HHI- Shinsung- UNSW- RENA
Trend towards Cu replacing Ag
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Wafer Trends
• Wafer costs now $0.25 - $0.28 /W • Less important to use thinner wafers• N-type predicted to dominate for high
efficiency devices– Good EU PVSEC paper by Stefan Glunz– IBC structure favoured– This structure needs highest quality Si
• P-type may do better than expected- B-O problem seems solvable- 700mV now achievable- More suitable for multi wafers
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Challenge for Thin-Films
• Silicon efficiencies increasing while costs are falling rapidly
• Falling market share
• Recent durability concerns in hot environments
• No thin-films have as yet demonstrated long-term stability or durability
• Dependence on rare elements
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Trends in Encapsulation8. Balance of System9. Trends in Education & Training
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Cell Encapsulation
1. Encapsulation costs now dominating. Per watt costs are typically:- $0.26 Wafer- $0.14 cell conversion- $0.34 encapsulation
2. Manufacturers very conservative (25yr warranty)
3. Importance of bankability –compromised by technology changes
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Cell Encapsulation
1. Pb free solders need higher temperature- Thinner interconnects due to thermal stress- Problem for thinner wafers- Glued interconnects
2. EVA no good for selective emitters3. Glued interconnects4. Rear contacts preferred.5. PCB approach to interconnection
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Encapsulation8. Balance of System9. Trends in Education & Training
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
BOS Costs need to be reduced
1. Module costs only 20-30% of roof-top system costs in USA
2. BOS costs about 50% in Germany
3. Other countries need to learn from Germany - Reduced red-tape- Efficient installations- Advanced electronics
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Photovoltaics
1. Trends in PV Manufacturing2. Price and Market Trends3. Applications4. Trend in Technology5. Trend to replace Ag with Cu6. Wafer Trends7. Trends in Encapsulation8. Balance of System9. Trends in Education & Training
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Trends in Education & Training
• Increasing company interest in training and technology transfers• Many more training & education programs being established• UNSW Education – World’s only PV Degree,
>500 enrolled• >40 former UNSW students in senior positions of PV companies
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Leadership Positions Held by Former UNSW Students
• 6 x CEO’s
• 6 x VP of Technology
• 16 x CTO’s
• 2 x COO’s
• 2 x Managing Director
• 6 x Research Director
• 5 x Company Directors
• 2 x Directors of Centre of Excellence
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Wenham Stuart * Suntech-PowerNarayanan Mohan Trina SolarSong, Dengyuan * Yingli SolarDai Ximing JA SolarYun Fei * LDK SolarYao, GuoXiao JinkoSolarGuo, Allen * Jinko Solar Narayanan Mohan * Solarfun (Hanwha)Wang Aihua * China Sunergy
22 former UNSW students as CTO’s or VP’s of Technology World-wide
• Includes 8 of China’s 10 largest cell manufacturers in present or former positions
• Guarantees Australia’s continued technical leadership* denotes current position
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Thank You
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
• Reduced energy in production• Increased cell efficiencies
US DOE Secretary Stephen Chu concluded: “China’s leadership not due to low cost labour but superior technology”
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Automated vs Labour4.1
2.66
2.28
1.49
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2008 2009 2010 2011
Cell ManufacturingHeadcount per MW
Cell ManufacturingHeadcount per MW
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Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight UNSW
Challenge to Upgrade Technology
• Compatibility with multi wafers essential for success• J0 reduction from 1600 to 400fA/cm2 gives +40mV in Voc