Protecting Public Safety and Reducing Incarceration:

Successes and Challenges Emily Levett, The Pew Charitable Trusts

Barbara Pierce, The Crime and Justice Institute

January 25, 2018

Mississippi Leading up to Reform

3

Prison Population Grew 600% In Last 3 Decades

Source: Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

2,816

21,969

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Mississippi Prison Population, 1977-2013

4

Despite Prison Growth, Recidivism Remained Stubbornly High

31%

69%

Percentage of Nonviolent Offenders Who Return to Prison Within 3 Years

Returns Within 3 Years Does Not Return Within 3 Years

Wendy Naro Ware and Roger Ocker, Ten-Year Adult Secure Population Projection, 2004-14, Mississippi Department of Corrections (July 2013)

5

Cost of Doing Nothing: $266 Million

20,586

22,497

24,448

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Historical Projected

Mississippi Historical and Projected Prison Population Growth, 2003-2024

6

Justice Reinvestment

7

Task Force Findings and HB 585

Corrections and Criminal Justice Task Force (2013):

•Nonviolent offenders and those revoked for probation or parole violations accounted for a large share of the prison population

• Room to align supervision practices with the research on what works to reduce recidivism

House Bill 585 (2014):

•Goals: Protect public safety; focus prison on serious offenders; and strengthen supervision

8

VT

HI

NH

MA

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

DC

ME WA

MT ND

SD

MN OR

ID

WY

CO UT

NV

CA

AZ NM

NE

KS

OK

TX

AK

LA

AR

MO

IA

WI

MI

IL IN OH

PA

NY

WV VA

KY

TN

MS AL GA

SC

NC

FL

Post 2014 (including

“round 2” states)

Pre 2014

Southern States Took on Justice Reinvestment after Mississippi

9

After Years of Growth, National Prison Population Beginning Sustained Decline

Source: Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

307,276

1,615,487 1,505,397

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

1,500,000

1,800,000

United States Prison Population, 1978-2016

Mississippi Since Reform

11

Overview

Part I: Performance Post-Reform

Part II: Current Challenges

Part III: Summary

12

Goal: Protect Public Safety

Part I: Performance Post-Reform •Goal: Protect public safety

•Goal: Focus prison on serious offenders

•Goal: Strengthen supervision

Part II: Current Challenges

Part III: Summary

13

Crime Rate Continued to Decline Post-Reform

4,004

3,200

3,049

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Mississippi Index Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (2000-2016)

HB 585

14

Since Reform, Property Crime Rate Down 5%

3,644

2,921 2,768

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000Mississippi Property Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (2000-2016)

HB 585

15

Violent Crime Rate Flat Since Reform

361

279

280

0

100

200

300

400

Mississippi Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents

HB 585

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (2000-2016)

16

Takeaways: Protect Public Safety

• Since reform:

•Overall crime rate has continued to decline • Property crimes decreased by 5 percent from 2014 to 2016

• Violent crime remained stable, and at an historic low

17

Goal: Focus Prison on Serious Offenders

Part I: Performance Post-Reform •Goal: Protect public safety

•Goal: Focus prison on serious offenders

•Goal: Strengthen supervision

Part II: Current Challenges

Part III: Summary

18

Policies: Focus Prison on Serious Offenders

•Expands eligibility for prison alternatives

•Reduces maximum sentences for certain non-violent drug and property offenses

•Extends parole eligibility to all non-violent offenders

• Implements “true minimums” to ensure that non-violent and violent offenders serve at least 25% and 50% of their sentences, respectively

19

Prison Population Declined 10% After Reform

22,626

20,721 18,570

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Prison Population, by Quarter

HB 585

20

Imprisonment Rate Declined 10% After Reform

692

624

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013 2016

Mississippi Imprisonment Rate per 100,000 Residents

Source :Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

21

Since Reform, Fewer People Entering Prison for Targeted Non-Violent Crimes

Pre-enactment Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Average Quarterly Admissions of Targeted Offenses, by Year

353 353

326 309

22

Despite Overall Decrease, Growth in Admissions for Drug Possession Offenses

28

6

8

133

147

31

8

9

107

155

40

10

11

94

153

42

16

18

110

167

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Grand Larceny

Uttering Forgery

Shoplifting

Possession

Sale/Dist/PWID

Average Quarterly Admissions by Offense, by Year

Pre-enactment Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

23

Since Reform, Fewer Non-Violent Offenders Behind Bars

Violent includes violent and sex crimes Non-violent includes property and drug

193

-2171

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

Violent* Non-violent

Change in the Prison Population, July 2014 to June 2017

24

Share of Prison Prioritized for Violent Offenders Increased by 13%

56% 63%

44% 37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre-reform (N=20721) Post-reform (N= 18976)

Prison Composition by Quarter

Non-violent

Violent

Violent includes violent and sex crimes Non-violent includes property and drug

25

Since Reform, Length of Stay Up Slightly

78 80 84

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mo

nth

s

Average Time Served, Prison Releases, by Quarter

HB 585

26

Longer Lengths of Stay for Violent, Sex Offenders

114

66

120

101

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Violent Sex

Mo

nth

s

Average Time Served for Prison Releases by Offense Type, by Quarter

Pre-reform Post-reform

27

Post-Reform Parole Grant Rate Above 50%

67%

75% 72%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Parole Grant Rate, by Quarter

HB 585

28

Takeaways: Focus Prison on Serious Offenders

• Since reform:

•Prison population, imprisonment rate down 10%

• Fewer people entering prison for targeted non-violent crimes

• Share of prison prioritized for violent offenders increased by 13%

• Length of stay up slightly, driven by longer prison stays for violent, sex offenders

•Parole grant rate remains high

29

Goal: Strengthen Supervision

Part I: Performance Post-Reform •Goal: Protect public safety

•Goal: Focus prison on serious offenders

•Goal: Strengthen supervision

Part II: Current Challenges

Part III: Summary

30

Policies: Strengthen Supervision

•Empowers supervision officers to respond to certain violations with immediate sanctions (i.e. to respond to a failed drug test, a supervision officer may implement a curfew or additional drug testing)

•Requires risk and needs assessment for all parole-eligible inmates and use of the results to determine the appropriate program and service plans

31

After Initial Increase, Supervision Population Down Since Reform

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Supervision Population by Type, by Year

Probation/Post-Release Parole

HB 585

32

Decline Driven by Non-Parole Population; Down 21% Since Reform

30,042 31,325

35,092

28,328

24,691

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Probation and Post-Release Population, by Year

HB 585

33

Number of People Successfully Discharging from Probation is Up

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Number Successfully Completing Probation, by Quarter

HB 585

34

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Supervision Revocations (Parole/Post-release/Probation) for New Crimes by Quarter

Since Reform, Fewer People on Supervision Committing New Crimes

HB 585

35

Takeaways: Strengthen Supervision

• Since reform:

• Supervision population down, driven by 21% decrease in non-parole population

•Number of probationers discharging successfully has increased by 10%

• Fewer people on supervision committing new crimes

Current Challenges

37

Overview: Imprisonment Rate

Part I: Performance Post-Reform

Part II: Current Challenges •Despite declines, Mississippi is the third-highest

imprisoner in the nation

•Technical revocations approaching pre-HB 585 levels

Part III: Summary

38

Despite Declines, Mississippi Remains Among Top Imprisoners Nationally

1. Louisiana

2. Oklahoma

3. Mississippi

4. Arizona

5. Arkansas

6. Alabama

7. Texas

8. Missouri

9. Kentucky

10. Georgia

Source: Department of Justice Statistics, Bureau of Justice Statistics

39

Overview: Technical Revocations

Part I: Performance Post-Reform

Part II: Current Challenges •Despite reform, Mississippi is the third-highest

incarcerator in the nation

•Technical revocations approaching pre-HB 585 levels

Part III: Summary

40

Policy: Technical Revocations

• Limits maximum periods of incarceration for people on supervision who break the rules of supervision (also known as technical violations)

•Under the policy, people who are sentenced for a first or second violation can be sentenced to up to 90 and 120 days, respectively

•Creates specialized Technical Violator Centers for offenders whose community supervision has been revoked for technical violators

41

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Supervision Revocations (Parole/Post-release/Probation) for New Crimes by Quarter

Since Reform, Fewer People on Supervision Committing New Crimes

HB 585

42

Despite Decline in Revocations for New Crimes, Significant Increase in Revocations Overall

1,227

653

1,029

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Revocation Admissions Per Quarter

HB 585

43

Despite Reform, Technicals Continue to Comprise Bulk of Non-Parole Revocations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1

Probation/Post-Release Supervision Revocations by Quarter

Technical Violations New Crimes

HB 585

44

For Parole, Overall Growth Driven by More Technical Revocations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1

Parole Revocations by Quarter

Technical Violations New Crimes

HB 585

45

After Initial Decline, Technical Revocations Have Increased

1,883

833

1,098

567

1,488

1,267

1,657 1,597

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Probation/Post-Release Supervision Parole

Revocations for a Technical Violation by Supervision Type, by Fiscal Year

Pre-HB585 Year One Year Two Year 3 (projected)

46

Overview

Part I: Performance Post-Reform

Part II: Current Challenges

Part III: Summary

47

Successes

Since reform, crime and imprisonment are down:

•Three years later, overall crime rates have decreased

•Prison population, imprisonment rate are down 10%

•Fewer people on supervision are committing new crimes

48

Challenges

But challenges remain:

•Despite reform, Mississippi is the 3rd highest imprisoner in the nation

•Revocations to prison are approaching pre- HB 585 levels, driven by technicals