Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in...
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Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2010-2050 Produced by: The Office of the State Demographer The Texas State Data Center in collaboration with The Hobby Center for Public Policy November 2014
Transcript of Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in...
Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2010-2050
Produced by:
The Office of the State Demographer
The Texas State Data Center
in collaboration with
The Hobby Center for Public Policy
November 2014
Introduction
The projections were completed using a cohort-component projection technique. As the name
implies, the basic characteristics of this technique are the use of separate cohorts--persons with
one or more common characteristic--and the separate projection of each of the major compo-
nents of population change--fertility, mortality and migration--for each of the cohorts. These
projections of components for each cohort are then combined in the familiar demographic
bookkeeping equation as follows:
The projections of the population of Texas and each county were prepared by Office of the
State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center in collaboration with Hobby Center for
Public Policy . Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. serves as the Texas State Demographer and as the Director
of the Texas State Data Center. Nazrul Hoque, Ph.D., of the Hobby Center for Public Policy at
the University of Houston, provided technical leadership for production of these population pro-
jections. Dr. Potter also serves as a faculty member in the Department of Demography and as
the Director of the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at the University of
Texas at San Antonio.
These projections, like all projections, involve the use of certain assumptions about future
events that may or may not occur. Users of these projections should be aware that although the
projections have been prepared with the use of detailed methodologies and with extensive
attempts have been made to account for existing demographic patterns, they may not accu-
rately project the future population of the State or of particular counties in the State. These pro-
jections should be used only with full awareness of the inherent limitations of population projec-
tions in general and with particular and detailed knowledge of the procedures and assumptions
delineated below which characterize the projections presented in this report.
The current projections are of the population of the State and of all counties in the State for
each year from 2010 through 2050. These are thus similar in form to those released by the pro-
gram in November 2012 but have been revised using the most recent birth and death data and
also the most recent information on special populations. They are by single years of age for ag-
es 0 through 85 years of age and older for males and females in each of four racial/ethnic
groups—Non-Hispanic Whites, Non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics (of all races), and persons from
Non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic groups. The total population is the sum of these four racial/
ethnic groups with their sum for 2010 being equal to the 2010 census count for the State of
Texas and for all counties in Texas.
This summary provides a relatively detailed description of the projection methodology and then
discusses the bases for, and the assumptions used in, creating the alternative projection
scenarios. It concludes with a description of the products available from the projection
process.
Methodology for Projections
Where: =the population projected at some future date years hence
= the population at the base year
= the number of births that occur during the interval
= the number of deaths that occur during the interval
= the amount of net migration that takes place during the interval
When several cohorts are used, may be seen as:
Where: is as in the equation above
= population of a given cohort at time and
Where: all terms are as noted above but are specific to given cohorts
In this, as in any other use of the cohort-component technique at least four major steps must be completed:
1. The selection of a baseline set of cohorts for the projection area or areas of interest for the
baseline time period (usually the last census and for other dates for which detailed base da-
ta are available);
2. The determination of appropriate baseline migration, mortality, and fertility measures for
each cohort for the baseline time period;
3. The determination of a method for projecting trends in fertility, mortality and migration rates
over the projection period;
4. The selection of a computational procedure for applying the rates to the baseline cohorts to
project the population for the projection period.
Each of these steps as performed for the Texas State Population Estimates and Projections Program's
projections are briefly discussed in the pages which follow.
The baseline cohorts used in the projections are single-year-of-age cohorts for males and fe-
males of Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic (of all races) and Non-Hispanic
Other racial/ethnic groups extracted from Summary File 1 of the 2010 Census of Population
and Housing (US Bureau of the Census 2011). Population data for 2010 were used as the
starting base because they provide the last complete count information available.
The development of 2010 Census-based baseline populations is essential if baseline rates of
fertility, mortality, and especially migration are to be computed and the projections are to pro-
vide meaningful comparisons with population values for past time periods and projections. As
described below, ensuring relative comparability of such baseline populations requires the
use of specific procedures.
The baseline populations for these projections consist of four groups. These are an Non-
Hispanic White (Anglo), Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic (of all races), and a Non-Hispanic Oth-
er population group. These consist of the census categories: Non-Hispanic White alone, Non-
Hispanic Black or African American alone, Hispanics of all races, and persons in all other non
-Hispanic racial groups referred to as the Other population group. This latter (Other popula-
tion) group also includes all persons listing two or more races. The initial releases of 2010
based projections for the State do not include a separate Non-Hispanic Asian population. The
Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are working to refine the
methodology to ensure production of defensible projections for this group. Once the methods
have been refined a supplemental set of these projections will be released that provide Non-
Hispanic Asian specific projections.
The use of these classifications allowed for the creation of 4 mutually exclusive groups (i.e.,
Non-Hispanic White or Anglo, Non-Hispanic Black or African American, Hispanic, and Non-
Hispanic Other) that are directly comparable to those used in 2000. The potential projection
of two other subgroups was examined but a decision was made not to include separate pro-
jections for these groups in this set of projections at this time. These were a Non-Hispanic
Asian alone and a multi-race group. They were not included because of the small number of
persons in these groups in many counties and, in the case of multiple race groups, a lack of
historical data for guiding future projections of fertility, mortality and migration rates for these
groups. The creation of projections for these groups will be considered in future projection
releases.
It is essential to note that the use of these population bases will result in some discontinui-
ties with previous projections made by the program. The previous post 2000 projections uti-
lized a somewhat different set of groupings in which multi-race groups were allocated to indi-
vidual single race groups. This was necessary because the 2000 Census was the first to al-
low respondents to indicate that they were members of more than one race. As a result
Selection of Baseline Cohorts
single race groups for 1990 and 2000 were not directly comparable and any computation of
fertility, mortality or migration rates that did not adjust for this change in data collection proce-
dures would have resulted in incorrect rates for the four major groups and to clearly fallacious
projections. The procedures used to make allocations of multi-race groups to the single race/
ethnicity categories are described in the procedures for the pre-2010 projections (see Texas
Population Estimates and Projections Program 2009). With the completion and release of
2010 data there were appropriate data for the two adjoining decennial periods of 2000 and
2010 and thus in the projections presented here direct census categories that did not require
allocations have been used. This provides directly comparable values for 2000 to 2010 and
directly comparable fertility, mortality, and migration rates for 2000 and 2010. The major
change resulting from this is that the Non-Hispanic Other category increases as a result of in-
cluding two or more races in the category for both 2000 and 2010.
It is also necessary to adjust the base population for "special populations". Special populations
are populations who reside in an area, usually in institutional settings, who do not generally
experience the same demographic processes over time as the indigenous population in the
area. Rather, they tend to come into and leave an area at fixed intervals. Examples of such
populations are college populations, prison populations, military base populations, and other
persons in institutional settings. Because their movement into and out of an area is a function
of events (e.g., enrollment, graduation, incarceration) which are not determined by local socio-
economic conditions, special populations must be removed from the base populations of pro-
jection areas before birth, death and migration rates are applied to the base population. If spe-
cial populations of substantial size are not removed, they will create distortions in age and oth-
er characteristics of the population that will remain in the population through the cohort aging
process and create inaccuracies in the projections. Special populations are, therefore, gener-
ally removed from the cohort base, the base cohorts projected forward and a separate projec-
tion of the special population for the projection date is added to the projected base cohorts to
obtain the projection of the total population.
In Texas, several continuing special population groups are especially large and must be re-
moved from base populations. These are college and university populations, state prison pop-
ulations, military populations, and populations in other State institutions. In the projections pre-
sented here, each of these groups was removed from the base population of the counties in
which they are located by subtracting these special populations from the 2010 population re-
ported in the Census for these counties. Since these special populations must be subtracted
from base populations that are age, sex and race/ethnicity specific, it was necessary to obtain
age, sex and racial/ethnic detail for the special populations. This was done for the college
populations by obtaining information on college enrollment for each public college and univer-
sity in the State for 2010 by age, sex and race/ethnicity from the Texas Higher Education Coor-
dinating Board. For prisons, information on the age, sex and race/ethnicity of prisoners in
each institution in 2010 was obtained from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. For both
college enrollments and prisons, the most recent projected values from the appropriate
agencies (Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board and the Texas Department of Criminal
Justice) for the periods after 2010 were incorporated in the projections. For other institutions,
information on age, sex and race/ethnicity were obtained from the group quarters data from the
2010 Census.
Given the distributions of the special populations by age, sex and race/ethnicity, it was then
possible to subtract the special populations from the baseline 2010 Census cohorts to obtain a
baseline set of cohorts free from the influence of special populations. These procedures for
baseline cohorts were completed for all counties in the State. However, following standard
practice, special populations were removed from the base population only when they made up
five percent or more of the population of the area. For counties with special populations of suf-
ficient size, the baseline cohorts without special populations are projected forward and projec-
tions of special populations for the projection years are added to the projections for the base-
line cohorts to obtain projections of the total population.
Determination of Baseline Fertility, Mortality and Migration Rates
Baseline rates for fertility and mortality were developed based on births for 2009-2011 and
deaths 2009-2011. The rates are as described below.
Fertility Rates
Age, sex and race/ethnicity specific fertility rates were computed using births by age, sex and
race/ethnicity and place of residence of the mother. The numerators for such rates are the av-
erage number of births for 2009, 2010 and 2011 for mothers in each age, sex and race/
ethnicity group and the denominators are the population counts by age, sex and race/ethnicity
in 2010. Birth data to compute the rates were obtained from the Texas Department of State
Health Services and data on females by age (10-49 years) and race/ethnicity were obtained
from the 2010 Census of Population. These data showed total fertility rates for Non-Hispanic
Whites, Non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics and the Non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic groups in
2010 that were 1.87, 1.92, 2.56 and 1.83 respectively. In addition, there were clear signs of
declines in fertility across groups with the exception of the Non-Hispanic Other group which
was already at very low levels of fertility. Thus, fertility rates were trended over the projection
period from 2010 to 2050 toward targeted rates deemed to be reasonable on the basis of
change in national patterns for such groups over time. These targeted rates for 2050 were
1.75, 1.75, 2.36, and 1.72 for Non-Hispanic Whites, Non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics and Non-
Hispanic Others respectively. Baseline Fertility Rates by age and race/ethnicity for the State of
Texas are provided in Appendix C.
Mortality Rates
To obtain baseline mortality measures, survival rates by single years of age, for both sexes
and for each of the racial/ethnic groups were needed. Survival rates for Non-Hispanic Whites,
Non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and the Non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic categories were
computed using death data from the Texas Department of State Health services for 2009,
2010 and 2011. Because there were no projections of detailed survival rates available for Tex-
as for future dates and no adequate means of discerning how such rates would change using
state data alone, projections made by the Census Bureau using national trends in mortality by
age, sex and race/ethnicity derived from analysis from the National Center for Health Statistics
were used as the basis for projecting state rates. This involved calculating the ratio of each
state-level age, sex, and race/ethnicity specific survival rate for Texas to those for the same
population subgroups in the Nation in 2010 and then assuming that state age, sex, and race/
ethnicity specific rates would remain at the ratios to national rates for 2010 but trend in the
same manner as national projections of survival over time. Although this involves assuming no
closure between Texas and national rates over time it provides projections of survival rates for
Texas that reflected expected patterns of change in mortality levels over time. These rates by
age, sex and race/ethnicity for the State of Texas as a whole are shown in Appendix B.
Migration Rates
Migration is the most difficult component process to project and for which to obtain baseline
rates. For the Texas projections, rates were derived using a standard residual migration for-
mula. Thus, births and deaths by age, sex and race/ethnicity cohort were added or subtracted
(as appropriate) to the 2000 population to produce an expected 2010 population for each co-
hort. This expected population was compared to the actual Census count to estimate net mi-
gration for 2000-2010 and subsequently for later post-2010 time periods. No attempt was
made to develop separate scenarios for specific age groups or to formulate scenarios using
different assumptions for each of the racial/ethnic groups.
Projection of Trends in Fertility, Mortality and Migration
Projections of Fertility
To project future rates of fertility, county and state-level projections were assumed to follow
historical patterns and trends. Projected trends in fertility were informed by 2000 to 2010
trends in fertility. Evaluation of these age and race/ethnicity-specific fertility rates in Texas
showed Non-Hispanic White fertility rates were below replacement levels of fertility (i.e., 1.919
instead of the 2.10 necessary for replacement). Rates of decline for this group for 2000 to
2010 showed a decline of 0.038 persons. This rate of decline was assumed to continue for the
decades from 2010 to 2010 and 2020 to 2030 and then rates for the remainder of the
projection period were trended to a target level of 1.750 by 2050. Rates for Non-Hispanic
Blacks showed a decrease of roughly 3.2 percent from 2000 to 2010 and had a total fertility
rate (2.013) just below replacement by 2010. Rates for this group for the projection period
were assumed to decline but at a rate approximately two-thirds of the rate for 2000 to 2010 for
the period from 2010 to 2050 resulting in a total fertility rate of 1.8 by 2050. Hispanic rates
showed a decline from a total fertility rate of 2.85 to 2.674 from 2000 to 2010 but it was not
clear whether such a decline was endemic or a function of reduced immigration and the im-
pacts of a major recession. Nevertheless continued decline at reduced levels were projected
to occur at a rate of .05 per decade resulting in a 2050 rate of 2.5. This rate suggested a long-
term decline from more than 3.0 in previous decades. The Non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic
group had a total fertility rate of 1.83 which is the lowest recorded for a major racial/ethnic
group in Texas in recent decades and because of the changing composition of this group was
assumed to remain constant rather than decline further as was assumed for the other racial/
ethnic groups. Given current economic and other factors there is greater instability in fertility
than occurs under normal conditions. As a result, the assumptions regarding fertility will re-
quire careful monitoring over time and change in the long-term assumptions may be altered as
appropriate in subsequent revisions of these projections.
For the projections reported here, single-years of age, sex and race/ethnicity specific fertility
rates and total fertility rates for 2010 were computed for counties using the data and proce-
dures described above. The counties' trends in fertility for the projection period from 2010 to
2050 were then projected by assuming that the county's future fertility would follow the State
trend.
Specifically, this involved computing a ratio between the age and race/ethnicity specific birth
rate for each age and racial/ethnic group for each county and the comparable State age and
race/ethnicity specific birth rate for 2007-2010. This ratio for each age and race/ethnicity
specific birth rate for each county was then multiplied by the projected State rate for each of
the projection years with the State rates used in the multiplication being those with the trends
noted above.
Projections of Mortality
The projections of mortality for the projection period were made with county and state rates
being assumed to follow national trends for the projection period and 2009-2010 county and
state age, sex and race/ethnicity survival rates being ratioed to national age, sex, and race/
ethnicity specific survival rates. The national rates were obtained from the Population
Projections Branch of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and reflect recent longterm projections of
mortality (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2008).
Survival rates were ratioed to the projected survival rates for the Nation. The national projec-
tions used show a life expectancy for Anglo males of 73 in 2000, and 81 by 2050. For Anglo
females the values were 80 and 86. The values for Black males were 66 and 71 and for
females were 74 and 79. The life expectancies for Hispanics were 75 and 81 for Hispanic
males and 83 and 87 for Hispanic females. For Others the values were 78 years for males for
2000 and 85 for 2050, and 85 and 91 for females. Life table survival rates for the State and
counties for 2010 were ratioed to national rates for 2010 and these rates applied to projected
national rates for each year from 2010 through 2050.
Projections of Migration
The migration component is the most difficult to project. For the Texas State Population Pro-
jection Program's projections, the age, sex and race/ethnicity specific net migration rates
(calculated in the manner described above) were used to arrive at three alternative scenarios
(described in the following pages) by systematically altering the assumptions related to the en-
tire set of age, sex, and race/ethnicity specific net migration rates. No attempt was made to
develop separate scenarios for specific age groups or to formulate scenarios using different
assumptions for each of the racial/ethnic groups.
Special Considerations in the Projection of Component Rates
The computation and projection of fertility and migration rates at the county level is sometimes
problematic for counties with small population bases. Given the use of 4 racial/ethnic groups,
2 sexes and 85 age groups, a total of 680 cells of data were employed for each county. In
counties with small populations in which either the baseline population used as the denomina-
tor to compute rates and/or the number of events used in the numerator (i.e., births or net mi-
grants) was too small to produce reliable and reasonable rates, it was necessary to develop a
means of obtaining reasonable rates.
In order to obtain reasonable rates for counties for which problems were identified, rates for
larger groupings of areas with characteristics similar to the counties for which alternative rates
were necessary were used to develop homogenous groupings of areas. Council of Govern-
ment Regions and county types within regions were used. All counties within Council of
Government (COG) regions were thus divided into four groups--metropolitan central city coun-
ties, metropolitan suburban counties, nonmetropolitan counties that are adjacent to metropoli-
tan counties, and nonmetropolitan counties that are not adjacent to metropolitan counties. The
rates for these groupings were used because analyses across time have indicated that the
rates for these 4 types show substantial homogeneity across areas within each grouping but
substantial differences among the groupings. Rates were completed for each of these four
county types within each region and for the four types for the State as a whole (by using the
aggregate populations of counties within each type within each region and/or the total State
population by type).
For counties with problematic rates, rates for the county type of which the county was a mem-
ber for the COG region where the county was located were substituted only for the problematic
rates for those age, sex, and race/ethnicity groups for which the rates computed with the coun-
ty's own population data were deemed to be problematic. For a few regions for a few racial/
ethnic groups, even the COG rates were problematic. In such cases, the State rate for the
county type was substituted for the county rate. Finally, in a very few cases even the state-
level status was not acceptable and the overall state rate for the racial/ethnic group was used.
It is important to stress that this procedure does not result in the rates for all age and sex
groups for a given racial/ethnic group being replaced by regional or State averages. Rather,
replacements are made for only those rates for age, sex, and racial/ethnic cohorts within coun-
ties which had problematic values. Thus, county-level differentials in demographic patterns are
maintained in the population projections.
Counties were deemed to have unreasonable age-specific fertility rates if they exceeded the
mean rates for an age race/ethnicity group for the county type of which they were a part by
more than two standard deviations or were greater than 25 percent for any single year for any
age, sex and race/ethnicity group. State-level age specific fertility rates for the county types
were used for substitutions for fertility because of instability even in COG level rates. In addi-
tion, data on the fertility levels of women in the Other group indicated that only a few counties
had age-specific rates that were sufficiently stable to be used in the projections. For all other
counties, the age and race/ethnicity specific rates used for the Other racial/ethnic group were
the State-level age, sex and race/ethnicity specific rates for the Other race/ethnicity group.
Migration rates are more variable across areas such that the use of means was not possible
and would have improperly altered rates for rapidly and slow growing areas. Limits were used
instead of statistical means. These limits were based on the upper and lower limits seen as
feasible for migration. Unreasonable migration rates were designated as those in which per-
person-per-year rates were 0.10 or greater (a rate that allows up to 10% migration per single-
year age group per year). Since migration rates can have either positive or negative values,
this allowed migration rates to vary between ‑0.10 and 0.10 per-person-per-year for each age,
sex and race/ethnicity cohort. The counties identified as having problematic fertility and/or mi-
gration rates were largely nonmetropolitan, most with relatively small populations.
Although the procedure described above was generally adequate for rate adjustments, for
some counties the migration rates were problematic in yet another manner. The use of histori-
cal rates often resulted in substantially higher rates of net migration for one sex than the other.
Such an imbalance cannot be expected to continue over the entire projection period. The ratio
of male rates relative to female rates for each age was examined by computing means for
each ratio and analyzing standard deviations for such means. From this analysis, it was decid-
ed that a ratio greater than 2 should result in a replacement of the migration rate. Given this,
rates were adjusted to be no larger than twice the ratio of male to female rates or visa versa at
the COG and State levels within county types for the same age, sex, and race/ethnicity group
(i.e., metropolitan central city, metropolitan suburban, nonmetropolitan adjacent, and nonmet-
ropolitan nonadjacent). If the ratio of male to female migration rates for a county of a given
type for any age exceeded this limit for the COG type, its rate for that age, sex, and race/
ethnicity was replaced with that for the county type for the COG. If the COG's rate for the
In this section, both the assumptions underlying the projection scenarios and the final compu-
tational procedures are described. For both, the emphasis is placed on the logic underlying
the scenarios and procedures rather than on the detailed computational processes. Those in-
terested in greater detail may consult several readily available references on the subject
(Murdock et al., l987; Pittenger, 1976; Murdock and Ellis, 1991; Smith, Tayman and Swanson,
2001) or may contact the personnel involved in the Projection Program in the State Demogra-
pher’s Office in the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at the University of
Texas at San Antonio.
The Projection Scenarios
Three projection scenarios which produce three alternative sets of population values for the
State and each county are presented in these projections. These scenarios assume the same
set of mortality and fertility assumptions in each scenario but differ in their assumptions relative
to net migration. The net migration assumptions made for two scenarios are derived from
2000-2010 patterns which have been altered relative to expected future population trends.
This is done by systematically and uniformly altering the adjusted (as noted above) 2000-2010
net migration rates by age, sex and race/ethnicity. The scenarios so produced are referred to
as the zero migration (0.0) scenario, the one-half 2000-2010 (0.5) scenario, and the 2000-2010
(1.0) scenario.
The Zero Migration (0.0) Scenario
The zero scenario assumes that inmigration and outmigration are equal (i.e., net migration is
zero) resulting in growth only through natural increase (the excess or deficit of births relative to
deaths). This scenario is commonly used as a base in population projections and is useful in
indicating what an area's indigenous growth (growth due only to natural increase) will be over
time. In general, this scenario produces the lowest population projection for counties with his-
torical patterns of population growth through net inmigration and the highest population projec-
tion for counties with historical patterns of population decline through net outmigration.
The Computation and Selection of Future Projection Scenarios
county type was still problematic, the rate for that county type for the State as a whole was
substituted for the county rate. Again, as for fertility and mortality rates, for a very few rates for
a few areas even state-level county-type specific rates were unacceptable and state-level rates
by age, sex, and race/ethnicity were used. The use of this procedure resulted in substantially
more balanced sex ratios in the final projections.
The One-Half 2000-2010 Migration (0.5) Scenario
This scenario has been prepared as an approximate average of the zero (0.0) and 2000-2010
(1.0) scenarios. It assumes rates of net migration one-half of those of the post-2000 decade.
The reason for including this scenario is that many counties in the State are unlikely to contin-
ue to experience the overall levels of relative extensive growth of the 2000 to 2010 decade.
This scenario projects rates of population growth that are slower than 2000-2010 changes, but
with steady growth.
The 2000-2010 Migration (1.0) Scenario
The 2000-2010 scenario assumes that the trends in the age, sex and race/ethnicity net migra-
tion rates of the post-2000 decade will characterize those occurring in the future of Texas. The
2000 to 2010 period was characterized by rapid growth in many areas of the state. It is seen
here as the high growth alternative because it’s overall total decade pattern is one of substan-
tial growth (i.e., 20.6% for the 2000-2010 decade for the State). Because growth was so exten-
sive during the 2000-2010 decade it is likely to be unsustainable over time and thus this sce-
nario is presented here as a high growth alternative. For counties that experienced net out-
migration during the 2000 to 2010 period, this scenario produces continued decline.
Computation of Future Populations
Given the projected rates and scenarios noted above, the computation of the projected popula-
tion was completed using standard cohort-component techniques as described above with all
computations being completed on an individual year and age basis for each sex and racial/
ethnic group. Base population values for 2010 were used as the starting values and popula-
tions were projected for each year from 2011-2050. Because of the need to ensure that the
sum of county projections produces reasonable future populations for the State as a whole, the
State's future population by age, sex and race/ethnicity was first independently projected under
each of the scenarios described above. County base cohorts were projected to the projection
date and projected special populations added to the projected base populations for the appro-
priate counties. Projected populations of colleges and universities for future years were taken
from projections by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (2013), values for existing
prison populations and correspondence concerning plans for future prison facilities were ac-
quired as of August 2014 from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. All other institutions
were maintained at 2010 levels as indicated in the 2000 Census. The State-level projections
were then used as control totals for the sum of county projections for each age, sex and racial/
ethnic group. The projections so produced and controlled for each scenario are those provid-
ed here as projections of the population of the State and of each county in the State.
Recommended Scenario
Many users want to know which projection scenario to use for various forms of analysis and
thus we generally recommend a specific scenario for use in most counties. At the same time,
it is important to note that other scenarios may be more appropriate for a given county for a
given period of time.
Recent estimates of Texas population for July 1, 2012 show Texas to be continuing to grow at
rates very similar to those from 2000 to 2010 but also showing a continuation of regional pat-
terns of variation in rates of growth in Texas. Despite this we believe that the 0.5 scenario con-
tinues to be the most appropriate scenario for most counties for use in long-term planning. For
planning for the next 5-10 years the 1.0 scenario may be more appropriate. The rationales for
these recommendations are presented below.
The 2000 to 2010 period was one of expansive growth in the Texas economy and population.
A general slowdown in the U.S. and Texas economies occurred in the later part of the 2000 to
2010 decade but the most recent data suggest that Texas economy and population are again
showing substantial growth. Despite this it is important to remember that although the scenari-
os use trends in births and deaths, they assume constant levels of migration. Such an assump-
tion is used because of the lack of historical data of sufficient specificity to trend these rates
over time. Our analyses of such rates suggest that it is unlikely that such trends (especially in
some key groups) will continue at the level of the 2000-2010 period for the next 40 years and
thus using the 0.5 scenario assumes continued growth but at reduced levels. In addition, the
overall direction of trends and differences among racial/ethnic groups seem likely to continue
suggesting the need for the use of a scenario that is based on 2000-2010 trends in migration
but shows slower growth. This is the 0.5 scenario.
For those doing short term planning of 5-10 years the use of 1.0 scenario projections may be
appropriate with the provision that the user constantly monitor trends for indications of sudden
declines in growth rates.
Changes and Corrections to Previous Projections
The population projections presented here, include certain changes and corrections to the data
and calculations used in the process. While the projections presented in the 0.0. 0.5 and 1.0
Scenarios typically do not change substantially due to biennial updates, the 2014 revisions in-
clude population projections that are quite different from those that were released in 2012 for
some counties and subcategories.
As discussed in an earlier section, for this current set of projections baseline rates for fertility
and mortality were developed based on births for 2009-2011 and deaths 2009-2011. In the
set of projections, produced in 2012, baseline rates for fertility and mortality were developed
based on births for 2007-2010 and deaths for 2009-2010.
We normally use three year average of births and deaths to calculate fertility and survival
rates. Since the 2011 vital statistics data were not available to use in projections produced in
2012, earlier years of data were utilized. Also, birth data for 2007-2010 were used for the 2012
projections because, at that time, we were not sure whether the decline in births was tempo-
rary (due to the effect of the recent recession) or an actual trend in declining birth rates. The
2011 and 2012 data suggest there is a genuine trend of decreasing birth rates, particularly for
Hispanic population. Death data are not impacted in a similar manner by economic conditions;
rates were more stable from year to year for this indicator in 2012 and remain stable for the
2014 projections.
In the course of updating the rates discussed above, an inconsistency was discovered in the
distribution of cohorts into race/ethnicity groups due to changes in reported records for births
and deaths. Persons who indicated their race/ethnicity as non-Hispanic and “Some Other
Race” should have been allocated to the “Other” category for projection purposes, but in the
2012 projection model some of them were incorrectly proportioned to the Anglo and Black
groups. This problem was corrected for these 2014 population projections.
While adjustments to birth and death rates affected the population change somewhat over the
course of the 2011-2050 population projections, migration rates were also influenced. Migra-
tion is calculated as a residual value after births are added to the 2000 population count and
deaths are subtracted (for each cohort), then the remaining population change between 2000
and 2010 is due to migration.
While the changes and corrections discussed above have resulted in notable revisions for
some areas, these updates are all expected to improve the accuracy of the population projec-
tions. As always, the population changes attributed to these projections involve assumptions
based on records of historical trends and may not accurately reflect the future population in
any given area or population sub-group. Since it is not possible to monitor events in all 254
Counties in Texas and methods must be applied equitably to all areas for consistency, the vari-
ous scenarios are provided to allow local and regional variability in expected population
change.
If you have any questions concerning these projections, please contact:
Dr. Lloyd Potter, State Demographer
Office of the State Demographer
Stephen F. Austin Building, Suite 220W
1700 North Congress
Austin, Texas 78701
(512) 463-7659
The Texas State Data Center
501 West Cesar E. Chavez Blvd.
San Antonio, TX 78207-4415
(210) 458-6543
P.O. Box 13455
Austin, TX 78701
http://osd.state.tx.us
Ph: 512-463-8390
Fx: 512-463-7632
Email: [email protected]
501 West Cesar E. Chavez Blvd.
San Antonio, TX 78207-4415
http://txsdc.utsa.edu
Ph: 210-458-6543
Fx: 210-458-6541
Email: [email protected]
This document describes the population projection methodology and provides several appen-
dices showing the base populations for the State for 2010, and the base rates for fertility, mor-
tality and migration for the State.
The data produced in the process of completing the projections and the data summarizing the
projections themselves are extensive. The amount of data available for the State and each of
254 counties for three scenarios of growth, for each year from 2010 through 2050 for each of
86 age groups for 2 sexes and 4 racial/ethnic groups is voluminous. Thus, data are provided
in several different forms to address the needs of different user groups. Because of the volume
of data, printed data are provided only on request.
The fully detailed projections of the population in each age, sex and racial/ethnic group for
each year from 2010 through 2050 are available in electronic forms for the State and all
counties in the State.
E-mail: [email protected]
URL: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
All data are available free on the web site provided above and may be requested in additional
formats on a cost-recovery basis.
Data Available from the Projections
Frejka, Tomas and W. Ward Kingkade
2001 Why is American Fertility So High? Paper presented at the Conference of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. “The Direction of Fertility in the United States”, October 2-3, 2001, Alexandria, VA.
Hollmann, Frederick W., Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan
2000 Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bu-reau of the Census.
Murdock, Steve H., and David R. Ellis
1991 Applied Demography: An Introduction to Basic Concepts, Methods and Data. Boul-der, Colorado: Westview Press.
Murdock, Steve H., Rita R. Hamm, Sean‑Shong Hwang, and Kenneth Backman
1987 Population Projections: A Review of Basic Principles, Practices and Methods. Col-lege Station: Texas Agricultural Experiment Station.
Pittenger, Donald
1976 Projecting State and Local Populations. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Com-pany.
Smith, Stanley, Jeff Tayman, and David A Swanson
2001 State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. New York, NY: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
Texas Department of Criminal Justice
2014 Personal Communication with Information Technology Division, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Huntsville, Texas.
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
2013 Participation Forecast, 2013-2020. Austin, Texas: Texas Higher Education Coordi-nating Board.
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2013 Estimates of the Total Populations of Counties and Places in Texas for July 1, 2012 and January 1, 2013. San Antonio: Texas State Data Center, The University of Tex-as at San Antonio.
References
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2001 Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040. Austin: Texas State Data Center, Texas A&M University System.
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2004 Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/ Ethnicity for 2000-2040. San Antonio: Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio.
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2006 Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040. San Antonio: Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio.
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2008 Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040. San Antonio: Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio.
Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program
2012 Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2010-2050. San Antonio: Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio.
United States Bureau of the Census
2011 2010 Census Summary File 1 [machine-readable data files]. Prepared by the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau.
2003 Decision on Intercensal Population Estimates. March 12, 2003. http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/dipe.html
United States Bureau of the Census, Population Divisions, Population Projections Branch
1996 Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin:
1995 to 2050. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
2000 Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bu-reau of the Census.
2008 United States Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: July 1, 2000-2050. August 14, 2008. http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2008projections.html
Appendix A: Baseline Population by Age, Sex and
Race/Ethnicity for 2010 for the
State of Texas
Appendix B: Baseline Survival Rates by Age, Sex and
Race/Ethnicity for 2009-2011 for the
State of Texas
Appendix C: Baseline Fertility Rates by Age and
Race/Ethnicity for 2009-2011 for the
State of Texas
Appendix D: Baseline Migration Rates (per person per
year) by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for
2000-2010 for the State of Texas
Appendices
Appendix A
Baseline Population by Age, Sex and
Race/Ethnicity for 2010 for the
State of Texas
A
ppen
dix
A: B
asel
ine
Popula
tion b
y A
ge,
Sex
and R
ace/
Eth
nic
ity f
or
2010 f
or
the
Sta
te o
f T
exas
T
ota
l A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Ag
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
F
emal
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
0
379
,84
6
193
,48
9
186
,35
7
118
,88
8
61,1
93
57,6
95
41,8
69
21,1
09
20,7
60
194
,21
5
98,4
89
95,7
26
24,8
74
12,6
98
12,1
76
1
381
,34
5
194
,44
2
186
,90
3
120
,21
1
61,4
73
58,7
38
42,6
64
21,6
14
21,0
50
193
,80
5
98,7
84
95,0
21
24,6
65
12,5
71
12,0
94
2
390
,11
9
199
,27
4
190
,84
5
122
,90
5
63,0
20
59,8
85
43,8
34
22,3
07
21,5
27
197
,74
6
100
,85
1
96,8
95
25,6
34
13,0
96
12,5
38
3
390
,26
2
199
,39
1
190
,87
1
124
,12
7
63,6
96
60,4
31
44,2
42
22,7
03
21,5
39
197
,11
4
100
,38
2
96,7
32
24,7
79
12,6
10
12,1
69
4
386
,90
1
197
,55
3
189
,34
8
124
,34
7
64,0
76
60,2
71
43,9
36
22,1
24
21,8
12
193
,79
1
98,7
51
95,0
40
24,8
27
12,6
02
12,2
25
5
387
,45
4
197
,73
7
189
,71
7
125
,55
1
64,3
11
61,2
40
43,6
89
22,0
90
21,5
99
193
,35
6
98,7
82
94,5
74
24,8
58
12,5
54
12,3
04
6
385
,85
8
196
,73
9
189
,11
9
127
,06
1
65,1
25
61,9
36
43,7
55
22,1
76
21,5
79
190
,34
8
96,9
80
93,3
68
24,6
94
12,4
58
12,2
36
7
383
,64
8
195
,27
5
188
,37
3
127
,82
2
65,5
04
62,3
18
43,6
55
22,1
85
21,4
70
188
,12
1
95,5
22
92,5
99
24,0
50
12,0
64
11,9
86
8
382
,49
4
195
,59
8
186
,89
6
128
,08
0
65,7
40
62,3
40
44,4
16
22,7
24
21,6
92
186
,92
2
95,4
13
91,5
09
23,0
76
11,7
21
11,3
55
9
388
,78
0
198
,46
5
190
,31
5
131
,49
2
67,5
76
63,9
16
45,1
16
23,1
32
21,9
84
188
,37
5
95,6
51
92,7
24
23,7
97
12,1
06
11,6
91
10
387
,30
7
198
,05
5
189
,25
2
132
,88
8
68,3
59
64,5
29
46,1
37
23,5
15
22,6
22
185
,58
7
94,6
78
90,9
09
22,6
95
11,5
03
11,1
92
11
377
,60
4
193
,11
8
184
,48
6
131
,98
8
67,7
61
64,2
27
44,9
89
23,0
56
21,9
33
178
,94
1
91,3
18
87,6
23
21,6
86
10,9
83
10,7
03
12
373
,65
1
191
,49
8
182
,15
3
131
,36
8
67,7
91
63,5
77
45,2
74
23,1
81
22,0
93
175
,31
4
89,5
57
85,7
57
21,6
95
10,9
69
10,7
26
13
372
,19
4
190
,08
8
182
,10
6
133
,10
5
68,2
80
64,8
25
45,3
14
23,0
36
22,2
78
172
,29
5
87,9
81
84,3
14
21,4
80
10,7
91
10,6
89
14
371
,12
7
190
,10
7
181
,02
0
133
,41
2
68,4
83
64,9
29
45,4
70
23,4
12
22,0
58
171
,24
5
87,5
51
83,6
94
21,0
00
10,6
61
10,3
39
15
371
,71
6
190
,56
0
181
,15
6
134
,18
7
68,9
26
65,2
61
47,1
70
24,0
86
23,0
84
169
,96
3
87,1
37
82,8
26
20,3
96
10,4
11
9,9
85
16
376
,12
8
193
,38
1
182
,74
7
136
,67
6
70,2
22
66,4
54
48,6
63
25,0
35
23,6
28
170
,19
9
87,6
12
82,5
87
20,5
90
10,5
12
10,0
78
17
379
,39
0
195
,47
9
183
,91
1
138
,55
3
71,4
89
67,0
64
50,3
50
25,8
89
24,4
61
170
,44
0
87,8
39
82,6
01
20,0
47
10,2
62
9,7
85
18
380
,01
8
196
,10
0
183
,91
8
140
,51
7
72,6
35
67,8
82
49,7
38
25,5
28
24,2
10
169
,84
8
87,7
42
82,1
06
19,9
15
10,1
95
9,7
20
19
375
,87
2
193
,16
6
182
,70
6
141
,28
3
72,5
95
68,6
88
49,5
10
24,9
18
24,5
92
165
,24
3
85,4
92
79,7
51
19,8
36
10,1
61
9,6
75
20
369
,04
0
189
,57
0
179
,47
0
140
,81
4
71,9
50
68,8
64
47,8
03
23,9
30
23,8
73
160
,47
5
83,4
97
76,9
78
19,9
48
10,1
93
9,7
55
21
359
,01
5
184
,65
2
174
,36
3
139
,21
5
70,7
93
68,4
22
45,3
82
22,7
29
22,6
53
154
,07
3
80,6
17
73,4
56
20,3
45
10,5
13
9,8
32
22
358
,63
9
184
,53
9
174
,10
0
140
,39
6
71,2
28
69,1
68
43,8
37
21,6
72
22,1
65
154
,04
5
81,2
83
72,7
62
20,3
61
10,3
56
10,0
05
23
362
,24
4
185
,55
2
176
,69
2
144
,11
1
72,7
40
71,3
71
43,3
43
21,3
86
21,9
57
154
,08
5
81,1
13
72,9
72
20,7
05
10,3
13
10,3
92
24
368
,14
1
188
,04
0
180
,10
1
148
,13
7
74,5
33
73,6
04
43,8
24
21,5
92
22,2
32
154
,59
9
81,0
68
73,5
31
21,5
81
10,8
47
10,7
34
25
370
,56
5
189
,11
6
181
,44
9
150
,64
2
76,1
68
74,4
74
43,3
51
21,4
06
21,9
45
154
,43
8
80,4
65
73,9
73
22,1
34
11,0
77
11,0
57
26
364
,17
9
184
,95
2
179
,22
7
146
,80
5
74,0
70
72,7
35
42,5
64
20,6
93
21,8
71
151
,92
3
78,9
88
72,9
35
22,8
87
11,2
01
11,6
86
27
374
,51
0
190
,10
6
184
,40
4
150
,70
3
76,1
14
74,5
89
43,7
54
21,2
59
22,4
95
156
,56
7
81,3
68
75,1
99
23,4
86
11,3
65
12,1
21
28
370
,70
4
187
,07
6
183
,62
8
149
,19
2
74,9
44
74,2
48
43,2
45
20,9
22
22,3
23
155
,08
1
80,2
70
74,8
11
23,1
86
10,9
40
12,2
46
29
373
,08
1
187
,71
6
185
,36
5
149
,78
1
75,7
06
74,0
75
44,4
71
21,2
96
23,1
75
155
,99
2
80,0
05
75,9
87
22,8
37
10,7
09
12,1
28
30
374
,10
1
188
,81
0
185
,29
1
148
,95
3
75,3
17
73,6
36
45,4
15
21,7
00
23,7
15
156
,46
4
80,7
93
75,6
71
23,2
69
11,0
00
12,2
69
31
348
,43
8
175
,09
8
173
,34
0
139
,25
7
70,4
62
68,7
95
42,3
70
20,2
52
22,1
18
144
,39
2
73,8
75
70,5
17
22,4
19
10,5
09
11,9
10
32
349
,11
9
174
,78
0
174
,33
9
138
,97
4
69,7
18
69,2
56
41,0
00
19,5
07
21,4
93
146
,90
4
75,0
53
71,8
51
22,2
41
10,5
02
11,7
39
33
344
,43
4
172
,34
6
172
,08
8
135
,61
8
68,3
09
67,3
09
40,4
36
19,2
97
21,1
39
146
,01
9
74,0
86
71,9
33
22,3
61
10,6
54
11,7
07
34
344
,34
2
171
,85
3
172
,48
9
134
,26
8
67,8
04
66,4
64
39,9
22
18,7
87
21,1
35
146
,70
4
74,0
80
72,6
24
23,4
48
11,1
82
12,2
66
A
pp
end
ix A
, co
nti
nu
ed
T
ota
l A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Ag
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
F
emal
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
35
350
,07
7
174
,81
1
175
,26
6
138
,34
0
69,6
55
68,6
85
40,2
16
19,2
18
20,9
98
147
,59
9
74,5
34
73,0
65
23,9
22
11,4
04
12,5
18
36
339
,51
7
168
,10
6
171
,41
1
134
,34
8
67,3
13
67,0
35
40,3
03
19,1
51
21,1
52
141
,23
0
70,4
30
70,8
00
23,6
36
11,2
12
12,4
24
37
347
,19
8
172
,52
5
174
,67
3
139
,68
9
70,5
09
69,1
80
41,8
55
19,7
88
22,0
67
141
,52
9
70,6
75
70,8
54
24,1
25
11,5
53
12,5
72
38
357
,70
3
177
,35
6
180
,34
7
151
,12
2
76,1
00
75,0
22
42,8
14
20,4
24
22,3
90
139
,89
2
69,4
86
70,4
06
23,8
75
11,3
46
12,5
29
39
369
,09
2
183
,34
1
185
,75
1
163
,37
0
82,2
21
81,1
49
44,7
28
21,2
88
23,4
40
136
,98
4
68,2
35
68,7
49
24,0
10
11,5
97
12,4
13
40
363
,80
6
181
,24
1
182
,56
5
161
,79
3
81,4
96
80,2
97
42,7
02
20,3
33
22,3
69
135
,97
9
68,2
43
67,7
36
23,3
32
11,1
69
12,1
63
41
339
,26
8
169
,59
6
169
,67
2
152
,30
2
76,6
23
75,6
79
39,6
55
19,1
35
20,5
20
125
,52
7
63,1
74
62,3
53
21,7
84
10,6
64
11,1
20
42
331
,74
9
165
,80
9
165
,94
0
147
,82
6
74,7
97
73,0
29
40,4
52
19,5
03
20,9
49
123
,21
8
61,6
92
61,5
26
20,2
53
9,8
17
10,4
36
43
327
,49
9
163
,86
3
163
,63
6
148
,98
7
75,1
55
73,8
32
40,3
56
19,4
01
20,9
55
119
,10
4
60,0
18
59,0
86
19,0
52
9,2
89
9,7
63
44
332
,47
3
166
,35
6
166
,11
7
152
,26
9
76,1
80
76,0
89
42,0
31
20,1
64
21,8
67
118
,88
9
60,4
92
58,3
97
19,2
84
9,5
20
9,7
64
45
351
,75
3
175
,19
4
176
,55
9
168
,09
0
84,0
45
84,0
45
44,3
12
21,0
88
23,2
24
119
,89
7
60,5
67
59,3
30
19,4
54
9,4
94
9,9
60
46
351
,53
0
175
,00
9
176
,52
1
175
,08
9
87,3
57
87,7
32
42,8
32
20,3
85
22,4
47
113
,98
6
57,6
07
56,3
79
19,6
23
9,6
60
9,9
63
47
354
,53
8
176
,16
2
178
,37
6
180
,22
9
89,7
50
90,4
79
42,8
73
20,4
80
22,3
93
111
,96
9
56,4
04
55,5
65
19,4
67
9,5
28
9,9
39
48
349
,68
4
173
,71
3
175
,97
1
182
,65
6
90,9
20
91,7
36
42,4
07
20,2
47
22,1
60
106
,98
9
54,0
02
52,9
87
17,6
32
8,5
44
9,0
88
49
352
,96
2
174
,78
5
178
,17
7
186
,83
5
93,0
28
93,8
07
42,9
84
20,5
28
22,4
56
105
,19
1
52,6
58
52,5
33
17,9
52
8,5
71
9,3
81
50
354
,58
7
176
,94
7
177
,64
0
190
,41
9
95,2
12
95,2
07
42,9
40
20,8
68
22,0
72
103
,61
3
52,4
08
51,2
05
17,6
15
8,4
59
9,1
56
51
336
,80
6
166
,76
4
170
,04
2
184
,39
1
91,9
87
92,4
04
41,1
40
19,6
59
21,4
81
94,7
16
47,3
30
47,3
86
16,5
59
7,7
88
8,7
71
52
337
,71
5
167
,00
8
170
,70
7
188
,00
3
93,7
04
94,2
99
40,2
08
19,1
89
21,0
19
92,8
88
46,1
37
46,7
51
16,6
16
7,9
78
8,6
38
53
327
,31
7
160
,81
1
166
,50
6
183
,37
5
90,9
43
92,4
32
39,1
55
18,6
30
20,5
25
88,4
89
43,6
24
44,8
65
16,2
98
7,6
14
8,6
84
54
318
,44
4
156
,40
3
162
,04
1
179
,39
2
88,6
84
90,7
08
37,9
14
18,1
62
19,7
52
85,2
50
41,9
69
43,2
81
15,8
88
7,5
88
8,3
00
55
312
,96
4
153
,28
2
159
,68
2
179
,83
2
89,0
59
90,7
73
36,4
73
17,2
87
19,1
86
81,3
45
39,7
17
41,6
28
15,3
14
7,2
19
8,0
95
56
294
,08
0
142
,78
6
151
,29
4
172
,07
3
84,3
51
87,7
22
32,8
86
15,3
43
17,5
43
74,9
54
36,3
99
38,5
55
14,1
67
6,6
93
7,4
74
57
285
,98
7
139
,18
3
146
,80
4
168
,75
7
83,1
50
85,6
07
31,6
87
14,8
51
16,8
36
71,3
52
34,6
08
36,7
44
14,1
91
6,5
74
7,6
17
58
270
,39
3
130
,84
6
139
,54
7
162
,03
5
79,5
32
82,5
03
29,8
54
13,6
81
16,1
73
65,6
68
31,7
37
33,9
31
12,8
36
5,8
96
6,9
40
59
259
,50
0
125
,17
8
134
,32
2
152
,87
0
74,8
26
78,0
44
29,0
51
13,3
59
15,6
92
64,7
21
31,1
39
33,5
82
12,8
58
5,8
54
7,0
04
60
255
,72
8
123
,22
6
132
,50
2
153
,74
5
75,3
32
78,4
13
27,2
77
12,4
94
14,7
83
61,9
61
29,5
53
32,4
08
12,7
45
5,8
47
6,8
98
61
244
,79
5
117
,86
4
126
,93
1
149
,88
8
73,1
91
76,6
97
25,6
06
11,7
36
13,8
70
57,5
71
27,4
75
30,0
96
11,7
30
5,4
62
6,2
68
62
247
,10
9
119
,25
5
127
,85
4
156
,63
6
76,7
28
79,9
08
24,0
06
11,1
42
12,8
64
55,3
91
26,2
45
29,1
46
11,0
76
5,1
40
5,9
36
63
240
,07
1
115
,71
8
124
,35
3
156
,44
3
76,7
41
79,7
02
21,4
30
9,8
01
11,6
29
51,9
29
24,4
54
27,4
75
10,2
69
4,7
22
5,5
47
64
187
,06
4
89,7
57
97,3
07
115
,14
9
56,4
44
58,7
05
17,7
96
8,0
05
9,7
91
45,5
40
21,2
39
24,3
01
8,5
79
4,0
69
4,5
10
65
189
,29
5
90,0
03
99,2
92
119
,73
3
57,9
01
61,8
32
17,5
62
7,7
37
9,8
25
43,5
11
20,3
90
23,1
21
8,4
89
3,9
75
4,5
14
66
183
,76
7
87,1
52
96,6
15
120
,42
1
58,2
74
62,1
47
16,1
20
7,0
60
9,0
60
39,6
40
18,2
46
21,3
94
7,5
86
3,5
72
4,0
14
67
175
,56
6
83,2
53
92,3
13
115
,97
2
56,0
72
59,9
00
15,6
00
6,9
93
8,6
07
36,6
69
16,6
64
20,0
05
7,3
25
3,5
24
3,8
01
68
157
,06
8
74,2
03
82,8
65
103
,42
9
49,9
39
53,4
90
13,9
53
6,0
96
7,8
57
33,0
88
15,0
03
18,0
85
6,5
98
3,1
65
3,4
33
Ap
pen
dix
A,
con
tin
ued
T
ota
l A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Ag
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
Tota
l M
ale
F
emal
e T
ota
l M
ale
Fem
ale
69
147
,40
4
68,6
58
78,7
46
96,6
08
45,9
87
50,6
21
13,2
89
5,6
69
7,6
20
31,4
90
14,1
56
17,3
34
6,0
17
2,8
46
3,1
71
70
137
,38
2
64,0
10
73,3
72
89,5
67
42,4
78
47,0
89
12,2
53
5,2
26
7,0
27
29,9
11
13,6
37
16,2
74
5,6
51
2,6
69
2,9
82
71
129
,61
8
60,0
91
69,5
27
85,9
98
40,6
92
45,3
06
11,0
58
4,8
60
6,1
98
27,4
54
12,1
46
15,3
08
5,1
08
2,3
93
2,7
15
72
124
,29
2
56,9
38
67,3
54
82,1
80
38,4
96
43,6
84
10,4
93
4,3
55
6,1
38
26,7
73
11,7
51
15,0
22
4,8
46
2,3
36
2,5
10
73
115
,47
3
52,5
28
62,9
45
76,1
58
35,5
40
40,6
18
9,9
88
4,0
85
5,9
03
24,9
36
10,8
85
14,0
51
4,3
91
2,0
18
2,3
73
74
112
,39
1
50,2
98
62,0
93
74,8
02
34,4
77
40,3
25
9,4
01
3,7
79
5,6
22
24,1
03
10,2
27
13,8
76
4,0
85
1,8
15
2,2
70
75
108
,85
2
48,6
08
60,2
44
72,9
07
33,2
47
39,6
60
9,3
26
3,7
92
5,5
34
23,0
76
9,9
24
13,1
52
3,5
43
1,6
45
1,8
98
76
98,1
15
43,3
58
54,7
57
66,0
67
29,8
43
36,2
24
8,3
90
3,3
55
5,0
35
20,4
31
8,7
11
11,7
20
3,2
27
1,4
49
1,7
78
77
94,0
54
40,8
22
53,2
32
64,2
77
28,6
84
35,5
93
8,0
55
3,0
75
4,9
80
18,6
63
7,7
35
10,9
28
3,0
59
1,3
28
1,7
31
78
89,6
93
38,8
75
50,8
18
61,7
65
27,4
16
34,3
49
6,9
78
2,6
77
4,3
01
18,3
00
7,6
56
10,6
44
2,6
50
1,1
26
1,5
24
79
86,5
31
36,8
67
49,6
64
60,0
50
26,2
23
33,8
27
6,6
26
2,4
94
4,1
32
17,2
13
7,0
53
10,1
60
2,6
42
1,0
97
1,5
45
80
82,6
29
34,2
96
48,3
33
57,1
12
24,3
10
32,8
02
6,4
48
2,3
27
4,1
21
16,6
71
6,6
69
10,0
02
2,3
98
990
1,4
08
81
74,1
81
30,4
09
43,7
72
52,1
63
21,8
84
30,2
79
5,6
90
1,9
96
3,6
94
14,4
33
5,7
21
8,7
12
1,8
95
808
1,0
87
82
68,4
53
27,3
18
41,1
35
48,1
57
19,6
20
28,5
37
5,0
65
1,7
33
3,3
32
13,4
52
5,2
39
8,2
13
1,7
79
726
1,0
53
83
63,6
60
24,9
68
38,6
92
45,2
36
17,9
72
27,2
64
4,6
41
1,5
78
3,0
63
12,1
36
4,7
75
7,3
61
1,6
47
643
1,0
04
84
58,2
83
22,0
38
36,2
45
41,7
91
16,0
73
25,7
18
4,3
12
1,3
82
2,9
30
10,7
85
4,0
61
6,7
24
1,3
95
522
873
85
305
,17
9
100
,97
1
204
,20
8
225
,67
2
74,3
74
151
,29
8
23,1
26
6,5
53
16,5
73
50,1
86
17,7
80
32,4
06
6,1
95
2,2
64
3,9
31
Tota
l
Pop
ula
tion
25,1
45
,561
12,4
72
,280
12,6
73
,281
11,3
97
,345
5,6
32
,64
6
5,7
64
,69
9
2,8
86
,82
5
1,3
92
,41
0
1,4
94
,41
5
9,4
60
,92
1
4,7
63
, 753
4,6
97
,16
8
1,4
00
,47
0
683
,47
1
716
,99
9
Appendix B
Baseline Survival Rates by Age, Sex and
Race/Ethnicity for 2009-2011 for the
State of Texas
Appen
dix
B: B
asel
ine
Surv
ival
Rat
es b
y A
ge,
Sex
, an
d R
ace/
Eth
nic
ity f
or
2009-2
011 f
or
the
Sta
te o
f T
exas
An
glo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Age
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
0
0
.99
56
00
0
0.9
961
80
0
0.9
902
20
0
0.9
925
90
0
0.9
958
80
0
0.9
965
80
0
0.9
975
47
3
0.9
973
89
1
1
0
.99
96
09
8
0.9
995
36
8
0.9
991
39
0
0.9
993
16
2
0.9
995
36
9
0.9
995
25
5
0.9
998
27
0
0.9
999
48
4
2
0
.99
97
05
6
0.9
997
08
3
0.9
996
62
2
0.9
996
37
5
0.9
996
78
0
0.9
997
30
8
0.9
998
02
3
0.9
997
89
1
3
0
.99
96
47
5
0.9
997
90
7
0.9
995
86
0
0.9
998
04
9
0.9
997
91
2
0.9
997
98
9
0.9
998
08
9
0.9
999
05
5
4
0
.99
97
38
1
0.9
998
18
9
0.9
996
41
3
0.9
999
28
7
0.9
998
29
7
0.9
998
39
1
0.9
998
79
3
0.9
999
25
6
5
0
.99
97
98
5
0.9
998
82
8
0.9
997
97
4
0.9
998
28
4
0.9
998
49
0
0.9
999
08
3
0.9
998
79
3
0.9
999
23
1
6
0
.99
98
48
8
0.9
998
79
2
0.9
998
34
2
0.9
997
67
1
0.9
998
89
2
0.9
999
18
6
0.9
998
72
0
0.9
999
19
6
7
0
.99
98
79
0
0.9
999
09
4
0.9
998
70
8
0.9
998
90
0
0.9
999
09
3
0.9
998
99
5
0.9
999
89
7
0.9
999
19
6
8
0
.99
98
89
6
0.9
998
99
3
0.9
998
43
1
0.9
998
80
3
0.9
998
99
3
0.9
998
89
3
0.9
999
38
6
0.9
999
86
6
9
0
.99
98
79
0
0.9
999
29
5
0.9
998
67
7
0.9
998
37
9
0.9
998
99
3
0.9
998
89
3
0.9
998
84
2
0.9
998
69
4
1
0
0.9
998
79
0
0.9
999
29
5
0.9
998
27
0
0.9
998
73
7
0.9
999
09
3
0.9
998
99
4
0.9
998
82
7
0.9
999
85
6
1
1
0.9
998
72
2
0.9
999
19
4
0.9
997
55
7
0.9
998
88
5
0.9
998
99
2
0.9
999
09
4
0.9
998
25
7
0.9
999
09
5
1
2
0.9
998
28
5
0.9
998
74
3
0.9
997
86
2
0.9
998
37
8
0.9
998
69
0
0.9
999
09
4
0.9
998
69
1
0.9
999
09
5
1
3
0.9
998
18
4
0.9
998
38
8
0.9
998
06
5
0.9
997
56
7
0.9
998
48
8
0.9
998
99
3
0.9
998
59
0
0.9
999
09
5
1
4
0.9
997
88
1
0.9
998
18
7
0.9
997
45
4
0.9
998
63
4
0.9
997
98
4
0.9
998
69
1
0.9
998
77
8
0.9
999
64
9
1
5
0.9
997
07
3
0.9
997
78
3
0.9
996
84
2
0.9
997
65
9
0.9
997
47
9
0.9
998
49
0
0.9
998
59
0
0.9
998
49
2
1
6
0.9
995
55
8
0.9
997
17
8
0.9
995
31
3
0.9
997
46
4
0.9
996
36
9
0.9
998
18
7
0.9
998
08
6
0.9
998
49
1
1
7
0.9
994
04
1
0.9
996
37
1
0.9
993
27
2
0.9
997
46
3
0.9
994
35
0
0.9
997
48
2
0.9
996
07
0
0.9
997
98
8
1
8
0.9
991
51
1
0.9
995
96
6
0.9
991
43
1
0.9
996
75
2
0.9
991
82
4
0.9
997
17
9
0.9
994
15
3
0.9
997
98
8
1
9
0.9
988
26
7
0.9
995
46
0
0.9
988
36
0
0.9
996
24
3
0.9
989
99
8
0.9
996
57
4
0.9
997
28
0
0.9
998
54
2
2
0
0.9
987
38
9
0.9
995
57
8
0.9
985
68
9
0.9
995
42
9
0.9
989
88
7
0.9
996
60
3
0.9
994
39
3
0.9
998
49
0
2
1
0.9
987
59
2
0.9
994
82
1
0.9
984
74
7
0.9
993
80
1
0.9
989
06
7
0.9
996
06
7
0.9
995
10
2
0.9
996
98
0
2
2
0.9
987
56
4
0.9
996
27
7
0.9
985
23
7
0.9
992
37
3
0.9
988
85
6
0.9
996
79
3
0.9
995
39
3
0.9
996
47
6
2
3
0.9
988
78
6
0.9
995
63
2
0.9
984
70
1
0.9
993
48
7
0.9
989
83
1
0.9
996
24
2
0.9
996
49
9
0.9
997
07
9
2
4
0.9
988
34
1
0.9
995
84
5
0.9
983
23
8
0.9
994
26
2
0.9
988
52
4
0.9
996
57
6
0.9
993
48
4
0.9
997
58
2
2
5
0.9
989
73
6
0.9
994
36
4
0.9
983
51
9
0.9
991
84
8
0.9
989
88
3
0.9
996
96
6
0.9
992
61
0
0.9
996
87
6
2
6
0.9
989
47
0
0.9
994
56
3
0.9
981
94
4
0.9
991
33
1
0.9
989
41
1
0.9
996
14
1
0.9
992
44
9
0.9
998
54
2
2
7
0.9
989
70
9
0.9
994
16
3
0.9
981
39
5
0.9
992
34
5
0.9
990
23
7
0.9
996
09
7
0.9
994
53
9
0.9
996
86
2
2
8
0.9
987
62
5
0.9
994
98
2
0.9
982
18
9
0.9
992
13
5
0.9
988
57
2
0.9
996
59
6
0.9
994
87
5
0.9
996
80
0
2
9
0.9
986
77
3
0.9
992
99
9
0.9
981
32
7
0.9
991
00
4
0.9
988
66
1
0.9
996
14
2
0.9
996
87
0
0.9
996
77
0
3
0
0.9
988
84
7
0.9
994
09
1
0.9
980
46
1
0.9
990
68
9
0.9
989
46
7
0.9
996
05
2
0.9
993
47
3
0.9
997
88
9
A
pp
end
ix B
, co
nti
nu
ed
A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Age
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
3
1
0.9
987
65
2
0.9
993
65
7
0.9
978
23
6
0.9
988
72
3
0.9
990
76
8
0.9
996
37
8
0.9
995
65
8
0.9
996
66
7
3
2
0.9
988
36
1
0.9
992
52
2
0.9
984
85
0
0.9
986
97
8
0.9
988
82
0
0.9
995
13
0
0.9
993
95
5
0.9
998
01
6
3
3
0.9
986
03
2
0.9
992
61
5
0.9
980
23
2
0.9
987
89
7
0.9
987
89
2
0.9
995
21
5
0.9
995
21
8
0.9
994
94
0
3
4
0.9
985
46
6
0.9
991
14
8
0.9
978
98
4
0.9
985
54
4
0.9
988
41
9
0.9
994
82
7
0.9
991
11
1
0.9
998
78
6
3
5
0.9
983
43
2
0.9
990
78
8
0.9
977
83
9
0.9
985
78
9
0.9
987
14
2
0.9
994
48
0
0.9
990
66
8
0.9
997
47
8
3
6
0.9
982
16
0
0.9
989
59
0
0.9
978
42
2
0.9
986
18
3
0.9
986
73
3
0.9
993
09
6
0.9
995
93
4
0.9
993
52
2
3
7
0.9
982
12
8
0.9
988
81
8
0.9
975
31
6
0.9
982
75
4
0.9
985
87
0
0.9
993
29
4
0.9
992
96
6
0.9
994
02
4
3
8
0.9
981
67
9
0.9
989
57
3
0.9
973
45
7
0.9
982
43
6
0.9
985
43
7
0.9
993
39
1
0.9
994
63
4
0.9
997
92
1
3
9
0.9
979
76
9
0.9
987
95
7
0.9
972
00
8
0.9
982
69
2
0.9
984
02
7
0.9
993
08
6
0.9
990
00
6
0.9
998
60
2
4
0
0.9
978
05
6
0.9
986
46
5
0.9
970
44
1
0.9
980
79
4
0.9
983
11
3
0.9
991
75
3
0.9
992
52
3
0.9
995
07
2
4
1
0.9
976
43
7
0.9
984
90
7
0.9
969
39
3
0.9
976
90
8
0.9
983
18
8
0.9
990
28
8
0.9
988
02
4
0.9
994
01
0
4
2
0.9
974
91
1
0.9
984
80
1
0.9
966
51
8
0.9
974
97
8
0.9
981
08
1
0.9
989
58
5
0.9
989
14
2
0.9
993
99
2
4
3
0.9
972
32
2
0.9
983
24
7
0.9
961
46
8
0.9
971
67
5
0.9
977
92
1
0.9
988
05
3
0.9
985
41
0
0.9
992
07
1
4
4
0.9
969
39
6
0.9
981
54
6
0.9
958
41
0
0.9
971
90
9
0.9
975
15
8
0.9
986
30
1
0.9
989
38
4
0.9
992
32
3
4
5
0.9
966
65
6
0.9
980
17
0
0.9
956
72
2
0.9
971
51
4
0.9
973
84
0
0.9
985
43
3
0.9
991
60
6
0.9
991
95
3
4
6
0.9
964
10
2
0.9
979
71
5
0.9
952
62
2
0.9
968
06
0
0.9
971
46
4
0.9
984
41
7
0.9
984
12
5
0.9
991
48
3
4
7
0.9
960
34
8
0.9
977
77
3
0.9
944
64
4
0.9
965
73
7
0.9
966
96
3
0.9
982
23
6
0.9
980
91
7
0.9
989
31
3
4
8
0.9
955
58
9
0.9
977
58
0
0.9
938
73
7
0.9
958
29
7
0.9
964
32
0
0.9
982
26
8
0.9
984
22
7
0.9
991
05
0
4
9
0.9
951
73
6
0.9
974
19
9
0.9
935
92
9
0.9
952
79
5
0.9
962
39
1
0.9
978
97
4
0.9
981
43
3
0.9
985
46
3
5
0
0.9
948
26
2
0.9
972
40
4
0.9
929
95
6
0.9
951
39
3
0.9
958
31
5
0.9
978
01
7
0.9
976
96
0
0.9
988
95
6
5
1
0.9
946
04
0
0.9
969
18
0
0.9
922
74
4
0.9
945
84
5
0.9
952
16
0
0.9
975
88
0
0.9
967
44
3
0.9
988
87
1
5
2
0.9
938
85
7
0.9
967
22
5
0.9
914
35
7
0.9
938
44
7
0.9
947
79
1
0.9
973
64
2
0.9
983
97
4
0.9
984
07
1
5
3
0.9
935
77
8
0.9
962
73
3
0.9
911
11
4
0.9
933
82
1
0.9
942
27
4
0.9
970
97
2
0.9
968
60
2
0.9
983
37
7
5
4
0.9
937
27
0
0.9
965
31
5
0.9
900
32
6
0.9
930
64
1
0.9
941
93
1
0.9
968
27
8
0.9
975
54
3
0.9
986
31
3
5
5
0.9
933
96
9
0.9
956
70
7
0.9
887
02
8
0.9
924
57
2
0.9
934
91
2
0.9
964
93
2
0.9
974
62
1
0.9
986
21
4
5
6
0.9
918
40
6
0.9
948
70
5
0.9
874
47
5
0.9
915
37
7
0.9
929
31
9
0.9
962
91
8
0.9
961
66
5
0.9
977
92
0
5
7
0.9
913
79
4
0.9
945
31
2
0.9
853
51
4
0.9
915
21
5
0.9
921
16
0
0.9
959
72
2
0.9
953
84
4
0.9
976
26
6
5
8
0.9
909
71
2
0.9
941
93
6
0.9
845
67
0
0.9
907
59
1
0.9
912
83
9
0.9
952
99
6
0.9
949
46
7
0.9
973
09
2
5
9
0.9
901
90
7
0.9
936
50
4
0.9
834
18
9
0.9
895
99
7
0.9
909
03
3
0.9
947
66
8
0.9
940
60
2
0.9
969
25
5
6
0
0.9
887
52
9
0.9
932
47
5
0.9
819
68
7
0.9
890
75
1
0.9
899
16
5
0.9
942
79
5
0.9
936
07
3
0.9
970
52
4
A
pp
end
ix B
, co
nti
nu
ed
A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
Age
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
Mal
e F
emal
e M
ale
Fem
ale
6
1
0.9
881
64
3
0.9
928
14
7
0.9
815
99
6
0.9
888
84
5
0.9
891
76
2
0.9
936
12
1
0.9
934
31
9
0.9
967
91
2
6
2
0.9
874
36
8
0.9
922
28
3
0.9
805
95
8
0.9
881
22
6
0.9
889
53
4
0.9
930
94
9
0.9
946
06
5
0.9
961
03
3
6
3
0.9
870
22
7
0.9
917
29
8
0.9
786
30
9
0.9
870
01
1
0.9
877
62
2
0.9
925
89
1
0.9
947
44
3
0.9
956
64
7
6
4
0.9
849
14
3
0.9
900
88
0
0.9
760
64
2
0.9
850
52
1
0.9
863
99
0
0.9
915
45
6
0.9
949
89
6
0.9
954
54
2
6
5
0.9
830
89
3
0.9
888
80
3
0.9
736
70
4
0.9
843
58
7
0.9
853
20
3
0.9
908
97
7
0.9
919
43
8
0.9
944
70
9
6
6
0.9
828
87
0
0.9
887
32
1
0.9
715
13
6
0.9
836
73
6
0.9
844
41
6
0.9
901
32
4
0.9
915
67
8
0.9
939
02
5
6
7
0.9
818
15
8
0.9
877
62
1
0.9
715
67
7
0.9
820
46
0
0.9
835
99
8
0.9
893
00
5
0.9
928
59
1
0.9
934
86
4
6
8
0.9
800
22
1
0.9
863
68
0
0.9
703
60
5
0.9
813
82
0
0.9
819
16
1
0.9
887
17
0
0.9
917
21
6
0.9
941
75
2
6
9
0.9
780
20
9
0.9
853
75
8
0.9
682
17
9
0.9
792
13
3
0.9
807
90
0
0.9
876
76
7
0.9
886
06
6
0.9
926
08
5
7
0
0.9
758
42
6
0.9
841
96
9
0.9
659
28
7
0.9
771
06
0
0.9
798
23
8
0.9
871
14
0
0.9
880
75
2
0.9
908
96
2
7
1
0.9
738
13
1
0.9
822
97
9
0.9
624
44
8
0.9
746
72
1
0.9
774
95
0
0.9
862
12
0
0.9
863
76
3
0.9
911
15
3
7
2
0.9
721
14
5
0.9
809
08
5
0.9
595
18
9
0.9
721
09
4
0.9
760
59
8
0.9
845
19
2
0.9
850
29
3
0.9
887
32
5
7
3
0.9
688
53
8
0.9
791
24
7
0.9
551
60
8
0.9
712
65
6
0.9
732
42
8
0.9
830
69
0
0.9
866
01
6
0.9
890
57
4
7
4
0.9
658
63
4
0.9
769
35
7
0.9
546
68
2
0.9
688
01
8
0.9
706
77
2
0.9
815
25
1
0.9
831
59
8
0.9
867
94
9
7
5
0.9
638
96
5
0.9
743
64
5
0.9
539
88
5
0.9
662
39
5
0.9
681
58
5
0.9
791
05
6
0.9
813
40
2
0.9
848
97
0
7
6
0.9
595
36
5
0.9
708
38
6
0.9
478
17
0
0.9
649
32
2
0.9
646
12
1
0.9
760
92
2
0.9
791
60
6
0.9
820
04
8
7
7
0.9
546
61
5
0.9
678
62
8
0.9
414
03
9
0.9
629
63
0
0.9
605
00
4
0.9
732
33
1
0.9
764
61
9
0.9
830
87
3
7
8
0.9
513
95
9
0.9
646
11
4
0.9
350
80
5
0.9
570
37
8
0.9
558
80
6
0.9
700
92
9
0.9
716
57
0
0.9
838
03
6
7
9
0.9
469
32
7
0.9
603
19
1
0.9
330
89
9
0.9
514
11
7
0.9
526
49
7
0.9
660
62
8
0.9
690
53
0
0.9
778
20
4
8
0
0.9
409
31
6
0.9
575
08
4
0.9
305
39
4
0.9
502
88
6
0.9
494
23
9
0.9
634
35
8
0.9
660
95
2
0.9
743
09
6
8
1
0.9
342
81
5
0.9
530
44
4
0.9
207
51
3
0.9
457
42
6
0.9
430
16
3
0.9
597
31
6
0.9
596
56
4
0.9
678
13
4
8
2
0.9
265
32
6
0.9
455
97
7
0.9
157
51
1
0.9
399
00
9
0.9
379
28
8
0.9
537
98
6
0.9
554
64
0
0.9
719
32
6
8
3
0.9
200
95
8
0.9
391
11
6
0.9
132
91
1
0.9
336
01
3
0.9
346
65
0
0.9
480
08
6
0.9
548
85
8
0.9
627
91
9
8
4
0.9
129
70
7
0.9
332
50
0
0.9
040
62
6
0.9
284
24
5
0.9
265
09
1
0.9
418
28
2
0.9
434
83
0
0.9
605
64
3
8
5
0.8
583
44
6
0.8
734
64
9
0.8
578
40
8
0.8
755
79
1
0.8
811
14
7
0.8
934
76
9
0.9
215
41
8
0.9
411
03
7
Appendix C
Baseline Fertility Rates by Age, Sex
and Race/Ethnicity for 2009-2011
for the State of Texas
Appendix C: Baseline Fertility Rates by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for 2009-2011
for the State of Texas
Age Anglo Black Hispanic Other
10 0.0000074 0.0000546 0.0000575 0.0000074
11 0.0000074 0.0000152 0.0000114 0.0000303
12 0.0000052 0.0000754 0.0000661 0.0002037
13 0.0001440 0.0011074 0.0008817 0.0000624
14 0.0008677 0.0044434 0.0050344 0.0011937
15 0.0038569 0.0127234 0.0185216 0.0034073
16 0.0111421 0.0265964 0.0431363 0.0081419
17 0.0234585 0.0441989 0.0735053 0.0143170
18 0.0438126 0.0744286 0.1038420 0.0227172
19 0.0665324 0.1050487 0.1340358 0.0344757
20 0.0776228 0.1254590 0.1441170 0.0424676
21 0.0828261 0.1313768 0.1510724 0.0473595
22 0.0882517 0.1274107 0.1508594 0.0541751
23 0.0900165 0.1226507 0.1490776 0.0586091
24 0.0919192 0.1141006 0.1436466 0.0688297
25 0.0978958 0.1077388 0.1422385 0.0777695
26 0.1080008 0.1047194 0.1404465 0.0883973
27 0.1118106 0.0957827 0.1328580 0.1023414
28 0.1167378 0.0955500 0.1271217 0.1130089
29 0.1157233 0.0875634 0.1199119 0.1257421
30 0.1113788 0.0789765 0.1112718 0.1279672
31 0.1101543 0.0745499 0.1088912 0.1318805
32 0.0974686 0.0681247 0.0977994 0.1237430
33 0.0868555 0.0603707 0.0872425 0.1160181
34 0.0767541 0.0526372 0.0779117 0.0973245
35 0.0632396 0.0476937 0.0669617 0.0870251
36 0.0513983 0.0383941 0.0581241 0.0755754
37 0.0401714 0.0300944 0.0467885 0.0588200
38 0.0311286 0.0256251 0.0382797 0.0474411
39 0.0227104 0.0197269 0.0298151 0.0352012
40 0.0163416 0.0141883 0.0220572 0.0252022
41 0.0115548 0.0097804 0.0160331 0.0180574
42 0.0071534 0.0063655 0.0100450 0.0113144
43 0.0040729 0.0041205 0.0062736 0.0065597
44 0.0023923 0.0019972 0.0031624 0.0038602
45 0.0011583 0.0011771 0.0014945 0.0024782
46 0.0005624 0.0006386 0.0008100 0.0011383
47 0.0003242 0.0004466 0.0003060 0.0009061
48 0.0001781 0.0001504 0.0002265 0.0002936
49 0.0000960 0.0001485 0.0000381 0.0001422
Appendix D
Baseline Migration Rates (per person per
year) by Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity for
2000-2010 for the State of Texas
A
pp
end
ix D
: B
asel
ine
Mig
rati
on
Rat
es (
per
per
son
per
yea
r) b
y A
ge,
Sex
an
d R
ace/
Eth
nic
ity f
or
2000
-20
10
fo
r th
e S
tate
of
Tex
as
A
nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
A
ge
Mal
e F
emal
e
Mal
e F
emal
e
Mal
e F
emal
e
Mal
e F
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e
0
0
.00
10
70
0
0.0
010
70
0
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010
85
0
0.0
010
85
0
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012
50
6
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009
16
0
0.0
194
23
9
0.0
203
94
3
1
0
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15
21
7
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90
7
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90
9
0.0
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05
6
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46
1
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95
5
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210
94
1
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200
22
9
2
0
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19
73
3
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11
5
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7
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027
26
1
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41
7
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74
9
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33
1
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24
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0
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7
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268
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Ap
pen
dix
D,
conti
nu
ed
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nglo
B
lack
H
isp
anic
O
ther
A
ge
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e F
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14
6
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51
9
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00
6
0.0
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49
4
0.0
477
52
9
3
8
0.0
042
96
8
0.0
038
18
4
0.0
145
97
3
0.0
170
39
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53
0
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80
6
0.0
342
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1
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442
24
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3
9
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3
0.0
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51
7
0.0
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46
0
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53
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0
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336
06
4
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4
0
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6
0.0
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26
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5
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26
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22
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42
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4
1
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8
0.0
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91
7
0.0
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0.0
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3
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78
9
0.0
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04
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0.0
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51
3
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6
0.0
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7
0.0
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78
7
0.0
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48
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3
0.0
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72
5
0.0
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59
9
0.0
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36
2
0.0
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19
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0.0
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58
6
0.0
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8
0.0
314
36
1
0.0
322
57
2
4
4
0.0
033
87
8
0.0
026
50
2
0.0
139
28
5
0.0
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32
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
243
64
4
0.0
286
50
4
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5
0.0
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3
0.0
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59
8
0.0
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0.0
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51
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8
0.0
231
03
7
0.0
290
63
6
4
6
0.0
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28
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0.0
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59
5
0.0
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3
0.0
284
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7
4
7
0.0
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1
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3
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07
8
0.0
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7
0.0
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76
1
0.0
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25
5
0.0
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21
2
0.0
299
41
7
4
8
0.0
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06
4
0.0
016
77
5
0.0
136
66
2
0.0
104
15
9
0.0
098
08
9
0.0
120
49
7
0.0
218
53
2
0.0
258
32
3
4
9
0.0
031
02
0
0.0
030
08
0
0.0
116
27
7
0.0
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48
0
0.0
083
14
5
0.0
113
12
5
0.0
209
88
7
0.0
273
68
6
5
0
0.0
021
28
4
0.0
021
46
1
0.0
118
90
0
0.0
089
32
9
0.0
078
33
4
0.0
107
24
2
0.0
197
13
6
0.0
222
65
7
5
1
0.0
034
64
5
0.0
034
64
4
0.0
138
47
4
0.0
119
42
6
0.0
106
36
8
0.0
128
12
6
0.0
198
17
1
0.0
207
44
0
5
2
0.0
029
75
2
0.0
026
03
5
0.0
123
57
4
0.0
110
82
4
0.0
079
52
8
0.0
110
81
5
0.0
199
59
5
0.0
206
34
6
5
3
0.0
034
22
8
0.0
029
39
0
0.0
104
38
2
0.0
127
01
7
0.0
096
20
5
0.0
115
33
4
0.0
193
45
0
0.0
225
38
3
5
4
0.0
039
26
3
0.0
044
78
4
0.0
152
25
1
0.0
129
83
2
0.0
097
54
1
0.0
127
96
8
0.0
185
19
2
0.0
185
80
2
5
5
0.0
026
53
3
0.0
028
97
2
0.0
107
85
0
0.0
100
53
4
0.0
078
92
1
0.0
118
53
0
0.0
147
33
4
0.0
167
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1
