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Projected Costs of Generating Electricity2010 Edition
Projected Costs of Generating Electricity
This joint report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is the seventh in a series of studies on electricity generating costs. It presents the latest data available for a wide variety of fuels and technologies, including coal and gas (with and without carbon capture), nuclear, hydro, onshore and offshore wind, biomass, solar, wave and tidal as well as combined heat and power (CHP). It provides levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) per MWh for almost 200 plants, based on data covering 21 countries (including four major non-OECD countries), and several industrial companies and organisations. For the first time, the report contains an extensive sensitivity analysis of the impact of variations in key parameters such as discount rates, fuel prices and carbon costs on LCOE. Additional issues affecting power generation choices are also examined.
The study shows that the cost competitiveness of electricity generating technologies depends on a number of factors which may vary nationally and regionally. Readers will find full details and analyses, supported by over 130 figures and tables, in this report which is expected to constitute a valuable tool for decision makers and researchers concerned with energy policies and climate change.
-:HSTCQE=U]YXU]::(66 2010 03 1 P) 70ISBN 978-92-64-08430-8
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erating Electricity 2010 Ed
Projected Costs of Generating Electricity
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
InternatIonal energy agencyThe International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in Novem-
ber 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member countries on sound energy policy.
The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency aims to: Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in
particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental pro-tection in a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change.
Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data.
Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders.
IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea (Republic of), Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA.
nUclear energy agencyThe OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name
of the OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agency. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its first non-European full member. NEA membership today consists of 28 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzer-land, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Com-munities also takes part in the work of the Agency.
The mission of the NEA is: to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through interna-
tional co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, envi-ronmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as
to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as energy and sustainable development.
Specific areas of competence of the NEA include safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information.
The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. In these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear field.
organISatIon For econoMIc co-oPeratIon anD DeVeloPMentThe OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to
address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD.
OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisations statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fdration, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
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Also available in French under the title:
Cots prvisionnels de production de llectricitdition 2010
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
This joint report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is the seventh in a series of studies, started in 1983, on the projected costs of electricity generation. Despite increased concerns about the confidentiality of commercially relevant cost data, the 2010 edition thanks to the co-operation of member countries, non-member countries, industry and academia includes a larger number of technologies and countries than ever before.
The study contains data on electricity generating costs for almost 200 power plants in 17 OECD member countries and 4 non-OECD countries. It was conducted under the supervision of the Ad hoc Expert Group on Electricity Generating Costs which was composed of representatives of the participating OECD member countries, experts from the industry and academia as well as from the European Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Experts from Brazil, India and Russia also participated.
In Part I, the study presents the projected costs of generating electricity calculated according to common methodological rules on the basis of the data provided by participating countries and organisations. Data were received for a wide variety of fuels and technologies, including coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, onshore and offshore wind, biomass, solar, wave and tidal. Cost estimates were also provided for combined heat and power (CHP) plants, as well as for coal plants that include carbon capture. As in previous studies of the same series, all costs and benefits were discounted or capitalised to the date of commissioning in order to calculate the levelised costs of electricity (LCOE) per MWh, based on plant operating lifetime data.
The LCOE provided in Part I depend heavily, of course, on the underlying assumptions. While reasonable and vetted by experts, these assumptions can never cover all cases. Part II therefore provides a number of sensitivity analyses that show the relative impact on LCOE of changes in key underlying variables such as discount rates, fuel, carbon or construction costs, or even load factors and lifetimes of plants. This provides the reader with a more complete picture.
In addition, Part II also contains a number of discussions on boundary issues that do not necessarily ent