Project Team Mekani - University of California,...
Transcript of Project Team Mekani - University of California,...
What Is The Problem?
First Generation Biofuel
Compete with Food Crops
“Blend Wall” Limits
Impact on Engines
Regulation & Reality
500
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
RFS 2 Mandate
2,000
Million Gallons
Advanced Biofuels Volume
Others
Biomass Based Diesel
Cellulose
500
991
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
EPA Mandate
1,000
9
RFS 2 Mandate
2,000 2,000
1,000
Advanced Biofuels Volume
Regulation & Reality
Million Gallons
Others
Biomass Based Diesel
Cellulose
500
991
464
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
Results
-58%
834 9
RFS 2 Mandate
370
0
EPA Mandate
2,000
1,000
2,000
Others
Biomass Based Diesel
Cellulose
Advanced Biofuels Volume
Regulation & Reality
Million Gallons
The Solution: Tobacco Reimagined
FOLIUM Farms Crude Oil Extraction
Existing Crude Oil Refineries Existing Liquid Fuel Infrastructure
FOLIUM Plants
2nd Generation Biofuel Issues
1. Scalable Ability to exploit existing infrastructures
2. Compatible Ability to be a drop-in fuel
3. Cost vs. Profit Ability to diversify revenue streams
Folium Advantages
1. Scalable Exploit Existing Infrastructures
2. Compatible Drop-in Fuel
3. Cost vs. Profit Diversify Revenue Streams
Tobacco Plant
Folium Innovation
Products
Problem Solution Folium Response
350,000 Acres of Tobacco in U.S.
Core American Product
Seed Farming
The Plant
Up to 20% of Leaf Mass is Oil
High Leaf / Stem Ratio
Not a Food Crop
Decoupled from Corn Price
Fluctuations
Core American Product
Seed Farming Market
350,000 Acres of Tobacco in U.S.
The Plant
Up to 20% of Leaf Mass is Oil
High Leaf / Stem Ratio
Folium Innovation: The Foundation
1. Produces Alkanes and Terpenes
2. Enhances Photosynthetic Pathways
3. Improves CO2 Uptake
Folium Traditional Tobacco
Folium Innovation: The Impact
Higher Oil Content
More Biomass per Plant
Denser Planting
Drop-in Fuel =
Lower CAPEX and OPEX
10% of US Tobacco Acreage =
14M Gallons: 16% of Total US Drop-in Biofuels
Lower Cost Bigger Scale
Folium Innovation: The Results
Easiness of Implementation
Mar
ket A
ttrac
tiven
ess
High
Low
Hard Easy
1. Market Size 2. Profitability 3. Growth 4. Competitive Landscape
1. Entry Barrier 2. Regulation 3. Technological Synergies 4. Operational Synergies
Products: Market Assessment
Easiness of Implementation
Dyes
Antitumor Medication
Mar
ket a
ttrac
tiven
ess
Paper
Feedstock
Concrete
Coenzyme Q10
BioHeat
Bio Gasoline
Vitamin K2
Power Gen
E-Cigarette
Aromatics
Bioplastic
Insulation
Jet Fuel
Bio Diesel
Oil Solanesol Cellulose
Quinone Nicotine
High
Low
Hard Easy
Products: Market Assessment
Easiness of Implementation
Dyes
Antitumor Medication
Mar
ket a
ttrac
tiven
ess
Paper
Feedstock
Concrete
Coenzyme Q10
BioHeat
Bio Gasoline
Vitamin K2
Power Gen
E-Cigarette
Aromatics
Bioplastic
Insulation
Jet Fuel
Bio Diesel
Oil Solanesol Cellulose
Quinone Nicotine
High
Low
Hard Easy
Products: Market Assessment
Solanesol
Oil
Cellulose / Protein
Products: The Winners
$ 3 – 6 / Gallon
$ 500 – 1,000 / Ton
Fuels
Coenzyme Q10
Vitamin K2
Feedstock
Bioplastic
Product Market Price
$ 100 – 1,000 / Kg
M
argi
ns
Bio Diesel
Jet Fuel
Coenzyme Q10
Bio Gasoline
Bioplastic
Feedstock
Vitamin K2
Volume
Cellulose
Oil Solanesol
High
Low
Low High
Products: The Winners’ Applications
M
argi
ns
Vitamin K2
Bio Gasoline
Bioplastic
Feedstock
Coenzyme Q10
Volume
Jet Fuel
Bio Diesel
Cellulose Solanesol Oil High
Low
Low High
Early Stage Markets with 40% CAGR
Products: The Winners’ Applications
Jet Fuel
Bio Diesel
Bio Gasoline
Coenzyme Q10
Bioplastic
Feedstock
Vitamin K2
Mar
gins
Volume
Cellulose
Oil Solanesol
High
Low
Low High
Growing market with unclear regulation
Early Stage Markets with 40% CAGR
Products: The Winners’ Applications
Volume
Coenzyme Q10
Vitamin K2
Mar
gins
Feedstock
Bioplastic
Bio Diesel
Bio Gasoline
Jet Fuel
Solanesol Oil
Cellulose
High
Low
Low High Mature Markets with low margin
Early Stage Markets with 40% CAGR
Growing market with unclear regulation
Products: The Winners’ Applications
3.6
2.6
Oil Soybean
5.5
Folium
6%
45%
Harvesting
Planting
Processing
Growing
Costs
9K
38%
12%
10K
Revenues
10%
Revenue & Cost Per Hectare Crude Price Comparison $ / Gallons $ / Hectare
An Attractive Business Case
An Attractive Business Case
Folium
5.5
Oil
2.6
3.6
Soybean
45%
67%
Growing
Harvesting
10%
14%
Costs
9K
38%
6%
10K
Planting
12% Processing
18%
Revenues
Revenue & Cost Per Hectare Crude Price Comparison $ / Gallons $ / Hectare
Solanesol
Cellulose
An Attractive Business Case
Folium
5.5
Oil
2.6
3.6
Soybean
45%
67%
Growing
Harvesting
10%
14%
Costs
9K
38%
6%
10K
Planting
12% Processing
18%
Revenues
Revenue & Cost Per Hectare Crude Price Comparison $ / Gallons $ / Hectare
Solanesol
Cellulose
Tobacco Crude
An Attractive Business Case
2.6
5,5
Tobacco Crude
Soybean
3.6
Oil
10K
45%
10%
Processing Harvesting
18%
14% Growing
12%
9K
67%
Costs
Planting
Revenues
38%
6%
Revenue & Cost Per Hectare Crude Price Comparison $ / Gallons $ / Hectare
Solanesol
Cellulose
Tobacco Crude
Flexible Pathways to Scale
Start Up Grow Maturity
CoQ/ Vitamin K2 Biofuels Bio-plastics Jet Fuel
Market Continues to Grow
Folium Cellulose Meets Industry
Needs
Military Regulation is
Finalized
Regulations and Petroleum Prices
Remain Favorable
Mar
kets
Tr
igge
r
Why Folium Can Succeed
1. Drop-in Fuel Reduction of OPEX and CAPEX
2. American Crop Ease for farmers to adopt and reach scale
Why Folium Can Succeed
1. Drop-in Fuel Reduction of OPEX and CAPEX
2. American Crop Ease for farmers to adopt and reach scale
3. Decoupled from Food Market Reduction of volatility on prices (and margins)
Why Folium Can Succeed
1. Drop-in Fuel Reduction of OPEX and CAPEX
2. American Crop Ease for farmers to adopt and reach scale
3. Decoupled from Food Market Reduction of volatility on prices (and margins)
4. Diverse Set of Products Hedge on oil price fluctuation
Why Folium Can Succeed
1. Drop-in Fuel Reduction of OPEX and CAPEX
2. American Crop Ease for farmers to adopt and reach scale
3. Decoupled from Food Market Reduction of volatility on prices (and margins)
4. Diverse Set of Products Hedge on oil price fluctuation
5. Sound Product Roadmap Availability of high margin markets required in the scale-up process
Business Case
2.6
Oil
5.5
Tobacco
4.7
Soybean
Harvesting
38%
12%
Costs
6%
45%
Revenues
10K 10%
Growing
Planting
Processing
9K
Revenue & Cost Per Hectare Crude Price Comparison
Oil
$/gallons $ / Hectare
What are the genetic modifications in Folium?
1. Produces Alkanes and Terpenes
36
2. Translucent Leaves
3. More Efficient Photosynthesis
The scientists need to take tradeoff on what is the best strategy to maximize the value of their technology
37
Focus only on oil Oil and other products based on Quantity
Oil and other products based on Quality Greenhouse
Crude Crude
Cellulose / Lignin
Solanesol
Crude
Cellulose / Lignin
Nicotine
Proteins
Cellulose /Lignin
5 markets 14 markets 14+ markets 20+ markets
Viable Strategies
Quinone
38
A long list of applications has been identified and assessed with a structured process to select a short list of promising ones…
Attractiveness Assessment
External Drivers
Market value Market growth Price/ volumes range Competitive pressure Regulatory
landscaoe
Internal Drivers
Technology fit Operation fit
- Stage 1-
Mirror module for x-ray telescope for far stars and other un-explored universe objects analysisX-Ray telescope
Space & Terrestrial
Panels for terrestrial telescope operating at microwave wavelengthAntenna - MWPanels for terrestrial telescope operating at visible wavelengthAntenna - VisibleMirrors module for planetary observation systemsOther planet observationMirrors module for earth observation systemsOther earth observationMirrors for optical guidance systems for robots and remote control devices in space environmentGuidance system for exploration Mirrors for communication systems between satellites (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Focused scouting of potential technology trends/ new applications for advanced mirrors in DUV lithographyNon EUV lithography applications
Mirrors for medical devicesMedical devices
Other Optical Devices
Mirror modules for metrology instrumentsReflective optical instruments-visibleReflective optical resonator for synchrotron plantsSynchrotronMirror modules for metrology instrumentsReflective optical instr. - UV to X rayReflective Optical Resonator for Free Electron LaserFree Electron LaserReflective Optical Resonator for Lasers Laser systemsComplex metallic mechanical components with e-forming technology (e.g. combustion chamber nozzle,… ) Non optical metallic componentsOthers non Optical
Reflective optical mirrors for concentrated solar power plants collectorsSolar thermal plants concentrators Solar Optical mirrors for photovoltaic collectorsConcentrators for solar photovoltaic
Panels for photovoltaic or solar thermal plantsPhotovoltaic and solar therm. panels
Mirrors for optical guidance systems for missiles, robots and other remote control devicesGuidance SystemMirrors for multi-spectral surveillance systems (e.g. bomb detection, people reconnaissance, man portable devices,…)Surveillance & targeting (Ground)Mirrors for multi-spectral surveillance systems or Targeting systems for helicopter and airplanesSurveillance & targeting (Airborne)
Defense
Normal Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (LPP)Collectors (NIC)Mirror modules for laser/thermal annealing in thermal processingThermal processingIlluminator pack module for EUV lithographyIlluminatorsModule to definitely direct the laser on the waferParticle Beam Optics (PBO)Wafer inspection mirror modules to monitor and verify specifics Wafer Inspection
Mirrors for communication systems for military solutions (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Grazing Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (DPP)
Short Description
Collectors (GIC)
Application
Semiconductors
Mirror module for x-ray telescope for far stars and other un-explored universe objects analysisX-Ray telescope
Space & Terrestrial
Panels for terrestrial telescope operating at microwave wavelengthAntenna - MWPanels for terrestrial telescope operating at visible wavelengthAntenna - VisibleMirrors module for planetary observation systemsOther planet observationMirrors module for earth observation systemsOther earth observationMirrors for optical guidance systems for robots and remote control devices in space environmentGuidance system for exploration Mirrors for communication systems between satellites (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Focused scouting of potential technology trends/ new applications for advanced mirrors in DUV lithographyNon EUV lithography applications
Mirrors for medical devicesMedical devices
Other Optical Devices
Mirror modules for metrology instrumentsReflective optical instruments-visibleReflective optical resonator for synchrotron plantsSynchrotronMirror modules for metrology instrumentsReflective optical instr. - UV to X rayReflective Optical Resonator for Free Electron LaserFree Electron LaserReflective Optical Resonator for Lasers Laser systemsComplex metallic mechanical components with e-forming technology (e.g. combustion chamber nozzle,… ) Non optical metallic componentsOthers non Optical
Reflective optical mirrors for concentrated solar power plants collectorsSolar thermal plants concentrators Solar Optical mirrors for photovoltaic collectorsConcentrators for solar photovoltaic
Panels for photovoltaic or solar thermal plantsPhotovoltaic and solar therm. panels
Mirrors for optical guidance systems for missiles, robots and other remote control devicesGuidance SystemMirrors for multi-spectral surveillance systems (e.g. bomb detection, people reconnaissance, man portable devices,…)Surveillance & targeting (Ground)Mirrors for multi-spectral surveillance systems or Targeting systems for helicopter and airplanesSurveillance & targeting (Airborne)
Defense
Normal Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (LPP)Collectors (NIC)Mirror modules for laser/thermal annealing in thermal processingThermal processingIlluminator pack module for EUV lithographyIlluminatorsModule to definitely direct the laser on the waferParticle Beam Optics (PBO)Wafer inspection mirror modules to monitor and verify specifics Wafer Inspection
Mirrors for communication systems for military solutions (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Grazing Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (DPP)
Short Description
Collectors (GIC)
Application
Semiconductors
Mirror module for x-ray telescope for far stars and other un-explored universe objects analysisX-Ray telescope
Space & Terrestrial
Panels for terrestrial telescope operating at microwave wavelengthAntenna - MWPanels for terrestrial telescope operating at visible wavelengthAntenna - VisibleMirrors module for planetary observation systemsOther planet observationMirrors module for earth observation systemsOther earth observationMirrors for optical guidance systems for robots and remote control devices in space environmentGuidance system for exploration Mirrors for communication systems between satellites (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Focused scouting of potential technology trends/ new applications for advanced mirrors in DUV lithographyNon EUV lithography applications
Normal Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (LPP)Collectors (NIC)Mirror modules for laser/thermal annealing in thermal processingThermal processingIlluminator pack module for EUV lithographyIlluminatorsModule to definitely direct the laser on the waferParticle Beam Optics (PBO)Wafer inspection mirror modules to monitor and verify specifics Wafer Inspection
Grazing Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (DPP)
Short Description
Collectors (GIC)
Application
Semiconductors
Mirror module for x-ray telescope for far stars and other un-explored universe objects analysisX-Ray telescope
Space & Terrestrial
Panels for terrestrial telescope operating at microwave wavelengthAntenna - MWPanels for terrestrial telescope operating at visible wavelengthAntenna - VisibleMirrors module for planetary observation systemsOther planet observationMirrors module for earth observation systemsOther earth observationMirrors for optical guidance systems for robots and remote control devices in space environmentGuidance system for exploration Mirrors for communication systems between satellites (e.g. Free space optics - FSO)Communication
Focused scouting of potential technology trends/ new applications for advanced mirrors in DUV lithographyNon EUV lithography applications
Normal Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (LPP)Collectors (NIC)Mirror modules for laser/thermal annealing in thermal processingThermal processingIlluminator pack module for EUV lithographyIlluminatorsModule to definitely direct the laser on the waferParticle Beam Optics (PBO)Wafer inspection mirror modules to monitor and verify specifics Wafer Inspection
Grazing Incidence Collectors for EUV lithography (DPP)
Short Description
Collectors (GIC)
Application
Semiconductors
Long List of Xxx applications
IN
Additional opportunities identified in the course of interviews and market scouting
OUT
Clear technology limitation Clearly no
concrete market opportunity
Main Sources
Possibility of using Technology capabilities in different sectors Internal interviews and available
information External interviews Team analysis
Short list for detailed analysis
Final Long List
Low High
Internal MLT Factors
Medium
Low
High
Exte
rnal
Mar
ket F
acto
rs
Med
ium
1 2
3
5 9
8
16
17
20
4
6 …
…
- Stage 2-
Short list of xxx prioritized
applications
List of more relevant new applications to be analyzed in details in terms of strategic opportunities
ILLUSTRATIVE
- Stage 3-
Short List of Opportunities