Progress in the scenario building process of Project 3.2.
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Transcript of Progress in the scenario building process of Project 3.2.
Stakeholders of the scenario writing process
-
Scenario Writing Team
3.2.
Other Team Members
3.2.
ECP NETWORK
EXTERNAL EXPERT PANEL
MONITORING COMMITTEE
Information flows in the scenario writing process
Scenario Writing
Future Research
Information Base
KTEN Model
MASST Model
Results of ESPON Projects
Communicationand
Consultation
European Territorial Cohesion
Index
Scenario typology
• Baseline scenario
• Prospective scenarios
• Prospective policy scenarios
• Roll backward scenarios (desirable and undesirable)
1. Baseline scenario
Main driving forces
- ageing of population in Europe, especially in certain areas;- increasing role of transnational private actors;- concentration of financial services in a few world cities;- accelerating rate of diffusion of innovations; challenge to whole of society by the knowledge revolution;- increasing duality between rich and poor (social polarisation);- possible trading of environment for development, in particular in core East-European areas.
2. Prospective scenarios and prospective policy scenarios
a) Prospective scenarios
still to be identifiedRise in power of regions/hollowing out of nation states
still to be identifiedRise in nationalism and power of nation states
still to be identifiedMajor demographic changes:- Mass emigration of qualified people;- Strong natural population fall (epidemics; rise in death rate affecting older persons)- Major extension of life expectancy- Rapid rise in fertility rates- Halt in immigration to Europe- Massive immigration due to conflicts elsewhere
Possible spatial impactsMain drivers of change
- Disparity of access to basic services;- Further differentiation of settlement systems;- Generalisation of pollution, spatial spread of environmental problems;- Increased disparity between attractive regions and old industrial areas;- Rise in settlement around service centres, possibly differentiated by age or income;- Rural areas become recreational and consumption based; not productive; - Segregation of production and consumption sites at global level;- Urban increasingly poor, rural dominated by the wealthy
Spread of consumption-
based economies into larger regions
still to be identifiedRapid and sustained rise in energy
price
- Less use of public spaces;- Macro/pan-European segregation;- More dispersal of communities;- More gated communities and rise in ‘no-go’ areas;- Rise in short-distance migration;- Rise in number of refugees;- Rise in surveillance;- Spatial apartheid of services etc.;- Spatial segregation/’Ghettoisation’
Increase in ethnic/cultural/
religious intolerance
- Change in real estate value;- Counter-urbanisation and sub-urbanisation;- Less commuters and decline of city centres;- Move from North to South to more friendly
climates;- Seasonal movements of populations;- Social spatial isolation and erosion of social
cohesion;- Wider settlements, divided by income/capital
Increase in home-working
- Concentration of production activities;- Improved air quality;- Increase in mobility;- Larger transport networks increasing congestion;- Longer commuting distances;- More dispersed settlement patterns;- Revitalisation of urban areas due to lower pollution levels;- Spatial fragmentation of the production process;- Urban sprawl
Transport becomes environmentally friendly
through new non polluting technologies
still to be identifiedDesertification of cities due to terror risks
still to be identifiedLarge-scale natural or man-caused hazards
(major water pollution; nuclear accident/disaster; flooding on an extensive scale; large-scale coastal
erosion etc;)
b) Prospective policy scenarios
- More decentralised energy production - New spatial patterns and restrictions (windmill parcs), also off-shore (coastal areas)- Manure problem will be solved (biogas)- Bio fuels as a chance for farmers and rural areas (diversification) - Conflicts with other kinds of land-useSmaller production plants and other risks
Stimulation of renewable energy production
- Building of transport networks will become less urgent- Transport modalities will change: transport by trucks and airplanes will decrease; public transport and transport by ships will increase- Markets will become more regional and local- More polycentric development and more monocentric development (concentration in larger cities)- Land-use will change, e.g. land used for food production
Full integration of ecological aspects in prices of products and
services
still to be identifiedPromotion of environmentally friendly transport modes (increase in use of high-speed trains; rise in inland water transportation etc.)
Possible spatial impactsMain fields of policy change
- Changes in spatial organisation of service provision; More specialisation of places and regions- Further collapse of Central Place Theory;- Land use deregulation;- More disparities between regions and countries; spaces and subspaces with most density of business benefit most (core areas)- Rise in movement of industries, more relocation; many old industrial regions and rural areas come into crises; labour intensive regions will become endangered- Spatial polarisation associated to urban sprawl- Agricultural production moves into the periphery
Further liberalisation of exchanges and increased de-regulation of the
market
- More spread of economic growth - Metropolitan areas benefit most because they are situated along transport corridors- Decline of peripheral areas More environmental damage
Integration of European space due to accelerated building of transport
infrastructure
a) Desirable roll-backward scenarios
3. Roll-backward scenarios
- Massive investment in secondary public transport networks;- Expansion of high speed train networks;- Multimodal integrated public transport;- Making the use of private cars unattractive;- More R&D on environmentally friendly transport technologies; application of cars using non-fossil fuel on a wider scale;- New organisation of work with high share of home working/ Free access to IT/Virtual access to services- More localised and less segmented production processes
Reduced traffic flows and widespread use of environmentally friendly transport modes and systems
- Increase attractiveness of peripheral areas to large enterprises;- Enhancement of indigenous economies of peripheral areas;- Investment in public services in peripheral areas;- Reversal of the privatisation process;- Improved governance and increased role of local communities in decision-making.
More polycentric settlement structures at various scales / Equal access to jobs, goods and services across the EU/ High level of cohesion attained
Main necessary drivers of changeDesirable long-term spatial images
- Accessibility improvements for centre-rural hinterland;
- Re-opening of local facilities and public services
- Integrated and harmonised regional plans/ Better territorial governance
- Improved public transport system;
- Increased and improved access to culture
Strong and efficient urban-
rural integration
- Making the use of private cars unattractive;
- Improved public transport systems More compact urban centres
and areas
- More investment in socio-cultural values and new educational principles;- Environmentally friendly agriculture; incentives for local, organic production;- Conservation of rural space;- Limited use of non-renewable resources;- Public investment in renewable energy;- Enforcement of the Kyoto agreement;- Application of the principle of polluter pays
Enhanced territorial
expression of cultural
diversity/ Low level of
environmental damage and
pressure
b) Undesirable roll-backward scenarios
- Growing intolerance and weak integration policies;- Uncontrolled immigration;- Strong liberalism in all sectors;- Generalisation of gated communities generating strong feelings of social injustice
Conflicting European society with increasing nationalism, religious
tensions, strong disparities between rich and poor in cities
- Growing tensions between EU Member States concerning policies related to convergence criteria, EU further enlargement, structural policies, foreign relations etc.- Radicalisation of political situations in a large number of Member States;- External events (military conflicts, strong uncontrolled immigration etc.)- World economic collapse
Disintegrated EU institutions including single currency. Major policies have been re-nationalised
- Weak level of governance in regional policies;- Increasing liberalisation;- Public sector chaos and poor public services;- Increasing out-migration from less developed regions;- Export of polluting activities towards peripheral areas.
EU territory with much stronger regional disparities (economy, demography, environment and
quality of life etc.)
Main necessary drivers of changeUndesirable long-term spatial images
State of the art in the MASST model
MASST is an econometric model estimating the determinants of local development.
Local development is divided between two components, the national component and the local differential shift component. The Masst model estimates both of them.
The structure of the model is represented in the following chart:
Conceptual underpinnings
Socio-structural changes
New technological paradigms
Policies
Scenario elements
Enlargement Structuralmacroeconomic
elements
Economic driving forces
Territorial filters:
geographical position and productive
structure
Territorial context
Regional differetial component
National component
Outcomes
Regional development and imbalance
Economic effects
Conjunturalmacroeconomic
elements
Submodel 1: National component Submodel 2: Regional differential component
Exchange rate movements
€ / $, national currencies
Internal consumption
Δ Efficiency wage (inflation and
productivity increases)
Exports
Macroeconomic elements
Interest rates
Internal investments
Foreign direct investments
Differential shift
Regional differential component
Social and human capital policies
Infrastructural policies
Innovative policies
Structural policies
PAC
Social capital
Human capital
Infrastructural level
Innovative capacity
Regional structural elements
Capital / labour ratio
Population
Macroeconomic policies
Territorial context
Geographical position
Urban structure
Productive structure
National component
National growth - attractiveness - economic success
Regional growth - attractiveness - economic success - spatial spillovers
Regional equity disparities
Final economic effect
Public expenditure
Imports
Accessibility
Baseline Scenario
Two sketches with rather similar character:
long-term trend evolution of the European territory, focussing on aspects of the European periphery
- EUROREG (Warsaw)
- Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Halle)
Prospective Thematic Scenarios
Roll forward scenarios emphasising the long-term evolution in one specific field and its territorial impacts:
Two scenario sketches:
- Spatial impacts of climate change (IGEAT)
- Europe in a context of high energy prices (Tersyn)
Prospective Policy Scenarios
Prospective policy scenarios aim at highlighting the territorial impacts of changes in public policies
Four scenario sketches combining two main policy variables (Dr. Illes and colleagues; Budapest):
- Cohesion and structural policies of the EU and national governments;
- Policies concerning the liberalisation and mobility of labour and capital
Roll backward Scenarios
Starting from a final long-term image and investigating the processes and policies likely to lead to it.
Two desirable scenarios sketches (NISR The Hague and National Technical University Athens): presenting a long-term image similar to the achievement of ESDP principles and assuming substantial changes in public policies
One undesirable scenario sketch (NISR The Hague) presenting a chaotic final image reflecting inefficient and contradictory policies