Progress 8 – Everything you need to knowascl.org.uk/training Progress 8: A recap.

Progress 8 – Everything you need to knowascl.org.uk/training

Progress 8:A recap


The next few years….

2014Wolf Review implementedFirst entry only counted for performance tables

2015 Some schools opt for Progress 8

20161-8 Scale used for Attainment 8 / Progress 8New KS2 assessments (September 2016 Y7)

2017 First reformed GCSEs taken (English and mathematics)1-9 Scale used for new GCSEs

2018 More reformed GCSEs

2021 Pupils with new KS2 assessment from 2016 are now Y11


What was wrong with levels of progress and the current best 8?• Narrow focus• Crudeness of whole levels as starting point• Proxy for attainment• Distorting effect of equivalences


Correlation between 5A*-CEM and 3+LP


Attainment 8

• Helpful to think of four “buckets”– English– Mathematics– Ebacc– Open (or “Other High Value”)

• Point scores in each bucket, using 1 to 8 scale


Maths bucket

Any Ebacc maths qualification viz:• Maths GCSE• Maths AS• Maths level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE)• NOT – free standing maths qualifications (can go into “other” bucket)

• Maths is doubled


English bucket

• English GCSE• English Language GCSE• English Literature GCSE• English AS• English level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE)• English is doubled. English Language is doubled provided Eng Lit is taken.• Best grade of En Lang and Eng Lit counts


Ebacc bucket

Any three* from:• Core science, additional science• Double science• Separate sciences (1, 2 or 3)**• Modern/ancient languages• History• Geography• Computer Science***• NOT - English

* mindful of discounting/early entry rules

** different discounting rules from Ebacc

*** not all AOs have an approved Computing qual yet


Following P8, how many more students

will be following 3 Ebacc subjects in your

school?

1.A lot more

2.A few more

3.No more


Open bucket

• Any 3 “high value” qualifications:• Can use “spare” Eng/Lit here• Can use spare Ebacc• Can be 3 non-GCSEs


Compare your school against national for each bucket

Be careful – the past is a poor predictor of the future:

Many schools are likely to change entry patterns over the coming years


How will the floor be calculated?

“The minimum requirement will be set on the Progress 8 measure. This measure will be used because it takes into account each school’s intake, and so is the fairest way to identify an underperforming school. It rightly focuses attention on schools which are contributing least to the development of their pupils.”

A school is below the floor if P8 < -0.5 and significantly different from 0

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 20%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Progress 8 score (grades)

5A*-

C

Different schools fall beneath the floor - secondary


Should I “opt in”?

• 2016 – Progress 8 becomes headline indicator for all schools• 2015 opt in available (probably via tables checking site) from 23 June 2014

to June 2015)• Implications of opting in are:

– Publication• (A8, P8, buckets (including GCSE/ voc in 4)

– Floor– Inspection


Opt in checklist• Are you below the floor?• Are your “buckets” full?• Is progress generally good?• P8 will change based on system behaviour over time. Yours may go

down.• Three non GCSEs are allowed in P8• Morally do you think you should be held to account by a progress

measure or a threshold measure?• ASCL survey-

Yes 44%

No 38%

Undecided 18%


Is it a good thing?

• Not as bad as 5ACEM• Recognises progress• Recognises curriculum breadth• Inclusive• Floor is a function of entry

But:• Doesn’t resonate with employers or parents• Has all the negative characteristics of VA measures:

– Outliers– Arcane– Uncertainty until results are published


Is it fair?

• Depends!• It is unbiased (by definition) based on prior attainment only• It is biased (ie mean VA is not zero) for:

– Boys– PP– SEN– White British


Discussion Questions

1. How likely are you to opt into Progress 8? Do you feel that you have enough information to take your decision?

2. What changes will you be making to your curriculum in response to Progress 8?

3. Will you need to increase the number of subjects that your students take when Progress 8 is introduced?

4. Which system would you prefer to be judged by, Progress 8 or Levels of Progress? Do you think that each produces the same results?

5. How will you prepare your staff for the introduction of Progress 8?


Grading discussion- see blog

1. Do you agree with the move towards a grading system of 1-9? What is your view of the suggestion that the gap between each number should be equal?

2. Do you agree that there is a severe grading issue with modern languages? If so, how urgently does it need to be addressed?

3. Why do decision makers see it as being acceptable for standards to rise at KS2 but not at KS4?

4. What is your view of the way in which the reform of curriculum, grading and accountability has been organised? Will it produce a better system?


Whilst the information provided at this event was correct to

the best of the knowledge of the presenters and

organisers, neither ASCL nor Professional Development

can accept liability if at a later date this should prove not to

be the case. Nor can they be held responsible for any

errors or any consequences resulting from its use.

Progress 8 – Everything you need to knowascl.org.uk/training Progress 8: A recap.

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