Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control....
Transcript of Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control....
![Page 1: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability models
Alycia Crall Catherine S Jarnevich Brendon J Panke Mark J Renz
![Page 2: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Habitat Suitability Models
• Inform monitoring and management decisions. • Inform policy.
![Page 3: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Two Studies Aggregating Data
• Roadside ground truthing of invasive species models.
• Comparison of Professional and Professional + Volunteer Datasets.
![Page 4: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How We Built the Models • Compiled points from a number of survey efforts. • Examples of environmental variables: ▫ Yearly precipitation. ▫ Distance from water. ▫ Clay in soil.
• Maxent 3.3.3a. • 25 iterations.
![Page 5: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Black = High Probability White = Low Probability
Wild Parsnip
1 : 4,000,000
![Page 6: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Sturgeon Bay
1 : 316,800
![Page 7: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Rileys Bay
Little Sturgeon Bay
Sand Bay
1 : 31,680
![Page 8: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Study 1
• Test model accuracy. • Compare targeted sampling to “business as
usual” sampling.
![Page 9: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Percentage of True and False Negatives by Species
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Spotted knapweed Wild parsnip
False Low
True Low
![Page 10: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Percentage of True and False Positives by Species
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Spotted knapweed Wild parsnip
False High
True High
![Page 11: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Targeted vs. Non-targeted Targeted Non-
targeted
Wild Parsnip Presences 43 (True positives only) 467
Number of Sites Visited 72 (Sites predicted as present only) 1996
% Wild Parsnip 60% 23%
Chi-square p = 5.733e-12
![Page 13: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Study 2 • Comparison of professional datasets and
professional + volunteer datasets.
![Page 14: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Wisconsin Counties with Presence Points
Species Counties Represented
by the Professional Data Set
Counties Represented by the Volunteer Data
Set
Counties Unique to the Volunteer Data Set
Counties Represented by the Professional + Volunteer Data Set
Alliaria petiolata 35 31 10 45
Berberis thungbergii 18 5 4 22
Cirsium palustre 9 11 2 11
Polygonum cuspidatum 2 43 41 43
Pastinaca sativa 13 3 2 15
![Page 15: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Percent Contribution to the Model
Variables A. petiolata
Professional Data Set
Average annual precipation, 1971-2000 19.3
Maximum NDVI, 2006-2010 15.7
Soil pH 15.2
Soil organic matter 11.4
Percent clay 11.3
Distance to urban areas 8.8
Distance to water 5.8
Average temperature of coldest month, 1971-2000 5.2
Landcover classification 4.7
Tree cover 1.6
Distance to roads 1.2
![Page 20: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Variable A. petiolata
Professional Data Set Professional + Volunteer Data Set
Average temperature of coldest month, 1971-2000 5.2 38.6
Maximum NDVI, 2006-2010 15.7 11.3
Distance to urban areas 8.8 9.9
Soil organic matter 11.4 9.5
Percent clay 11.3 6.8
Soil pH 15.2 5.1
Distance to water 5.8 6.1
Average annual precipitation, 1971-2000 19.3 4.9
Landcover classification 4.7 5.2
Tree cover 1.6 1.2
Distance to roads 1.2 1.4
![Page 21: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Conclusions • Prioritization ▫ Monitoring. ▫ Control.
• Targeted v. “Business as Usual” ▫ Clear advantages. ▫ Combine best part of both techniques.
• Professional v. Volunteer ▫ Geographical extent.
![Page 22: Prioritizing invasive species monitoring using habitat suitability … · 2015-07-30 · Control. • Targeted v. “Business as Usual” Clear advantages. Combine best part of both](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050420/5f8f507ae7afee5db607aa6e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Thank you • North Central Integrated Pest Management Center. • Beaver Creek Reserve Citizen Science Center. • North Woods CWMA. • Ridges Sanctuary. • Wisconsin Department of Transportation. • GLIFWC. • Wisconsin DNR. • SEWISC. • Chequamegon-Nicolet, Hiawatha, and Ottawa national forests. • Marquette County Conservation Department. • National Park Service. • Mt. Horeb High School. • Milwaukee County Parks.