Prices Paid & Received, Commodities, Imports, and Producer Prices · 2021. 2. 17. · PPI...
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Inflation Monitor I: Prices Paid & Received, Commodities, Imports, and Producer Prices Yardeni Research, Inc. July 6, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
Transcript of Prices Paid & Received, Commodities, Imports, and Producer Prices · 2021. 2. 17. · PPI...
Inflation Monitor I:Prices Paid & Received,Commodities, Imports,and Producer Prices
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 6, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 6, 2021 / Prices Paid & Received, Commodities, Imports, and Producer Prices www.yardeni.com
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Surveys 1-3Prices Paid 4Prices Paid & Received 5Commodity Prices & PPI 6-7Commodity Prices & the Dollar 8Imports Prices & PPI 9Prices Paid 10-11
Figure 1.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
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DALLAS FED SURVEY*
Jun
Jun
Prices Paid (80.8)Prices Received (42.8)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
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KANSAS CITY FEDJun
JunPrices Received (48.0)Prices Paid (79.0)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
0
50
100
-50
0
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100
NEW YORK FED
Jun
Jun
Prices Received (33.3)Prices Paid (79.8)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
0
50
100
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0
50
100
PHILADELPHIA FED
Jun
Jun
Prices Received (49.7)Prices Paid (80.7)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
-5
0
5
10
RICHMOND FED
Jun
Jun
Prices Received (5.0)Prices Paid (9.0)
* Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.
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Surveys
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
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Jun
PRICES PAID & RECEIVED (REGIONAL BUSINESS SURVEYS)
Jun
Regional Surveys*
Prices Received (44.8)Prices Paid (82.1)
* Average of prices paid and received in surveys conducted by Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Richmond pricesare not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are multiplied by 10 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regionaldiffusion indexes.Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.
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Figure 2.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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PRICES-PAID INDEXES Jun
Jun
Regional Surveys* (Fed) (82.1)
Prices Paid IndexesManufacturing PMI (ISM) (92.1)
* Average of prices paid and received in surveys conducted by Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Richmond pricesare not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are multiplied by 10 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regionaldiffusion indexes.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.
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Figure 3.
Surveys
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210
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Jun
US PURCHASING MANAGERSPRICES-PAID INDEXES
Jun
PMI Prices Paid IndexesManufacturing (92.1)Nonmanufacturing (79.5)
Source: Institute for Supply Management.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025303540455055606570758085
-30-25-20-15-10-505
10152025303540455055606570758085
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: PRICING(percent)
May
Percent Planning to RaiseAverage Selling Prices* (43)Percent RaisingAverage Selling Prices* (40)
* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: National Federation of Independent Business.
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Figure 5.
Surveys
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
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REGIONAL PRICES-PAID SURVEYS & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX Jun
May
Prices Paid* (82.1)
PPI: Intermediate Goods(yearly percent change) (21.8)
* Average of prices received in surveys conducted by Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Richmond prices are notdiffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are multiplied by 10 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regionaldiffusion indexes.Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 6.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
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NATIONAL M-PMI PRICES-PAID INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
Jun
May
M-PMI Prices Paid (92.1)
PPI: Intermediate Goods(yearly percent change) (21.8)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Institute for Supply Management.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
Prices Paid
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
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JunREGIONAL PRICES-RECEIVED SURVEYS & CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
May
Prices Received* (44.8)CPI: Goods(yearly percent change) (8.3)
* Average of prices received in surveys conducted by Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Richmond prices are notdiffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are multiplied by 10 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regionaldiffusion indexes.Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 8.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
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PRICES PAID MINUS PRICES RECEIVED & PPI MINUS CPI INFLATION SPREAD
Jun
May
Prices Paid MinusPrices Received (37.3)PPI Intermediate Goods MinusCPI Goods (13.5)
* Average of prices paid and received in surveys conducted by Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Richmond pricesare not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are multiplied by 10 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regionaldiffusion indexes.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond andBureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 9.
Prices Paid & Received
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
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MayCRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
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PPI Crude GoodsEx Food & Energy
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 10.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
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CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
7/2
PPI Intermediate GoodsEx Food & Energy
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 11.
Commodity Prices & PPI
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
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CRB COMMODITIES SPOT PRICE INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
7/2
PPI Crude Materials
CommoditiesSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 12.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
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230MayCRB COMMODITIES SPOT PRICE INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
7/2
PPI Intermediate Goods
CRB CommoditiesSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 13.
Commodity Prices & PPI
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
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CRB SPOT PRICE INDEXES(1967=100)
7/2
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Raw Industrials*All Commodities**
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Includes aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice,
RBOB gasoline, silver, soybeans, sugar and wheat.
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Figure 14.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
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INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR
7/2
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.
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Figure 15.
Commodity Prices & the Dollar
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Figure 16.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
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US IMPORT PRICE INDEX & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
May
Import Price IndexExcluding Petroleum (6.3)
PPI: Finished GoodsExcludingFood & Energy (2.9)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
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Import Price IndexExcluding Petroleum (6.3)
PPI: Intermediate GoodsExcludingFood & Energy (17.4)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
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May
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Import Price IndexExcluding Petroleum (6.3)
PPI: Crude MaterialsExcludingFood & Energy (45.4)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Imports Prices & PPI
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
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PRICES-PAID INDEX & INTERMEDIATE GOODS PPI
JunMay
Prices Paid Index:Manufacturing PMI (ISM) (92.1)
PPI: Intermediate GoodsEx Food & Energy (17.4)
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 17.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
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PRICES-PAID INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR
Jun
May
Prices Paid Index:Manufacturing PMI (ISM) (92.1)
PCED: Goods (5.4)
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Prices Paid
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0
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PRICES-PAID INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR
Jun
May
Prices Paid Index:Nonmanufacturing PMI (ISM) (79.5)
PCED Services(yearly percent change) (3.1)
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0
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PRICES-PAID INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR
Jun
May
Prices Paid Index:Nonmanufacturing PMI (ISM) (79.5)
PCED ServicesEx Rent of Shelter(yearly percent change) (3.8)
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 20.
Prices Paid
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