Vangelis Papathanassiou Research Director HCMR, Greece

Pressures, in the Mediterranean Sea: The case of SESAME and PERSEUS projects

Outline 1.  Drivers, Threats and Pressures

2.  (2006-2011) 1.  Objectives 2.  Main findings 3.  Data availability

3.  (2012-2016) 1.  Objectives/Project Summary 2.  Consortium 3.  Challenges and Work to be done

4.  Conclusions/Suggestions and missing elements

Pressures • Natural pressures come mainly from climatic variability that

impacts the physical dynamics and hydrological structure • Anthropogenic pressures come from the fast population growth in

coastal areas and the increasing economic activities • Pressures need to be managed though shared policy and decision

making based on scientific knowledge •  Implementation of policies at EU (i.e. CFP, WFD, MSFD etc.) or

Med level (e.g. ECAP) needs to be supported by new knowledge and innovative technologies (e.g. for new monitoring systems) • N and P inputs, atmospheric and land-based sources (point and

diffuse) and nutrient concentrations and ratios have changed the biogeochemical state of the sea in several areas and need to be investigated further

Pressures, Hazards and Threats

urban pollution harmful algal blooms

agricultural pollution

Industrial pollution

coastal erosion

over-fishing alien species

global warming

exploration of resources

Stresses in the Med are shown sooner than the world ocean

aquaculture

tourism

Maritime transport renewable energy

205  

947  

223  

196  

128  

28  

96  

Total  1412  Sept.  2009  

9  

8  

64  

59  

19  

62  

Zenetos  et  al.,  (2009)  

Number of alien species in the European Seas

In the Med: Exotic species,

mainly of sub-

tropical origin,

are now well-

established as

they are

favoured by

temperature

increase

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Alien anom 85Hellenic Waters Anom

Sea water temperature and alien species

r2=0.68,  P=  0.0099    

Raitsos et al., L & O, 2010

The example of the Aegean Sea, with mean increase of 1.8 oC over 20 years (1985-2005)

Sustainable use of non-living resources

•  Sustainable exploitation of non-living resources is very important (unique hydrography of the Med, with warm deep waters, deep-water mass formation…)

•  Hydrocarbons exploration in under way in the eastern Med. Should avoid alteration of the ecosystems

•  Significant questions on the regional and global (worldwide) importance of fluid vents and associated gas hydrate accumulations are pending

•  Seabed mapping should be made (priority in DG MARE); identify and study the seepage ecosystems (ecosystem research on mud volcanoes)

•  Mediterranean Sea is one of the richest of the European seas with large variety of habitats

•  Spatial coexistence of two types of biota: cold-temperate in the cold season (at least in the coldest parts of the basin) and tropical in the warm season

•  Changes in the marine biodiversity have been documented in many parts of the region and are attributed to natural phenomena, global change and anthropogenic activities

•  Decrease in Posidonia oceanica meadows may not only impair the ecosystem functioning, but have a consequence to the CO2 sequestration in the Mediterranean

Species Diversity

Scientific Objectives

1.  Assess the changes or regime shifts in the SES ecosystems over the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings

2.  Assess the current status of the SES ecosystems through analysis of existing and newly collected data as well as through model simulations

3.  Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades

4.  Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to provide goods and services (with potentially high societal importance) •  Goods: tourism and fisheries •  Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of biodiversity,

and mitigation of climate change through carbon sequestration

ES  

FR  

IT  

GR  

RO  

BG  

TR  IS  

RU  

TU  

New data sets. Transects of expeditions

Ten vessels simultaneously conducted multinational cruises March-April & August-September 2008

Current status

CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric CO2

•  Deepening of the Deep Chl Maximum

•  Depletion of nutrients and decrease in conc

•  Prevalence of smaller size fractions of

phytoplankton with autotrophic prokaryotes

becoming important in the East

•  Mesozooplankton variability

•  Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations) •  Increased nutrient inputs • Atmospheric inputs important to the budgets.

Marked seasonality

BS State: recovering

after the 90’s

~1/3 of Posidonia oceanica meadows have been lost in the last 50 years. The density of P. oceanica seems to be decreased

by about 50%

Duarte et al., 2010

Counting the decrease of the P. oceanica meadows, CO2 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3

Posidonia oceanica Meadows

A1B  

20C Pleistocene fossils Zibrowius (1995)

Recent findings Grubelic et al (2004)

21C

Spatial occurrences of the scleractinian coral Astroides Calycularis

The 14-15 °C “divides” Bianchi (2007)

Basin scale models: Changing SST patterns

February surface temperature (SXG)

Predict Ecosystem Changes: Precipitation, Nutrients and higher trophic levels

ü  In 2050, 1/4 of Mediterranean freshwater inputs is lost (from 1960)

ü Nutrients variability may regionally decrease in the North but strongly increase in South & East

ü  Progressive warming evolves with a northward shift of the surface isotherm, paving the way for meridionalization processes in the basin

ü  Introduction of non-indigenous species of tropical origin show a wider basin-scale distribution

ü  Indigenous species with warm-water affinity expand their habitat ranges northward, sometimes at the expenses of the residential cold-water species

Vichi et al. 2009

SESAME’s databases historical, cruise and time series data (physical, chemical and

biological) SESAME  DATABASE

COUNTRY No  DATASETS

GREECE 258 BELGIUM 24 BULGARIA 30 CROATIA 2 EYPT 3

FRANCE 24 ISRAEL 31 ITALY 98 MALTA 3

MOROCCO 1 ROMANIA 36 RUSSIA 35

SLOVENIA 7 SPAIN 21 TUNISIA 1 TURKEY 109 UKRAINE 24

All data will be publically available on April 2013 Stored in PANGAEA Database

HCMR,  Hellenic  Centre  for  Marine  Research  

   Grant  agreement  no:  287600      

Key Figures Ø Project Duration: 48 months Ø Start: 1st of January 2012 Ø 10 Work Packages Ø Budget 12,973,124.40 € Ø 2297 man/months

http://www.perseus-net.eu/

PERSEUS Partnership •  21 countries •  53 partners

Ø 65 Institutes & Universities •  2 Subcontractors • More than 300 scientists

Project Summary 1.  Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived

pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an effective and innovative research framework based on sound scientific knowledge.

2.  Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific survey tool in very shallow areas.

3.  Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between projected human-derived and natural pressures.

4.  Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the MSFD in the SES.

5.  Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy framework in order to design management schemes.

6.  Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.

Work Flow

WP  1  &  2  working  areas    

Well-coordinated scientific research and socio-economic analysis will be applied at a wide-

ranging scale, from basin to coastal

Brief Overview

=Areas  for  development  of  APF  

=EU  studies  

=non-­‐EU  studies  

Areas for demonstration of the MSFD principles & development of (APF)

Conclusions/Suggestions

•  Mediterranean is a very sensitive area, highly stressed ecosystems and very high species diversity

•  Changes in biodiversity may affect the ecosystem functioning, even in the case of invasions by a single species

•  Effects of anthropogenic impacts (e.g. eutrophication, environmental stressors and pollutants) are evident on structural and functional aspects of the Med ecosystems

•  The potential of microbial-molecular parameters should be tested as classical taxonomy could benefit from molecular and genetic techniques

Missing Elements & Problems

•  Scarcity of time series data and information … •  Processes, pathways and fate of pollutants (especially micro-

pollutants) are not well known •  Problems of pollution in the coastal zone persist and are mainly

related to urban waste water •  Changes in productivity (resulting from nutrient loads) •  Seabed mapping is missing (priority in DG MARE) •  Ecological indicators are needed to capture the complexities of

coastal systems which must be regularly monitored •  Sources of pollution and anthropogenic pressures must be

identified (e.g. non-point sources) and the biological effects of long-range pollutants must be ascertained

•  Monitoring capabilities have to be improved. MSFD in place

Thank you!