Preserving Assets in a Changing Environment · Preserving Assets in a Changing Environment: Summary...

1

1

Preserving Assets in a Changing

Environment

Presentation by Nancy Boyd, P.E., L.E.G.

Deputy State Design EngineerWASHTO - Seattle

July 15, 2009

Paula HammondSecretary of Transportation

Steve ReinmuthChief of Staff

Dave DyeDeputy Secretary

2

2

Pre

se

nta

tion

Ov

erv

iew

•M

an

ag

ing

tran

sp

orta

tion

asse

ts:

Co

nte

xt fo

r de

cis

ion

-ma

kin

g a

nd

pla

nn

ing

for th

e fu

ture

•W

ha

t do

es th

e fu

ture

loo

k lik

e:

Th

e W

ash

ing

ton

Sta

te C

lima

te C

ha

ng

e

Imp

act A

sse

ssm

en

t

•C

urre

nt a

nd

futu

re s

trate

gie

s

3

3

Go

ve

rno

r’s C

lima

te C

ha

ng

e C

ha

llen

ge

Exe

cu

tive

Ord

er 0

7-0

2 (2

00

7)

–R

educe e

mis

sio

ns

–A

dapt to

change

–S

upport o

ur e

conom

y

4

4

Wash

ing

ton

Go

vern

or C

hris

tine G

reg

iore

’s

Execu

tive O

rder 0

9-0

5 o

n C

limate

Ch

an

ge

Effective 05/21/2009

- Dire

cts

the D

epartm

ent o

f Ecolo

gy to

invite

the W

ashin

gto

n S

tate

Associa

tion o

f Countie

s

and th

e A

ssocia

tion o

f Washin

gto

n C

ities to

colla

bora

te in

conductin

g a

n e

valu

atio

n a

nd

develo

p re

com

mendatio

ns fo

r addre

ssin

g c

limate

change im

pacts

.

- Evalu

ate

the p

ote

ntia

l impacts

of s

ea le

vel ris

e o

n th

e s

tate

’s s

hore

line a

reas, in

clu

din

g:

• the p

ote

ntia

l incre

ases in

sto

rm s

urg

e a

nd c

oasta

l floodin

g;

• incre

ased e

rosio

n;

• loss o

f habita

t and e

cosyste

ms, a

nd

• develo

p re

com

mendatio

ns fo

r addre

ssin

g th

ese im

pacts

.

5

5

2009 W

ash

ing

ton

Sta

te L

eg

isla

ture

Clim

ate

Ch

an

ge A

dap

tatio

n L

eg

isla

tion

E2

SS

B 5

56

0 –

Sta

te A

ge

nc

y C

lima

te L

ea

de

rsh

ip E

ffective 07/26/2009

- Dire

cts

the D

epartm

ent o

f Ecolo

gy in

consulta

tion w

ith th

e D

epartm

ent o

f Tra

nsporta

tion

and o

ther a

gencie

s to

develo

p a

n in

tegra

ted c

limate

change re

sponse s

trate

gy a

nd p

lan o

f

actio

n to

pre

pare

for a

nd a

dapt to

clim

ate

change im

pacts

-R

esponse s

trate

gy s

hould

inclu

de:

• a ra

nge o

f scenario

s fo

r the p

urp

oses o

f pla

nnin

g in

ord

er to

assess p

roje

ct

vuln

era

bility

;

• sum

mariz

e th

e b

est k

now

n s

cie

nce o

n c

limate

change im

pacts

to W

ashin

gto

n;

• prio

ritize s

olu

tions th

at c

an b

e im

ple

mente

d;

• identify

recom

mended fu

ndin

g m

echanis

ms;

• identify

barrie

rs c

halle

ngin

g s

tate

and lo

cal g

overn

ments

to ta

ke a

ctio

n; a

nd

• regio

nal c

apacity

to u

nderta

ke a

ctio

ns;

6

6

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UW

Clim

ate

Impacts

Gro

up

Clim

ate science in thepublic interest

7

7

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8

8D

ata source: IP

CC

200

1

IPC

C “b

est e

stim

ate

”

range o

f glo

bal-s

cale

warm

ing b

y th

e

2090s:

3.2

°F-7

.2°F

Warm

ing e

xpecte

d

thro

ugh 2

1st c

entu

ry

even if CO

2em

issions end todaydue to

pers

iste

nce o

f

gre

enhouse g

ases

Pro

jec

ted

21

Pro

jec

ted

21

st

st C

en

tury

Glo

ba

l Wa

rmin

g C

en

tury

Glo

ba

l Wa

rmin

g

9

9

Projected Increases in P

NW

Temp

Changes relative

to 1970-1999

7.2

°F

3.6

°F

0°F

10.8

°F

14.4

°F

+2

.2ºF

(1.1-3.4ºF)

+3

.5ºF

(1.6-5.2ºF)

+5

.9ºF

(2.8-9.7ºF)

°C

Rate

of c

hange p

er d

ecade e

xpecte

d to

be 3

x g

reate

r

thro

ugh m

id-2

1st c

entu

ry

Choice of em

issionsscenario m

atter more

after 2050s

Mote

and S

ala

thé

, 2009

10

10

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Mo

te a

nd

Sa

lath

é, 2

00

9

11

11

Changes R

ela

tive to

20

th Ce

ntu

ry

There

is h

igh c

onfid

ence in

pro

jecte

d te

mpera

ture

changes, le

ss in

pre

cip

itatio

n c

hanges.

So

urc

e: C

lima

te Im

pa

cts

Gro

up

, Un

ive

rsity

of W

ash

ing

ton

12

12

Po

ten

tial S

hift in

Pa

cific

Sto

rm T

rack?

Po

ten

tial S

hift in

Pa

cific

Sto

rm T

rack?

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Incre

ases in

win

ter

pre

cip

itatio

n (N

ov/D

ec/J

an)

likely

in th

e 2

nd h

alf o

f the 2

1st

centu

ry d

ue to

pro

jecte

d:

-- Inte

nsific

atio

n a

nd w

idenin

g

of th

e P

acific

sto

rm tra

ck, a

nd

-- Sh

ift no

rthw

ard

of th

e s

torm

track a

nd A

leutia

n L

ow

Salath

é, G

eop

hy

s Res L

ett, 20

06

13

13

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14

14

Fig

ure

sourc

e: IP

CC

, adapte

d b

y C

limate

Impacts

Gro

up

15

15

Sea L

evel R

ise in

the P

acific

NW

Re

lativ

e s

ea

leve

l rise

affe

cte

d b

y

•G

lob

al s

ea

leve

l rise

(thermal expansion, freshw

ater inputs)

•T

ecto

nic

pro

ce

sse

s (subsidence and uplift)

•In

tera

nn

ua

l clim

ate

va

riab

ility (E

l Nino, La N

ina events)

•O

ce

an

/co

asta

l win

ds (can increase regional se level about +8 inches)

•T

op

og

rap

hy/g

eo

log

y (gently sloping beach vs. bluffs)

•S

ho

rt-term

eve

nts

(low pressure storm

s)

So

urc

e: C

lima

te Im

pa

cts

Gro

up

, Un

ive

rsity

of W

ash

ing

ton

16

16

Vuln

era

bility

of P

uget

Sound to

Ris

ing S

ea

Level

•In

undatio

n m

aps d

raw

atte

ntio

n to

larg

e, lo

w-

lyin

g a

reas w

here

exte

nsiv

e flo

odin

g is

possib

le/

•T

hese m

aps d

ow

npla

yhig

h ris

k a

reas w

here

floodin

g is

not th

eprim

ary

hazard

(dow

nto

wn w

ate

rfront,

blu

ff landslid

es,

conta

min

ate

d s

hore

line

site

s)

Sourc

e: H

ugh S

hip

man, D

ept. o

f Ecolo

gy

17

17

Are

as o

f Co

nce

rn

Coasta

l Pro

cesses

•S

ea le

vel ris

e

•E

rosio

n

•F

loodin

g

•In

undatio

n

•(la

ndslid

es)

Coasta

l Ecosyste

ms

•S

alm

on

•S

alt m

ars

h h

abita

t

•S

hellfis

h

So

urc

e: C

lima

te Im

pa

cts

Gro

up

, Un

ive

rsity

of W

ash

ing

ton

18

18

Models

pro

ject m

ore

win

ter

floo

din

g,p

artic

ula

rly in

tem

pera

ture

sensitiv

e“tra

nsie

nt” (ra

in/s

now

mix

)riv

er b

asin

s th

at a

re c

om

mon

in th

e C

ascades

Mantua et al. 2009 (W

AC

CIA

report)

19

19

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Mix

ed

Ra

in/S

no

wR

ain

Do

min

an

t

Ma

ntu

a e

t al. 2

00

9, E

lsn

er e

t al. 2

00

9

Ya

kim

a R

ive

r (Ea

ste

rn W

A)

Ch

eh

alis

Riv

er (W

es

tern

WA

)

20

20

Extre

me P

recip

itatio

n

Consid

era

tions

•G

lob

ally

, mo

re e

xtre

me

pre

cip

pro

jecte

d

•F

or P

NW

, incre

ase in

month

ly a

vera

ge p

recip

pro

jecte

d fo

r Nov-D

ec a

s y

ou m

ove la

ter in

to th

e

centu

ry

•Issue: still have to have the storm

s that bring theprecip

•2009 W

ashin

gto

n A

ssessm

ent p

roje

cts

incre

ase

in th

e 2

5-y

ear, 2

4-h

our d

esig

n s

torm

s in

the

centra

l Puget S

ound R

egio

n fo

r 2020-2

050

•Im

plic

atio

ns fo

r flood, s

torm

wate

r managem

ent

21

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erg

et a

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09

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Incre

ased

sto

rm s

urg

e a

nd

�� e

pis

od

ic flo

od

ing

will

pre

sen

t a g

reate

r near-te

rm

ch

alle

ng

e.

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23

23

Els

ne

r, M.M

. et a

l. 20

09

: Imp

lica

tion

s o

f 21

st C

en

tury

clim

ate

ch

an

ge

for th

e h

yd

rolo

gy o

f

Wa

sh

ing

ton

Sta

te (in

revie

w)

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-44%

-65%

-27%

-37%

-53%

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24

24

Warm

ing tre

nds o

f air a

nd w

ate

r tem

pera

ture

s

acro

ss W

ashin

gto

n S

tate

will a

ffect s

alm

on

Source: M

antua et al. 2009, in press

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00

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Ja

ckso

n e

t al. 2

00

9 (W

AC

CIA

rep

ort)

28

28

Tra

ns

po

rtatio

n A

da

pta

tion

Iss

ue

s

•R

ail lin

es ru

n n

ear w

ate

r in m

any a

reas

–B

oth

oceans a

nd riv

ers

•B

ridge h

eig

hts

•B

ridge s

cour fro

m flo

od e

vents

•F

lood p

rone ro

adw

ays

–A

re th

e ro

adw

ays in

the rig

ht p

lace?

•A

s w

e th

ink o

f infra

stru

ctu

re fo

r the

futu

re, is

it in

the rig

ht p

lace?

29

29

Incre

asin

g R

esilie

nce

•Lim

it arm

orin

g

•R

esto

re s

hore

lines

•R

em

ove d

ikes

•Im

pro

ve p

rocesses fo

r sitin

g n

ew

constru

ctio

n

•S

et b

ack d

evelo

pm

ent

•P

rote

ct k

ey g

eom

orp

holo

gic

pro

cesses

(sedim

ent s

upply

)

•Id

entify

critic

al n

atu

ral a

nd b

uilt e

nviro

nm

ents

•“W

hen e

ngin

eerin

g is

inevita

ble

, be im

agin

ativ

e”

Sourc

e: H

ugh S

hip

man, D

ept. o

f Ecolo

gy

30

30

Ch

alle

ng

es a

nd

Ne

xt S

tep

s

•V

uln

era

bility

asse

ssm

en

ts

•D

eve

lop

ing

relia

ble

scie

nce

•S

ce

na

rio p

lan

nin

g

•P

olic

y a

nd

co

ord

ina

tion

with

mu

ltiple

go

ve

rnm

en

tal e

ntitie

s

31

31

Pre

se

rvin

g A

ss

ets

in a

Ch

an

gin

g

En

viro

nm

en

t: Su

mm

ary

•G

lobal a

nd re

gio

nal c

limate

is a

lready c

hangin

g.

•T

hese c

hanges a

re e

xpecte

d to

contin

ue to

accele

rate

in th

e c

om

ing d

ecades.

•S

ea le

vel ris

e w

ill be e

xperie

nced a

s a

serie

s o

f

escala

ting d

isaste

rs.

•A

ware

ness o

f adapta

tion n

eeds w

ill result in

bette

r long-te

rm d

ecis

ions.

So

urc

e: C

lima

te Im

pa

cts

Gro

up

, Un

ive

rsity

of W

ash

ing

ton

32

32

Clim

ate

Impacts

Gro

up (C

IG)

Info

rmatio

n

•S

um

mary

info

rmatio

n

on P

NW

clim

ate

and

clim

ate

impacts

•C

limate

change

scenario

s

•C

IG p

ublic

atio

ns

•Q

uarte

rly e

lectro

nic

new

sle

tter

•“c

limate

update

” list

se

rve

http

://cs

es

.wa

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Preserving Assets in a Changing Environment · Preserving Assets in a Changing Environment: Summary...

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