DRIVERS OF LANDCOVER AND LANDUSE CHANGE IN KENYA 1983 – 2013

Mike Norton – Griffiths, Dphil., Snr. Research Fellow, ICRAF.Harvey Herr, GIS Consultant, ICRAF.

Agricultural Intensity 1983

Agricultural Intensity 2013

Agricultural Intensity 1983 2013

Increase in Agricultural Intensity 1983 2012

Agricultural Intensity 1983 v. 2013

Impact of Land Tenure on Agriculture

The development trajectory of unadjudicated is 40 years behind that of adjudicated land

Agriculture replaces the Natural Vegetation

… but at the expense of Herbaceous rather than Tree cover

Total Tree Cover 1983 2013

Managed trees (aka trees-on-farms aka agro-forestry) replace natural trees

Increase in Agroforestry 1983 2013of 215,000 hectares

Woody Crops Ha 29,000Hedgerows and Windrows

Ha 62,000KmKm 207,000207,000

Woodlots Ha 48,000Plantations Ha 16,000Scattered Trees Ha 60,000

Impact of Tenure on Tree Cover

Impact of Tenure on Tree CoverAdjudicated Land

Impact of Tenure on Tree CoverUnadjudicated Land

Impact of Land Tenure on Tree CoverInvestment in agro-forestry components

 Leasehold Freehold Unadjudicated

% Trees managed 83% 88% 56%

% TOF cash 83% 53% 29%% TOF landscape 17% 47% 71%

"Cash" Woody crops, woodlots & plantations

"Landscape" Hedgerows, windrows and scattered trees

Are Forests doing a good job?Perhaps …..

Are Forests doing a good job?Mount Elgon

Are Forests doing a good job?Mau Forest

Agriculture in the Mau Forest Reserve 2013

Population Growth and Agricultural Expansion

Agricultural Intensity withinAgro-Ecological Zones

Change in Agricultural Intensitywithin Agro-Ecological Zones

Change in Agricultural Landcover with Rainfall

Change in Agricultural Landcover with Temperature