Rosalina G. de GuzmanPAGASA‐DOSTPhilippines

Department of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Latest Scientific Knowledge on Climate Change and Comprehensive Countermeasures‐towards IPCC Yokohama SessionYokohama, JapanFebruary 14,2014

Outline of Presentation

Philippines is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Ranks 3rd in the World Index Report 2013

The Philippines is one of the mostdisaster‐prone countries in the world,experiencing an average of 20 typhoonsper year. According to the AsianDevelopment Bank, the country losesUS$1.6 billion a year on average becauseof disasters

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in theWestern North Pacific (WNP) during the period1948‐2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formedin the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Dataused: JMA Data set).

s.Tropical Cyclone Frequencyusing 1°x1° (1948‐2010)

s.Visited by an average

19 to 20 Tropical cyclonesEVERY YEAR

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North PacificPeriod: (1948‐2010)

Trends of  Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones

y = -0.026x + 20.22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Nu

mb

er o

f Tro

pic

al C

yclo

nes

Year

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: 1948-2013

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year running mean)

The Frequency of  annual Tropical cyclones  does not show a clear trend, but it shows inter annual  variability.

17 14 8 1237

54

135 133118

76

44 3612 6 10 18

30

50

8372

79

92

90

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Num

ber of Tropical  Cyclon

es

Monthly frequency of  T.C. entering the PAR and landfalling/crossing the Philippines 

Period: 1948‐2013 (66 years)

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of non‐Landfalling TC's

Monthly

Mean              0.4          0.3           0.3          0.5           1.0            1.6           3.3 3.1          3.0         2.5            2.0          1.3 

The monthly mean frequency indicates that there is no month that the Philippines is free of tropical cyclones. It is most active during the months of July, August and September, while there are more number of land falling T.C.s during the last quarter.

Trends of Extreme Tropical Cyclones(>150Kph)

The Frequency of  Extreme Tropical Cyclones (having winds of > 150 kph)  does not show any significant trend, however, there is a decadal variability.  Currently, the trend  of occurrence of strong typhoon is on the rise or in its active phase. 

(9),1987

(10), 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Fre

qu

ency

of

TC

Year

Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2013

Mean= 5.8 or 6 TCsNeutral yearEl Niño yearLa Niña year

DISASTROUS  TROPICAL CYCLONE  (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970‐2010

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage 

in Billion PhP

TY Yolanda(Haiyan) Nov  6 – 9, 2013 39,621.497 ++

TY PABLO(Bopha) Dec 3 – 9, 2012 43,164.245

TY PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 ‐ Oct 10 2009 27.296722

TY PEDRING SEP 24‐ 28, 2011 15.552000

TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000

TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000

TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198

TY_RUPING NOV 8‐14, 1990 10.846000

DISASTROUS  TROPICAL CYCLONE  Number of Casualties > 300

TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties 

TY Yolanda (Haiyan) Nov  6 – 9, 2013 6201

TS Uring * Nov 1‐6, 1991 5101

TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15‐17, 2011 1268

TY Pablo Dec 3 – 9, 2012 1067

TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029

TY Trix Oct 17‐23, 1952 995

TY Amy Dec 6‐11, 1951 991

TY Rosing Oct 30‐Nov 4, 1995 936

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum Wind 

(kph)Date of Occurrence

TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006

TY Loleng 287 (Virac)  Oct 21, 1998

TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981

TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970

TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974

TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum 24‐hour

rainfall (mm)

Date of 

Occurrence

TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001

TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998

TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967

TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974

TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991

TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio)          May 15, 1980

Tropical cyclone statistics in the Philippines

Increasing cost of Damage*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong

were characterized by flashfloods.

Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINAyears and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years

Legend:

Severe drought impacts

Drought impacts with major losses

Moderate drought impacts

Near normal to above normal condition

Way above normal condition

Potential for flood damage

Severe flood damage

¥

Damage on Tropical Cyclone 

Tropical Cyclone Stats:  1970‐2012:

Affected families:  3,016,596

Affected persons: =154,433.96 Million

Casualties:  26,835 persons

Cost of Damages: 1970‐2012

Agriculture:  PhP 231.03  Billion 

Infrastructure:  PhP 93.01  Billion

Private properties:  PhP 13.60  Billion

Total cost of damages: PhP 337.60 Billion

Source: Office of Civil Defense

Note:  Damage report for 2013 is sill not available     

TY Frank  June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) 

TY Milenyo                   Sep 25‐29, 2006

TY Reming                    Nov. 2006

TY Feria                                           Jul 2001

TS Ondoy                                           26 Sep 2009

Landslide : Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

Frequency, duration and intensity of rainfall events have changed.

More and more people are affected by hydromet‐related h d

The past 5 years showed the highest accumulated total cost of damage due to the occurrence of destructive tropical cyclones in the Philippines.  As a matter of fact, the trend of the cost of damage is exponential which has taken a considerable toll in the economic outlook of the country. 

Note: Damage cost not normalized

Damaging Storms/Typhoons and Extreme Rainfall

PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2003

ORMOC FLASHFLOOD November 1991

INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2004

Aug 2004 floods in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in Infanta & Quezon provinces

Mosaic of Dingalantown and vicinity showing flood/ flashflood hazard analysis. (Data: 2005 aerial photographs, courtesy of ICDAI) Source: Cruz, et al, 2005

29 Nov 2006 flood/flashflood in Albay province

Dead Affected population

Total Damage

734 2.0M P5.5B

Jun 2008 flood/flash flood in the Iloilo province

26 Sep 2009 flooding in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces

Bankoff (2003) described that Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding has evolved as a result of the degree of interplay between climate, topography, resource use, and culture over time.

Causes of flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas on 26 September  2009 – due to passage of TS Ketsana

Insufficient carrying capacities

Intense rainfall

High/dense population

High rate of urbanization

Deforestation

Informal settlers

Unabated/rampant development

Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila

TC events: 55 (51.4%) Non-TC events: 52 (48.6%)

Source: HMD, PAGASA

Max 1-hr for TC events: 75.1 mmMax 1-hr for Non-TC events: 97 mm

Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008 was 468 billion PHP (National Statistical Coordination Board). Damage costs range from 3% of GDP (SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100).

Climate change costs represent 1% (1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) & 10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.

Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB

Without CC

With CC

09 October 2009 floods in Pangasinan due to the spill of San Roque dam

Sep - Oct 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel)

Flash flood in Cagayan de Oro & Iligan cities on 16 Dec 2011 due to passage of TS Washi

BOSTON, DAVAO ORIENTAL

CATEEL, DAVAO ORIENTAL

BAGANGA, DAVAO ORIENTAL

COMVAL PROVINCE

Normal RR for 

August 504.2 mm

Percent

Normal

Total  August 1‐8 1199.1 mm 237.8 %

6 August 323.4 mm 64.1 %

7 August                391.7 mm 77.6 %

8 August 292.6 mm 58.03%

Total 2day RR 

(Aug 6‐7) 741.8 mm 141.8%

Total 3day RR 

(Aug 6‐8) 1007.4 mm 199.8%Duration of continuous rainfall  from July 16 to date = 24 days`

Southwest Monsoon August 2012

Damage Airport

www.buzzfeed.com

Why there is a need for Adaptation

Based on these major points Urgency ‐ climate change is occurring now

Climate variability and change is currently a threat to development

We know enough about the nature of climate change to take sensible decisions about adaptation now

A climate risk & development perspective approach

Can we assess the costs of adaptation?

What are the critical next steps?

National Framework Strategy on Climate Change• Government policy and country’s roadmap towards climate change mitigation and adaptation, with emphasis on disaster risk reduction (DRR)

• Basis for the program on climate change planning, research and development, extension, and monitoring of activities on climate change

SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTGoal: To build the adaptive capacity of communities and increase the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation opportunities towards sustainable development.

VISION:A climate risk‐resilient Philippines with healthy, safe, prosperous and self‐reliant communities, and thriving and productive 

ecosystems

CLIMATE CHANGE• Increasing temperatures• Changing rainfall patterns• Sea level rise• Extreme weather events

IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY

• Ecosystems (River Basins, Coastal & Marine, Biodiversity)

• Food security• Water resources• Human health• Infrastructure• Energy• Human society  

ADAPTATION• Enhanced Vulnerability and Adaptation 

Assessments• Integrated Ecosystem‐Based Management• Climate‐Responsive Agriculture

• Water Governance &Management• Climate‐Responsive Health Sector• Disaster Risk Reduction &Management• Climate‐proofing of Infrastructure

MITIGATION• Energy Efficiency & Conservation• Renewable Energy• Environmentally‐Sustainable 

Transport• Sustainable Infrastructure• National REDD+ Strategy• Waste Management

CLIMATE PROCESS DRIVERS

• Energy• Transport• Land Use Change & Forestry• Agriculture  • Waste

Capacity Development

Knowledge Management

Research and DevelopmentTechnology Transfer

Financing Policy, Planning  andMainstreaming 

CROSS‐CUTTING STRATEGIES

National Framework Strategy  on Climate Change

Multi‐stakeholderPartnerships

MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

IEC andAdvocacy

GenderMainstreaming

Valuation 

NDRRM FRAMEWORK

RISK FACTORS

HazardsExposures

VulnerabilitiesCapacities

MainstreamingDRR and CCA in

Planning andImplementation

Prevention & Mitigation Preparedness Rehabilitation & Recovery Response

Safer, adaptive and resilient Filipino

communities toward sustainable

development

The National DRRM Framework is a conceptual paradigm on how the “whole of society” can work towards‘Safer, adaptive and disaster‐resilient Filipino communities towards sustainable development’It ensures DRRM process to be comprehensive and integrated; all‐hazards coverage; involve all sectors; andhave maximum impact on communities. It emphasizes that resources invested in disaster prevention,mitigation, preparedness and climate change adaptation will be more effective towards attaining the abovestated vision

How do we 

localize climate action?

Establish the Ecotowns in Key 

Biodiversity Areas (sensitive forest, coastal and marine ecosystems, small islands, food baskets)

Key DirectionsLGUs located within Ecotowns to

be areas of priorities for green growth investment and payment for ecological services (PES)

Comprehensive National Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment & Climate Risk Analysis

The whole National Budget as Climate Change Adaptation Budget

National Natural Resource Accounting (Total Economic Valuation)

CCT+CCA with protection of natural resources as the condition

Climate Financing for Adaptation

Source:Climate Change Commission

Enhancement of Carbon Stocks

Water SecurityFood Security

Enhancement of Genetic Resources

Renewable Energy from:

Hydro

Solar

& Wind

Green Industries and Eco‐tourism

Hydro Meteorological station as Early Warning System

Source: Climate Change Commission

Enabling Climate Change Resilient Communities and Local Economy:Ecotown Framework (Ecosystem Based Management)

NCCAP anchors on the implementation of the plan at the local level on building ecologically sound stable and economically resilient towns or eco‐towns. An eco‐town is a planning unit composed of municipalities or a group of municipalities located within and around boundaries of critical key biodiversity areas, which are at high risk to climate change. Eco towns will be built around protected areas and key biodiversity areas, using ecosystem based approach that will scale up best practice

Local Climate Change Action Plan

LGUs as frontlineagencies Barangays to be directly

involved with LGUs in prioritizing CCA and DRR issues

CCA and DRR to become a

regular function of municipal and city LGUs

Source:Climate Change Commission

Major CC/DRR/M Strategies in the 2011‐2016 PDP

Strengthening institutional capacities of national and local governments for CCA and DRR

Improving adaptive capacities of communities to the impact of climate change

Building resilience of the natural ecosystems

Promotion of environment friendly technologies for industry and transportation  sectors

Promotion of clean and renewable energy

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the 2011‐2016 Public Investment Program

SectorCost 

(US$ billion)

# of 

Projects

%

ShareTypology of activities

Agriculture & Agrarian Reform

0.06 25 <1

• formulation/enhancement of AFM plans• promotion of technologies for CC inagriculture 

• capacity building including IEC on CC

ENR 1.32 21 17.75

• formulation/enhancement of ENR framework plan;

• integration of CC technologies in watershed management/forestry, biodiversity conservation, solid waste management, andsewerage system activities; and 

• capacity building including IEC on CC

CCA  and DRR/M (including flood control)

3.30 91 45

• formulation/enhancement of  local  land use plans;

• installation of early warning system, forecasting/modeling device, hydro‐meteorological equipment; and 

• capacity building including IEC• construction of dams

Energy and Power 2.74 32 37 • promotion of Renewable Energy

Total 7.42 169 100

Lessons Learned after Super Typhoon Haiyan

Evacuation worked well where it took place – Evacuation away from low‐lying coastalareas saved lives but Typhoon Hiayan/Yolanda also showed the need for strong, fortifiedcommunity shelters to which people could evacuate.

(As documented http://www.unisdr.org/archive/35524).

Need to improve risk communication to promote better understanding of this threat.

Communications are a weak link – need to invest in alternative failsafe systems (e.g. radio, with links to local authorities in primary cities and towns) and backup power systems.

Public not planning for worst case scenarios – more attention need on scenario planning for extreme scenarios

Worst case scenarios will overwhelm local capacities – need mutual aid plans to guide external assistance through twinning relationships and other partnerships

Weak housing stock contributed to debris and damage – need safer designs that feature a fortified core (i.e. safe room) for housing and shelters. Designs need to be fit‐for‐purpose in terms of providing and protecting shelter.

There are still other worse case scenarios out there – Typhoon Haiyan / Yolanda will likely serve as a new benchmark for planning, but we need to do a better job of risk identification and scenario planning.

Not all risks can be eliminated – need to strengthen planning for how to handle residual risk (e.g. through evacuation, insurance, etc.)

Cannot rely on external help in the first days after a catastrophic disaster – families and communities need to do own preparedness planning for this initial period, including maintaining supplies for 5‐7 days in waterproof bags.

Source:Prepare Center.org