Presentation for GHX on Cost to Serve

144
Where are we on the Journey? A Closer Look at Healthcare Providers

description

Discussion on the evolution of cost to serve in Healthcare and the impact on value analysis

Transcript of Presentation for GHX on Cost to Serve

Page 1: Presentation for GHX on Cost to Serve

Where are we on the Journey?A Closer Look at Healthcare

Providers

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Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering independent, actionable and objective advice for supply chain leaders. A company dedicated to research, turn to us when you want the latest insights on supply chain trends, technologies to know and metrics that matter.

About Us

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Healthcare Value Chain Financial Metrics

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Components of Cash to Cash

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Supply Chain Organization:Three-Quarters Have a Formal Supply Chain Organization

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Supply Chain Organization:7 Functions Report Through It on Average;Reports Primarily to Chief Financial Officer

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Supply Chain Organization:Purchasing is Primarily Done Corporate-Wide

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Hospitals: Measuring Value

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Hospitals: Value Analysis

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Value Analysis Group: Supply Chain is Primary Leader;

Changing/Adding Products are Most Common Decisions

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Value Analysis Program

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Focus: Negotiating Lower Prices

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Current State

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SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = CHANGE

SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN = CONFUSION

SHARED VISION

+ INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = ANXIETY

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + LEADERSHIP =FALSE

STARTS

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = FRUSTRATION

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP =GRADUAL CHANGE

Source: J.P. Kotter

Collaboration: The Right Stuff

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Applying the Supply Chain Index to Healthcare

A formulaic representation of how companies are trading off growth, profitability, cycle and

complexity performance on selected supply chain financial

metrics against market valuation.

#sciwebinar

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Value Chain

Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC

Metrics That Matter by Industry

Medical Care Industry Medical Distribution Pharmaceutical Major

Free Cash Flow Ratio Operating Margin Free Cash Flow Ratio

Working Capital Ratio Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital

Operating Margin Free Cash Flow Ratio Altman Z

SG&A to COGS Ratio Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio

YoY Revenue Growth Return on Net AssetsDays of Payables

Outstanding

Current Ratio DPO/DSO Ratio

Days of Sales Outstanding Current Ratio

Days of Inventory Days of Inventory

Days of Payables Outstanding

0.73 0.84 78

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• Redesign for value• Focus on outcomes• Management of end-to-end processes

Summary

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Our Focus

2-DAY PUBLIC TRAINING

Princeton – June 24-25Minneapolis – August 8-9

$1500

GLOBAL SUMMIT

PODCASTS

www.supplychaininsights.com

#sciwebinar

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PAST SUPPLY CHAIN INDEX WEBINARS:

AVAILABLE ON DEMAND• From September 24, 2012:

The Supply Chain Index, 20 Years in the Making: A Focus on Process Industries

• From October 26, 2012: The Supply Chain Index, 20 Years in the Making: A Focus on Discrete Industries

Webinars

www.supplychaininsights.com/upcoming-webinars

#sciwebinar

UPCOMING WEBINARS• May 23 rd: Supply Chain Index, Update, Part II

• June 13th: Sales and Operations Planning: State of the Union

• July 11th: Big Data Supply Chains and the Future of Analytics

• August 15th: State of Supply Chain Talent: Missing Link in the Supply Chain

• August 29th: Digital Manufacturing

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In Search of Supply Chain Excellence

Lora Cecere of Supply Chain Insights

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Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering independent, actionable and objective advice for supply chain leaders. A company dedicated to research, turn to us when you want the latest insights on supply chain trends, technologies to know and metrics that matter.

About Us

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18 Reports in 2012

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Over 30 Reports Planned for 2013

#sciwebinar

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This is the new bible for all supply chain executives. It provides an insider’s perspective that will prove incredibly valuable to even the most grizzled supply chain veteran. This is the next must-have business book. 

--Bruce Richardson, Chief Enterprise Strategist, Salesforce.com

 

Today, the worlds of social business and supply chain management have many degrees of separation. I enjoyed working with Lora to understand what the future transformation of digital marketing to digital business could look like. 

--Jeremiah Owyang, Research Director, Altimeter 

Second Printing of Bricks Matter: 14 Five-Star Reviews on Amazon

Book can be ordered from Amazon.com in Hardcopy or Digital Format

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BRICKSRight Use of Assets

Expansion into BRIC Countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

Supply Chain Process Knowledge

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In Search of Supply Chain Excellence

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Current State

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The Supply Chain Pioneers

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Source: Supply Chain Insights, Corporate Annual Reports 2000-2011

Inventory Performance

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consumer Packaged Goods

59 57 62 64 67 67 68 70 70 64 64 67

Chemical

71.5 71.9 78.2 75.1 62 70.3 68.1 64.3 64.3 78.6 72.9 72.8

Pharma

122.236691097

869

133.699100562

175

190.147616165

968

170.986522478

989

184.342617399

859

175.550260476

877

167.799951139

247

149.815153981

283

154.915781882

591

198.663134119

976

154.313480863

244

131.819794240

294

High Tech

93.1 57.6 46.5 48.5 35.9 37.3 43.8 36.8 34.6 41.3 34.8 30.4

Average

86.4591727744

674

80.0497751405

437

94.2119040414

919

89.6466306197

472

87.3106543499

647

87.5375651192

192

86.9249877848

117

80.2287884953

207

80.9539454706

477

95.6407835299

941

81.5033702158

11

75.5049485600

736

25.0

75.0

125.0

175.0

225.0

Da

ys

o

f In

ve

nto

ry

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Perform better than peer group

Improve year-over-year results

Alignment in metrics

Delivery of performance against the business strategy

Consistency in results

Be a leader in managing trade-offs

What Is Supply Chain Excellence?

#sciwebinar

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Evolving Practices

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A Supply Chain

is a Complex System

with Complex Processes

with Increasing Complexity

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The Effective Frontier

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Trying to Reach Balance

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Useful Ratios

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Industry Averages

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Chemical Industry Performance

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Consumer Packaged Goods Industry Performance

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Colgate-Palmolive Company vs Unilever N.V.

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2000-2011)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE

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Pharmaceutical Industry Historical Performance

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE

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Healthcare Value Chain: Financial Metrics

#sciwebinar

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Healthcare Value Chain Cash-to-Cash Cycle

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Food Industry Historical Performance

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)SUMMARY SLIDE

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Five Year Comparison

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Royal Dutch Shell

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Corporate Summary

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Metrics Included for Comparison

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Metric Equations

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2000-2003)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2004-2007)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2008-2011)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2012)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Operating Margin (2000-2012) SUMMARY SLIDE

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-2003)

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2004-2007)

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2008-2011)

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2012)

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Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-2012) SUMMARY SLIDE

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle Components (2000-2003)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle Components (2004-2007)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle Components (2008-2011)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle Components (2012)

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle (2000-2012)

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Publishing Two eBooks in 2013 on Supply Chain Metrics That Matter

– Consumer Value Networks– Industrial Value Networks

2013 Publications

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Introducing the Supply Chain Index

A formulaic representation of how companies are trading off growth, profitability, cycle and

complexity performance on selected supply chain financial

metrics against market valuation.

#sciwebinar

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1. To better understand which supply chain metrics matter to corporate balance sheet performance in public markets. We want to help leaders better align supply chain and financial performance.

2. To create an objective system for evaluating and ranking supply chains by industry peer group.

3. To connect financial performance with supply chain excellence as measured through quantitative surveys in an effort to better identify and define best practices across industry groups.

Why Did We Do This?

#sciwebinar

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• What it is: A way to understand the impact of companies’ supply chain (relative to peers within an industry sector) to market capitalization based a set of preselected supply chain ratio metrics.

• What it is NOT: A way to evaluate overall company performance or compare the model results to actual market capitalization.

What It Is. What It Is Not.

#sciwebinar

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Step 1: Located data sources

Step 2: Selected core supply chain ratios from over 50 financial metrics

Step 3: Identified meaningful metrics per industry using regression analysis among selected ratios

Step 4: Constructed industry equation based on correlation of industry metrics to market capitalization values

Step 5: Determined company rankings within industry by applying 2012 company results to industry equation

Step 6: Analysis of peer group companies over the last decade

Step 7: Correlations to supply chain practices, technologies and organizational design

Supply Chain Index Methodology

#sciwebinar

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– Market capitalization data of public companies (Ycharts.com)

– Industry peer groups defined by Morningstar Sector (36)

– Financial ratios built from balance sheet and income statement data collected from OneSource

– Analysis of quarterly data using R (frequency 2006Q1 to 2012Q4)

Step 1: Located Data Sources

#sciwebinar

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Step 2: Selected 14 Core Supply Chain Ratios to Study

Financial Metrics

Growth Profitability Cycle ComplexityCommon Shares Cash Cash-to-Cash Cycle Altman Z

Employee Growth Cash Change in Period Days of Finished Goods Capital Turnover

Employees Cash on Hand Days of Inventory Current Ratio

Market Capitalization Cash Ratio TTM Days of Payables Outstanding Quick Ratio

R&D Margin Cash Ratio Quarter Days of Raw Materials Return on Assets

R&D Ratio Cash Ratio Year Days of Sales Outstanding Return on Equity

R&D to COGS Ratio Cost of Goods Sold Days of Work in Progress Return on Invested Capital

Revenue EBITDA DPO/DSO Return on Net Assets

Revenue Growth Free Cash Flow Ratio Finished Goods Inventory Revenue per Employee

Revenue Growth TTM Gross Margin Inventory Working Capital Ratio

Revenue TTM Gross Profit Inventory Turns

SG&A Margin Net Profit Margin Receivables Turns

SG&A Ratio Operating Cash Flow Ratio Raw Materials Inventory

SG&A to COGS Ratio Operating Margin Work in Progress Inventory

OPEX Ratio

Pretax Margin

Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC

#sciwebinar

Selected Ratios

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Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics

#sciwebinar

Market Capitalization vs. Revenue Growth

Insight: For example, growth did not correlate for chemical companies.

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Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics

Metrics That Matter by Industry

Mass Retail IndustryConsumer Packaged

Goods IndustryChemical Industry

Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin

Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory

DPO/DSODays of Payables

OutstandingDays of Payables

Outstanding

Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets

Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio

Free Cash Flow Ratio

SG&A to COGS Ratio

0.89 0.68

#sciwebinar

Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC

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Step 4: Mass Retail Equation

#sciwebinar

Ln(market cap) = 10.41 + 52.67(OM) -34.72(WC) - 16.02(ROIC) – 0.09(DPODSO) + 0.02(DOI)

NOTE: Full equation is Ln(market capitalization) = 10.40934 + 52.66784(operating margin) -34.7248(working capital ratio) – 16.0211(return on invested capital) – 0.09183(dpo/dso) + 0.017478(days of inventory). We utilized adjusted which accounts for the occurrence of large p values. Outlier values were defined and excluded as those 5 times larger than IQR.

Correlation Strength

Mass Retail Industry Equation

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Step 5: Determined Rankings by IndustryMass Retail Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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Top Ranked Mass Retail Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics

#sciwebinar

Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC

Metrics That Matter by Industry

Mass Retail IndustryConsumer Packaged

Goods IndustryChemical Industry

Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin

Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory

DPO/DSODays of Payables

OutstandingDays of Payables

Outstanding

Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets

Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio

Free Cash Flow Ratio

SG&A to COGS Ratio

0.89 0.68

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Step 4: Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Equation

#sciwebinar

Ln(market cap) = 3.37 + 2.11(OM) + 1.62(FCF) – 1.29(ROIC) – 1.17ln(CR) + 0.25(SGAC) + 0.02(DPO) – 0.01(DOI)

NOTE: Full equation is Ln(market capitalization) = 3.368152 + 2.107516(operating margin) + 1.624277(free cash flow ratio) – 1.2891(return on invested capital) – 1.16775*ln(current ratio) + 0.2455(sga to cogs ratio) + 0.016078(days of payables outstanding) – 0.00655(days of inventory). We utilized adjusted which accounts for the occurrence of large p values. Outlier values were defined and excluded as those 5 times larger than IQR.

Correlation Strength

CPG Industry Equation

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Step 5: Determined Rankings by IndustryCPG Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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Top Ranked CPG Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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Step 3: Identified Industry Metrics

#sciwebinar

Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC

Metrics That Matter by Industry

Mass Retail IndustryConsumer Packaged

Goods IndustryChemical Industry

Operating Margin Operating Margin Operating Margin

Days of Inventory Days of Inventory Days of Inventory

DPO/DSODays of Payables

OutstandingDays of Payables

Outstanding

Return on Invested Capital Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets

Working Capital Ratio Current Ratio

Free Cash Flow Ratio

SG&A to COGS Ratio

0.89 0.68

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Step 4: Chemical Industry Equation

#sciwebinar

Ln(market cap) = 7.85(OM) – 4.84(ROA) + 1.81ln(DPO) + 0.01(DOI)

Correlation Strength

NOTE: Full equation is Ln(market capitalization) = 7.850179(operating margin) – 4.83507(return on assets) + 1.806959* ln(days of payables outstanding) + 0.008524(days of inventory). We utilized adjusted which accounts for the occurrence of large p values. Outliers values were defined and excluded as those 3 times larger than IQR.

Chemical Industry Equation

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Step 5: Determined Rankings by IndustryChemical Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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Top Ranked Chemical Industry (2012)

#sciwebinar

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In ProgressFood Industry

#sciwebinar

Ln(market cap) = 5.57 +15.56(OM) – 7.50(ROIC) – 4.13(ROA) + 2.74(RONA) + 0.61(Z) + 0.04(DPO) – 0.04(DSO)

Correlation Strength

NOTE: Full equation is Ln(market capitalization) = 5.567785 + 15.56315(operating margin) -7.49664 (return on invested capital) – 4.12637(return on assets) + 2.743363(return on net assets) + 0.605805(altman z) + 0.040756(days of payables outstanding) – 0.03914(days of sales outstanding). We utilized adjusted which accounts for the occurrence of large p values. Outliers values were defined and excluded as those 5 times larger than IQR.

Food Industry Equation

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Value Chain Relationships

Retail(Mass

Merchant)CPG Chemical

Equations:Ln(market cap) =

10.41 + 52.67(OM) -34.72(WC)

- 16.02(ROIC) -0.09(DPODSO)

+ 0.02(DOI)

3.37+ 2.11(OM) + 1.62(FCF) - 1.29(ROIC) - 1.17ln(CR) + 0.25(SGAC) + 0.02(DPO) – 0.01(DOI)

7.85(OM) - 4.84(ROA) + 1.81ln(DPO)

+ 0.01(DOI)

True collaboration only happens when there is a sustaining win-win value proposition.

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Future Evolution

Align:Market Driven

Building Horizontal Process Connectors

ContinuousTesting

LearningImprovingIn Market

OrchestrateDemand and Supply

ResilientReliable

Adapt: Demand Driven

EfficientSense

Demandand Supply

Shape Demand andSupply based

on Market

Absorb DemandVolatility

Absorb Supply Volatility

Right Product

Right Place

Right Time

Right Cost

Cost

Procure to pay/order to

cash

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A network that senses demand with minimal latency to drive a near-real time response for

demand shaping and demand translation.

What Is a Demand-driven Value Network?

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Rising Price of a Barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

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Commodity Price Increases and Volatility

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An adaptive network focused on a value-based outcome that senses and translates

market changes (buy and sell-side markets) bi-directionally with near-real time data latency to align sell, deliver, make and

sourcing operations.

What Is a Market-driven Value Network?

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E2E Order Delivery kaizen team was able to quantify the current order processing

inefficiencies

04/08/2023

12

32

174

Process Steps Valued by the Cus-tomer

Necessary process steps but not value-producing for our business

Manual intervention steps now part of "normal"

Zero (0) orders flow through the e2e process without being manually handled! Massive value creation potential for eliminating waste, inefficiency and re-focusing

resources on activities that actually deliver value

Breakdown of E2E Order to Delivery Process

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% of time actually spent completing process stepsTime spent in Queues and "Do Loops"

Vast majority of time is spent on activities that do not produce

enterprise value

>60% of order processing is spent waiting or in inefficient manual intervention

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CPG Food+bev Electronics Semi-conductor

Durables Process Discrete

26%19% 21%

30%26%

12% 13%

17%26% 19%

20%

18%

11%

24%

17% 14%13%

16%

18%

14%

18%

17%

9%13%

12%

9%

12%

17%

10%

8%17%

5%13%

14%

11%

10%

15%

11% 9% 12%

18%

9%

10%5% 4%

11%

8%6% 7%

Other

Fax

Phone

Internet orders

Customer portal

VMI/collab.

B2b (w/manual)

B2b (no manual)

Order Entry Process

CONSUMER PRODSCONSUMER PRODS HIGH-TECHHIGH-TECH INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL

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Market-Driven Value Networks Characteristics

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Demand-shaping Levers

New Product Launch

Marketing

Sales Incentives

Trade Promotions

Distributor Incentives

Assortment

Price

Run-out of obsolescence or mark-down strategies

Orchestration Levers

Market-driven Orchestration Levers

Price to Price Orchestration

Alternate Bill of Materials

Alternate Sourcing

Change in Assortment

Orchestration of Product Mix (Incent products with less commodity variability)

Changes in Demand Shaping Strategies

Commodity Hedging

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Corporate Sustainability

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Current State

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Corporate Sustainability Alignment

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Corporate Sustainability Alignment

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Who Does it Best?

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Building Value Networks

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Years 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2012

RETAIL AVERAGE

17.05% 42.46% 12.89% 8.76% 5.15%

CPG AVERAGE 2.12% 0.84% 3.91% 7.26% 2.32%

FOOD CPG AVERAGE

3.68% 2.97% 8.13% 2.59% 4.27%

BEVERAGE CPG AVERAGE

12.87% 2.00% 9.59% 11.53% 4.92%

Year-over-Year Growth

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1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

eCommerce

NaN NaN 343.09821573893

2

455.82322184244

8

549.35711669921

7

758.40384928385

3

848.30227661132

6

1016.2521057128

9

998.48733520507

7

1073.2823486328

1

NaN

Grocery

197.66727663333

3

182.42270665714

3

424.51644165604

2

478.66342206434

8

475.07786840959

519.72557456152

9

612.0607266696

610.86592366145

2

572.42064453125

518.07959238688

3

503.89105224609

3

Mass

111.531258

6

143.587382

4

252.77049342572

2

348.13922174952

2

378.84717362577

3

616.60869811562

9

486.97209019814

8

474.46172598636

5

533.31497862844

8

463.61525573730

5

348.44249979655

Specialty

NaN NaN 295.67612169279

384.31348812580

2

413.83267235756

458.27304815738

8

478.62063006965

5

527.32440307617

3

534.01690254211

5

282.31685002644

9

312.05143394470

2

100

300

500

700

900

1100

Revenue per Employee

Re

ve

nu

e p

er E

mp

loye

e (

K$

)

Retail: Revenue Per Employee

Source: Supply Chain Index Analysis from Annual Reports 1990-2012Mean values utilized excluding outlier data

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Revenue Per Store

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A Look at History

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Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)SUMMARY SLIDE

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Value Chain Relationships

Retail(Mass

Merchant)CPG Chemical

Equations:Ln(market cap) =

10.41 + 52.67(OM) -34.72(WC)

- 16.02(ROIC) -0.09(DPODSO)

+ 0.02(DOI)

3.37+ 2.11(OM) + 1.62(FCF) - 1.29(ROIC) - 1.17ln(CR) + 0.25(SGAC) + 0.02(DPO) – 0.01(DOI)

7.85(OM) - 4.84(ROA) + 1.81ln(DPO)

+ 0.01(DOI)

True collaboration only happens when there is a sustaining win-win value proposition.

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SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = CHANGE

SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN = CONFUSION

SHARED VISION

+ INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = ANXIETY

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + LEADERSHIP =FALSE

STARTS

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + INCENTIVE + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = FRUSTRATION

SHARED VISION

+ SKILLS + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP =GRADUAL CHANGE

Source: J.P. Kotter

Collaboration: The Right Stuff

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Demand Signal

Accurate Weekly

Forecasting is ...

Delay from Purchase to

Signal

Data Latency and Distortion Across the Network

Red Represents Emerging Economies with Distributor Trade

Retailer DC

Easy

3-10 Days

7-20 Days

Manufacturer DC

Difficult

10-20 Days

20-45 Days

Suppliers

Almost Impossible

20-50 Days

45-80 Days

Store

Trivial

Instant

Variable

Store

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We have not Fixed Replenishment Processes….

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Supply Reliability

Manufacturer mentioned by name

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Current State: Usage of Downstream Data

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Bar codes were first used at Marsh Supermarket in 1968

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Barriers

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Data Used

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Quality of Data

Point of Sale Warehouse Withdrawal

Warehouse Perpetual In-

ventory Changes

Store Forecasts In-store Perpetual Inventory Changes

Company Forecasts

Loyalty-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%100%

72%

62% 59%52%

41% 38%

72%

55%

41%

14% 17%10% 7%

-28%

-17%-21%

-45%

-34%-31% -31%

Downstream Data Received from Retailers vs. Clean

Receives Clean (Rated 5-7 on 7-Pt Scale) Gap (Clean - Receive)

____________________________________________________________Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC, Downstream Data (Aug-Oct 2012)Base: Manufacturers using/trying to use downstream data (n=29 – CAUTION: Small base size)Q17. What types of downstream data does your company get from retailers? Please select all that apply.Q19. For each type of data that you get, please rate how clean it is, on average, considering all retailers from which you get it. SCALE: 1=Extremely dirty, 7=Extremely clean

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Percent of Channel

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Days of Inventory (DOI): Companies with and without Demand Sensing (CPG, Food, Heath & Beauty Industries)

Evolution

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

6465

6663

66

65 65

6360

61

Source: Company Financials

Day

s In

vent

ory

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Risk Management

high

low

highlow

Imp

act

Probability of Adverse Event

catastrophiccatastrophic

periodic incidentperiodic incident

strategic strategic

daily surprisedaily surprise

Probability * Impact = Value at Risk

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Risk Assessment: A Value-Driven Approach

high

low

highlow

safety, quality

Imp

act

Probability of Adverse Event

catastrophiccatastrophic

periodic incidentperiodic incident

strategic strategic

daily surprisedaily surprise

mark to market

portfolio mgmt risksustainability

product mix shift

commodity costs

margin pressure

private labeldeflation

foreign exchange

* AMR Research – Top CP Risk Mentions last quarterly earnings report

innovation stallshealth & wellness

nutrition & labeling

consumer trends

failed cost reduction programs

failed productivity

n. american economy

de-stocking

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Value Network Strategy

Supply chain strategy

Business StrategyWhat are the right things to do to increase company value?

Value-network Supply Chain StrategyWhat are the right ways to support the business strategy?

What are the right trade-offs between value drivers for each value network?

Right productplatforms

Design the supply

response

Build organizational systems and

manage talent

Align supply relationships

Align demandrelationships

Effective Supply Networks

Execution of buy-side strategies

Continuous Improvement

Capabilities RequiredSupply Chain

Network Design

Design Networks

Innovation Methodologies

Demand Networks

Joint Value Creation Strategies

Business ProcessHow do I do the right things right?

Source: Supply Chain Insights, LLC

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Supply Chain 2020 and the Path Forward

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The Supply Chain of the Future

World Population

Source: “The World at Six Billion” United Nations, 2004; The World UN Population Assessment 2006; “Unsustainable World,” 04/15/08, BBC

North America

2007 2020339M 342M

Europe

2007 2020731M 722M

Asia

2007 20204.0B 4.6B

L America

2007 2020572M 660M

Africa

2007 2020965M 1.3B

Oceania

2007 202034M 40M

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Outside-In

Value-Based OutcomesDelivered by Value Networks

Supply Chain Excellence =

Supply Chain 2020 Tipping Points

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Talent Shortage

Compliance on Safe & Secure

Orchestration

Big Data Supply Chains

Internet of Things

Learning Supply Chains

Digital Manufacturing

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Create Your Own Future

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Rethinking Analytics

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Definition

Challenges:• Transactional• Time phased data

Structured Data

• Social• Channel• Customer Service• Warranty

• Temperature• RFID• QR codes• GPS

• Mapping and GPS• Video• Voice• Digital Images

Unstructured Data

SensorData

NewDataTypes

Volume

Velocity

Variability

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Analytics Evolution

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Listening Post Strategy

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• Outside-in• End-to-End Orchestration• Supply Chain Matters

Path Forward

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Questions?

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• May 17th: How Do We Heal the Healthcare Value Chain, Part II• June 13th: Sales and Operations Planning: State of the Union• July 11th: Big Data Supply Chains and the Future of Analytics• August 15th: State of Supply Chain Talent. Missing Link in the

Supply Chain• August 29th: Digital Manufacturing

Upcoming Webinars

Each webinar is based on new and relevant research and will feature two-three industry leaders

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Join Us!

www.scicommunity.com

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Supply Chain Insights Community

#sciwebinar

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Who Is Lora?

• Founder of Supply Chain Insights

• Partner at Altimeter Group (leader in open research)

• 7 years of Management Experience leading Analyst Teams at Gartner and AMR Research

• 8 years Experience in Marketing and Selling Supply Chain Software at Descartes Systems Group and Manugistics (now JDA)

• 15 Years Leading teams in Manufacturing and Distribution operations for Clorox, Kraft/General Foods, Nestle/Dreyers Grand Ice Cream and Procter & Gamble.

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Where Do You Find Lora?

Contact Information: [email protected]

Blog: www.supplychainshaman.com (4000 pageviews/month)

Twitter: lcecere 3800 followers. Rated as the top rated supply chain social network user.

LinkedIn: linkedin.com/pub/lora-cecere/0/196/573 (3560 in the network)