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The European Commission’s

science and knowledge service

Joint Research Centre

'Bottleneck' materials for the

deployment of low-carbon

technologies in the EU

Dr. Vangelis Tzimas

Deputy Head of Unit

Knowledge for the Energy Union

23 February 2017, Brussels

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The EU Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) Critical raw materials list

Securing reliable and undistorted access of certain raw materials is

of growing concern within the EU and across the globe

20 'critical raw materials' for the whole EU economy (2014 analysis)

CRITICALITY

MATRIX - 2014

Supply

ris

k

Economic importance

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1 BEV battery:

9.5 kg Li

5.6 kg Co

29 kg Graphite

1 PHEV battery:

3 kg Li

2 kg Co

10 kg Graphite

4

EU resilience to materials supply a Low Carbon Technology deployment perspective

Bottlenecks

• Increasing material demand

• Competition - sectors and countries

• Concentration of supply

• Geopolitical risk

• Environmental constraints

• Geological/production constraints

• Import dependency (raw materials)

• Manufacturing capacity dependency

Mitigation measures

Access to new resources:

- EU production

- Trade agreements

EU manufacturing capacities

Recycling

Substitution

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New JRC study on bottleneck materials for Wind, PV and EVs: 2030 timeframe

15 materials screened …

Batteries Lithium Cobalt Graphite

Electric motors Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium

Turbines Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium

Blades Composites (CFC) (criticality expected on the manufacturing side rather than raw material side)

CIGS

PV Modules Silicon Silver

Copper Indium Gallium Selenium

Cadmium Tellurium

CdTe

c-Si

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EU resilience for wind technology - 2015

Downstream

(processed materials/components/assembly)

Upstream (mining/refining)

Nd, Pr, Dy

CFC

CFC

Nd, Pr, Dy

Wind Wind

7

Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly)

Upstream (mining/refining)

Ag

Si

Si

Ag

Photovoltaic Photovoltaic

In

In

EU resilience for PV technology - 2015

8

Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly)

Upstream (mining/refining)

Co graphite

Electric vehicles Electric vehicles

Li

Li, Co Nd, Pr, Dy graphite

Nd, Pr, Dy

EU resilience for EV technology - 2015

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JRC methodology

EU resilience assessment

Upstream dimension

(D1)

Downstream dimension

(D2)

D1.1 Material demand

D1.2 Investment potential

D1.3 Stability of supply

D1.4 Reserves depletion

D1.5 Import reliance

D1.6 Supply adequacy

D1.7 Recycling

D1.8 Substitution

D2.1 Supply chain dependency

D2.2 Purchasing potential

D2.3 Material cost impact

Materials supply chain

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Upstream Dimension (D1)

Dow

nstr

eam

Dim

ensio

n (D

2)

• Boosting EU raw

materials production

• Recycling

• Substitution

Resilience chart

Mitigation measures

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Wind technology

current situation

• Today the EU is highly vulnerable to supply chain bottlenecks for rare earths used for magnets in wind turbines

• High resilience for carbon fibre composites (CFCs)

Nd Dy Pr

CFC

Wind technology - current situation

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Wind technology 2030

Nd Dy Pr

CFC

Nd Dy Pr

CFC

Recycling X

Substitution X

EU RM production X

Recycling

Substitution

EU RM production

Wind technology - 2030

13

PV technology

current situation

No strong concerns for PV materials!

In

Ag Si

Cu

Ga

Se

Cd

Te

PV technology - current situation

14

PV technology 2030

In

Ag Si

Cu

Ga

Se

Cd

Te In Ag

Si

Cu

Ga

Se

Cd

Te

Recycling X

Substitution X

EU RM production X

Recycling

Substitution

EU RM production

PV technology - 2030

15

Electric Vehicles

516 2528 831

13313

24941

65226

120416

21450

39599

Cobalt Graphite Lithium Cobalt Graphite Lithium

2015 2030

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

EU

de

ma

nd

(to

nn

es)

Values 2015

ERERT* scenario 2030

Tech 3** scenario 2030

Materials demand in LIB for electric vehicles

* ERERT - European Roadmap Electrification of Road Transport

** Tech 3 - EC project: "EU transport GHG: Routes to 2050"

BEV PHEV

60000 90000

1.5 mil. 2.3 mil.

2.4 mil. 5.6 mil.

EV market and materials demand

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Lithium Global Lithium production

17

Cobalt Global Cobalt production (refined)

18

Global Graphite production

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Supply chain dependency for EVs

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• The demand for Li, Co and graphite for EV may increase 25 times even under a conservative deployment scenario. Under more optimistic deployment scenario the demand might rise up to 45 times!

• The EU is heavily dependent on import of all three raw materials.

• The EU is strongly dependent on manufacturing capacities downstream: some limited electrode materials production and no cell manufacturing in the EU.

Battery materials: Key messages

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EV technology

current situation

• Rare earths in magnets for electric traction motors and graphite for rechargeable batteries are at risk of supply

• Lithium and cobalt: borderline

Nd Dy Pr

C

Li Co

EV technology - current situation

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EV technology 2030

Li, Co, C

Nd Dy Pr Nd Dy Pr

Li Co

C

Recycling X

Substitution X

EU RM production X

Recycling

Substitution

EU RM production

EV technology - 2030

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The EU is vulnerable to supply bottlenecks of several key materials

needed in wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicle technologies.

Unless mitigation measures are taken, the EU resilience to potential

supply issues will deteriorate by 2030.

Conclusions

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Thank you! Thank you!