José Daniel Anido RivasAt the

Centro de Investigaciones Agroalimentarias (CIAAL), Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela. e-mail: anidoriv@ula.ve; anidoriv@yahoo.com

Address: Núcleo La Liria, edificio G “Leocadio Hontoria, 2º piso, CIAAL.Mérida 5101, Venezuela

Food changes and food security:main effects of economic and tradepolicies on Venezuelan consumer,

1990-2002

1. Introduction2. Methodological Aspects3. Chronology of the Main Economic and Trade

Policies implanted in Venezuela, 1989-20024 The Effects of Policies on the Main Variables

Related to Food Security5. Conclusions6. Questions and comments

Inside …

1. Introduction• 45 years of democratic era (1958-2004)

• An increasing stage of Investment and GDP (until 1978), followed by a deep decreasing stage

Venezuela: Evolution of real per capita income, 1957-2002

20.000

22.000

24.000

26.000

28.000

30.000

32.000

34.000

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

Con

stan

t Bol

ivar

es o

f 198

4

• Adjustment requirement: the recent era

V e n e zu e la : P riv a te re a l p e r c a p ita in v e s tm e n t, 1 9 5 7 -2 0 0 0

S o urc e : Ac u erd o S o c ia l , 2 0 0 3

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

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1963

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1967

1968

1969

1970

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1972

1973

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1976

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1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

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1989

1990

1991

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1995

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1998

1999

2000

Ye a r

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

1 2 0

1 4 0

Thou

sand

s of

con

stan

t Bol

ivar

es o

f 198

4

P rivate re a l p e r c a p ita in ve s tm e n t

Methodological Aspects…• Purpose: show the impact of economic and trade policies on the

food changes in Venezuela, specially during the last threegovernments (1989-1992)

• Indicators: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variablesand food availability, consumption and security variables

• Sources: economic policies goals, macroeconomics variablesand food availability, consumption and security variables(Planning Ministries of different periods, Central Bank ofVenezuela, National Institute for Nutrition, Universidad de LosAndes, Secondary sources, own calculations)

Structural adjustments (1989-1992)

Chronology of Policies…

Carlos Andrés Pérez II* Freeing prices of goods* Goods and services opening markets* Floating exchange currency (flexible and unique)* Financial reforms * Stimulus for foreign investment* Privatization program * Less State, More Market* Agri-food sector subsidies elimination or substitution* Agricultural portfolio reduction * Fringe prices to protect agricultural domestic production

Non-orthodox and Orthodox adjustment (1994-1996)

Chronology of Policies…

Rafael Caldera II* Emergency measures to rescue the financial system * Exchange control (until April 1996)* Enrollment in the World Commercial Organization (1995)* Group of Three and other regional integration agreements* Practice of fixing minimum prices in some agriculture goods* Social programs: Strategic Food Program (PROAL) and School Food Program * The Venezuela Agenda (1996), economic equilibrium and fight against inflation:- Floating exchange rate (no more exchange control)- Freeing interest rates- Public expenditure discipline (but without forgetting social matters)- Taxes increase

The Bolivarian Revolution (1999-2000 and 2001 until present)

Chronology of Policies…

Hugo Chávez•Institutional reform: Constituent process and New national Constitution (1999-2000) to “achieve sustainable and diversified economic growth, reduce inflation and increase the employment level, through fiscal and monetary policies”•The National Economic and Social Development Plan 2001-2007 to achieve 6 goals• The "missions" (Misiones, in Spanish: Robinson, Sucre, "Barrio Adentro", Identity... )

4. Main impacts…Concerning the main variables of food availability

Venezuela: main variables of food availability

Source: MAT, BCV, INN-ULA, Own calculations

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Years

25

26

27

28

29

30

Thou

sand

s M

illio

ns (b

illion

s) o

f con

stan

t Bs.

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

2.800

3.000

Calories/people/day

Agricultural GDP Food availability for human consumption

Pérez Caldera Chávez

0

10

20

30

40

50

Food

impo

rts a

s %

of t

otal

ava

ilabi

lity

Food imports (5)

4. Main impacts…

Source: INN-ULA (Several yars; own calculations

Graph 3. Venezuela: changes on food patterns of calorie intake, 1989-2002

0

50

100

150

200cer

rt

sugars

leg

nutV

veg

fruMeats

Eggs

fishes

milks

fatA

Sti

1989-1993 1994-1998 1999-2002

4. Main impacts…

(in average percentages…)1989-93 1994-98 1999-2002

Cereals 38,4 38,3 37,0Roots and tuber dry 5,5 5,5 6,5Sugar and sweeteners 15,8 17,4 16,5Legumes 2,2 1,9 1,7Nut and oilcrop seeds 0,1 0,1 0,1Vegetables 0,6 1,0 1,3Fruits (except platain) 4,6 4,5 4,3Meats 6,4 6,6 7,5Eggs 0,8 0,9 1,0Fish and shellfishes 1,5 1,8 1,7Milk and derivatives 6,2 5,7 5,9Visible fats 17,0 15,2 15,3Spices 0,0 0,0 0,0Stimulants 0,7 1,1 1,3TOTAL FCA (Kcal) 100,0 100,0 100,0

4. Main impacts…

Indicator / year Weigth-for-Height (WfH) Weigth-for-Age (WfA) Height-for-Age (HfA)1990 16,06 24,77 31,081993 12,17 18,22 28,431994 11,44 17,87 28,651999 11,74 18,79 29,102002 12,92 18,93 28,89

Source: INN (several years)

Venezuela: Prevalence of malnutrition in child population, 1990-2002(in percent values, %)

…Decreasing figures on malnourish, but followed by an moderate growth (except in HfA)

Concerning the infant nutritional situation…

5. Main conclusions…

3. During 1989-1993 and 1994-1998, there was a strong linkbetween “food Import” and “food availabilities”. It changed inthe 1999-2002 (agri-food GDP is now very correlated)

1. Three different kinds of policies: Structural adjustment or orthodox(1989-1993): non- orthodox and orthodox measures (1994-1998) and“mixture” of policies (1999 until present) were observed

2. An strong decreasing trend in GDP, private investment, percapita real income; and increasing trend in the agri-food GDP

4. Irregular behavior in de FCA along de 1989-2002 period;however during FCA grew up in the 1989-1992; drop in 1993-1998period and trend to increase since then

5. An important decline in the infant nutritional indicators (inrelative terms); however, in absolute terms they presentedalarming values

The End

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