Preparing our Youth for an Unsparing Global Economy€¦ · U.S. Employment in Occupations at Risk...
Transcript of Preparing our Youth for an Unsparing Global Economy€¦ · U.S. Employment in Occupations at Risk...
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August 2012
James H. Johnson, Jr. William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Entrepreneurship &
Strategy
Kenan-Flagler Business School Director, Urban Investment Strategies Center
Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Preparing our Youth for an
Unsparing Global Economy
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Overview
A Climate of Uncertainty
Two Waves of Economic Globalization
Global Economic Recession & Offshoring
Question to Ponder
Key Takeaways
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9/11 Terrorist Attacks
Gulf Coast Natural Disasters
Recent U.S. Housing, Finance, & Credit Crises
Earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, & China
BP Oil Disaster
Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear Reactor Crisis in Japan
Global Economic Recession
Turbulent Times
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THE ECONOMIC
PICTURE: BY THE
NUMBERS
Jobs Loss During the Great
Recession 8.4 million
Monthly Average Job Creation
Needed to Return to Pre-
recession Employment by
2020
208,000
Average Number of Jobs
Created Over the Last Three
Months
81,000
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THE EMPLOYMENT
PICTURE CONT’D
Number of Unemployed Workers 12.7 million
Number of Long Term Unemployed 5.4 million (42.8%)
Current Unemployment Rate 8.2%
Number of Persons Involved in
Involuntary Part-time Work 8.1 million
Number of People Marginally Attached
to Labor force 2.4 million
Number of Discouraged Workers 830,000
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BACHELOR’S DEGREE HOLDERS
(UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE
JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED
Year Percent
2000 41.0
2011 53.6
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The increasing tendency for goods and services consumed
in the U.S. to be produced offshore in countries like
Mexico, India, and China.
Economic Globalization
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Concerns about First Wave
of Globalization
Joe Smith started the day early, having set his alarm clock (MADE IN JAPAN) for 6 a.m. While his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA) was perking, he shaved with his electric razor (MADE IN HONG KONG). He put on a dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA), designer jeans (MADE IN SINGAPORE) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA). After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (MADE IN INDIA), he sat down with his calculator (MADE IN MEXICO) to see how much he could spend today. After setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA) he got in his car (MADE IN JAPAN) and continued his search for a good paying AMERICAN JOB. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day, Joe decided to relax for a while. He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL) poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA), and then wondered why
he can't find a good paying job in.....AMERICA.
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White Collar Jobs Projected to
Move Offshore
PROFESSION # by 2005 # by 2010 # by 2015
Architecture 32,000 83,000 184,000
Business Operations 61,000 162,000 348,000
Computer Sciences 109,000 277,000 473,000
Law 14,000 35,000 75,000
Life Sciences 3,700 14,000 37,000
Management 37,000 118,000 288,000
Total 256,700 689,000 1,405,000
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U.S. Employment in Occupations
at Risk to Outsourcing
SECTOR Employment (2001)
Office Support 8,637,900
Business and Financial Support 2,153,480
Computer and Math Professions 2,825,870
Paralegals and Assistants 183,550
Diagnostic Support Services 168,240
Medical Transcriptions 94,090
Total in Outsourcing Risk Occupations 14,063,130
All Occupations (Total U.S. Employment) 127,980,410
% of All Occupations at Risk 11.0%
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Globalization’s Impact on
U.S. White Collar Workers
At the top of his white-collar game, Jim Brannon worried little about his job. He was six-figure successful, an educated man with a jet-setting software job in Norcross (GA). The vagaries of free trade and globalization couldn’t touch him. He was, after all, a vaunted executive at Unisys, the world-spanning information technology behemoth. It was the blue-collar Joe, Brannon believed, who’d wake up on morning and discover his factory job had gone to Mexico or China.
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Globalization’s Impact on U.S.
White Collar Workers (cont’d)
Brannon, though, experienced just such a morning in February 2002. A letter order him to clear out his desk by day’s end. Gone were the fancy office, expense account, feeling of invincibility, and once-solid belief in the righteousness of Corporate America.
Brannon, now 52, represents one of the hundreds of thousands of American white-collar workers whose jobs have disappeared the last three years. While Unisys’ desire to cut costs was partly to blame for Brannon’s unemployment, he says a major culprit was offshore outsourcing.”
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Challenges to the Nation’s
Innovation Capacity
Competitive landscape is changing
Immigrants have driven innovation in our
economy
U.S.-based firms are outsourcing innovation
Talent is cheaper offshore
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Economics of Offshore
Outsourcing
Job US Worker Offshore Worker
Architect $3,000+/month $250/month
Accountant $5,000+/month $300/month
Financial Analyst $7,000+/month $1,000/month
Chip Designer $7,000/month $1,000/month
Aerospace Engineer $6,000/month $650/month
Info-Tech Support $10,000/month $500/month
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Qualified Workers Available, per
year, and Hourly Wages, Selected
Offshore Locations
Mumbai
India
Manila
Philippines
Kuala Lumpar
Malaysia
Shanghai
China
CUSTOMER CALL CENTER
35,000-45,000
$1.50/hr
9,000-11,000
$1.47/hr
6,000-7,000
$2.19/hr
6,000-7,000
$2.50/hr
BACK-OFFICE FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING
14,000-17,000
$1.35/hr
9,000-11,000
$1.73/hr
7,000-9,000
$1.86/hr
12,000-15,000
$2.03/hr
ELECTRONIC DOCUMENT CONVERSION
111,000-140,000
70 cents - $1/hr
11,000-14,000
$1.07/hr
20,000-25,000
$1.47/hr
18,000-23,000
$1.50/hr
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Straddling Two Continents and Cultures:
Indian Call Center Workers
INDIAN NAME AMERICAN NAME
Jayanti Jessie
Madhuri Nicole
Mahesh Murphy
Randhir Randy
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Outsourcing Trends In
Health Care Industry
Administrative Services
Information Technology
Revenue Cycle Functions
Insurance Claims Processing
Medical Transcription
Virtual Practice Management
Telemarketing Activities
Fulfillment Services
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Outsourcing Trends In
Health Care Industry
Patient Care Services
Tele-radiology Services
Pre-service nursing
Intensive Care Unit Monitoring
Medical Tourism
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Medical Tourism
Cost Comparison
Type U.S. India
Hip Replacement
(partial) $18,000 $4,500
Hip Replacement (full) $39,000 $3,000
Orthopedic surgery $18,000 $4,500
Cardiac surgery $40,000 $6,500
Gall bladder surgery $60,000 $7,500
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U.S. – Based Multinationals Forging
Relationships with Foreign
Governments & Universities
COMPANY RELATIONSHIP
Hewlett Packard University of Beijing
Intel China and Germany
IBM Collaborations Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
China
Ireland
Taiwan
India
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Anticipated Impact of
White Collar Job Shifts
on American Society
In the years ahead, sizable numbers of skilled, reasonably well-educated middle-income workers in service-sector jobs long considered safe from foreign trade—accounting, law, financial and risk management, health care and information technology, to name a few—could be facing layoffs or serious wage pressure as developing nations perform increasingly sophisticated offshore work. The shift portends dramatic realignment of wealth over the next couple of generations—valued … at “hundreds of billions of dollars.”
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Question To Ponder
What skill set will our youth need in order to
thrive and prosper in the hyper-competitive
global economy of the 21st century?
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THE COMPETITIVE
TOOL KIT
Analytical Reasoning
Entrepreneurial Acumen
Contextual Intelligence
Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity
Agility and Flexibility
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Analytical Reasoning Skills
Science
Technology
Engineering
Arts
Math August 2012 34
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Entrepreneurial
Acumen
Demonstrate a willingness to take
incalculable risks and the ability to be agile,
flexible, tenacious, and decisive in
responding to unanticipated crises and
opportunities.
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Contextual
Intelligence
Develop an acute sensitivity to the social,
political, technological, economic, and
demographic drivers of change that will likely
define the future.
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Soft Skills
Hard skills will get you an
interview but you need soft
skills to get and keep a job.
WhatIS.com
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Soft Skills—Personality
Traits
Optimism
Common sense
Responsibility
A sense of humor
Integrity
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Soft Skills—Abilities
Empathy
Teamwork
Leadership
Communication
Good Manners
Negotiation
Sociability
The ability to teach
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Personal Branding is
Paramount
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Personal Branding
& Image Marketing
Creates an accurate and honest picture of the
“impression you make on others”
Explains the end result of what you do – your value
add
Promotes ‘reputational’ power
Leverages a personal website—Internet marketing
Example: KwameJackson.com
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World of Work is Changing
Work organized life in the past
Life will organize work in the future
Free agency will rule
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The Freelance Economy
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The Online Market Place
Guru.com
Elance.com
Odesk.com
Freelancer.com
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Top Freelancer Locations
United States (200,619) Australia (3,307)
India (60,212) Bangladesh (2,694)
United Kingdom (10,387) Romania (2,494)
Canada (9,133) Indonesia (2,332)
Pakistan (7,731) Russian Federation (2,223)
Philippines (5,221) Uruguay (1,847)
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Freelancer.com—Latest
Statistics
Users 2,888,444
Projects 1,251,344
USD Earned $104,636,370
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The Freelancer Economy—
Technology
Websites & Ecommerce (42,084)
Programming and Databases (47,749)
Engineering & CAD (10,463)
Networking & Telephone Systems (10,154)
ERP & CRM (2,288)
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The Freelancer Economy—
Creative Arts
Graphic Design & Multimedia (32,289)
Writing, Editing, & Translation (45,510)
Illustration & Art (11,451)
Photography & Videography (7,399)
Fashion & Interior Designs (2,746)
Broadcasting (4,806)
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The Freelancers Economy—
Business
Administrative Support (36,504)
Marketing & Communications (8,187)
Sales & Telemarketing (4,167)
Business Consulting (11,887)
Legal (2,567)
Finance & Accounting (4,657)
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DISTRIBUTION OF FREELANCE
ENTREPRENEURS
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Freelancers within 30 mile
radius of Zip: 27514
(N= 1,578)
Programming & Databases (287) Illustration & Art (50)
Writing, Editing & Translation (281) Photography & Videography (41)
Administrative Support (217) Sales & Marketing (26)
Website & Ecommerce (153) Broadcasting (25)
Graphic Design & Multimedia (148) Finance & Accounting (22)
Business Consulting (101) Legal (18)
Networking & Telephone Systems
(76)
ERP & CRM (14)
Engineering & CAD (57) Fashion & Interior Design (8)
Marketing & Communications (54)
October 2011 51
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IMPLICATIONS
Change is the only constant
Competitive intelligence gathering is
paramount
Speed
Agility
Flexibility
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IMPLICATIONS
(CONT’D)
Competitive drive
Tenacity
Persistence
Entrepreneurial spirit
Soft skills
Hard work
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