Preparing for 2015 SDSR

Paul WyattPaul Wyatt

RSMF RSMF

October 2014 October 2014

Approach

• Ultimately delivered by Cabinet Office alongside the National Security Strategy and the Comprehensive Spending Review

• Current activity is building a consistent, robust evidence base for future decisions

• Responding to criticisms of 2010 process, but operating within some constraints

• It is being shaped by events… NATO summit, Scottish Referendum, w/d from Afghanistan, General Election

Preparations: Across Whitehall

• Prime Minister’s guidance: ” We should be starting now. The NSS needs a refresh, not a complete overhaul … I would not expect a huge change in the NSS or SDSR”

• Cabinet Office-led

• Foreign Policy baseline: ‘influence-building activism’

• Homeland Security baseline

• Others starting slowly

Directive from CDS and PUS

… coordinate and lead a programme of work, under the oversight of the Defence Strategy Group (DSG), to develop by March 2015, a coherent and authoritative evidence base on the key questions and themes for the forthcoming SDSR …

…to determine the department's position and narrative ahead of the reviews, inform, support and shape cross-Government analysis, and underpin decision-making by the National Security Council and HM Treasury during the NSS, SDSR and CSR.

WS2: FORCE POSTURE & STRATEGIC WAYS

WS4: MANAGE RISK WS3: BALANCE RELATIONSHIPSWS5: EXPLOIT

OPPORTUNITIES

WS1: PRIORITIES: THREATS, INTERESTS & POLITICAL

IMPERATIVES•

ENDS

WAYS

M

E

A

N

S

WS6: FORCE STRUCTURE & ORGANISATION

WS8: ACQUISITION & INDUSTRY

WS9: EFFICIENCY & AFFORDABILITY

WS7: MANPOWER, EQUIPMENT, ACTIVITY & SUSTAINABILITY

WS10: OUTPUT: A CASE FOR DEFENCE

Preparations: Within MOD

The 2010 Context

• Financial crisis

• Afghanistan

• Unaffordable equipment programme

• The terrorist threat – Al Qaeda focussed

• Resilience at home

• “A new age of uncertainty”

Since 2010

• Making good progress with many aspects of SDSR 2010 implementation

• Largely completed Defence re-organisation as directed by Lord Levene

• Defence budget back in balance

• Good basis for the next SDSR

The Case for Change?

• Analysis of risks from 2010 has been somewhat vindicated. However… • Also significant developments and new trends which we did not foresee

• Arab Spring and its consequences• Return of Great Power rivalries

• The balance and dynamics of power continue to shift; the status-quo is being challenged from all directions with destabilising consequences

• Our traditional military/ technological lead is being eroded more quickly than anticipated and we must look for new sources of advantage

• The economic challenge has been more severe and will persist for much longer than anticipated

• National appetite for the use of force has diminished – temporarily or not• A new, much more competitive international environment is emerging. The

distinction between war and peace is being blurred leaving us in a state of ‘persistent competition’

Future Contribution of Defence

PROTECT – UNDERSTAND & SHAPE – RESPOND

Support the civil authorities to continually PROTECT the UK, Overseas Territories, and the infrastructure and networks upon which we depend for our security and prosperity

Help UNDERSTAND & SHAPE the global environment in order to deter threats, enhance UK standing and influence, exploit opportunities, reinforce global norms, and build stability and prevent conflict overseas

RESPOND to threats, events and crises; projecting power alone, or with international partners, to safeguard our people, interests and values

Key Investment Decisions for SDSR 2015

• Whole Force Concept, including personnel numbers & costs

• Successor Deterrent & delivery options

• Joint enablers – logistics and ISR

• Industrial capacity – maritime & air sectors

• 2nd QEC Carrier & associated capabilities

• JSF follow-on buy / Future Combat Air System – manned/unmanned

• Strategic ISTAR, incl. Maritime Patrol Aircraft and Sentinel

• Cyber & Space

• Defence engagement – understanding & influence (Military Tasks 1 & 5)

• R&D - emerging technologies

• Quality vs quantity (Type 26)

• National Ballistic Missile Defence

• Force protection, incl. CBRN Defence

Emerging Themes

What sort of military operations, where, with/against whom Relationship with/dependence on international institutions, key allies,

partners Role of the Armed Forces in homeland security Acquisition and industrial policy Defence exports & Prosperity Improve the ‘understand’ function Extending Defence Engagement Re-emphasising conventional deterrence Responding to ‘hybrid warfare’ Fewer big capability choices than 2010 (MPA, BMD, UCAV) Better prioritisation Innovating beyond efficiency – improving ‘military productivity’ Contributing beyond defence: ‘positivity’

Questions:

For the initiated:

• What have you seen before?

• What are we missing?

• Which mistakes do we risk repeating?

For the uninitiated:

• Is this intuitive?

• Is this compelling?