Predictive Analytics Conference - Rapid Insight · Creating a Culture of Data Driven Decision...
Transcript of Predictive Analytics Conference - Rapid Insight · Creating a Culture of Data Driven Decision...
Predictive Analytics Conference
Predictive Analytics Conference
Creating a Culture of Data Driven Decision Making
Elizabeth Crabtree Assistant Vice President for Strategy and Resource Development
Division of Advancement | Brown University
Welcome To Brown
Advancement at Brown
• Consists of Alumni Relations, Development, Strategy and Resource Development and Marketing and Communications.
• 200 FTEs
• $225 million annual fundraising revenues
• 23,000 volunteers
• 35,000 guests attending nearly 1,000 events
• 2,500 personal visits per year
The Big Picture
• Fundraising is becoming more challenging and more competitive
• Nonprofit funding needs are ever increasing
• Philanthropic behaviors and donor interests are diverse and complex
• Constituent engagement efforts are evolving, multi-channel, technology-driven and fast-paced
Management Challenges
• Internal and external environment
• Goal setting and attainment
• Benchmarks and performance metrics
• Resource allocations
– people, programs, technology, tools, budgets
– Investment, but also cost containment
• Fact and data-driven decision-making
– past, present and future (predictive)
Analytics and Modeling in Fundraising
• Relevant
• Timely
• Objective
• Creates Confidence
• Increases Effectiveness
• Improves Performance
Measuring Outcomes
• Data mining has been active in Advancement at Brown for nearly 15 years
• Campaign goals required fundraising revenues to grow three-fold
• Refocused data mining on prospect identification and donor segmentation
2004 – 2011
Boldly Brown: Campaign
for Academic
Enrichment
$1.6B raised
$200M avg.
1991 – 1996
Campaign for the
Rising Generation
$534M raised
$76M avg.
Historical Giving and Campaigns
New Gifts & Pledges ($ Millions)
Gee (1998–2000)
Simmons (2001–2012)
Gregorian (1989–1997)
$35
$55
$90
$65 $56
$135
$88
$76
$45
$64
$106 $114 $113
$91
$54
$181
$234
$204
$281
$224
$177
$126
$166
$188 $196
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Paxson (2013– )
Blumstein
Growth Rate Benchmark Comparisons
0% 1% 3% 4% 2% 5% 6% 7% 8%
All Private Higher
Education (1.5%)
Brown (4.2%)
10-Year Compound Annual Growth Rates three-year comparison periods of FY00-FY02 to FY10-FY12(1)
Top 10 Private
Research Universities
(3.6%)
Highest Private
Research University
(MIT at 6.4%)
Comparable to Stanford at 4.5%
Yale at 4.6% Columbia at 4.2%
(1) As compiled by Grenzebach Glier and Associates (2) Other comparison growth rates of note: Brown’s 10-year CAGR for FY04 – FY14 is 2.2% 40-year CAGR for Top 10 Private Research Universities is 7.7%
Brown Fundraising Growth Scenarios
LOW 1.5% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Annual $147 $225 $228 $232 $235 $239 $242 $246 $250 $253
Cumulative $147 $372 $600 $832 $1,067 $1,306 $1,548 $1,794 $2,044 $2,298
MODERATE 3.6% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Annual $147 $225 $233 $241 $250 $259 $269 $278 $288 $299
Cumulative $147 $372 $605 $846 $1,096 $1,355 $1,624 $1,902 $2,190 $2,489
HIGH 6.4% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Annual $147 $225 $239 $255 $271 $288 $307 $326 $347 $370
Cumulative $147 $372 $611 $866 $1,137 $1,425 $1,732 $2,058 $2,405 $2,776
$ in millions
Top Donor Analysis (FY04 – FY14)
• A total of 511 donors made gifts of $500K or more during the last ten years, totaling $1.689B
• 358 of these donors have future major / principal gift potential, totaling approx. $1.5 billion
• 271 donors
• $1.2B potential
FY14-FY15
• 64 donors
•$256M potential
FY16-FY17
• 23 donors
• $123M potential FY18+
Line of Sight – Potential Solicitations of Top Donors During Next Five Years
$128.4
$471.6
$234.4
$857.0
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
Donors of $500K+
$ in
mill
ion
$10M+ 31 donors $5M - $9.9M 38 donors $1M - $4.9M 246 donors $500K - $999K 196 donors
2014 –
Future Campaign
$265M avg.
$300M avg.
2004 – 2011
Boldly Brown: Campaign
for Academic
Enrichment
$1.6B raised
$200M avg.
1991 – 1996
Campaign for the
Rising Generation
$534M raised
$76M avg.
Historical Giving and Campaigns
New Gifts & Pledges ($ Millions)
Gee (1998–2000)
Simmons (2001–2012)
Gregorian (1989–1997)
$35
$55
$90
$65 $56
$135
$88
$76
$45
$64
$106 $114 $113
$91
$54
$181
$234
$204
$281
$224
$177
$126
$166
$188 $196
$225
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Paxson (2013– )
* Estimated moderate 3.6% compound annual growth and high 6.4% compound annual growth rate.
Blumstein
BROWN UNIVERSITY
CONSTITUENT DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKET ANALYSIS
A D V A N C E M E N T D I V I S I O N
MAY 2014
PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 O
VER
VIEW
Key Constituents
The Brown University Advancement Division is focused upon fundraising and engagement activities for over 100,000 living alumni and 7,000 non-alumni current parents, as well as developing strategic partnerships and leveraging opportunities with corporations, foundations and global philanthropists who have interest in supporting Brown’s student, academic and research initiatives. Brown’s alumni and parent population is spread around the globe, with high concentrations along the east coast of the United States, particularly in the New England (21%) and New York Metropolitan (24%) regions, as well as California and the Pacific west coast (15%), and in countries throughout North and Latin America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
Alumni Distribution by Degree
Alumni and Parent Geographic Distribution
80,098
16,520
3,529
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Medical Alumni
Graduate Alumni
Undergraduate Alumni
New York Metro 24%
New England 21%
Pacific 15%
Mid-Atlantic 11%
Midwest 8%
International 8%
Southeast 7%
Western 6%
PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 O
VER
VIEW
Constituent Concentration by U.S. Census Division (Alumni and Parents)
PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 P
RO
SPEC
TS Domestic U.S. Prospects – Major Markets
17
As of 1-30-2014
PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 U
ND
ERG
RA
DU
ATE A
LUM
NI
Undergraduate Alumni By Decade
By 2015, nearly one-third (25,000) of undergraduate alumni will have graduated in the last fifteen years (since 2000). More than half of these alumni will be under age 50. Since the 1980s, female graduates outnumber male graduates by 6% or 1,539. With life expectancies for women greater than that of men, the representation of alumnae will become even greater over time. (1)
By 2019, the undergraduate alumni base is estimated to be nearly 90,000 individuals, an increase of 10% or more. These alumni will also be increasingly diverse –geographically, socio-economically and professionally – and will be represented by more women than men. (2)
2,144
5,377
7,428
11,176
14,226 14,967 15,543 16,159
Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s*
Alumni Distribution by Decade Alumni Distribution by Gender
1,441 3,824 5,289
7,100 7,220 7,403 7,140 7,650
703
1,553 2,139
4,076 7,006 7,564 8,403 8,509
Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s*
Male Female
Pre-1970s 16%
1970s 13%
1980s 16% 1990s
18%
2000s 18%
2010s 19%
Projected Alumni Distribution by 2019 *
* Estimated (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Government. (2) Estimate based on admissions data, graduation rates and expected undergraduate class size growth of 1% annually.
PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 P
RO
SPEC
TS Undergraduate Alumni Prospects By Decade Currently, the largest group of undergraduate alumni prospects are from the classes of the 1980s. The majority of alumni prospects (57%) are from the decades of the 1980s and 1990s. 10% of the 1980s alumni are considered to have major or principal gift potential ($100K+ gift capacity). This is compared to 6% of alumni for all classes prior to 1980. Peak earning years: ages 45–54 followed closely by ages 35–44 (1) • In 2014 represents classes of 1982 – 2001 • In 2024 represents classes of 1992 – 2012 Opportunities for further research and engagement of alumni prospects from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s should be considered. It is expected that another 1,000+ prospects could be identified from these classes.
32 214 378
906
1,447
804
142
Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Undergraduate Alumni Prospects by Decade Alumni Prospect Distribution by Capacity
28 166 290
760
1,217
691
121 4 48
88
146
230
113
21
Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Major Gift Prospects ($100K - $999K) Top Prospects ($1M+)
Pre-1970s 16%
1970s 23%
1980s 37%
1990s 20%
2000s 4%
Prospect Distribution by Class Year
(1) © 2014 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. Sourced from U.S. Census Bureau real (inflation-adjusted) series chained in 2012 dollars based on a research variant of the Consumer Price Index.
Projected Growth Over Next Five Years ~ 1,000+ new prospects
How Have Brown Alumni Adopted LinkedIn?
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
*Represents Brown alumni records “matched” with LinkedIn records.
% of members across the gift
pyramid
Adoption of LinkedIn by Rated Prospects
$1m - $24.9m
$50k - $1m
$25k - $50k
<$25k
A
34.8%
B - 42.9%
C – 55.2%
D – 59.1%
E – 63.8%
F – 62.1%
G – 61.0%
H – 54.4%
I – 46.1%
LinkedIn Members Gave at a 70% Higher Rate
than Non-Members*…
*Represents giving by all constituents in FY ‘13
Top 10 LinkedIn Industries by Median Gift
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
Pharmaceuticals
Financial Services
Real Estate
Philanthropy
Retail
Telecommunications
Consumer Goods
Investment Management
Investment Banking
Venture Capital & Private Equity
*Represents giving by all constituents in FY ‘13
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
How Many Alumni Engage With Our Facebook Content?
*“Engagement” defined as “liking or commenting on BAA or PAUR Facebook post
Which Alumni Are Most Engaged
With BAA Facebook Content?
*“Engagement” defined as “liking or commenting on BAA Facebook post
More Likes = More Participation
39.6%
50.4%
54.6%
61.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0 1 2-9 10+
*EverTrue analysis of Facebook giving trends
The Road Ahead
• Learn the basics, build upon skills
• Understand the sell-in phase
• Impact takes times
• Challenges exist
– Access to data
– Selection of tools
– Time
Conclusions
• Effective data analytics, modeling and research in fundraising: – Increases number and quality of prospects
– Increases levels of giving
– Increases engagement efforts
– Improves donor acquisition
– Improves fundraising program performance
– Identifies opportunities and leverage resources
– Informs decision-making via data analysis
– Secures availability of resources (staff and budget)
Predictive Analytics Conference