Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Areas-

Study from central Switzeland

D. Tobler, P. Mani, N. Hählen

Foro International Glaciares, HuarazJuly 1th – 4th, 2013

1. Introduction

2. Concept

3. Methods

4. Results

5. Conclusions

Content

Guttannen, Central Switzerland - Bernese Oberland

1. Introduction

1. Introduction

1. Introduction

1. Introduction - Events

1. Introduction - Events

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG velocity: ~ 15 m/s

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

2. Concept – Process Chain

2. Concept – Process Chain

2. Concept – Process Chain

Hählen (2012)

Rockfall

Ritzlihorn

Debris-Fan

Precipitation Temperature

Melting Permafrost

Aare River

Snow - Avalanches

2. Concept – Process Chain

2. Concept – Process Chain

3. Methods – Climate

Linsbauer et al. (in prep)

ΔT [

°C

]

+ 2.9 °C (2060)

+ 1.7 °C (2028)

Temperatur Grimsel Hospiz

1980-2009

2035 2060 2060(M3)

JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2

SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0

# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34

Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10

CH2011 (2011)

3. Methods – Glacier Retreat

16.11.2012

2013

2035

retreat

2060

retreat

Szenario 2060

3. Methods – Glacier Retreat

Szenario 2060Szenario 2060

Paul and Linsbauer (2012)

3. Methods – Permafrost

Böckli (2012)Nötzli et al. (2012)

Time

Rela

tive R

ate

/ A

mount

Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment

3. Methods – Permafrost

3. Methods – Process Models

PROCESS MODELS

SLIDISP+

Liener (2000)Riner (2009)

Tobler et al. (2011)

ROFMOD 3D

Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)

Scheuner and McArdell (2007)

RAMMSDebris Flow

4. Results - Rockfall

Depositionvolume[m3]

4. Results - Landslides

4. Results – Debris Flow

Rotlaui Channel

4. Results – Debris Flow

Spreitgraben

- Where are the critical sections along

the mountain pass road?

- Rough estimation of the amount of

bedload depostion possible ?

- Definition of possible protection

measures ?

5. Conclusions / Outlook

5. Conclusions / Outlook

+ 150’000 m3

+ 1.5 mio m3

+ 2.0 mio m3

Key to Success

- Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains

- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps

- Knowing existing uncertainties

5. Conclusions / Outlook

5. Conclusions / Outlook

Thank You