Pradeep Tharakan - Determining the Prospects for CCS in S.E

7/31/2019 Pradeep Tharakan - Determining the Prospects for CCS in S.E

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Pradeep Tharakan

Climate Change Specialist

Energy Division, Southeast Asia Department

Asian Development Bank

Determining the Prospects forCCS in Southeast Asia


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Presentation Outline

Prospects for CCS in S.E. Asia.

Thailand Case Study.

Conclusions from ADBs Work.


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Energy Sector Emissions to Increase

Regions primary energy demand increases by 76%(2007-2030)

Coal use set to increase (Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, IEA)

ASEAN Generation Capacity by Country and

Fuel


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Source: CCS Road Map (IEA, 2009)

CCS cost varies across sectors

CO2-EOR can

help offset costs


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5

Average Ranges for CO2 in Natural Gas Fields in Viet Nam(Source: ADB study)

25 80% CO2

20 60% CO2

2

12% CO22 5% CO2

30 40% CO2

High CO2 gas fields in

S.E. Asia

CO2 flooding (CO2-EOR) could increase oilproduction andenhance energysecurity


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CCS in Southeast Asia

Focus on 4 countries: Indonesia (South Sumatra region),Philippines (CALABARZON region), Thailand and Viet Nam

US$1.35 Million grant from Global CCS Institute throughADB Clean Energy Financing Partnership Facility

Worked commenced in October 2010, TA completed byDecember 2012

TA output Detailed country reports confidential (July 2012)

Regional analysis report highlights and comparisons (August 2012)


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TA Activities

Screen CO2 Sources(Current & Future)

Oil andGas

Power Chemical

Screen Storage/SinkSites

Oil andGas

SalineAquifer

CoalbedMethane

Source-SinkMatching

EconomicAnalysis Social Analysis

Legal/RegulatoryAnalysis

CCS Roadmap


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Thailand Case Study

8


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9

Ranking CriteriaItem Preferential Criteria

1 Remaining Life (Startup Date)

2 Plant Operating Stability

3 CO2 Volume per Year

4 Source Stream CO2 Concentration

5 Source Stream SOx Concentration

6 Source Stream NOx Concentration

7 Source Stream O2 Concentration

8 Source Stream Particulates Content

9 Trace Materials Content

10 Distance from Attractive Storage Location

11 Existing Infrastructure

12 Space Availability

13 Supercritical Power Station

14 Willing Partner

15 Storage Opportunity


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Existing Thailand

CO2 Sources

10

51 major sourcescovering powergeneration, cement, oil

and gas production, andnatural gas processing .

21 sources produce>2Mt/y and 29 >1Mt/y.


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Ranking of Sources by All Criteria

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-30,000,000

-25,000,000

-20,000,000

-15,000,000

-10,000,000

-5,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

RayongNGProcessing

KhanomNGProcessing

Gheco-one

KhanomCombineCycle

GulfPowerGeneration

RatchauriPower(Set1

,2)

GlowIPP(Bow

in)

IndependentPower(Thaila

nd)

Triene

rgy

RatchaburiCombineCyc

le1


le3


le2

Wangnoipowerplant

BLCPPowerPlant

Chanapowerplant

Namphongpowerplant

Rayong-set4

EasternPower

Rayong-set1

Rayong-set3

Rayong-set2

MaeMohpowerplant

Score(M

ax=100)

EstimatedCO2Emi

ssion(t/y)

EstCO2 (t/y)

Score (100)

I


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CO2 Sink Identification and Ranking

Data request

Oil and gas fields; EOR Prospects

Saline aquifers

Storage volume estimates

Simple decision analysis process

Decision factors Qualifying and Preferential

Weightings

Scoring

12


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ThailandsSedimentaryBasins (90+)

13


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CO2Storage Capacity in Thailands Sedimentary Basins

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Th il d Oil & G Fi ld CO St C it


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Thailands Oil & Gas Fields CO2 Storage Capacity

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Carbon Capture and Storage in ThailaBangkok 2 May 2012

Asian Development Bank

245


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Oil is blue

Gas is red

Ordered by score.


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Source-Sinkmatches - 300 km

Radius


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Possible CCS Projects - Thailand

Onshore Capture/Onshore Storage CO2 for a pilot from a closer industrial source

CO2 storage at A oil and gas field with EOR opportunity and 49 Mt ofstorage capacity

1 Mt/y CO2 capture at B coal fired power station, pipeline distance 200 km (possible use of existing pipeline)

E Oil & Gas field with possible EOR and ~55 Mt of storage

Offshore Capture/Offshore Storage

CO2 sources at multiple offshore platforms, pipeline >100 km

Multiple offshore depleted reservoirs, some with EOR potential,

storage ~400 Mt

18


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19

Pathway to CCS Commercialization

(2012-2017)

(2018-2028)

(2029-2049)


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Economic Analysis of CCS: Thailand Case

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Case studies presented ~550 MWe supercritical coal plant burning imported bituminous coal

(4 Mt/y of CO2),

~500 MWe natural gas combined cycle unit (1.4 Mt/y of CO2)

1 Mt/y of CO2 capture from natural gas processing plants.

Costs were estimated using data available in the publishedto literature

Impact of CO2-EOR on project economics

Sensitivity analysis


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Capital Costs

Equipment purchase &installation

Labour Bulks Engineering, Construction

Management, Head office& Fee

Physical contingencies Owner's costs CO2 pipeline construction CO2 storage site

construction

Annual Costs

Fuel Fixed OPEX Variable OPEX Pipeline maintenance CO2 storage operating cost

Financial

Levelised Cost of Electricity(LCOE) or CO2 captured

Maximum CO2 costacceptable to the oil company

for EOR

Cost and Financial Viability Indicators

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Levelized Cost of Electricity

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CCS increases the cost of electricity, more for coal than natural gas The higher capital cost of coal-fired plants is a major factor


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Cost of CO2 captured or avoided

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The higher CO2 avoided cost is the most important value for trading credits A full subsidy of the CO2 avoided cost will wipe out the increased cost of

electricity due to CCS at the power plant


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Coal Plant

NGCC

With a CCS Capex subsidy of$2400/kW, coal power plantcan generate electricity at$113/MWh. However, it willneed additional adder of$25/MWh to meet currentelectricity tariff at $88/MWh

Without a CCS Capex subsidyan adder of $58/MWh will be

needed to support CCS.

With a CCS Capex subsidy of$600/kW, NGCC will generateelectricity at $88/MWh, thecurrent electricity tariff

Without a CCS Capex subsidyNGCC will require an adder of$7/MWh to operate

NGCC is a better option for CCSin the near term

$146/MWh

$95/MWh

Reference assumption



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CO2 from gas processing for EOR

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The capture cost of a pure CO2 stream from gas processing plus the cost ofpipelining over 150 km is estimated at $23/t captured. This cost is supported by

EOR at an oil price greater than $70/b

BreakevenAt $70/b



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Results from Other FocusCountries

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Possible CCS Projects Indonesia (South Sumatra)

South Sumatra identified a total of 8 Mt/year ofemissions source from power generation, cement,fertilizer production and oil and gas sector

Smaller volume of source of pure CO2 stream exist in

gas processing plants - cost effective supply optionfor smaller scale CCS projects

The most attractive storage options for CCS appearsto be depleting oil fields EOR opportunities

ADB will explore possible support for a grant-financedCCS pilot activity in Indonesia with the governmentand the state-owned oil and gas company.

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Possible CCS Projects

Viet Nam

Attractive CO2 sources exist, today and in the future

Suitable sinks available - offshore

Gas processing offers future opportunity for CCSproject

Philippines

Storage in Oil and Gas field (cap. 287 Mt), field is

available for storage by 2024. Other storage (need further study): Geothermal fields

and Ophiolites

A near-term CCS project in the Calabarzon region is

hard to justify. 28


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CCS in Southeast Asia

Near-term Focus on Gas Processing Facilities. Existing capacity within operators

High CO2 fields provide economic incentive

Combine with EOR for additional revenue

Medium term emphasis on gas-fired power plants. Especially if a shift to gas as projected happens

In countries where tariff structure is supportive

Combine with EOR for additional revenue

Medium-to-long term emphasis on coal-fired powerplants. Lack of familiarity with SC and USC coal-fired plants

No plans for IGCC

Increased tariffs are a hard sell


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THANK YOUwww.adb.org

[email protected]
http://www.adb.org/http://www.adb.org/

Pradeep Tharakan - Determining the Prospects for CCS in S.E

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