June 9th 2011

Some comments about the analytical approachPasquale Cirillo pasquale.cirillo@stat.unibe.ch

PPPs

27%

16%37%

5%13%

3%

EAP ECALAC MNASAR SSA

PPP

inve

stm

ents

in

rene

wab

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ased

ene

rgy

Points of strength

✤ Interesting data set.

✤ Useful descriptive analysis.

✤ Correct choice of methodologies.

✤ In particular, the probit model is a nice tool to study the impact of different facts (and variables) on the probability of a given event to manifest itself (here PPP).

✤ Fundamental support for more qualitative studies, to which this analysis provides strong additional evidence.

Weaknesses

✤ No particular weakness at this stage.

✤ For the final version of the report, some additional test on the GLM parameters could be performed.

Possible Extensions

✤ Hierarchical modeling.

✤ Cointegration to study investments co-movements (?).

June 9th 2011

Some comments about the analytical approachPasquale Cirillo pasquale.cirillo@stat.unibe.ch

0

22,5

45

67,5

90

Residential AccessEnergy sold p.e.

TariffEmission Index

Vertical Unbundling Vertical Integration

Market Structure

Points of strength

✤ Interesting panel data set, correct data treatment.

✤ Clear choice of variables & correct specification of the alternative models (FE vs RE).

✤ Statistically sound results to develop policy recommendations.

✤ Identification of non-trivial relations among the variables.

✤ Analysis of common features and average patterns.

✤ Quantitative indicators.

Weaknesses

✤ This type of analysis gives strong evidence on averages, but it may neglect idiosyncratic shocks and country specific qualitative components (history, political peculiarities, etc.).

✤ Integration with other tools such as Case Studies is needed to have a “vue d’ensemble”.

Possible Extensions

✤ Additional tests for comparing groups.

✤ Hierarchical modeling.

✤ Cluster analysis to look for hidden affinities.