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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Climate+Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Implicat ions for Irrigat ion

David Molden The Hindu Kush Himalaya

Global asset for food, energy, water, carbon, and cultural and

biological diversity

• 8 countries

• 240 million

people in the

HKH

• 1.9 billion

people

downstream

Source of

10 major Asian

river systems

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Diversity in the HKH:Over 1,000 liv ing languages

Yet Poverty Remains High

Mountains support

high levels of

agricultural diversity

HKH basins support some of the world’s most populated areas

Supports immense areas

of irrigation

Equity and Sustainability Challenges

• Gender inequality, inclusive development

• 300M people malnourished

• 20% no electricity

• 70-80% food production depends on groundwater irrigation

• 5% land feeding 20% population

Water-Food-Energy-Climate Change

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Current Climate

(Heat Stress)

Source:

ALTERRA, Wageningen University

Source: ALTERRA, Wageningen Environmental Research

Now: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30o C.

1 to 10

RCP 4.5

2050 Scenario

2050: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30o C.

45 to 60

Climate Change: Temperature Amplification in Mountains of the HKH

1.8 ± 0.4˚C in a 1.5 degree world

2.5 ± 1.5˚C in a 2 degree world (RCP4.5)

Too hot for mountains

West RongbukGlacier

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What is happening tothe HKH cryosphere?

Estimating cryosphere change and impact on water flows

Information on: temperature, snow, glaciers, permafrost, black carbon, rain

Significant data gaps exist, especially at high elevation

Studies based on field data, remote sensing and modeling

• Understanding role and importance of cryosphere

• Cryosphere monitoring programmes in Nepal and Bhutan

• Capacity development in the region

• 712 people since 2013 (25% women)

• Regional Cryosphere Knowledge hub

• Filling data gaps: Data from Nepal (since 2011) and Bhutan submitted to World Glacier Monitoring Serv ice

Snow Accumulation and Melt Processesin Himalayan Catchment (Snow-AMP) Meteorology and Hydrology

Automatic weather station

Hydrological station

Glaciers

Langtang Valley - for monitoring and training -

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Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) resultsSource: Immerzeel, 2014

Courtesy Walter Immerzeel

Most glaciers are losing ice volume

Karakoram Anomaly

Source: Kaab et al, 2015

• Area change -20 to -55%

• Indus: -20 to -30%

Shrinking Glaciers: Glacial Area Change by 2050

Water and Climate Atlas

Westerlies & Monsoon

Westerlies

Monsoon

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Air Pollution and Black Carbon Impacts

• Raises temperatures

• Accelerates glacier and snow melt

• Negatively impacts health

• Reduces crop yield

NOV – APR SKYSource: Lutz, Immerzeel, Shrestha, Bierkens, Nature Climate Change, 2014

Contribution of glacier and snow melt runoff1998–2007

Indus Ganges Brahmaputra

Sources of water flow

2050 –

RC

P 8

.5

DR

Y

2050 –

RC

P 4

.5

WE

T

Refe

rence

2050 –

RC

P 8

.5

DR

Y

2050 –

RC

P 4

.5

WE

T

Refe

rence

Nang, Ladakh, India

Communities dependent on glacier and snow melt are feeling the impacts

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Irrigation systems in Nepal

High Mountain Irrigation System (FMISs)

Mid hills irrigation system (FMISs)

Plain irrigation system (AMIS)

Upstream

Midstream

Downstream

Snow and Glacier melt

Rainfed and spring

River and groundwater

Courtesy: Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Uttarakhand:21,000 or 32,000 hill irrigation systems are springfed

Climate change impacts on water resources

• Loss of storage in the form of ice

• Greater impact for those liv ing closer to glaciers

• Predicted annual flow volume –no significant change

• Changing precipitation and flow patterns – more floods and droughts; high uncertainty

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Changes in extremes: Floods

Relative change in 50 year return period of floods

Extremes will increase strongly during 21st century,

approximate doubling in

magnitude at end of century

Source:

Wingaard et al. 2017, PlosOne (Under review)

One-third of disasters are floods, many crossing national

borders

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What can we do about it?

Irrigation is critical for many mountain communities

Impacts on Local Communities:Loss of water source

Passu, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Artificial Glaciers

Choyang NorphelPhoto c/o Choyang Norphel

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Solar Powered Pumping in Mountains

Solar Powered Irrigation Pumps

New financing models for women?

Identification of Recharge Area

Recharge Interventions for Springs

Recharge Interventions for Springs

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HKH-HYCOS: Setting up real-time monitoring stations in transboundary basins and establishment of flood information systems

Making information travel faster than flood waters

Partners: hydromet agencies Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal & Pakistan

Promotion of regional cooperation and timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform

HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building under the Global framework of WMO’s WHYCOS

CBFEWS in G-B Pakistan

Community based early warning system

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Resilient Mountain Villages

• Integrated, affordable, replicable approach to adaptation

8 pilot

villages

in Nepal

+1,000 households

83% women

farmers

Upscaled to 14 districts by Nepal government

Resilient outcomes through risk mitigation and livelihood

diversification

• Recovery from shocks

• Improved adaptive capacity

• Transformative change

Two Punjabs, One Atmosphere

Courtesy of Arnico Panday, ICIMOD

Communicating science to policy and decision makers

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Climate Change Impacts

• Higher temperatures

• Many places higher rainfall, more intense rainfall events, changing monsoon patterns

• Higher incidence of floods and droughts

• Cryospheric impact – location specific

• More uncertainty and higher variability of flows

• Changing crop response, higher ET

• Climate change impacts are mixed with a range of other socio-economic drivers

Actions

• Manage – irrigation water, drainage, rainfall• Manage socio-economic + climate changes

• Work across sectors and disciplines to build resilience

• Work across boundaries to manage shared resources

• Storage – including natural storage (soils, GW, wetlands)

• Take global action

Thank You

Photo: Karen Conniff