PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

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PotashCorp.com BMO Farm to Market Conference May 14, 2013 Bill Doyle President and CEO

Transcript of PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Page 1: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

PotashCorp.com

BMO Farm to Market Conference

May 14, 2013

Bill Doyle

President and CEO

Page 2: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

SQM

ICL

APC

Nitrogen

Phosphate

(Mining/Processing)

Potash

Investments

Sinofert

Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp

A Global Crop Nutrient Company

PotashCorp Profile

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate

% of Global Capacity* 20% 2% 5%

Global Position #1 #3 #3

% of Gross Margin (2012) 57% 29% 14%

* Based on nameplate capacity at year-end 2012, which may exceed operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level)

Page 4: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

* 2013F as at April 25, 2013

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F*0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0Potash Nitrogen Phosphate

Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth

PotashCorp Profile

PotashCorp Gross Margin

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

64%

43%

22%

PotashCorp Gross Margin Percentage

Percentage of Net Sales (2012)

10-Year Growth: +1,000%

Gross Margin - US$ Billions

Page 5: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Agricultural Market Update

Page 6: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

Consumption Production

2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.

Million Tonnes

World Grain and Oilseed Supply/DemandNeed Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Further Shortfall

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios

6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)

4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)

Page 7: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-1350

100

150

200Crop Price Index* Fertilizer Price Index**

Price Index (2010 Average = 100)

Crop and Fertilizer Price RelationshipSignificant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)

Page 8: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Fertilizer Market UpdatePotash Update

Page 9: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

2011

2012E

2013F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash ShipmentsSlower Demand Periods Have Historically Been Followed by Robust Growth

6.5% CAGR

5.3% CAGR

Page 10: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Potash Shipments to Key Regions Excluding IndiaStrong Growth in Key Regions

Source: Potafertz, Fertecon, CRU, IFA, IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 Latin America China Other Asia North America

3.5% CAGR

Page 11: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

2012 China India Other Asia

Latin America

North America

Other 2013F46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash DemandConsumption Expected to Drive 2013 Shipments

Region 2012 2013F

China 10.6 ~11.5

India 3.5 ~4.0

Other Asia 7.5 ~8.3

Latin America 9.5 ~10.2

North America 7.9 ~9.5

Other 12.0 ~12.5

Total 51.0 55-57

Estimated Shipments by Region* (million tonnes)

* 2013F based on midpoint of estimated global shipment range

** Estimates per PotashCorp

Page 12: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

North America UpdateLow Dealer Inventories and Strong Crop Economics Support Demand

Source: IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Commentary

• Expect fertilizer applications to be robust due to supportive crop economics and increased agronomic requirements from declining potassium levels

• Strong start to the season as buyers begin to secure product for spring needs given limited inventory at the distributor and retail level

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2012/13F

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Shipments Jul-Dec Shipments Jan-Jun Consumption

Million Tonnes KCl

Page 13: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Latin America UpdatePotash Import Demand Anticipated to Remain Robust

Source: Potafertz

Commentary

• High planted acreage and very supportive farm economics leading to robust fertilizer demand

• Off to a record start in 2013 with strong potash shipments from both Canpotex and New Brunswick

• Given port congestion issues, distributors working to more evenly spread fertilizer shipments throughout the year

• 2013 demand for potash on pace to meet or surpass 2012 record levels

Million Tonnes KCl

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013F0

2

4

6

8

10

12Potash Shipments Potash Consumption

Page 14: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

China UpdateConsumption Growth Expected to Increase Import Requirements

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Commentary

• Anticipate growth in potash consumption given need to increase domestic productivity due to rising costs of soybean and corn imports

• Significant tonnage currently contracted for first-half 2013 delivery

• Canpotex contract commitments for first-half 2013 represent record levels

Million Tonnes KCl

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

2011 2 20

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Potash Shipments Potash Consumption

Page 15: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

India UpdateExpect Modest Growth From 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Potash Imports K:N Ratio

K:N Ratio Commentary

• Lower potash prices have translated into marginal savings for farmers due to subsidy changes

• Total shipments in 2013 expected to surpass previous year; Canpotex’s contracted volumes represent a significant increase above those in 2012

• Based on estimated imports, K:N ratio likely to remain well-below scientifically recommended levels; unlikely to sufficiently improve lagging yields

Million Tonnes KCl

Page 16: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Other Asia UpdateExpect Strong Demand Growth in Indonesia and Malaysia

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Commentary

• Strong consumption trends were masked by destocking activities in 2012

• Shipments to this market accelerated soon after the settlement of new contracts in China and India

• Despite volatility in prices of palm oil, a key consumer of potash in the region, grower economics remain supportive for robust potash demand

Million Tonnes KCl

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

2011 2 20

2

4

6

8

10Potash Shipments Potash Consumption

Page 17: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

The PotashCorp Advantage: Positioned to Deliver Superior Performance

Page 18: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

42%

PotashCorp Rest of World

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Company Reports, PotashCorp

Positioned to Respond to Expected Potash Demand Growth

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Percentage of New Operational Capability (2012-2016F)*

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

3.5%

1.3%

2.7%

Growth in Global Fertilizer Consumption

Estimated Annual Increase (2012-2016)

23%

Percentage of Global Operational Capability (2016F)*

* Based on public filings and PotashCorp’s estimates of global operational capability

Page 19: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: AMEC, Company Reports, PotashCorp

1 New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).

2 PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate; assuming US$/CDN$ at par.

3 Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.

4 Calculation of IRR assumes: PotashCorp average per tonne capital cost; 4 year construction timeline, 1 year ramp up and no potash production tax on incremental tonnes.

POT Projects Completed

POT Projects in Progress

SK Greenfield0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500 Greenfield (Including infrastructure and reserve costs)

Greenfield (Excluding infrastructure and reserve costs)

US$ per Tonne

Higher-Cost, Low-Return Greenfield Potash Projects Could Be Deferred

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

$300/tonne $400/tonne $500/tonne0%

10%

20%

30%

40% Estimated PotashCorp Brownfield IRR

Estimated Greenfield IRR (Excluding infrastructure and reserve)

Estimated Greenfield IRR (Including infrastructure and reserve)

1,2

3

1,2,4

3

3

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - Percentage

Estimated Capital Cost of Greenfield Projects

Estimated Return on Brownfield vs Greenfield

Negative

Return

Netback Scenarios

Page 20: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Capacity*

New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

36%

21%

43%

Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN

2013 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume)

2012 2013F0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar

Million Tonnes

$190 million expansion of our Lima, OH ammonia (+88,000 short tons/year) and urea capacity (+80,000 short tons/year) expected to be complete by late 2015

* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year

Incremental GM of approximately $100-130 million

Page 21: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price

Industrial and Feed Products Enhance Stability in Phosphate

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

PotashCorp* Mosaic**0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Feed & Industrial Fertilizer

Phosphate Product Mix (Sales Volume)

US$/tonne

* Based on 2013 YTD sales volumes

** Mosaic’s percentage based on feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed for the last four fiscal quarters

Page 22: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Cash Flow Opportunity

Page 23: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

Strong Cash Flow + Reduced Capital Spending = Greater Financial Flexibility

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000 Cash Provided by Operating Activities

Capital Spending

US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

* As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2003 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010 , 2011 and 2012.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

US$ Millions

** Excluding capitalized interest, major repairs and maintenance and Lima expansion

Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities* PotashCorp Capital Spending**

Page 24: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

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Page 25: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 14, 2013

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