PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

28
PotashCorp.com BMO Farm to Market Conference May 2014 Wayne Brownlee Executive VP & CFO

Transcript of PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Page 1: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

PotashCorp.com

BMO Farm to Market Conference

May 2014

Wayne Brownlee

Executive VP & CFO

Page 2: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#1

Page 3: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

PotashCorp Overview

World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash and among the largest in nitrogen and phosphate.

Global leader in potash; nutrient with highest margins and significant barriers to entry.

Canadian potash operations and strategic offshore investments position us to benefit from growth markets.

World-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses focused on more stable feed and industrial markets.

Slide#2

Page 4: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2013• Reduction in capex: 93 percent complete CDN $8.3B potash expansion

program

• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key markets

• Operational capability aligned with anticipated near-term demand

• Flexibility to significantly grow sales volume

• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950 percent since January 2011

• Dividend payout ratio of ~4%

• Anticipate Completion of 5% share repurchase program by August 1st

PotashCorp Highlights

Slide#3

Page 5: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Fertilizer Fundamentals

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Factors to Watch in 2014

Agriculture Market Update

Spring planting delayed due to long cold winter. Farmers

expected to plant less corn and more soybeans, cotton and rice.

Political tension could disrupt grain trade. Access to credit could be an

issue for Ukrainian farmers.

Brazil soybean economics are strong and corn returns have improved since late 2013. Logistics modestly better than last year but still constrained.

European wheat production expected to be strong and more rapeseed planting

expected.

China grain and oilseed imports continue to rise despite cancelation of some corn and soybean cargoes.

Some concern that Indian monsoon could be below

average in 2014.

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

Dry weather has impacted oil palm yields and supported

prices.

Slide#5

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Palm Oil Sugar Wheat Corn Soybeans0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20 Chart Title

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

Agricultural FundamentalsStrong Underlying Support for Robust Fertilizer Demand

Slide#6

Percentage Price Change: Jan 1 – May 13, 2014 Fertilizer Affordability Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450 Crop Price Index*Fertilizer Price Index**

* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)

** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)

Page 8: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

PotashCorp's Nutrient Advantages

Page 9: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

Potash*

Expect Improved Demand Across All Three Nutrients

2014 Global Nutrient Demand

2012 2013 2014F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

*Based on mid-point of PotashCorp guidance.

KCl – Million Tonnes

Nitrogen

2012 2013 2014F0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200Ammonia – Million Tonnes

Phosphate

2012 2013 2014F0

10

20

30

40

50P205 – Million Tonnes

Slide#8

10% 6%5%

Page 10: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

4.0%

2.3% 2.2%

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

The Potash Advantage

Percent – CAGR (2013-2018F)

Stronger Future Growth Prospects and Significant Time and Cost for New Capacity

Estimated Demand Growth Rate

Potash* Phosphate** Nitrogen***$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

Greenfield Cost Profile

US$ - Billions

* Estimated time and cost for a 2MMT KCL conventional greenfield mine in Saskatchewan. Includes rail, utility systems, port facilities and cost of deposits

** Includes phosphate rock mine, sulfuric acid plant, phosphoric acid plant and DAP/MAP granulation plant. Does not include time for permitting, research and engineering

*** Cost of ammonia/urea complex

~ 7 years

3-4 years~3 years

Slide#9

Page 11: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

F

2015

F

2016

F

2017

F

2018

F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Shipments Shipment Range* Operational Capability

Million Tonnes KCl

Potash Operational Capability Historically in Excess of Demand

World Potash Supply and Demand

* Midpoint of shipment range based on ~2.5% annualized demand growth rate (1998-2018F).

Slide#10

Page 12: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

PotashCorp is Uniquely PositionedLow-cost Producer with Significant Percentage of Global Capacity

Slide#11

POT (SK)

POT (NB)

Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*

* Site cost includes all cash operating costs, estimated per-tonne sustaining capital expenditures, royalties and taxes. Darker shaded bars represent CRU estimated mine site production costs at actual production levels; lighter shaded bars represent PotashCorp’s estimate of competitors cost range based on company reported data. Includes impact of PotashCorp’s announced changes for 2014 (upper end of range) and 2016 target (lower end of range).

** Competitive position dependent on end-market destination.

*** Based on nameplate capacity at year-end 2013, which may exceed operational capability

US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**)

PotashCorp Rest of World

Percentage of Global Capacity***

Page 13: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Gross Margin Advantage

Potash: Gross Margin % of Net Revenue Nitrogen: Gross Margin % of Net Revenue

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 5-Year Average 15-Year Average

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 5-Year Average 15-Year Average

Potash Margins Support Premium Earnings Multiple

Slide#12

Percentage Percentage

Page 14: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

PotashCorp Gross Margin by Category

PotashCorp’s Portfolio is Directed to Higher Margin, Less Volatile Products

Nitrogen: Focused on Greater Stability

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%Industrial Fertilizer

Percentage of Five-year Average

Trinidad Augusta Geismar Lima0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Industrial Fertilizer

Thousand Tonnes Product – 2013

PotashCorp Sales by Nitrogen Plant

Slide#13

Page 15: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Optimize Delivered Cost Advantages; US Advantaged Position

Nitrogen: Advantaged Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Urea0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 POT Avg US Netback US Benchmark Price*• Geographic positioning and lower

transportation costs provide opportunity for higher average realized prices

• Proximity to corn belt allows for reduced freight costs on fertilizer sales

• Industrial ammonia production located near consumers, some via pipeline direct to customers

* Represents average Tampa Ammonia and NOLA Urea prices for 2013

Slide#14

US$ Per Tonne

Page 16: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

PotashCorp OCP** Mosaic* Agrium*0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Feed & Industrial Fertilizer

Source: Company Reports, CRU, PotashCorp

PotashCorp’s Product Mix Provides Flexibility and Enhances Stability

Phosphate: Diversified Product Offering

PotashCorp Gross Margin by Category

Feed & Industrial Fertilizer0%

500%

1000%

1500%

2000%

2500%

3000%

Percentage of Net Sales (2014 YTD)

Finished Product Mix

* Based on most recently reported 12-month sales volume totals as per publicly available data

** Estimate per CRU. Excludes phosphate rock sales

Percentage

Slide#15

Page 17: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

PotashCorp's Potential

Page 18: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

2013Cash Cost

2014 Cash Cost

Target

2016Cash Cost

Target

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Source: Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp

Potash: Improving OutlookPrices Strengthening in Spot Markets; Costs Trending Lower

Slide#17

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14250

300

350

400

450

500 Brazil CFR (US$/MT)US Midwest Del (US$/ST)SE Asia CFR (US$/MT)

US$ per tonne

Potash Price By Select Market PotashCorp Per Tonne Cash Cost of Goods Sold

US$ per tonne

* As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation); target assumes successful ramp-up of expansions at lower-cost facilities

Annualized improvement*:~$15-$20 per

tonne

Annualized improvement*:~$20-$30 per

tonne

Page 19: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Million Tonnes KCl

Matching Operational Capability with Expected Market Demand

Enhancing Our Competitive Position in Potash

Source: PotashCorp

2013 2014F 2015F 2016F0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Nameplate Capacity* Inventory

* Estimated capacity as per design specifications or completed Canpotex entitlement runs; does not necessarily represent operational capability.

** Estimated annual achievable production level at current staffing and operational readiness. Estimate does not include inventory-related shutdowns and unplanned downtime.

2014F 2015F 2016F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Rocanville New Brunswick

Incremental Capability** - Million Tonnes KCl

Slide#18

Page 20: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

49.2%

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp

Canpotex Entitlement Growth Expected to Support Sales Volumes Growth

Potash: Increasing Canpotex Entitlement

Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement

>53%

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

First-half 2014 Second-half 2014 (Estimate)*

Slide#19* Based on PotashCorp preliminary results.

Page 21: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Capacity*

New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential

Nitrogen: Focused Growth Initiatives

2012 2013 2016E0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar

Million Tonnes

* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year.

** Contributions based on 2013 per-tonne margins for anticipated capacity additions.

Augusta Expansion• Completed: 2012 (August)• Incremental Capacity: 70K MT• Incremental Gross Margin (2013): ~$15M

Geismar Expansion• Completed: 2013 (February)• Incremental Capacity: 500K MT• Incremental Gross Margin (2013): ~$100M

Lima Expansion• Anticipated Completion: 2015 (September)• Incremental Capacity:

• 100K MT (Ammonia)• 80K MT (Urea solution)

• Incremental Gross Margin (Potential)**: ~$40M

Slide#20

Page 22: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Focus on Efficiencies and Optimization of P2O5 Production Portfolio

Phosphate: Improving Cost Structure

Source: PotashCorp

2012 2013 2014F150

250

350

450

550US$ Per Product Tonne

Costs of Goods Sold

• Greater efficiency and improved procurement practices expected to reduce costs in 2014• Reduced workforce levels expected to improve

cost structure

• Mining efficiencies (course ore recovery in Aurora) to lower rock costs

• Optimizing sulfur sourcing points and freight terms to reduce delivered cost

• Lower ammonia prices and shifting sales mix away from more ammonia intensive fertilizer products

Slide#21

Page 23: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Creating Shareholder Value

Page 24: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

PotashCorp Total Capital Spending**

CAPEX Spending Largely Complete

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

93%

7%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*

US$ Billions

Slide#23

* As at March 31, 2014. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.

** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013)

Page 25: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

5 PercentShare Repurchase

ProgramAnnounced July 24, 2013 (up to $2 billion through August 1, 2014)

Authorized amount = ~43M shares

~70% 30%

Completed Remaining

Share Authorization Percentage Completion*

Slide#24

* As at May 15, 2014.

Page 26: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

Q4-

10**

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

Q2-13

Q3-13

Q4-13

Q1-14

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.03

$0.35

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share, adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

POT AGU MOS CF IPI0%

1%

2%

3%

4% 3.8%

3.3%

2.0%

1.7%

0.0%

Percent Yield*

* Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at May 15, 2014.

Dividend* per Share – US$

950% In

crease

Slide#25

Page 27: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

There’s more online:

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Facebook.com/PotashCorpFind us on Facebook

Twitter.com/PotashCorpFollow us on Twitter

Thank you

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Page 28: PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference, May 22, 2014

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