Postal Vision 2020The continuation of trends versus the likelihood of disruptive

elements

Harry Koorstra, CEO PostNL

September 2011

Looking into the future:a balance between trends and disruptions

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Growth of population over 5 years

Looking into the future:a balance between trends and disruptions

Growth population over 150 years

Agenda

Relevant trends for postal companies

Can portfolio choices shield postal companies from disruption?

How do postal companies react?

The trends as we see them … what’s new

Economic & social

� Low economic growth

� High public financial burdens

� Ageing population

� Increasing pension costs

Technology

� High penetration fast internet (infrastructure and use)

� Further development social media

� Technology companies replacing dominance banks and oil

� Continued focus on environmental issues

� Increasing regulation

Environment Digitisation

� Marginalization letter mail

� Intense restructuring

� Increase parcels volumes

� Postal USO: out of date

The trends and their consequences … what’s new

Financial

� Shortage of public money to finance postal operators

� Aim to reduce pension obligations

� Just historical arguments for public ownership

USO

� USO letter mail will become outdated

� Disappearance of regulatory burden

� Shift to Interest Group Policies

� USO � IGP

� High restructuring costs depending on

� Mail density

� Level of competition

� Towards a three days a week delivery system

Restructuring (New) Portfolio : choices

� Parcels

� Express

� Logistics

� Banking

� E-commerce

� Neighbourhood services

Agenda

Relevant trends for postal companies

Can portfolio choices shield postal companies from disruption?

How do postal companies react?

Common view: diversification works

Cathy Rogerson, IBM conference 2007

Common view: diversification works

Cathy Rogerson, IBM conference 2007

Portfolio development postal companies

� Source: IPC global postal industry report 2010

A balanced portfolio deals with a wide range of trends

MailParcels / Express

LogisticsFinancial services / Retail services

ShoreE-com-merce services

Neighbour-hood servi-ces

Increasing financial pressure

Increased digitisation

Postal regulation

Ageing population

Increased focus on cost efficiency

Negative Positive Neutral

Agenda

Relevant trends for postal companies

Can portfolio choices shield postal companies from disruption?

How do postal companies react?

Possible disruption scenario’s

� Economic decline and further credit squeeze

� Shareholders activism

� Regulation

� Political decision making

� Could lead to break up of portfolio's

� Forced sale of portfolio elements

� Break up of companies

� High costs to operators