Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy
description
Transcript of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Post-Tropical Cyclone SandyRain, Snow, and Inland Wind Impacts
David NovakJim Hoke, Wallace Hogsett, Mark Klein, Anthony Fracasso, Dan Petersen
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
24-03Z
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1000 Sandy's Evolution
JamaicaLandfall
Cuba Landfall
New Jersey Landfall
Symmetric Warm Core Asymmetric Warm Core Asymmetric Cold Core
Pres
sure
(mb) 973 mb
957 mb
946 mb
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Track
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Surface Analysis 7 day forecast
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS.
CONSIDERING THE WILDLY DIVERSE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…THAT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A SAFE BET.
CISCO
GEFS Member
ECMWF Member
CMC Member
ECMWF Mean
NAEFS Mean
GEFS Mean
GFS
ECMWF
558 DM Height
247 nm Displacement
Charts Valid 12Z October 29, 2012A Success for Ensembles and Forecasters
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Surface Analysis 7 day forecast 6 day forecast
THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK…
CISCO
247 nm Displacement 186 nm Displacement
558 DM HeightGEFS Member
ECMWF Member
CMC Member
ECMWF Mean
NAEFS Mean
GEFS Mean
GFS
ECMWF
Charts Valid 12Z October 29, 2012A Success for Ensembles and Forecasters
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Surface Analysis 7 day forecast 6 day forecast 5 day forecast
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS… ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX…
247 nm Displacement 186 nm Displacement 89 nm Displacement
GEFS Member
ECMWF Member
CMC Member
ECMWF Mean
NAEFS Mean
GEFS Mean
GFS
ECMWF
558 DM Height
Charts Valid 12Z October 29, 2012A Success for Ensembles and Forecasters
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Forecasters Used Ensemble Information for
Track Forecasts
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Low Track Forecast – 1.5 days prior to landfall
* Note the ensemble spread at each forecast time.
Storm accelerated towards New Jersey coast
• SREF uncertainty in acceleration of storm 36 hours before landfall
• Ensemble mean was very accurate (00 UTC landfall)
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Surface Analysis 7 day forecast 6 day forecast 5 day forecast
4 day forecast 3 day forecast 2 day forecast 1 day forecast
Charts Valid 12Z October 29, 2012A Success for Ensembles and Forecasters
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Inland Winds
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H1028
L940
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39 h Forecast SREF Max Wind Gust
Courtesty Peter Manousos (First Energy)
75+ mph
65 mph
Wind and Wave Forecasts
Issued Sunday Morning, Oct 28
18 h Forecast 1.33 km NAM
Wind Gust
Issued Monday Morning, Oct 28
77 kts
Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System
Issued Saturday Evening, Oct 27
19’
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Great Lakes Impacts
21.7’Second Highest
since 1980
14’
1-2’ Surge
1’ Surge
Wave Height Water Level Impacts
Lake
Mic
higa
nLa
ke E
rie
USCG
AP
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Rainfall
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Rainfall
16
5 Day Precipitation Forecast: Issued Friday morning, Oct 26
Very accurate rainfall forecasts
3 Day Precipitation Forecast: Issued Sunday morning, Oct 28
Observed Rainfall
Rainfall alleviated drought
Oct 23, 2012
D0-D4: 24% of area
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Rainfall
5 Day Precipitation Forecast: Issued Friday morning, Oct 26
Very accurate rainfall forecasts
3 Day Precipitation Forecast: Issued Sunday morning, Oct 28
Rainfall alleviated drought
Observed Rainfall
Oct 30, 2012
D0-D4: 12% of area
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Inland Flooding
Goose Creek
PotomacMonocacy
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Snowfall
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Snowfall7 Days Prior to Landfall:
“…BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION…”
CISCO
3 day Snow Total: Issued Sunday morning, Oct 28
30”+
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Have you ever seen this?!
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Sandy Snowfall
30”+
Snowshoe, WV
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Decision Support
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Coordinating the Message
• HPC QPF linked at NHC• Sandy-specific products highlighted
on HPC homepage• Internal: NOC, FEMA, Regions,
WFOs• External: Media (CNN, Univision,
ABC, etc.), Congressional visitors, etc.
National Weather ServiceHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Post-Tropical Cyclone SandySummary
•A historic event–Unusual track–Rare evolution–Historic impacts
•An accurate forecast–Heavy reliance on ensemble datasets–Accomplishment of the Weather Enterprise
•A coordinated message–The Weather Enterprise saved lives and property