Kuniyuki SHIDAKuniyuki SHIDA Regional Office for Asia and the SouthRegional Office for Asia and the South--West PacificWest Pacific

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

Tropical Cyclone “Nargis”Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone ““NargisNargis””

Warnings and Information issued by the Department of Warnings and Information issued by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar andMeteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar and

WMO Assistance

Life Span

Where

Affected Areas

Intensity

26th April – 3rd May, 2008

SW Bay, WC Bay & adjoining EC Bay

Ayeyerwady, Yangon &Bago Divisions,Mon & Kayin States

Severe Cyclonic Storm

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NARGIS's Track (27th April – 4th May, 2008)

Intensified toMaximum strength Category 5just before crossing

FORMATIVE STAGEor

THE BIRTH OF NARGIS

27/5/08 0600 UTC = 12:30 MST(27/4/06)

Nargis at its birth

10N

20N

90E 100E

01-May-2008 0030Z

NARGIS ON PROGRESSor

STRUCTURAL MATURING

SCS NARGIS

02-May-2008 0030Z

90E 100E

20N

10N

NEAR THE PEAKor

NARGIS’S CENTRE IS ABOUT TO CROSS

2/5/08 0730 UTC = 14:00 MST

02-May-2008 1000Z

15.0N

90.0

E

105.

0E

CROSSING STAGE

02-May-2008 1457Z

10N

20 N

90 E

100E

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om Department of Meteorology and HydrologyMyanmar,

31st ASEAN SCMG MEETING, Bangkok, Thailand, 8-10 April 2009

NARGIS- The Killer from the Sea

Dr. Tun Lwin

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No.(4) Serial (18) Date: 15-20 May 2008

Yangon Times

To save the people’s lives and to prevent from the loss of human lives, the lesson that everybody should learn is that early warning alone is not enough.

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Press Release

22 May 2008

Cyclone Warnings were sufficient:

Deaths inevitable.

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Affected population 11 millionsHouses Damaged 745764Deaths (human) 84000Missing (human) 54000Injured people 20000Death of cattle, bulls

buffaloes, household animals 155248 aboveArea covered by

salty sea water 72798 acresNational Sector Loss 3.3547 trillion kyatsPrivate Sector Loss 8.3800 trillion kyats

Mode of Data Acquisition and Storm Information

- WMO/ISDR Flash Appeal Project - Upgraded of GTS

-WMO/VCP PROJECT Affiliated PC-VSAT

donated by CMA, CHINA

-WMO/VCP PROJECT Affiliated FUYUNGCAST

Satellite Receiver

Donated by CMA,CHINA

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DMH has

3 Ph.d Degree holders15 Ph.d. candidates52 M.Sc Degree holders.> 100 Science Graduates> Hundreds Foreign Trained Technicians

Has own TV Weather News Mini-production Studio

Pride in the past, and Faith in the Future.

FIVE 24 x 7 STORM WATCH CENTRES ON NARGIS

1. Multi Hazard Early Warning Centre

2. National Meteorological Centre

3. Naypyitaw Meteorological Centre (Back up)

4. Mingalardon Aviation Forecasting Centre

5. All coastline observatories (Back up and

main present weather survellance on

NARGIS along Myanmar coastline)

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http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php jtwc(JTWC)http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm (IMD)http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm (TMD)http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.fcst.html (NCEP)http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?(JMA)http://en.allmetsat.com/images/afwa_igms_ir.php (MTSAT-India-China-Infrared)http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html(University of Wisconsin Madisan)http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/tracker/dynamic/200801B_P.html

Websites used in cyclone monitoring

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What will you do, if there is no modernized tools are available.What you can do is to do your best with available technology.

A survival kit for DMH.

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Worksheets of storm positioning

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Type of Warnings issued During the Storm

• Daily weather bulletin• Special Storm News• Four Stage warnings

• Pre-Cyclone watch• Cyclone Alert• Cyclone Warning• Post Landfall outlook

• Warnings for designated officials• Warnings for Port Authorities• Warnings for Aviation• Warnings for Navy

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• Number of storm alert bulletins, storm warnings issued by DMH

NMC Aviation

• 25-4-2008 Special News 2 2

• 26-4-2008 Special News 2 2

• 27-4-2008 Storm News 1 2

• 28-4-2008 Special Storm News 2 2

• 29-4-2008 Storm Alerts 3 2

• 30-4-2008 Storm Warnings 4 2

• 1- 5-2008 Storm Warnings 6 2

• 2- 5-2008 Storm warnings 7 2

• 3- 5-2008 Storm warnings 6 2

*Starting from the evening of 2nd May, special storm warnings with possible storm affected specific areas are issued hourly to all news media. National televisions televised all hourly news continuously in footnote rolling format without a break.

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omMode of Dissemination of Cyclone

Warnings• Telephone• Tele-fax • VHF• Emails

Port WirelessAFTN (Aviation)

WebsitesRadio/TV Print MediaMobile Phones

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Warnings were sent toNational Media (Newspapers, TVs(4 channels),

Radios (MRTV and City FM)NDMC (National Disaster Management Committee)NDRC (National Disaster Risk Committee)Prime Minister OfficeMinistry Defence (Central Head Quarters)Secretary of State OfficeNaval Head QuartersAir Force Head QuartersMinistry of TransportMinistry of Home AffairsMinistry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement.Chairman Office, Rakhine StateChairman Office, Ayeyarwady DivisionChairman Office, Yangon DivisionNaval Commander Office at HeingyiNGOs, UN Offices, other relevant organizationsLocal Authorities (Rakhine, AYeyarwady, Yangon)Four Phone line service for Public Information

Special Personal Contacts

- Many DG’s personal contacts to

Authorities including very senior officials

- Many UN Offices in Yangon

- Many Business communities

- Many Beach Resorts, Hotel Business Communities

- Others

2nd May, 2008

The PR of Myanmar with WMO

Invited the national newspaper reporters

to have a special report on the

severe threat imposed by NARGIS

For the General Public as well as to

all general audience on 1st May 2008.

It was published in all national newspaperson the morning of 2nd

May, 2008, 36 hours ahead of the storm landfall.

The storm is crossing Myanmar coastal areas In Ayeyarwady division

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omIn his message, the PR warned that

the storm could be disastrous, due

to heavy rain, violent winds and

storm surges. He also warned the

people that the cyclone is severe

and is heading towards the

Ayeyarwady Division and is

forecast to cross the coast within

36 hours.

He warned all communities to do

their best for all precautionary

measures. He also warned that

Yangon, the capital, could be faced

with heavy rains and strong winds,

The storm was about 450 miles awayfrom the coast when the PR made the

interview. The interview was made At around 4 p.m. on 1st May, 2008

Watch out for Storm Surges

along coastal areas

The storm is headingTowards Myanmar

The PR has also warned that there is also a high potential of inland flooding somewhere 15-40 miles away from the river mouthsalong the seven rivers in the Deltaic area.

That is the storyOne of the local resident

admitted that they knew the warning in 48 hours in advance. Since they have been living in the coastal areas throughout their lives, they feel that they are so familiar with the sea. Winds and seas are daily phenomena. However, due to the storm warning they did take some precautions- Just stay home and not to go work to sea. They admitted they never expected such an impact, even by the elders, who had been living in the area for more than 80-90 years.

Tropical Cyclone ProgrammeMISSION: To establish national and regionally coordinated systems to

ensure that the loss of life and damage caused by tropical cyclones are reduced to a minimum.

WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones

• Established in 1973

• For Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

• MembersBangladesh, India (RSMC tropical cyclones – New Delhi), Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand

• Technical Support Unit(TSU: Pakistan Meteorological Department)

• Coordinator: Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry

NARGIS:MEANING: FLOWER/ FEMALECOUNTRY OF ORIGIN: PAKISTANLANGUAGE OF ORIGIN: ARABIC

SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM = WITH EXCEEDINGLY LOW PRESSURE AT THE CENTRE

AND WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 150 mph

01B08 = THE FIRST STORM IN THE BAY OF BENGAL FOR THE YEAR 2008.

Month Storms formed in the Bay of Bengal

Storms which crossed Myanmar coast

JAN 16( 1%) 2( 2%)

FEB 3( 0%) 1( 1%)

MAR 8( 1%) ---

APR 32( 3%) 15( 19%)

MAY 89( 7%) 24( 30%)

JUN 111( 9%) 1( 1%)

JUL 180( 15%) ---

AUG 192( 15%) --

SEP 209( 17%) ---

OCT 190( 15%) 14( 18%)

NOV 141( 11%) 14( 18%)

DEC 77( 6%) 9( 11%)

Total 1248(100%) 80(100%)

Total 10.49 0.66

Total Number of storms (%) formed in the Bay of Bengal and that had crossed Myanmar coast during the period 1887 to 2005

MAY IS ONE OF THE STORM

MONTHFOR MYANMAR

WITH POSSIBILITYOF 30% CHANCE

OF LAND CROSSING.

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Thanks to our solely devoted meteorologistsSaya U Thu Ta and U San Kyaw

for their invaluable works

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Peak Surge height “h” in meter can be estimated by –

(i) Analytical Method

(ii) Empirical (P. K. Das, 1974) method

(iii) Empirical (Lwin, 1980) method

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SCS ”NARGIS”01B08 was a very peculiar. Due to the influence of SCS NARGIS, the death toll of NARGIS was the highest in the historical record of Myanmar.

The Element of Hazard are of significant as (1) At its severe stage while crossing the southern Ayeyarwady(2) Moving straight Eastwards along the coastline.(3) On landfall NARGIS was almost stationary for about four hours. (4) The system is phenomenal in the sense that the intensity

and track had never experienced before for the Deltaic area.

WHY NARGIS HAD BECOME PHENOMENAL ?WHY NARGIS HAD BECOME PHENOMENAL ?

DELTAIC- A GLASS HOUSE OF MYANMAR

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The Elements of Vulnerability of the area are also high due to(1) very low lying area.(2) most populous area of the country (3) many tributaries in Deltaic areas (seven river mouths)(4) No storm shelters and high ground(5) No hazard maps and risk assessment had done yet(6) No past experience and extremely hard to convince local people(7) Risk knowledge on the disaster especially on storm surge

is very low(8) Poor mobility, mostly waterways along small canals by boats(9) The non-linear interactions between the wind induced waves

and the topography and high tides of the area is extremely high.

(10) The cutting off of mangrove trees.

DELTAIC- A GLASS HOUSE OF MYANMAR

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Intensity of Hazard = high

Potential of Vulnerability = very high

Level of Disaster = Extremely High

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A STORM OF SAME INTENSITY

WILL PRODUCE TWICE THE

HEIGHT OF STORM SURGE

WAVES ALONG THE

DELTAIC COAST THAN THE

RAKHINE COAST.

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Evacuation Works- Evacuations works were able to do at some extent.- All airplanes owned by the Government, the international airlines, foreign

companies were moved to a safer place from the Mingaladon Airport 36 hours ahead. No damage was found.

- All visitors, tourists, and many local people from Chaungtha and Ngwe Saung Beach Resorts were removed from the area 48 hours ahead.

- All 50 groups of UN workers who were undertaking their respective works in the area were removed from their area of assignment in the storm strike area before the storm made the landfalls and all were saved. (UNDP report)

- The commander in-charge of the Heingyi Naval Base had sent SMS messages received from DMH to all 300 mobile users regularly till the centre was about 14 miles away from the coast.

-Many local people admitted that they know the warning 48 hours in advance They thought that they stayed at home and not going out to sea for work was enough for storm preparedness.

- Many victims admitted that they never expect such a force of impact.

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All aircrafts from Mingaladon Airport and Hmawbi air ForceAircrafts were removed to the north one day in advance.NOT A SINGLE AIRCRAFTS WAS AFFECTED

All staff working in NGOs, INGOS under UNDP office were called back from their stations located in the Deltaic Rgion back to Yangon in advance.NOT A SINGLE STAFF WAS AFFECTED

All visitors staying in Chaungtha and Ngwe Saung HotelsAnd Resorts were forced to check-out by authorities in advance.NOT A SINGLE CUSTOMER WAS AFFECTED

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Delegates from the WMO,

Switzerland

Upgrading the DMH Service

Delegates from the WMO, JICASwitzerland

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….Despite theirCapacity constraints,

DMH performed exceedingly

Well…..

The staff of DMH is Highly motivated

and dedicatedDespite the limited

InfrastructureOf DMH.

Key findings and recommendations of the WMO mission

N o. Date Time

(MST)

Strong wind (mph)

Affected area General remarks

1

2

3

4

5

1-5-2008

1-5-2008

2-5-2008

2-5-2008

3-5-2008

08:30

16:30

06:30

10:0012:3014:30Morning

-

65-8075-150

90-120

110-135125-150

50-6070120100-130At times15070-80

near center

near center

near center

Hai Gyi Island

Southern Ayeyarwady &Yangon DivisionsBago & Hinthada

-(420) miles SW of Gwa as S.C.S NARGIS.

-(340) miles WSW of Gwa

-(210)miles SW of Pathein

Crossing the Island

Early morning to after noon( about 12 hours)

Observed of strong windsObserved of strong winds

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om Seminar at WMO Head Quarter,Geneva, Switzerland

Upgrading the DMH Service

WMO Action following Cyclone Nargis

•WMO Emergency Assessment Mission Yangon,15-18 May 2008

•Meeting with Director-General of DMHGeneva, 20 May 2008

•Appeal to WMO Members and aid agencies25 May 2008- Immediate priority requirements: support by China and Japan- Short- to medium-term priority requirements- Longer-term development needs

•WMO Fact-finding Mission with UNESCAP and PTC experts 9-13 February 2009

WMO network provided timely cyclone alerts to Myanmar, needs resources for improving storm-

surge warnings (Press Conf: 7 May 2008)

WMO Action following Cyclone Nargis (continued)

WMO news (website) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis in the Bay of Bengal (posted on 29 April) WMO team to Myanmar (posted on 13 May) Storm-surge warning and response mechanisms—urgent support needed (posted on 22 May)

Press

conferences for international mediaWMO NETWORK PROVIDED TIMELY CYCLONE ALERTS TO MYANMAR, NEEDS RESOURCES FOR IMPROVING STORM SURGE WARNINGS (7 May)URGENT SUPPORT NEED FOR STORM-SURGE WARNING AND RESPONSE MECANISMS (21 May)

WMO mission to Myanmar 15-18 May 2008, Yangon

• To assess damage to meteorological infrastructure and develop a strategy for the restoration of operational meteorological infrastructure and for enhancing the provision of meteorological information and services to support relief and restoring operations

• Several meetings with the Director-General, Deputy Director-General and senior staff of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)

• A coordination meeting with national authorities and international organizations

• Meetings with UNDP, the of Embassy of Japan and the JICA

WMO Emergency Assessment Mission to Myanmar Yangon,15-18 May 2008

•

Restoration of damaged hydro-meteorological equipment, and installation of an upper-air observing system and a radar(s);

•

Strengthening of a data-processing and forecasting system

including numerical storm surge prediction and storm-induced flood forecasting;

•

Enhancement of the public weather services for national authorities and general public, and for international community;

•

Human resources development for DMH staff;

•

Provision of back-up electric power supply for minimum operational services under all circumstances

Key findings and recommendations

•

Emergency assistance for immediate priority requirements: equipment and training (storm surge model)

•

WMO input to the ISDR-consolidated UNOCHA Flash Appeal for longer-term development needs;

•

Further evaluation and realization of external funding opportunities (JICA, USAID, UNESCAP, ASEAN, etc.);

•

Second WMO mission to Myanmar with UNESCAP and PTC;

•

A workshop to assess the timeliness and usefulness of products and information provided by DMH to national authorities and international organizations and further review requirements

Meeting with DG of DMH, Myanmar Geneva, 20 May 2008

Key actions proposed

Submission of a WMO/IOC/UNESCAP joint proposal to the OCHA Flash Appeal (10 June 2008)

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (Lead agency: ISDR) - USD $8,050,000• Re-build essential capabilities and technical capacities of DMH for

observing and monitoring networks (2.2M USD) (WMO, UNESCO-IOC);• Provide technical communication infrastructure and extended training for

the production and effective dissemination of warnings (1.5M USD) (WMO & UNESCO-IOC, ADPC);

• Strengthen/develop effective coordination mechanisms between DMH and the RSMC New Delhi in support of humanitarian contingency planning, response and relief operations; (0.1M USD) (WMO, RSMC New Delhi);

• Develop high resolution coastal bathymetric mapping to improve coastal hazards modeling; (1.5 M USD) (UNESCO-IOC);

• Develop inundation and wind damage maps; (0.5M USD) (UNESCO-IOC, WMO) • Prepare hazard resilient zoning plans for particular vulnerable coastal areas

(0.5M USD) (UNESCO-IOC, WMO);• Provide technical advice and training (1.0M USD) (UNESCO-IOC, WMO,).• Develop Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) including coastal marine

hazards (e.g., storm surges, and river flooding. (0.5M USD) (UN ESCAP, UNESCO-IOC, WMO);

• Addressing last mile issues from township to community levels (0.25M USD)(ADPC) .

WMO Fact-finding Mission 9-13 February 2009

Purposes

WMO FactWMO Fact--finding Missionfinding Mission 99--13 February 200913 February 2009

PurposesPurposes

Detailed assessment of DMH actions following Nargis and needs for priority activities for capacity development; Guidance provided to PR of Myanmar in working with the government authorities in development of effective early warning systems to minimize impacts of future cyclones(cyclone and storm surge forecasting and warning); Implementation of some key/priority proposed assistance (e.g., installation of priority equipment; demonstration of storm surgemodels and training);Familiarization of DMH staff with WMO/ESCAP/PTC activities and potential opportunities for capacity development; and Formulation of recommendations to PR of Myanmar on the enhancement of DMH meteorological and hydrological activities

• Mission team (WMO, India, Pakistan, Thailand) with collaborating regional organization (ESCAP)

Workshop with Stakeholders: 9 & 10 February 200920 from DMH, 9 from 6 UN/NGOs, 28 from 25 organizations;7 mission members (64)(12 presentations by stakeholders)Coordination Meetings: 11 & 13 February 2009Consideration of EWS; recommendations and Action Plan

PC-based numerical storm surge prediction modelsIntroduction, installation and training (IIT, TMD models) 12 February 2009

Mg with Minister for Transport: 12 February 2009Appreciation for WMO assistanceCommitment to pay attention and support to DMH proposals

Mission Programme

WMO Fact-finding Mission Outcomes

WMO FactWMO Fact--finding Missionfinding Mission OutcomesOutcomes

• Greater awareness of WMO/ESCAP, DMH and other organizations’ roles

• Better understanding of the status of DMH operation and services, problems and requirements

• Coordinated proposals/recommendations on ways to assist DMH for enhancing national and regional services

(effective services for an end-to-end sustainable early warning system of Myanmar against cyclone-related hazards with the primary focus on storm surge);

• Human resources development in tropical cyclone and storm surge forecast

• Further collaboration with partners

An electric generator

(at Multi-hazard Early Warning

Centre in NayPyiTaw: Jan. 2009)

2 PCs for storm surge

modelling (Dec. 2008)

20 sets of thermometers,

Soil thermometers, 2 PCs

by China (VCP) (on-going)

40 HF transceivers (SSB) by Mitsubishi: Feb 2009

PC donation by Marine meteorological Centre, Thailand

Internet connection upgrade (on-going)

Assistance provided in 2008-

A new fellow for MSc Meteorology Courseat the University of the Philippines from 04/11/08 to 31/10/10 (Ms Thet Hatr Su Hlaing)

UKMO/WMO Aviation Seminar from 5 to 9 July 2008 in OmanFifth Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting in December 2008 in MelbourneTraining attachment to IIT under the Tropical Cyclone Programme

ECMWF annual training event in October 2008Coordination and Capacity Building Workshop for LDCs in RA II/V,Port Vila, Vanuatu, 6-9 October 2008Storm surge training during the mission

Training Opportunities provided

Recommendations and Action Plan:

• Reliable Satellite-based broadband Internet connectivity at NMC Yangon, Aviation Met Office

Highest Priority, Top Urgent WMO EAF

• Duplicated GTS connectivity at NMC & NayPiyTaw

INSAT-MDD (in NayPiyTaw) Highest Priority, Top Urgent

WMO VCP or EAF to be supported by IMD, India

• GTS link to NayPiyTaw

and Yangon IA Aviation Met Office (Mingaladon) Medium Priority, Medium-term

Expert services for sharing GTS data in Yangon NMC

• Aviation products collection for aviation servicesHighest Priority, Urgent Internet connection

Communications

Recommendations and Action Plan:• Ensured satellite picture information at NMC

High Priority, Urgent MTSAT direct receiving system

• Ensured dissemination to Gov./local authoritiesHigh Priority, Urgent

Modem for dissemination of SMS for CDMA and GSM mobile systemsOther solutions to be studied

• Ensured dissemination to the end-usersHighest Priority, Medium

Develop a RANET project with DMH to establish a RANET information system for effective dissemination of information tocommunities in rural areas

Communications (2)

Recommendations and Action Plan:• Improvement of observations/monitoring

High Priority, Longer-termWeather radar: radar expert servicesInstruments for synoptic stations + AWSs

VCP(F) for expert services; JICA for Radar; Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP)

Observing systems

Recommendations and Action Plan:• Storm surge guidance from RSMC New Delhi

to DMHHighest Priority, UrgentInclude storm surge into TC Operational Plan at PTC-36 in Oman

• Establish direct contact arrangements with RSMC New Delhi and TMDHighest Priority, Urgent

Institutional Arrangements

Recommendations and Action Plan:• MSc Education in Meteorology

High Priority, UrgentNew Fellowship application: MSc Meteorology Courseat the University of the Philippines from 2009-2011

• Special training for Cyclone forecaster in MyanmarHigh Priority, Medium-term

Special training opportunity to DMH (2 weeks)Priority to WMO/TCP Cyclone forecaster training

• Expert Services for training in: GTS and for sharing GTS (H, U); and GIS Applications (H, M)

• DG’s

visits to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand (NMHS & NDMO, etc.) (H, M)

New fellows and training

• International Training Course on Multi-Hazard Early Warning (Nanjing RTC, China, 8 - 26 June 2009) for Weather forecasters and those who are working in the field of

research, management or training concerning multi-hazard early warning

Training opportunities in 2009

(a)

To coordinate activities on storm surge with those recommended earlier on cyclone EWS, including the proposed framework for enhanced cooperation with RSMC;

(b)

To build on the global initiative of WMO on “Storm Surge Watch Scheme”;

(c)

To continue strengthening efforts of PTC for capacity building of DMH through ongoing efforts of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), recent cooperation initiatives of TMD through its Marine Meteorological Centre (TMD-MMC), and any other activities organized by WMO programmes for the region; and

(d)

To intensify the capacity building efforts through IIT and TMD-

MMC to build up a knowledge base for more effective EWS on storm surge under severe conditions of no electricity and/or no computer.

Strategyto enhance capability of DMH and PTC Members on Storm surge

forecasting for end-to-end sustainable EWS

Thank you!Thank you!TerimaTerima KasihKasih!!