POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK Barry Edmonston Population Resource Group University of Victoria.
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Transcript of POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK Barry Edmonston Population Resource Group University of Victoria.
POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK
Barry EdmonstonPopulation Resource GroupUniversity of Victoria
IMMIGRATION FLOWS
About 250,000 annual immigrants to Canada Most settle in three large metropolitan areas Rapidity, size, and concentration of the in-
flow Relatively few immigrants in other places,
especially smaller towns and rural areas Nevertheless, immigrants can have large
effects for smaller populations and there are recent program to encourage settlement in new destinations
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION Interprovincial migration is large: about
500,000 people migrate annually, and more than 2 million persons change their province of residence over a five-year period
For Atlantic provinces, these flows are usually larger than international migration
In recent years, large flows into Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario
REPERCUSSIONS OF LOW FERTILITY Because of low childbearing levels,
migration has become the major demographic force affecting local population growth
Communities and provinces will experience population decreases in the absence of counterbalancing in-migration
Understandable that municipalities and provinces are interested in programs to reduce out-migration and to promote in-migration
TODAY’S PRESENTATION
Components of population change in New Brunswick
Alternative population futures for New Brunswick
Recent migration flows in New Brunswick
New immigrant destinations in Canada
UNPEELING THE POPULATION ONION What factors affect population change
in New Brunswick? Let’s examine births, death,
international migration, and interprovincial migration trends for the past fifteen years
After looking at annual components of change, let’s look at the relative effects on long-term population growth
POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
742
744
746
748
750
752
754
1991 2001 2005Year
Popu
latio
n in
1000
s
ANNUAL NATURAL INCREASE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
1991
2001
2005
Year
Annu
al Ch
ange
BirthsDeathsNat Incr
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
-3500-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000-500
0500
10001500
1991 2001 2005
Year
Annu
al Ch
ange
DomesticInternationalOverall
ANNUAL CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
-4000-3000-2000-1000
010002000300040005000
1991 2001 2005
Year
Annu
al Ch
ange
Nat IncrNet MigOverall
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR NEW BRUNSWICK’S POPULATION It is hard to see the future when we are in
the midst of a changing population Current New Brunswick population is
greatly affected by current age structure and the age distribution of migrants arriving and leaving
A useful model is to, first, imagine what New Brunswick’s population would be with replacement-level fertility and no net migration
BASIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005 Population is 752,000 and slowly
decreasing Births=6,880 (with TFR=1.4 children) Deaths=6,561 So, annual natural increase is +300, but
will decrease steadily in future years and staying negative as long as below replacement-level fertility prevails
MIGRATION COMPONENTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005 Immigrants=1,330 Emigrants=-300 So, net immigration is 1,030 In-migrants from other provinces=10,950 Out-migrants to other provinces=12,600 So, net interprovincial migration is -1,650 And, overall net migration is -650
COMPARISON OF CURRENT CHANGES FOR LONG-TERM POPULATION FUTURE If there were replacement-level fertility
(about 10,200 births instead of current 6,900), New Brunswick’s population would stabilize at 702,000, or about 50,000 few people than in 2005
How much does current fertility and current migration affect this long-term population level of 702,000?
CONTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS AND MIGRATION TO LONG-TERM POPULATION LEVEL OF 702,000 Current births: -9,100 International Migration, Immigration: +2,100 Emigration: -300 Domestic Migration, In-Migration: +15,100 Out-Migration: -17,800 Overall effect of Migration: -900 This tells us that long-term population is
declining by -10,000 (-9,100 and -900) each year current birth and migration levels continue
FEMALE AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Age
Per
cent
of T
otal
Pop
ulat
ion
Current No Migration Current Migration Replacement Migration
DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIONS ARE LIMITED In the context of current demographic
changes, the basic options are narrow: increase births by 48% to 10,200 per year or increase in-migration by 60% to about 20,000 per year
The current changes and options have important effects on New Brunswick’s future age distribution as well
Can fertility or migration be affected (practically, effectively, at low cost)?
WHO COMES: IMMIGRANT NUMBERS In recent years, the annual number of
immigrant arrivals in the Atlantic Provinces has varied between 2,800 and 5,000
The largest share of immigrants have settled in Nova Scotia
In order to compare provinces, it is useful to calculate the number of immigrant arrivals relative to population size
IMMIGRANT ARRIVAL RATES FOR CANADA, 2002
CanadaNewfoundland
PEINova Scotia
New BrunswickQuebecOntario
ManitobaSaskatchewan
AlbertaBritish Columbia
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
711
21
511
42
58
Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents
MIGRATION IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES Trends for 1996 to 2001 for: (i) Canada-
born residents (ii) resident immigrants who were in Canada in 1996 and (iii) immigrant arrivals who arrived in Canada between 1996 and 2001
We look at five groups: (i) children and youth (ii) post-secondary students (iii) non-working adults (iv) working adults and (v) retirees
NATIVITY OF MIGRANTS
Useful to examine three groups Canada-born residents who move
interprovincially Resident immigrants who were in Canada
five years ago and move interprovincially Immigrants arrivals during the past five
years and who make their initial provincial settlement (they might move later, of course)
MIGRANT TYPES
Migrants move for different reasons, with many moving primarily for employment.
Consider five types: Children less than 18 years Post-secondary students, 18 to 25 years and
attending school full-time Non-working adults, 18 to 64 years and not
working Working adults, 18+ years and working Retirees, 65+ years and not working
MIGRANTS IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES: 1996-2001
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland
Total
InOutNet
NATIVITY VARIATONS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Immigrant Arrivals
Resident Immigrants
Canada-Born Residents
Total
InOutNet
TYPES OF MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Retirees
Working Adults
Non-Working Adults
Post-Secondary Students
Children
Total
InOutNet
CANADA-BORN MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Retirees
Working Adults
Non-Working Adults
Post-Secondary Students
Children
Total
InOutNet
RESIDENT IMMIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Retirees
Working Adults
Non-Working Adults
Post-Secondary Students
Children
Total
InOutNet
IMMIGRANT ARRIVALS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Retirees
Working Adults
Non-Working Adults
Post-Secondary Students
Children
Total
InOutNet
BROADER CONTEXT FOR MIGRATION Immigrants constitute almost one-fifth of
the Canadian population but are less common in small towns and rural areas
There has been a continued out-migration of younger adults from smaller towns and rural areas across Canada
Provinces with more people in smaller towns and rural areas are more likely to experience out-migration
THEORIES ABOUT WHERE MIGRANTS SETTLE Urbanization is worldwide: a defining
aspect of migration is that it is often from rural to urban areas
Many factors influence choice of settlement destinations, including economic, social, and cultural factors
Two types of settlement processes: persistence of established locations and emergence of new locations for migrants
PERSISTENCE OF ESTABLISHED LOCATIONS Over time, migrants develop social
networks that provide relationships for movement
Migrants from a particular ethnic background develop ethnic-based resources
Local communities respond to migrant flows in ways that assist the continued arrival of newcomers
Once migration is established, continued migration usually persists for established migrant groups
NEW LOCATIONS FOR MIGRANTS New locations challenge the persistence
perspective…why do they arise? New or unusually rapid employment growth New employment sectors that recruit
workers Centralization of employment, such as
meatpacking, in areas with limited workers Sponsorship or deliberate recruitment of
newcomers
IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT AND RESETTLEMENT Migration is closely tied to local economic
growth and employment opportunities Whether economic development or
population growth comes first is a debatable point
However, a community’s success in generating employment growth will ultimately determine the effect on migration – for both Canada-born and immigrants
CANADA’S IMMIGRANT DESTINATIONS, 2002
Canada
Newfoundland
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Ontario
0 5 10 15 20 25Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents
RuralSmallerTownsLargerCitiesOverall
TOP TEN SMALL TOWNS RECEIVING IMMIGRANTS
Winkler, MBLethbridge, AB
Fort McMurray, ABSteinbach, MB
Lac du Bonnet, MBCanmore, AB
Prince George, BCSquamish, BC
Minnedosa, MBGimli, MB
0 5 10 15 20Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents
IMMIGRATION TO SMALL TOWNS 7 communities have strong
employment growth; some in only one industry
Remaining 3 communities have diversified, growing employment
Manitoba nominee program is important
Several of the communities have immigrant recruitment programs and work hard to attract newcomers
CONCLUDING COMMENTS
Low fertilility in New Brunswick poses population challenges for next decade
Immigrant arrivals in small towns suggests that new destinations for immigrants can be developed
Employment, community programs, and provincial immigration selection policies can create new immigration destinations
Chicken or the egg: jobs and migrants
THAT’S ALL FOLKS!