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Pollenizer for Ateneo De Manila University (10 Dec 2013)
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Harder Better Stronger Faster The extreme pace of disruption and how to survive it
The classifieds business
Whole industries collapsing and forming.
Where Fairfax once stood...
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Seek
Fairfax$7B > $1.5B
Carsales
Disruption is accelerating
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
The innovation lifecycle is getting shorter.
Innovations have a larger impact.
Time
Imp
act
Music
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Humans LOVE music and as technology allows it, we engage with it the way WE want to.
Live
Radio
Vinyl
CD
iTun
es
Spotify
So
un
dcl
ou
d
Time
Imp
act
TV
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Once simple to describe as “TV” is fragmenting into thousands of digital channels.
Cinem
a
Broadcast
Cable
DVD
Yo
uT
ub
e, e
tc
Time
Imp
act
What is a ‘media company’ anyway?
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
The whole idea of a ‘media company’ is fragmenting. Look how big Upworthy grew in 2 years but how long will it last?
Insta-company
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
~$40M
13 months
12x returnto angel investors
Centurians: Some $100M AsiaPac startups
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Big companies are emerging fast
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Facebook is only 9 years old and is worth more than $100B.
It took HP 47 years to break $1B.
Companies are bigger than ever
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Big companies in less than 10 yearsSpreets in 9 months
Wow, look at the difference between News Corp and Apple!
But nothing lasts forever
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
“I hate Facebook”
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
“It’s just so boring” Business Insider - Ignition 2013 - Teen Panel
Short Fuse Big Bang
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Deloitte’s study on Australia shows sectors which will have the biggest change in the shortest time.
The Innovator’s Dilemma
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Clayton Christensen showed us how disruptive innovation comes from no-where to attack incumbents defending a sustaining business model.
Time
Imp
act
The Innovator’s Dilemma
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
As time goes on…
Entropy is faster. More companies explode through disruptive curve.
And more are failing.
It’s all happening faster
Time
Imp
act
Startup Scene
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
In Sydney, Australia alone.
Catalyst Count Created companies
Accelerators/Incubators 6 60+
Hackathons 20+ 200+
We’re making lots and lots of companies and 95% of them don’t survive to Series A capital raising.
Fertile Conditions
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Technological changes, economic changes, cultural changes strengthen each other
Technology: empowering
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
We can build fast.
So much is assembling existing parts. Tools + data
We can reach lots of people
3 billion people online so far
We don’t need deep pockets
Free tools, commoditised
bandwidth, super networks
CostReachComponents
Economics: growing and moving
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Half the world now online, Asia becoming the economic centre of gravity.
Culture: The edge is in charge
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
It is a p2p web and consumers trust each other, more than companies.
Companies don’t have the control they once had.
Defending a sustaining innovation is no longer a survival strategy
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Business models are becoming temporary and fluid.
Time
Imp
act
How can companies survive thrive?
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
1. Manufacture business models
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
“21st century corporate survival requires companies to continually create a new set of businesses by inventing new business models.”
David Butler - VP Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Coca-Cola
Time
Imp
act
Startup practice can get a bunch of prototype businesses to the ‘foothills’.
2. Learn. Fast
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
There is no time to over-think.
Startup “Moneyball” to out-learn the competition.
Count customer interviews, hypotheses tested, hypotheses failed, mentor meetings. #learned
3. Foster entrepreneurial people
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
The vital last 1% through emotional labour.
Pollenizer: a startup studio
We’ve learned the hard way through investing our own money into more than 20 startups.
Startup science
Build Measure
Learn
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Startups have created a management discipline that works
in a big company as well as a garage
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
A startup is a temporary state, learning what it is and who it is for
Search Execute
Startups do this Companies do this
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Webvan failed to learn
● Raised $800 million and flamed out in 24 months.
● It failed to ask who it’s customer was and prove it before investing in growth.
● It failed to learn.
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Color failed to learn
● Beautiful, incomplete product● No business model● $41M capital● All over in under 1 year● It failed to learn
How Color prematurely
scaled
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
What lean startups do
The true product of an entrepreneur is not the solution, but a working business model.
The real job of an entrepreneur is to systematically de-risk that business model over time.
Ash Maurya / Spark59
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
This is a helpful idea for big companies
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Big companies do this...
Requirements
Build
Launch
Maintain
Design
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
What happens if this bit is wrong?
Requirements
Build
Launch
Maintain
Design
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Startups do this...
Build Measure
Product
DataIdeas
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Learn
We call it ‘validated learning’
Build Measure
Learn
Product
DataIdeas
“Startups that succeed are those that iterate enough times before running out of
resources” Eric Ries
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Balancing intuition and scientific method
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
The startup lifecycle
The Marmer Stages
1. DiscoveryProblem Solution Fit
2. ValidationProduct Market Fit
3. EfficiencyReady to scale
Skip a stage, and the chances are your startup will fail
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
Evidence
Over 30,000 startups studied for patterns of success and failure
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle
The most common cause of
failure is self destruction through premature scaling
No startup that scaled prematurely reached 100,000 users
Few startup that scaled prematurely reached $100,000 monthly revenue
Startups that develop consistently grow 20X faster
This has an impact on valuation
What’s your next move?
Phil Morle | CEO | @philmorle