POL 168 POL 168 Chican@/Latin@ PoliticsChican@/Latin@ Politics

Professor JonesProfessor JonesDept. of Political ScienceDept. of Political Science

UC-DavisUC-DavisSummer 2009Summer 2009

Demographics and PoliticsDemographics and Politics

• Let’s segue into demographics by thinking about the recent presidential election.

• Tom Tancredo ads were highly controversial…

• …this despite his failure to gain any traction in the 2008 GOP contest.

• View some ads then discuss

Images: TancredoImages: Tancredo

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zng6I74L5QY&feature=related

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBK7bWh1m04&NR=1

• http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=TeamTancredo

DiscussionDiscussion

• Major Themes? • Who is the intended audience? • Would you call that “race-baiting”? • Was a major issue among voters• …especially Republican voters in the 08

primaries.• http://youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI• Leading issue in South Carolina• South Carolina

Census Data…Census Data…

• South Carolina

• http://www.censusscope.org/us/s45/chart_race.html

Who are “Latinos”? Who are “Latinos”?

• What counts as “Latino”…as “Hispanic”• The problem of “Spanish Origin” • 22 Countries satisfy this condition• Is it fair to say that anyone from one of these 22

countries is “just like” anyone from another of these 22 countries.

• How should we view “Latinos”• A bloc? Monolithic interests? • Pan-ethnicity vs. Groups

Counting Latin@sCounting Latin@s

• Census Enumeration– First systematic effort was in 1970– The “ethnicity” item: Spanish Origin?– Implication: 22 countries constitute Spanish

origin.– But, anyone can claim Hispanic identity.

• 2000 Census marked major change– Multiple races could be checked.

• What does the Census form look like?

How do we know what we know?How do we know what we know?Census 2000 Question on Hispanic/ Latino Origin

How do we know what we know?How do we know what we know?

Census 2000 Question on Race

Hispanic Population by Race: 2000

Race Number PercentTotal 35,305,818

One race 33,081,736 93.7White 16,907,852 47.9Black or African

American 710,353 2.0American Indian &

Alaska Native 407,073 1.2Asian 119,829 0.3Native Hawaiian &

Other Pacific Islander 45,326 0.1Some other race 14,891,303 42.2

Two or more races 2,224,082 6.3

What?What?

• It is clear the demarcation between race and ethnicity is far from clear.

• 42 percent of “Hispanic origin” claim “other” as race.

• The boundaries are fuzzy. • Note also that Census bureau demarcates

different kinds of groups…• But typically provides data aggregated over the

groups• i.e. “Hispanics”

Population ChangePopulation Change

• Important for you to understand massive shift in population characteristics taking place in US

• We measure this best with Census data.

• Useful to look at some data.

• …and put it in context.

U.S. Population Growth: U.S. Population Growth: 19901990-- 20002000

32.7

1312.9

58

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Growth (in millions) Percent change

U.S. Population U.S.Hispanic Population

Census 2000: Top 10 States By Census 2000: Top 10 States By Percent HispanicPercent Hispanic

12.3

13.3

15.1

16.8

17.1

19.7

25.3

32.0

32.4

42.1

Percent of total population

New MexicoCaliforniaTexasArizonaNevadaColoradoFloridaNew YorkNew JerseyIllinois

Census 2000: Top 10 States By Census 2000: Top 10 States By Hispanic Percent ChangeHispanic Percent Change

155

166

173

208

211

217

278

300

337

394

Percent change

N. CarolinaArkansasGeorgiaTennesseeNevadaS. CarolinaAlabamaKentuckyMinnesotaNebraska

Take-away points?Take-away points?

• Southern Exposure

• Contact Probabilities much higher…

• Even if overall population levels are low.

• Implications for these big changes?

• Understand that the population increases are not solely from a single country.

Who are “Latinos”?Who are “Latinos”?

• Where are “Latinos” from?

• “Border Invasion”

• Implies the population is largely of Mexican descent.

• In fact, it is…

• However, substantial populations exist from Central and Latin American nations.

• Some Data

Percent Distribution of the Percent Distribution of the Hispanic Population by Type: 2000Hispanic Population by Type: 2000

Puerto Rican

Cuban

Mexican

All OtherHispanicCentral American

Spaniard

South American

Hispanic Population by Hispanic Population by Type: 2000Type: 2000

Central American 1,686,937Costa Rican 68,588

Guatemalan 372,487

Honduran 217,569

Nicaraguan 177,684

Panamanian 91,723

Salvadoran 655,165

Other Central American 103,721

Hispanic Population by Type: 2000Hispanic Population by Type: 2000

South American 1,353,562Argentinean 100,864

Bolivian 42,068

Chilean 68,849

Colombian 470,684

Ecuadorian 260,559

Paraguayan 8,769

Peruvian 233,926

Uruguayan 18,804

Venezuelan 91,507

Other Central American 57,532

Current Estimates and ProjectionsCurrent Estimates and Projections

• U.S. Population will be “majority-minority” by about 2050.

• Largest growth rate among minority populations are “Hispanic origin”

• Remember, we’re tied to Census definitions here.

• What will it mean to be a “minority” in the future? • “Minority” status becoming more and more

awkward in some local settings.

Ten Places with Highest Percent Ten Places with Highest Percent Hispanic: 2000Hispanic: 2000

East Los Angeles, CA 97%Laredo, TX 94%Brownsville, TX 91%Hialeah, FL 90%McAllen, TX 80%El Paso, TX 77%Santa Ana, CA 76%El Monte, CA 72%Oxnard, CA 66%Miami, Fl 66%

Predicted Population of US

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Per

cen

t o

f T

ota

l P

op

.

White Alone Black Alone Asian Alone

Hispanic (of any race) White, non-Hispanic All other races

Population Estimates: US Census BureauPopulation Estimates: US Census Bureau

More Clips for Thought from the More Clips for Thought from the 2008 Primary Season2008 Primary Season

• Ron Paul: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-iJKwskH4

• Bi-Partisan Attack Ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qiw85f5fYGY

Percent Distribution of HispanicsPercent Distribution of Hispanicsby Type: 2006by Type: 2006

Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

Puerto Rican8.6% Cuban

3.7%

Central American8.2%

South American6.0%

Other Hispanic8.0%

Mexican65.5%

Hispanic Population by Type: 2006Hispanic Population by Type: 2006

43.2

28.3

3.71.6

3.5 2.6 3.4

Hispanic Mexican PuertoRico

Cuban CentralAmerican

SouthAmerican

OtherHispanic

Mill

ion

s

Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

Nativity by Type of Hispanic Origin: 2006Nativity by Type of Hispanic Origin: 2006

87.9

60.1

31.3

68.4

0.6

61.868.8

31.238.2

99.4

61.4

31.638.6

68.7

39.9

12.1

Total Hispanic Mexican PuertoRican

Cuban CentralAmerican

SouthAmerican

OtherHispanic

Per

cent

Native Foreign Born

Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

Implications of NativityImplications of Nativity

• The majority of “Hispanics” (that the Census counts) are native born.

• But again, we are tied to the Census counts.

• Who might the Census not count? • By the way, why might we care about

these numbers, politically? • Especially if the population is becoming

more geographically dispersed.

Percent Hispanic by Region : 2006Percent Hispanic by Region : 2006

Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

26.6

14.5

5.3

11.3

West

South

Midwest

Northeast

This not just a This not just a Western/Southwestern “Issue”Western/Southwestern “Issue”

• Of course, what is the issue? – Immigration?– Jobs? – Health Care?

• Given demographic shifts, it is not surprising to observe importance of immigration debate.

Clips for ThoughtClips for Thought

• Humorous Clip (not meaning to pick on the President!)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBskbZ9Pl6A

• Manassas Controversy

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9rnC9UZhV0&feature=related

Some Data Some Data

• Let’s take a look at population change:

• http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_hispanicpop.html

SubgroupsSubgroups

• Mexican (by far, the dominant Latino group) 65.5 percent of Latino population.

• Geographically settled in California and Southwest but moving upward and eastward.

• Puerto Rican (8.6 percent)• Geographically located primarily in east,

particularly NYC/East Coast cities• Central and South American Origin on the rise.

Settling in the South.

““Factoids” about the Mexican Factoids” about the Mexican PopulationPopulation

• 70 Percent of Californian Mexican Population are U.S. Citizens

• Implications?

• Mobilization?

• Immigration and Undocumented Migration

• Consider some data.

Immigration FlowsImmigration Flows

Annualized Immigration into U.S. (Pew Estimates, 2005)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

An

nu

al Im

mig

rati

on

(in

000

s)

Percentage of Average Annualized Immigration(Pew Estimates, 2005)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Mexican

Other LatinAmericanOtherAsian

Unauthorized Migrants Living in U.S. (Pew Estimates, 2005)

3.9

5

8.4

10.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Nu

mb

er (

in M

illio

ns)

Breakdown of 2004 Unauthorized Population (Pew Estimates)

Other LatinAmerica, 24%

Asia, 9%

Europe/Canada, 6%

Africa/Other, 4%

Mexican, 57%

OTMOTM

• Census Category: Other than Mexican

• Used to demarcate individuals other than Mexican

• More on this later.

• Some data…

Mexican and “OTM” ApprehensionsMexican and “OTM” Apprehensions

Deportable Aliens Apprehended in U.S.: Total and Mexican

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fiscal YearSource: Dept. of Homeland Security

Nu

mb

er A

pp

reh

end

ed

(i

n M

illio

ns

)

TotalMexican

OTM Apprehensions: The Top Five List

9316

14491

24420

36118

31005240

88597036

9602

16974

60217728

11628

14866

581 765 14602498

27396

27317

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002 2003 2004 2005

Fiscal Years 2002-2004Source: Congressional Research Service

Nu

mb

er A

pp

reh

end

ed

Honduras

Brazil

El Salvador

Guatemala

Nicaragua

ContextContext

• What do all these data mean?

• Widely dispersed population

• From widely dispersed areas

• Potential impact in the 2008 election?

• …and beyond? (Redistricting, local elections, etc.)