PLZL Olympiada Site Visit Aug 08

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In accordance with US SEC Regulation AC, important US regulatory disclosures and analyst certification can be found on the last page of this report. www.troika.ru

R u s s i a

August 28, 2008Metals and Mining

Common PLZL RURecommendation (from HOLD) BUYMid price $29.75Target price (from $55.80) $46.42

Upside 56%Free float 40%

ADR PLZL LIRecommendation (from HOLD) BUYLast price $15.90Target price $23.21Upside 46%

Market cap $5,297 mlnEnterprise value $3,850 mlnADT, 100 days $34.8 mlnPrices as of August 27, 2008

Key data

2007 2008E 2009E 2010EFinancials (IFRS), $ mlnRevenues 867 1,131 1,125 1,468EBITDA 279 390 329 541EBIT 54 272 202 371Net income 41 233 183 307EPS, $ 0.49 1.01 0.83 1.54ProfitabilityEBITDA margin 32% 34% 29% 37%EBIT margin 6% 24% 18% 25%Net margin 10% 16% 13% 19%Price ratiosP/S 6.1 4.7 4.7 3.6EV/EBITDA 14.0 9.9 13.4 8.8P/E 60.4 29.4 35.7 19.3P/CF 56.6 12.7 18.3 12.5GrowthRevenues 15% 30% -1% 30%EBITDA -4% 40% -16% 64%EPS -33% 105% -18% 84%

Price performance, %

1 mo 3 mo 6 mo YTDCommon -41.7 -52.6 -45.9 -35.2Relative to RTS -28.4 -28.7 -28.6 -6.6

Price performance, $

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Aug '07 Oct '07 Dec '07 Feb '08 Apr '08 Jun '08 Aug '08

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Share price Relative to RTS

M ax 75 .7 5 ( Jul 24 , ’ 08 ) Mi n 2 9. 75 (Au g 2 7, ’0 8)

Source: Bloomberg, Troika Dialog

Mikhail Stiskin Analyst

[email protected]

+7 (495) 933 9839

Sergey Donskoy Analyst

[email protected]

+7 (495) 933 9840

Ilya Klenin Assistant Analyst

Polyus Gold

Olympiada Site Visit, Investment Case RevisitedWe recently visited Polyus Gold’s Krasnoyarsk operations and viewed theflagship Olympiada mine and the large Blagodatnoye development project,both of which left us quite impressed. We regard Polyus Gold as one of themost complicated cases in the global precious metals universe, with itsextremely aggressive greenfield pipeline and backend loaded growth. Weunderline that the company needs to streamline its growth portfolio and thinkthat the shareholder dispute is having a negative impact on the valuation. Weare decreasing our target price from $55.80 to $46.42 per share (from $27.90to $23.21 per ADR), but upgrading our recommendation to BUY on share priceweakness. We now view the stock as more of a longterm value story withappealing greenfield projects and unparalleled exploration upside.

█ Olympiada and Blagodatnoye visit. We were left with a positive impression fromOlympiada, not only due to its sheer scale (over 800,000 oz annually) but also fromthe technological solutions employed at the asset and the expertise that the localmanagement has gained in running the operation. The Large Mill 3, which usesBIOX technology and was commissioned in summer 2007, is a veritable feat ofmodern engineering. The site faces deteriorating mining conditions as it transitionsto processing sulfide ore but will remain a substantial cash center for the company.The adjacent Blagodatnoye project, one of the most exciting and economicallyrobust development assets in Russia, is well on track for launch in 2010.

█ Challenging growth pipeline. Polyus Gold has accrued a vast development andexploration pipeline that presents substantial growth opportunities, but comes with

a tangible execution risk. We think that the company needs to streamline it,including divesture of exploration assets (though not in the proposed form) andestablishment of JVs at the largest projects (Natalka). Natalka may now be furtherincreased in scale from 1.3 mln oz to 1.9 mln oz following a feasibility study, thoughthe market is to continue to discount its valuation heavily until greater productionand financial visibility is provided.

█ Any resolution to shareholder dispute? The shareholder dispute betweenOnexim Group and Interros that initially provided a strong boost to Polyus Gold’sshare price ahead of the AGM, is now being increasingly perceived as damaging themanagement’s ability to focus on operations, thus negatively affecting the shareprice. As Onexim Group positions are strong, we expect Interros to look to cash out,selling its stake to an Onexim Group-friendly strategic investor.

█ Valuation updated. We have revisited our valuation of the company, havingadjusted upward our operating and capital cost assumptions as well as the cost ofcapital. We have decreased our target price but increased our recommendation onthe stock. However, in view of a deplorable medium-term earnings momentum,major triggers for the stock will lie in increased visibility of its development projectsand resolution of the shareholder conflict on the corporate actions front.



AUGUST 28, 2008 POLYUS GOLD – OLYMPIADA SITE VISIT, INVESTMENT CASE REVISITED

2 TROIKA DIALOG

Investment case: tangled as ever

We have recently visited Polyus Gold’s major operating mine, Olympiada, which impressed us. The visitconfirmed its status as one of the best gold mining operations in Russia. We also saw the

Blagodatnoye development site, which should come online in 2010.At this point Polyus Gold is arguably one of the most complicated cases in the global gold mining universe(and one of the most difficult to value), with its extremely aggressive greenfield project pipeline andback-end loaded growth. We think that an undisciplined expansion program has led to executionchallenges and that the company needs to take concerted efforts to streamline its development pipeline,including via divesting exploration assets and establishing JVs at the largest projects (Natalka).

Polyus Gold production 200415E, ’000 oz

820 783 854 861 835 784 803 757 858 858 858 804

- - - - - - 190202 202 202

- - - - - --

392

727

1,091 1,343

- 27156 142 163 172

172

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158296

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Olympiada Verninskoye Natalka Zapadnoye

Kuranakh Blagodatnoye Lenzoloto Chertovo Koryto

Source: Company, Troika Dialog estimates

We posit that cost inflation has and will continue to have substantial negative effects not only onoperating costs (which are compounded by worsening mining conditions at Olympiada), but alsoon capital costs, which are close to $5 bln. Polyus Gold will have quite deplorable earningsmomentum until the largest projects are launched in 2010-11. Moreover, the shareholder dispute isbeing increasingly perceived as damaging to the management’s ability to focus on operations,negatively impacting the share price, and we now expect Interros to look to cash out, selling itsstake to an Onexim Group-friendly strategic investor.

That said, we believe that the company possesses some extremely attractive large-scaledevelopment assets (Blagodatnoye and Natalka) with robust economics, while Olympiada will

remain a cash center, with production of over 800,000 oz and an enviable costs structure. We alsosee unparalleled exploration upside embedded in Polyus Gold’s portfolio, which the market isignoring. The company also holds $1.5 bln in cash that is easily overlooked. That said, with most ofits value in the development projects, the value remains particularly dependent on the visibility ofgrowth projects, and the poor earnings momentum that is forecast over the next four years isunlikely to positively affect sentiment. We have decreased our target price but increased ourrecommendation on the stock on the back of the share price correction and see the investment caseas more of a long-term value story.

The gold price has performed poorly recently on the back of a stronger dollar, falling commodityprices, seasonally slow demand and jewelry consumption tampered by high bullion prices and anincreasing feed of scrap supplies. We still believe that the medium and long-term environmentremains pro-gold, however, with inflationary concerns across the planet, stagnant mine output, and

robust jewelry demand in emerging markets. We forecast a gold price for 2008 of $921/oz (YTDthe price is around $920/oz and it is currently over $820/oz), $936/oz in 2009 and $968/oz in2010, and bullion performance remains a risk to our valuation.




3 TROIKA DIALOG

Notably, a de-rating of globally commodities has not spared gold equities, including Polyus Gold, most ofwhich are down some 30% from their 1H08 highs. On the gold market, the ratio of the PhiladelphiaGold & Silver Index (XAU) versus the gold price has peaked, suggesting that gold equities are oversoldrelative to the commodity price. We generally remain proponents of a long-term secular bull cycle incommodities and would pick up the most undervalued equities with a long-haul investment horizon.

Ratio of gold spot price to Philadelphia Gold & SilverIndex (XAU) since 2001

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’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08


Olympiada – the flagship asset

Olympiada is the flagship mine of Polyus Gold and the largest gold-mining operation in Russia,churning out over 800,000 oz annually. The mine is located 500 km north of Krasnoyarsk and isaccessible via a 60 km road from the local district center, Severo-Yeniseysk. We were impressed withthe deposit, not only by its sheer scale, but also by the technological solutions employed at the assetand the expertise that the local management has gained in running the operation. Olympiada is notonly the largest operating gold asset in Russia, but arguably represents one of the best managed ones,with a strong team from the former CJSC Polyus, which was sold to Norilsk Nickel in 2004 (it now

forms Polyus Gold along with other assets) and is headed by Vladimir Sovmen.

The Olympiada operation includes a large open-pit mine with total movement in the order of 30 mln m3 of ore and waste annually. The mineralization includes rich oxidized ore grading 10-14 g/tonne, which iseasier to process, as well as sulfide (primary) ore grading 3-4 g/tonne, which is more complex. As thequantity of oxidized ore at Olympiada has now been depleted due to previous mining, the operation willhave to process more of sulfide material to maintain production volumes.

Olympiada ore body cross section

Source: Company, Troika Dialog

The Olympiada mine comprises two open pits – the East Pit and the West Pit – both of which areexploited using conventional excavator and truck techniques. Operations are currently focused onthe East Pit, which is the main source of ore production. The East Pit is presently in the midst of athree-stage development and expansion program to boost ore from 3 mln to 5 mln tonnes througha phased push-back of the pit walls. The final depth of the mine is expected at 650 m. The West Pithas been partly developed and is planned to be operational until 2014.




4 TROIKA DIALOG

Olympiada openpit mine

Source: Troika Dialog

There are three operating mills currently tailored for processing different types of ore. Oxidized oreis processed at Mill No 1, which was built in 1996, has a capacity of 1.5 mln tpy and will now beexpanded to 2.2 mln tpy. The ore is amenable to direct cyanidation and gold is recovered via RIP(resin-in-pulp) technology. As oxidized ores at Olympiada have been depleted in 2008, the ore willbe fed from the satellite projects – the smaller Olenye and larger Titimukhta deposits.

Refractory sulfide ore is processed at Mill No 2 and 3. Mill No 2 was built in 2001, has a capacity of 3 mlntpy and employs a bio-oxidation process (BIOX), which oxidizes sulfide minerals by bacterial action,rendering the minerals amenable to leaching. Innovative BIOX technology increases the gold recoveryrate from sulfide ores by an average of 20-35% compared with conventional methods, and Mill No 2was the first facility in Russia to utilize this technology.

Mill No 3 was commissioned in summer 2007 and represents a veritable feat of modern engineering.

The plant has a design capacity of 5 mln tpy and is the largest gold mill in Russia and one of the largestBIOX plants globally. Although the mill has essentially the same flow sheet as Mill No 2, its design hasbeen altered, incorporating experience gained in with Mill No 2 to further improve the economics. Theenormous plant took just three years to build at a total price tag of $340 mln.




5 TROIKA DIALOG

Olympiada mill operations


Thus, depletion of oxidized ore reserves will be offset by raising capacity to process sulfide ores to 8mln tpy, which will keep production stable at 800,000 oz and making the deposit the single mostimportant asset (by far) in the company’s portfolio until 2012, when production begins at Natalka.There is a also an impressive 14 mln tonne sulfide ore stockpile at Olympiada to ensure adequatemill feed to the plants while the mine is being expanded.

We also visited the satellite Titimukhta open-pit mining project, which lies 9 km northwest ofOlympiada and will provide free-milling ore to the plant at Mill No 1 over the seven year mine lifefollowing the depletion of the Olenye deposit. Ore will be mined at a rate of 1.5 mln tpycommencing in 2008, then ramped up to 2.2 mln tpy and continued until 2015.

Worsening geological conditions at Olympiada – higher tonnage and lower grades due to more relianceon refractory sulfide ore, an increasing stripping ratio, deepening of the open pit and necessity to haul

the ore from satellites – will obviously substantially impact the asset’s cost profile. Quite importantly, costperformance will be helped by processing sulfide ore from available stockpiles, mitigating mining costs.

Olympiada total cash costs, 200315E, $/oz

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6 TROIKA DIALOG

According to the local mine management, the deep flanks of Olympiada appear highly prospective andthe company expects that their successful exploration will enable Olympiada’s mine life to be extended.

Krasnoyarsk assets of Polyus Gold


The management also remains particularly upbeat on the number of exploration assets in the region,including Panimba (see map). The deposits are most likely to be mined open-pit and contain freemilling ore, ensuring robust economics. The company plans to leverage its existing infrastructure andlogistics in the region when developing the assets and sees the potential to almost double productionvolumes from the current 850,000 oz in the region with possible launch of these prospective deposits.

Blagodatnoye – well on track

The Blagodatnoye project adjacent to Olympiada is, in our eyes, Polyus Gold’s most exciting and

economically robust development asset after the giant (and controversial) Natalka. Located 26 km northof Olympiada, the project will realize important infrastructural synergies with the company’s flagshipmine. The largest gold asset discovery in the modern history of Russian gold mining and a child of Polyus




7 TROIKA DIALOG

Gold’s own exploration efforts since 2000, the project now boasts an impressive 8.1 mln oz of gold at arobust grade of 2.4 g/tonnes in P&P under JORC and 19.0 mln oz in MI&I resources.

The asset is to be mined using conventional shovel-and-truck open pits. The ore is free milling and isexpected to be processed on-site at the 6 mln tpy mill, with recoveries via gravity concentration,

followed by flotation and cyanide leaching. The recovery rate is expected at around 88.6%.

Blagodatnoye mill under construction


The asset is expected to be launched in 2010 and will process 3 mln tonnes that year for 206,000oz of gold. The project will then be ramped up to 6 mln tonnes of capacity and 412,000 oz of goldproduction. We believe that the company is currently well on track with mine development – whereequipment from Olympiada has been relocated – and mill construction. We now move our expectedlaunch year from 2011 to 2010; more importantly, the local mine management estimates that itmay even be possible to launch the project in end 2009.




8 TROIKA DIALOG

Blagodatnoye production (mine life), bars, ’000 oz Blagodatnoye free cash flow versus total cash costs,200715E

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Blagodatnoye free cash flow, $ mln

Blagodatnoye total cash costs, $/oz

Source: Company, Troika Dialog estimates Source: Company, Troika Dialog estimates

The project possesses very robust economics, with a low stripping ratio of 2.3 m3/tonne over themine life and straightforward processing. We expect total cash costs to average $300-350/oz andforecast capex of $545 mln. The project NAV stands at a handsome $751 mln and risked equityvalue is $962 mln when incorporating 20% development risk and standard P/NAV of 1.6.

Natalka project – even bigger?

Natalka is the undisputable piece de resistance in Polyus Gold’s growth portfolio, one of Russia’slargest greenfield mining ventures and by far the biggest project in the domestic gold miningindustry. With reserves of 40.8 mln oz (P&P under JORC), making it one of the three largest golddeposits globally, and expected output of well over 1.0 mln oz, the asset remains one of the keyitems in the company’s valuation. We currently expect output of 1.3 mln oz starting in 2012, with a

mind-boggling 40 mln tpy of ore to be open-pit mined and processed, making it largely a volumeoperation, as grades stand at a mediocre 1.1 g/tonne. A pre-feasibility study was prepared in thebeginning of 2008 and Polyus Gold is also currently considering expanding the scale of operationseven further, possibly boosting mined tonnage to 60 mln tonnes of ore, churning out 1.9 mln oz ofgold. The feasibility study is to be completed by year end. Polyus Gold has recently constructed apilot plant with ore capacity totaling 120,000-130,000 tonnes in order to develop greaterknowledge of the asset and its metallurgy.

Considering the geographic remoteness of the project, which is located in Magadan Region,electricity supplies have been one of the major challenges for the deposit, and Polyus Gold hassigned an agreement with RusHydro to provide electricity to the Natalka mine. The power will besupplied by both the existing Kolymskaya hydropower plant and the Ust-Srednekanakayahydropower plant currently under construction. The document details preliminary arrangements

regarding the terms of the power supply and specifies the technical solutions of the project, thoughno final agreement on the price was reached.

The increase in the project’s potential capacity will remain an upside scenario in our valuation.However, in view of the amount of skepticism vis-а-vis Natalka in the gold industry and investmentcommunity and the challenges that a project of this scale entails, we expect the market to continueto discount its valuation quite heavily until greater production and financial visibility is providedand/or the market has greater certainty in the company’s ability to manage its Herculean pipeline.

We reiterate our call that we would like to see Polyus Gold team up with a gold major to develop themassive Natalka asset while retaining a 51% stake, enabling it to substantially reduce operatingrisks (or at least their perception). Considering the lack of substantial organic growth opportunitiesfor most gold majors and the rarity of projects of such scale on the global market, there will be nopaucity of contenders for a partnership role in developing the deposit.

Natalka was valued at $1.4 bln for the purpose of the mandatory buy-out now conducted by PolyusGold, and considering the usual ultraconservatism of valuations in such cases in Russian corporategovernance we admittedly take some relief in this number.




9 TROIKA DIALOG

Now with Chertyvo Koryto

Earlier this year, Polyus Gold completed an audit of mineral resources under JORC standards of itssmall-scale asset, Chertyvo Koryto. In P&P categories, the asset is estimated to contain 43.6 mlntonnes of ore graded at1.83 g/tonne and containing 2.6 mln oz of gold. M&I resources amount to

50.5 mln tonnes of ore at 1.84 g/tonne, or 3.0 mln oz of gold.The asset is at an advanced exploration stage, located in a remote area of Irkutsk Region, 190 kmfrom Bodaibo, close to the company’s operating Zapadnoye mine and the Verninskoyedevelopment project. The deposit was acquired in 2004 and Polyus Gold intends to launch it in2012 with annual production of 130,000 oz. We now think that the asset has sufficient productionand financial visibility to model in, and thus include it in our NAV-based valuation of the company.

We assume that the asset will be launched in 2013, ramping up production to 130,000 oz by2015. Open-pit mining will be used, with an average strip ratio of 2.1, and the mill will process 2.2mln tpy of ore at a high recovery rate of 90%.The project contains free milling ores, though therobustness of its economics will be tempered somewhat by existing infrastructural challenges andunexciting ore grades.

Chertyvo Koryto production (mine life), bars, ’000 oz Chertyvo Koryto free cash flow versus total cash costs,2010E20E

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Chertovo Koryto free cash flow, $ mln

Chertovo Koryto total cash costs, $/oz (r.h. scale)

Source: Company, Troika Dialog estimates Source: Company, Troika Dialog estimates

Capex is estimated at $330 mln, and total cash costs are expected to be in the range of $350-500/oz.Our estimated equity value for the asset is a modest $98 mln.

Cost inflation – the sword of Damocles

We remain convinced that it is particularly dangerous for any mining company to grow in thecurrent environment of rampant cost inflation, and thus prefer equities with front-loaded cash flowsand palpable cash generation that can be returned to shareholders. From this standpoint, Polyus

Gold, with its massive greenfield projects, back-end loaded production growth and deterioratingmining conditions at the flagship Olympiada project, is surely something of a loser.

We believe that the market is still complacent regarding the inflation of costs in the Russian miningspace, with problems spanning from rising costs for steel/cement and consumables to equipmentavailability/delivery problems, necessitating advance ordering of equipment with long lead times.Skilled labor is becoming arguably the most important issue, as mining companies in Russia mustnot only match average domestic salary growth, but also retain workers employed in distant regionswith harsh climates and difficult social conditions. We forecast that gold mining will face the mostserious labor issues, as this is currently a rapidly growing sector, unlike base metals, and a numberof large greenfield assets are to be launched in the next five to seven years at distant locations(Magadan, Amur, Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk and Chukotka), making hiring needs particularly acute. Thecost problem is further compounded by increasing domestic energy/gas prices, fuel costs and

railroad tariffs, as well as ruble appreciation.




10 TROIKA DIALOG

Cost inflation by item

2006 2007 yoy

Energy, R/MWth* 579.9 666.9 11.4%

Diesel, $/tonne 560.8 595.3 12.8%

Steel (hot rolled), $/tonne 499.4 563.2 15.0%

Oil (Brent), $/bbl 65.1 72.5 8.0%

Steam coal, $/tonne 25.0 27.0 6.2%

* average level of tariffs approved by energy suppliers to wholesale market

Source: Polyus Gold, Troika Dialog

The cost picture for Polyus Gold is further compounded by deteriorating mining conditions atOlympiada, which led total cash costs to spike by 24% to $348/oz in 2007 (including excessivestripping costs). We have now meaningfully upgraded our cost assumptions for the company toreflect the prevailing inflationary environment.

Polyus Gold average total cash costs, 200415E, $/oz

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We also highlight that cost inflation is an issue not only on the operating line, but also on the capitalcost line, and thus equities with minimal capex requirements will surely be in the most advantageousposition. Polyus Gold has one of the most aggressive production profiles globally, and its colossalcapex has to fully bear the burden of cost inflation. The company recently revised its capex andproduction guidance, now expecting output to reach 4.6 mln oz in 2015, up from 1.2 mln oz in2007, coming at a cost of $5.1 bln, while it previously guided production of 3.9 mln oz in 2015 at acost of $3.4 bln. Thus, additional production now costs $1,500/oz, while the previous estimatewas $1,259/oz, a rise of 20%. The increase appears to be relatively mild thus far due to substantialcost synergies of production expansion at Natalka, but nevertheless the company is forecast toexperience the severe brunt of the cost inflation on the capex line going forward.

We currently model in production of 3.0 mln oz in 2015, coming at a cost of $4.6 bln (expansionand maintenance capex), or capex of $2,548/oz of additional production, way above the

management’s expectations.




11 TROIKA DIALOG

Polyus Gold production 200415E, ’000 oz

820 783 854 861 835 784 803 757 858 858 858 804

- - - - - - 190202 202 202

- - - - - --

392

727

1,091 1,343

- 27156 142 163 172

172

172

172

172

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158296

395

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407 407

246 212

172 179 183 193

193193

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--

129

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138 190-

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Olympiada Verninskoye Natalka ZapadnoyeKuranakh Blagodatnoye Lenzoloto Chertovo Koryto


Polyus Gold capex requirements 200815E, $ mln

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Olympiada Verninskoye

Natalka Zapadnoye

Kuranakh Blagodatnoye

Lenzoloto Chertovo Koryto

Other Exploration


Divesture of exploration assets

We reiterate our view that the biggest drawback in Polyus Gold’s investment case is the lack ofdiscipline in its expansion strategy; it now faces a barely manageable growth pipeline. In spite of thechallenges presented by the current development projects, the company has continued to accrueprospective exploration licenses in Russia, which have now arguably become more of a liability than anasset on its balance sheet. The company is required to undertake ongoing exploration expenses underthe “use it or lose it” approach employed in Russia with regard to greenfield assets, but, in our view itlacks the execution capacity to advance and develop these projects in addition to its current pipeline.

Licenses can indeed be acquired very cheaply in Russia, but the paradox is that they do not seem toadd any value to the company at this stage, and the unparallel exploration upside embedded in itsportfolio continues to be completely ignored by the market. Polyus Gold is a unique case globally,whereby increases in its reserve estimates (which now stand at a staggering 71 mln oz under P&P)have not reflected positively on its share price.




12 TROIKA DIALOG

Polyus Gold exploration assets’ carve out


We are thus fully supportive of the idea of divesting the exploration assets to crystallize their value,which would also enable Polyus Gold to streamline its growth portfolio and focus on its developmentproperties. That said, the devil is in the details, and we find the management’s proposal of a carve-outto the current shareholders as unconvincing, as we elaborated in our research “Gold: From the Depths of Russia” of February 2008. Polyus Gold’s “non-gold-bug” shareholder base does not possess therisk-reward characteristics to be interested in such a peculiar, risky vehicle as Polyus Exploration. Also,conducting a carve-out at cost (accumulated exploration expenses) may understate the actual value ofthe assets and allow participating shareholders to benefit at the expense of non-participating ones.Thus, we are of the opinion that the transaction will be conducted as a divesture to all outsideinvestors, tapping into mining-focused funds globally.

While Interros cannot legally block the carve-out due to the way that it is structured on thecorporate level, the divesture process has been halted, though we expect it to resume once the

shareholder dispute is resolved.

Shareholders’ dispute – the good and the bad of it

The shareholder dispute initially provided a strong boost to the company’s share price ahead of theAGM on June 26, 2008. However, it is now starting to have a pronounced detrimental effect on thestock, as the company is increasingly perceived as being in the midst of a conflict, with themanagement more concerned about corporate control issues rather than day-to-day operations.

Polyus Gold local share price

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A u g ’ 0 8


In 1H08 both Onexim Group and Interros were allegedly buying stock on the open market and

trying to sway the support of the minority shareholder. As we expected, Onexim Group eventuallycarried the day and retained control over the miner. We estimate that the stake of two majorshareholders – Onexim Group and Interros – is now close to 30%, though Onexim Group is able to




13 TROIKA DIALOG

control a 6.6% stake through subsidiary Jenington International, which naturally votes in line withthe Onexim Group-appointed management’s recommendations.

Polyus Gold BoD

Name Affiliation Name Affiliation

Mikhail Prokhorov Onexim Group Mikhail Prokhorov Onexim Group

Ekaterina Salnikova Onexim Group Ekaterina Salnikova Onexim Group

Evgueni Ivanov Onexim Group Evgueni Ivanov Onexim Group

Valeri Rudakov Onexim Group Valeri Rudakov Onexim Group

Sergey Batekhin Interros Evgueni Yarovikov Interros

Pavel Skitovich Interros Andrey Klishas Interros

Kirill Parinov Interros Robert Buchan Independent

Valery Braiko Independent Valery Braiko Independent

Lord Patrick James Gillford Independent Lord Patrick James Gillford Independent

Previous Polyus Gold BoD New Polyus Gold BoD


At the AGM in June, all four Onexim Group representatives – CEO Evgeny Ivanov, MikhailProkhorov, Valery Rudakov, and Ekaterina Salnikova – retained their seats. Interros lost one seat

and now has two members: Andrei Klishas and Evgeny Yarovikov. Two independent directors werereelected: Valery Braiko, who is supported by Onexim Group and Lord Patrick Gillford, who has thebacking of Interros. One new independent director, Robert Buchan, who was supported byindependent consultants Risk Metrics and Glass Lewis.

As Interros and Onexim Group have thus far demonstrated a complete lack of will to cooperate on arange of issues, we believe that Interros has found itself in a troublesome position, as it is currentlysubordinated to a minority position in the company. Interros’ financial position is currentlysubstantially weaker than that of Onexim Group (which has lately received a war chest of around$12 bln from selling its 25% stake in Norilsk Nickel to UC RUSAL and its 50% stake in KM-Invest toInterros), limiting its ability to make purchases on the open market.

We would thus expect Interros to look to sell its stake in Polyus Gold, most likely to an outside

strategic investor that will be capable of cooperating with Onexim Group as a controllingshareholder. We again underline that state-controlled diamond producer ALROSA remains the mostviable contender (possibly using the financial muscle of state-owned banks for the purpose of thetransaction), though the emergence of other investors, including Oleg Deripaska’s Basic Element,cannot be excluded. Should Interros dispose of its stake through selling to a strategic investor, wewould regard the event as positive.

We think that Onexim Group may also consider selling its stake to a strategic investor along withInterros, or after Interros disposes of its stake, with ALROSA again emerging as a possible bidder,though the valuations demanded by the selling party are naturally likely to be in the high range.

The major factor that has depressed Polyus Gold’s share price recently has been growing concern onthe part of the investment community over the management’s ability to concentrate on day-to-dayoperations during the ongoing shareholder dispute, especially considering the challenges that the

company faces with its aggressive pipeline. We believe that unless the shareholder dispute is resolvedin some shape or form, the market will continue to apply a discount to the company’s valuation.

Financial picture

As we expected, the picture painted by the company’s 2007 financial results was not rosy at all,with cost inflation eroding profitability alongside flat production. The generous options expense inthe amount of $133 mln for the year also depressed the headline results.




14 TROIKA DIALOG

Polyus Gold 2007 IFRS results, $ mln

2007A 2006 yoy 2007E A/E 2H07A 1H07 HoH

Revenues 867 753 15% 855 1% 558 309 80%

Gross income 332 311 7% 299 11% 227 105 116%Gross margin 38% 41% 35% 41% 34%

EBITDA 146 291 50% 146 0% 187 (41) n/m

EBITDA margin 17% 39% 17% 34% n/m

EBITDA, adjusted* 279 291 4% 278 0% 187 92 103%

Adjusted EBITDA margin 32% 39% 33% 34% 30%

Net income 41 1,160 96% 64 36% 135 (94) n/m

Net margin 5% 154% 7% 24% n/m

Net income, adjusted* 88 132 33% 104 16% 95 (7) n/m

Adjusted net margin 10% 18% 12% 17% n/m

Production, ’000 oz 1,215 1,215 0%

Realized price, $/oz 706 612 15%

Total cash costs, $/oz 348 284 22% 347 0%

* adjusted for management options program expense and income from investments


We have revisited our valuation of Polyus Gold, adjusting both our operating and capital costsassumptions upward. We have also increased the probability discount for Natalka from 25% to35%, as we believe that this more appropriately reflects the risks of this massive project, which isstill in the feasibility stage, though we would look to adjust this discount as the visibility of projectimproves. We also now add to our valuation the Chertyvo Koryto project and have brought theBlagodatnoye launch date forward from 2011 to 2010.

We have increased our cost of equity from 11.0% to 12.0% (the sum of a risk-free rate of 7.4%and equity-risk premium of 4.6%) to account for the higher corporate governance risks at thecompany due to the shareholder conflict and a broader de-rating of Russian equities.

Polyus Gold estimate changes, $ mln

New Old Diff New Old Diff New Old Diff

Revenues 1,131.3 1,135.0 0% 1,125.3 1,087.9 3% 1,468.3 1,312.2 12%

EBITDA 389.9 439.2 -11% 329.1 340.2 -3% 541.1 461.5 17%

EBITDA margin 34% 39% 29% 31% 37% 35%

Net income 233.4 296.2 -21% 182.7 189.5 -4% 307.3 252.0 22%

Net margin 21% 26% 16% 17% 21% 19%

2008E 2009E 2010E

Source: Troika Dialog estimates

Olympiada and Natalka are the key constituents in the company’s NAV.

Polyus Gold projects' value, $ mln

NAV Probability Risked Polyus Gold Risked P/NAV Equity

of the project of success NAV share attributable NAV$ mln $ mln $ mln $ mln

Olympiada 2,019 100% 2,019 100% 2,019 1.60 3,230

Verninskoye 298 80% 238 100% 238 1.60 381

Natalka 2,047 65% 1,331 93% 1,331 1.60 2,129

Zapadnoye 45 100% 45 100% 45 1.60 72

Kuranakh 317 100% 317 99% 317 1.60 508

Blagodatnoye 751 80% 601 100% 601 1.60 962

Lenzoloto 129 100% 129 68% 129 1.60 207

Chertovo Koryto 87 70% 61 100% 61 1.60 98

Nezdaninskoye 278*

Total 7,865

* using a target multiple of $150/oz of reserves

Source: Polyus Gold, Troika Dialog estimates




15 TROIKA DIALOG

Polyus Gold valuation, $ mln

$ mln $ per share $ per ADR

Olympiada 3,230 18.1 9.1

Verninskoye 381 2.1 1.1

Natalka 2,129 12.0 6.0

Zapadnoye 72 0.4 0.2

Kuranakh 508 2.9 1.4

Blagodatnoe 962 5.4 2.7

Lenzoloto 207 1.2 0.6

Chertovo Koryto 98 0.5 0.3

Nezdaninskoye 278 1.6 0.8

Total value of projects 7,865 44.2 22.1

Less: corporate SG&A (1,100) (6.2) (3.1)

Fundamental value of assets 6,765 38.0 19.0

Less: net debt (1,500) (8.4) (4.2)

Fundamental equity value 8,265 46.4 23.2

Source: Polyus Gold, Troika Dialog estimates

We decrease our target price from $55.80 to $46.42 per share ($27.90 to $23.21 per ADR), but

upgrade our recommendation to BUY. We now view the stock as more of a long-term value storywith appealing greenfield projects and exploration upside, though fail to see short-term catalysts inview of poor earnings momentum and the ongoing shareholder dispute. We would recommendPolymetal and Peter Hambro Mining as the best vehicles to play the underlying precious metalsmarket in Russia at present, as both possess an enviable project pipeline, strong record of executionand solid cash generation.




17 TROIKA DIALOG

Ownership structure

Interros

30.0%

Onexim

30.0%

Other

40.0%

Polyus Gold IFRS financials, $ mln

2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EINCOME STATEMENTRevenues 867 1,131 1,125 1,468 1,673 2,404 2,631

COGS (535) (670) (710) (850) (995) (1,252) (1,324)

Gross income 332 461 415 619 678 1,152 1,306

Gross margin 38.3% 40.7% 36.9% 42.1% 40.5% 47.9% 49.7%SG&A (262) (161) (183) (216) (244) (294) (323)

EBITDA 146 390 329 541 611 1,072 1,229Adjusted EBITDA 279 390 329 541 611 1,072 1,229EBITDA margin 32.2% 34.5% 29.2% 36.9% 36.5% 44.6% 46.7%

DD&A (92) (118) (127) (171) (210) (248) (282)

EBIT 54 272 202 371 400 823 947

Interest income (7) (3) (3) (3) (4) (5) (7)

Forex gain – – – – – – –

Other gains 10 – – – – – –

Pre-tax income 118 340 244 411 413 866 993

Income tax (71) (102) (59) (99) (99) (208) (238)

Minority interest (6) (4) (3) (5) (5) (11) (13)

Exceptionals – – – – – – –

Net income 41 233 183 307 308 647 742Adjusted net income 88 180 148 274 296 611 702Net margin 10.1% 15.9% 13.2% 18.6% 17.7% 25.4% 26.7%

EPS, $ 0.23 1.31 1.03 1.73 1.73 3.63 4.17Adjusted EPS, $ 0.49 1.01 0.83 1.54 1.66 3.43 3.94

BALANCE SHEETAssets

Cash and equivalents 1,497 1,527 944 577 326 502 968

Receivables 40 52 51 67 77 110 120

Inventories 232 291 308 368 432 543 574

Other current assets 133 174 173 225 257 369 403Total current assets 1,902 2,043 1,476 1,238 1,091 1,523 2,066

Total non-current assests 1,797 2,073 2,820 3,448 3,994 4,430 4,694

Total assets 3,699 4,116 4,295 4,686 5,085 5,953 6,761

LiabilitiesShort-term borrowings 21 27 27 35 40 58 63

Payables 22 27 29 34 40 51 54

Other current liabilities 156 167 166 192 221 277 292

Total current liabilities 198 221 222 262 302 385 409

Long-term borrowings – – – – – – –

Other non-current liabilities 265 439 444 512 562 700 742Total non-current liabilities 265 439 444 512 562 700 742

Total liabilities 463 660 666 774 864 1,086 1,151

Minority interest 47 34 24 – – – –

Equity 3,189 3,422 3,605 3,912 4,221 4,868 5,610Total liabilities and equity 3,699 4,116 4,295 4,686 5,085 5,953 6,761

Net debt/(cash) (1,476) (1,500) (917) (542) (286) (444) (905)

CASH FLOW STATEMENTNet income 41 233 183 307 308 647 742

Minority interest (6) (4) (3) (5) (5) (11) (13)

DD&A (92) (118) (127) (171) (210) (248) (282)

Working capital change (64) (65) (15) (70) (67) (134) (39)

Other assets change 24 131 (4) 17 48 81 22

Operating cash flow 94 417 290 424 500 843 1,008Maintenance capex (480) (389) (873) (793) (753) (673) (543)

Expansionary capex – – – – – – –

Other investments (1) (4) 0 (6) (3) (12) (4)

Investing cash flow (481) (393) (873) (799) (757) (685) (547)Change in debt 6 6 (0) 8 5 18 5

Dividends paid (21) (45) (37) (68) (74) (153) (175)

Share issues/(purchases) 194 – – – – – –

Other 1 – – – – – –Financing cash flow 201 6 (0) 8 5 18 5

Forex effects – – – – – – –

Net change in cash (187) 30 (584) (366) (251) 176 466

RATIOSP/E 60.4 29.4 35.7 19.3 17.9 8.7 7.5

EV/EBITDA 14.0 9.9 13.4 8.8 8.2 4.5 3.6

P/BV 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9ROE 2.8% 5.3% 4.1% 7.0% 7.0% 12.5% 12.5%

ROIC 2.6% 5.1% 4.0% 6.9% 6.9% 12.3% 12.3%

Dividend per share, $ 0.12 0.25 0.21 0.38 0.42 0.86 0.99

Dividend yield 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 2.9% 3.3%

P/S 6.1 4.7 4.7 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.0

P/CF 56.6 12.7 18.3 12.5 10.6 6.3 5.3

Revenue growth 15% 30% -1% 30% 14% 44% 9%EBITDA growth -4% 40% -16% 64% 13% 76% 15%

EPS growth -33% 105% -18% 84% 8% 107% 15%





18 TROIKA DIALOG

Disclosure appendix

Important US Regulatory Disclosures

An affiliate of Troika Dialog USA makes a market in the securities of Polyus Gold.

The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for thepreparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors,including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firmrevenues and overall investment banking revenues.

Analyst certification

The following analyst(s) hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect such research analyst’s personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that nopart of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views contained in the research report: Sergey Donskoy, Ilya Klenin,Mikhail Stiskin.



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and Global Markets Jacques Der Megreditchian

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PLZL Olympiada Site Visit Aug 08

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