PLANNING OF DROUGHT MANAGEMENT -KONYA BASIN …...HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS Thousands of people died...
Transcript of PLANNING OF DROUGHT MANAGEMENT -KONYA BASIN …...HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS Thousands of people died...
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PLANNING OF DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT
-KONYA BASIN CASE STUDY-
REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER
AFFAIRS GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF WATER MANAGEMENT
Cancun, 2017
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OUTLINE
• Drought Concept and Definitions
• Konya Basin
• Methodology and Approach
– Climate Model
– Drought Analyses
– Hydrological Studies
• Findings
– Effects of Climate Change
– Expected Changes in Water Budget
– Sectoral Vulnerability
• Drought Management Plan
(2/44)
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(3/44)
Drought Concept and Definitions
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DROUGHT AS A NATURAL DISASTER
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Definition (UNCCD,1994):
Drought means the naturally occurring phenomenon that
exists when;
Precipitation has been significantly below long term
average of recorded levels which;
Adversely affects water, soil
and living creatures,
Causes serious hydrological
imbalances,
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OCCURRENCE OF DROUGHTS
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Precipitation Deficiency High Temperature, Low
Relative Humidity
Reduced Infiltration, Runoff Increase in Evaporation and
Transpiration
Natural Climate
Variability
Soil Water Deficiency
Plant Water Stress, Reduced
Biomass and Yield
Reduced Streamflow, Inflow to
Reservoirs, Lakes, and Ponds
Economic
Impacts
Social
Impacts
Environmental
Impacts
Me
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rolo
gic
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Dro
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Ag
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ult
ura
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Dro
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Hyd
rolo
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Dro
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Tim
e (
Du
rati
on
)
Adapted From: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, USA
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HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS
• Thousands of people died and migrated after the droughts occurred in 1804, 1874-1876, 1928 and 1933.
• 1972-1974, 1989-1990, 1993, 1998-2001, 2006-2008 and 2013 were the recent drought periods of Turkey.
• These droughts caused impacts on food and energy production and restrained access to municipal water in big cities.
(6/32)
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
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In order to minimize and avoid drought impacts
Measures are defined for pre-drought , during drought and post-drought stages.
Measures have to include:
• Actions to increase drought resilience
• Crisis planning during drought events
• Recovery works after drought
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PROJECTS
Finished
Ongoing
Planned
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(9/44)
Konya Basin
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KONYA BASIN
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Annual Precipitation (Long term average)
Average (Turkey) = 593 mm
Average (Konya Basin) = 384 mm
(Less than most of the African Countries)
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KONYA BASIN
(11/44) Annual Precipitation
250 mm
600 mm
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– Aim of the Study:
• Prepare Drought Management Plan for the Konya
Basin on the basis of integrated river basin
management approach.
• Mitigate the prospective drought risks by defining
appropriate measures to be taken before, during
and after droughts.
– Konya Basin Drought Management Plan will be used
by many different institutions related to water.
– Most of which contributed to the studies by
participating to regular meetings as stakeholders.
(12/44)
Main
Stakeholders
of the Project
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
OF KONYA BASIN
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STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
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Kickoff Meeting
Stakeholder Meetings
Education Programs
Field Studies
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Methodology and Approach
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PROJECT STAGES AT A GLANCE
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DATA COLLECTION
SECTORAL STUDIES
(SENSITIVITY)
HYDROLOGICAL AND
HYDROGEOLOGICAL
STUDIES
SECTORAL
VULNERABILITY
DROUGHT MAPS -
DATABASE
DROUGHT
ANALYSES
CLIMATE CHANGE
PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT PLAN
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CLIMATE IS CHANGING
(16/44) Data Source: climate.nasa.gov
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Mean Temperature RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)
(17/44)
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY MPI Model_Total Precipitation RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)
(18/44)
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index
RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days/30 years
(19/44)
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND TURKEY
Precipitation Indices
(20/44)
5 Days Max
Precip.
1 Day
Max
Precip.
Consecutive
Wet days Heavy
Precip.Day Very Heavy
Precip.Day
Consecutive
Dry Days
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CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES OF
KONYA BASIN
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Regional Climate Models
were run for 2015 – 2050
period.
Temperature, precipitation,
evaporation, etc. estimates
were computed.
Estimates were later used in
hydrologic modeling to
assess runoff, water depth,
groundwater levels and
water budget calculations.
MPI-ESM-MR,
HadGEM2-ES &
GFDL-ESM2M.
RCP 4.5 &
RCP8.5
RegCM 4.3.5
10x10km
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DROUGHT ANALYSES
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Trend analyses were made to detect possible climate change effects
Konya (17245) station, annual precipitation trend
Konya Basin Mean Annual Precipitaion
Annual precipitation shows a clear decreasing trend.
…
The climate change is already affecting the basin.
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DROUGHT ANALYSES
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Index
Me
teo
rolo
gic
al
Dro
ug
ht
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral D
rou
gh
t
Hy
dro
log
ica
l
Dro
ug
ht
Cli
ma
too
gic
Dro
ug
ht
Ag
roh
yd
rolo
gic
al
stu
die
s C
lim
ate
Ch
an
ge
Sce
na
rio
s
His
tori
cal
An
aly
sis
Ris
k A
na
lysi
s
Mo
nit
ori
ng
,
Fo
resi
gh
t
Sn
ow
fall
im
po
rta
nt
Normal Precipitation Percentage * * Standardized Precipitation Index * * * Palmer Drought Intensity Index * * * * Palmer Hydrological Drought
Index * *
Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index * Aydeniz Index Surface Water Supply Index * * Erinç Drought Index * * NormalizedVegetation Variation
Index *
Aridity Index * * * *
Drought
analyses were
conducted
using several
different
drought
indices and
indicators.
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HYDROLOGICAL STUDIES
(24/44)
Hydro-
Meteorology Hydrology Hydrogeology Modelling Water Budget
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HYDROLOGIC MODELLING
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Gökgöl Subbasin
Tersakan Lake Subbasin
Kulu Lake Subbasin
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(26/44)
Findings
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DROUGHT EVENTS
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Probability distribution of
Drought Occurrence by
means of PDSI time series
1972-1974 1984-1985
2000-2001 2004-2005
2004-2008 2013
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AREAS AFFECTED BY DROUGHTS
(28/44)
Konya Basin (1972-1974)
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WATER BUDGET
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Sectors GW Used
(hm³)
Cooperatives 1156,4
Public irrigation 2071
Municipal 137,9
Industry 61,3
Total 3426,7
Avg. Precipitation
384 mm
Annual Volume of
Precipitation
19450 hm³
Evapotranspiration
14714 hm³
Annual Runoff
2303 hm³
GW Recharge
2433 hm³
Surface Water
Potantial
2676 hm³
Spring Water
373 hm³
Gross Surface
Water Potantial
2930 hm³
Water transfer
420 hm³
Groundwater
2226 hm³
Gross Renewable
Water Potantial
5156 hm³
Annual Usable Surface
Water
1863 hm³
Annual Usable Water
Potantial
3866 hm³
Annual Usable
GroundWater
2003 hm³
Mevcut Tüketilen Su
183 hm³
Percolation
166 hm³
Mevcut Tüketilen Su
hm³
Total Water Used
Annually
4996 hm³
Currently Used
Groundwater
3427 hm³
Currently Used Surface
Water
1569 hm³
Sub Basin No SW Pot
(hm³)
GW
Pot
(hm³)
Beyşehir 16/1 832 111
Konya 16/2 370 620
Karaman 16/3 375 226
Ereğli-Bor 16/4 215 338
Aksaray 16/5 489 529
Altı eki 16/6 105 86
Cihanbeyli 16/7 145 97
Yukarı-kabakulak
16/8 69 46
Misli 16/9 78 173
Total 2679 2226 (From Göksu River
Basin – Mavi Tünel)
Sectors SW Used
(hm³
DSİ & İÖİ 1446,4
Public irrigation 74,8
Municipal 41,9
Industry 6,1
Total 1569,2
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GROUNDWATER BUDGET ESTIMATIONS
FOR DIFFERENT MODELS AND SCENARIOS
(30/44)
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gro
un
dw
ate
r (h
m³/
year)
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(31/44)
EXPECTED WATER SHORTAGES
3000 hm³
3500 hm³
4000 hm³
4500 hm³
5000 hm³
5500 hm³
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PROJECTED WATER POTANTIAL vs. WATER REQUIREMENT
WATER SHORTAGE AVAILABLE WATER
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SECTORAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
(32/44)
2015 2025 2030 2040 2050
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SECTORAL WATER DEMAND
(33/32)
32
27
31
91
31
55
31
19
30
83
30
46
28
66
26
85
25
04
23
23
21
42
19
61
13
8
14
3
96
99
10
3
10
9
11
5
12
6
13
7
16
1
19
6
23
7
61
63
65
67
70
72
79
88
98
109
122
136
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Wate
r R
eq
uir
em
en
t (h
m³)
GROUND WATER REQUIREMENT
IRRIGATION MUNICIPAL WATER INDUSTRY
Main goal is to decrease ground water demand by
establishing surface water supply projects and utilizing
modern agricultural techniques.
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(34/44)
Drought Management Plan
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MAIN PRINCIPLES OF KONYA BASIN
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
(35/44)
1. Improve Water Availability Monitoring and Drought Impact Assessment
2. Increase Public Awareness and Education
3. Enhance Mechanisms to Provide Water Supplies to Sub-basins That
Are Under Risk of Water Shortage During Droughts
4. Coordinate and Provide Technical Assistance for Planning Efforts for
Development of Water and Soil Resources by Local Administrations,
General and Regional Directorates of Ministries
5. Reduce Water Demand, Encourage Water Use Efficiency and
Conservation of Water Resources and Water Quality
6. Reduce Drought Impacts on Konya Basin’s Economy, People and Ecosystem
7. Develop Interagency Stakeholder Coordination
8. Evaluate Potential Impacts from Climate Change
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
(By considering the information obtained from all of the analyses conducted)
Drought Management Plan of Konya Basin provides answers to these questions:
1. What are the actions that should be taken for each stage.
2. Who is responsible from taking the action.
3. How the action should be taken.
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN INCLUDES
MORE THAN 100 DETAILED ACTIONS
(36/44)
DROUGHT STAGES
Mild
Drought
Moderate
Drought
Severe
Drought Normal
Conditions
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
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Monitoring
First Stage
Close monitoring
Second Stage
Put required measures into
effect
Third Stage
Put all measures in
Drought Management
Plan into effect
Second Stage
Dismantle unnecessary
measures
First Stage
Dismantle all measures
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DROUGHT MANAGEMENT WEB SITE
kuraklikyonetimi.ormansu.gov.tr
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BASIN DROUGHT DATABASE
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A drought database was developed to set up an effective
management mechanism.
Available at: kuraklikkonya.ormansu.gov.tr
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TO SUM UP...
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• Essential Elements of Establishing a
Drought Management Plan (1/2)
1. Identification of needs.
2. Stakeholder involvement.
3. Storing and publishing reliable data.
4. Considering possible changes (climate,
population etc.)
5. Analyzing past droughts and drought
characteristics of the study area.
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TO SUM UP...
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• Essential Elements of Establishing a Drought Management Plan (2/2)
6. Evaluation of water budget and sectoral needs.
7. Identifying sectoral vulnerabilities and priorities.
8. Determination of measures and roles of stakeholders.
9. Establising a management model.
10.Revision of the plan at regular periods and after drought events.
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THANK YOU
REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND WATER
AFFAIRS GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF WATER MANAGEMENT
Mustafa Berk Duygu