Pilcher, David — Prediction in Critical Care: Science, Art or Foolishness?

Prediction in Critical CareScience, Art or Foolishness

David Pilcher@Intensive DaveThe Alfred Hospital & ANZICS CORE

Michael

65 yrs

83kg 174cm

Sepsis

23rd October 1998634 BC

1st January 200021st December 2012

26th April 2026

Predictions are common.

“I do a bit of modelling….”


Discrimination Calibration Validation


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BurnsArea under Receiver Operator

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Characteristic = 0.92 Burns


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Acute Physiology and Chronic Health



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ANZROD

Michael

65 yrs

83kg 174cm

Sepsis Is your ICU any good?

Is your ICU any good?

Observed DeathsPredicted Deaths=Standardised

Mortality Ratio

Michael

65 yrs

83kg 174cm

Sepsis

Is your ICU any good?0.0

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More deaths than predicted

Less deaths than predicted

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atioMichael

65 yrs

83kg 174cm

Sepsis



26th April 2026


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Declining Mortality for Sepsis & Septic Shock in ANZ ICUs

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Declining Mortality for Sepsis & Septic Shock in ANZ ICUs26th April 2026

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Declining Mortality for Sepsis & Septic Shock in ANZ ICUs

Predictions are important. They tell us where are now and where we could be in the future.

Thank you@IntensiveDave

Calibration ValidationDiscrimination

Pilcher, David — Prediction in Critical Care: Science, Art or Foolishness?

Health & Medicine

Transcript of Pilcher, David — Prediction in Critical Care: Science, Art or Foolishness?